ChUMP Week 07

[CHONGS]

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

#	Team	Adj Off Eff	Off Drives	Adj Def Eff	Def Drives	Δ Eff
1	Florida State	4.37	11.8	1.17	11.4	3.2
2	Baylor	4.33	14.6	1.52	15.	2.81
3	Oregon	3.95	14.33	1.21	14.67	2.73
4	Alabama	3.38	11.67	0.91	11.5	2.47
5	Louisville	3.53	10.67	1.11	10.83	2.43
6	Washington	3.33	11.83	1.08	12.	2.25
7	UCLA	3.35	12.8	1.15	13.6	2.2
8	Ohio State	3.78	12.67	1.58	12.33	2.2
9	Miami (Florida)	3.7	13.	1.51	13.6	2.18
10	LSU	3.79	10.5	1.67	11.57	2.12
11	Missouri	3.5	12.67	1.47	13.	2.03
12	Wisconsin	3.02	12.33	1.04	12.67	1.98
13	Stanford	3.36	11.67	1.54	11.83	1.82
14	Clemson	2.95	14.33	1.28	14.33	1.67
15	Auburn	2.95	12.67	1.29	12.5	1.65
16	Georgia	3.61	12.5	1.99	12.5	1.62
17	Florida	2.36	10.33	0.84	10.5	1.52
18	Nebraska	3.21	12.83	1.8	12.83	1.4
19	UCF	3.05	10.8	1.65	11.4	1.39
20	South Carolina	3.33	10.67	1.96	10.	1.37
21	Michigan	3.27	13.33	1.9	13.17	1.36
22	Oklahoma State	2.84	13.6	1.49	13.6	1.35
23	BYU	2.33	15.17	1.03	15.33	1.31
24	Mississippi State	2.97	11.17	1.7	11.5	1.27
25	Oklahoma	2.75	12.5	1.53	12.17	1.22

                                                                                                                                                         

#	Team	Adj Off Eff	Off Drives	Adj Def Eff	Def Drives	Δ Eff
2	Baylor	4.33	14.6	1.52	15.	2.81
22	Oklahoma State	2.84	13.6	1.49	13.6	1.35
25	Oklahoma	2.75	12.5	1.53	12.17	1.22
33	Texas Tech	2.68	15.67	1.67	15.5	1.01
43	Kansas State	2.72	11.5	1.95	11.67	0.77
58	TCU	2.16	14.	1.76	13.83	0.4
65	West Virginia	1.88	14.5	1.68	14.5	0.2
67	Texas	2.32	13.33	2.13	13.33	0.19
72	Iowa State	2.35	13.6	2.3	13.2	0.05
87	Kansas	1.58	14.4	1.86	14.4	-0.28

The cats are still sitting in the middle.  Of note: we have the third worst defense in the league which is hidden by having the slowest pace of play in the B12.  I would argue we likely have the second worst as UT has drastically improved in defense eff since the start of the year (which is killing them in ChUMP).

[CHONGS]

NEXT WEEK PREVIEW:

Using the current stats:

West Virginia   22
Kansas State   36

[chemhawk]

can we get an updated KSU version that's only #TEAMLIFE?

[steve dave]

NEXT WEEK PREVIEW:

Using the current stats:

West Virginia   22
Kansas State   36

 

[CHONGS]

some interesting infographics:



This breaks down the rankings (into groups of ~ 10) by conference.  For example the Big12 has 1 team ranked between 1-9 while the Pac 12 has 3.

Avg rank by conference:
                                               

Conference	Avg Rank
SEC	34
Pac 12	39
Big Ten	40
ACC	46
Big 12	47
American	65
Independent	82
MWC	83
CUSA	90
MAC	92
Sun Belt	94

Similar to the above graphic, but displaying avg possesions.

Avg number of possessions by conference:
                                               

Conference	Avg Rank
Big 12	13.8
Pac 12	13.3
MWC	13.3
CUSA	13.
Big Ten	12.9
ACC	12.9
Sun Belt	12.8
American	12.6
MAC	12.1
Independent	12.1
SEC	11.5

And for offensive efficiency

                                               

Conference	Avg Off E
SEC	3.01
Pac 12	2.85
Big Ten	2.82
ACC	2.6
Big 12	2.56
American	2.28
MWC	2.24
Independent	1.95
CUSA	1.89
Sun Belt	1.88
MAC	1.82

And by defensive efficiency...

                                               

Conference	Avg Def E
ACC	1.75
Pac 12	1.78
Big 12	1.79
SEC	1.84
Big Ten	1.92
American	2.
Independent	2.41
MWC	2.46
CUSA	2.48
MAC	2.55
Sun Belt	2.6

 

[DQ12]

crazy stuff chings!  i'm glad me and ChUMP are in total agreement re. Baylor.

 

[Pete]

Guys, we could maybe beat OU. 

[wetwillie]

Guys, we could maybe beat OU. 

If they trot out Blake Bell we won't just beat them, will crush them.

[DQ12]

ChUMP seems to have us going bowling.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Some strange scores still getting kicked out by the ChUMP... IE: F$U vs Clemson, All-barn vs aggy, Washington vs ASU, BYU vs Houston, and UCLA vs Stanford

On another note...

Like yours, most math models I've seen have us going either 5-1 or 6-0 but the loss is on the road to Tech, rather than to ou at home.

[CHONGS]

Some strange scores still getting kicked out by the ChUMP... IE: F$U vs Clemson, All-barn vs aggy, Washington vs ASU, BYU vs Houston, and UCLA vs Stanford

On another note...

Like yours, most math models I've seen have us going either 5-1 or 6-0 but the loss is on the road to Tech, rather than to ou at home.

F$U vs Clemson

not too bad on this one

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Some strange scores still getting kicked out by the ChUMP... IE: F$U vs Clemson, All-barn vs aggy, Washington vs ASU, BYU vs Houston, and UCLA vs Stanford

On another note...

Like yours, most math models I've seen have us going either 5-1 or 6-0 but the loss is on the road to Tech, rather than to ou at home.

F$U vs Clemson

not too bad on this one

Good call, brother. 

Has been interesting to compare game scores across ChUMP, Massey, and The512's algorithm.