More advanced tempo free stats?

[kso_FAN]

http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=6259

http://www.hickory-high.com/?page_id=6154

 

[steve dave]

the fact that the website name is hickory-high.com makes me want to punch it in the face

[michigancat]

Didn't read in detail, but a quick glance makes it seem like he just wanted to create a stat to create a stat.

[kougar24]

the fact that the website name is hickory-high.com makes me want to punch it in the face

yes, confirmed.

[kso_FAN]

Didn't read in detail, but a quick glance makes it seem like he just wanted to create a stat to create a stat.

I skimmed it, and its more for the NBA. And it would be nearly impossible to compile the data for college basketball with 345 teams or whatever.

Not all shots are created equal. A layup is much more likely to go in than a long jump shot. A three-pointer is also less likely to go in than a layup, but if it does go in it earns an extra point. All these trade-offs can be measured numerically. I used statistics from NBA.com and looked at every shot, made and missed, going back to the 2000-2001 season. The NBA groups those shots into five locations – Restricted Area, In The Paint (Non-RA), Mid-Range, Corner 3, Above The Break 3. By calculating the total number of points scored on shots from each location and dividing it by the number of attempts we arrive at an expected value for shots from each location. Here are those averages:

Restricted Area –  1.183
In The Paint (Non-RA) – 0.793
Mid-Range – 0.788
Corner 3 – 1.157
Above The Break 3 – 1.048
For my evaluation I also included free throws. The basketball stats community has agreed on 0.44 as the standard modifier for calculating shooting fouls from total free throw attempts. That means that multiplying 0.44 by a player or team’s  total free throw attempts will give you a very close approximation of the number of times they went to the free throw line for two shots. I also calculated the average value of a trip to the free throw line for two shots as 1.511.

With those expected values we can calculate a player or team’s Expected Points Per Shot. We multiple their total attempts from each area by the expected value of shots from that area. We add that total to the totals from all other areas. We then divide that total by all of a player or team’s shot attempts, including the calculated trips to the free throw line. The result is Expected Points Per Shot.

It’s important to remember that this is a measure of the quality of a player or team’s shot selection. Players or teams who take a lot of easy shots like layups or corner three-pointers will have a higher value. However, players and teams under and over-perform league averages all the time. For that reason I compare Expected Points Per Shot to Actual Points Per Shot. Calculating the difference between the two lets us see who’s shooting accuracy is better or worse than we would expect.

[michigancat]

I know I kind of sound like Mike DeCoursey, but what's wrong with efg?

[kso_FAN]

I know I kind of sound like Mike DeCoursey, but what's wrong with efg?

I think NBA advanced guys are sort of freaks. I mean all of us advanced guys are freaks, but those NBA guys take it to another level. Of course, with fewer teams and more metrics available, I can see how they'd go a bit crazy.

[michigancat]

I know I kind of sound like Mike DeCoursey, but what's wrong with efg?

I think NBA advanced guys are sort of freaks. I mean all of us advanced guys are freaks, but those NBA guys take it to another level. Of course, with fewer teams and more metrics available, I can see how they'd go a bit crazy.

Yeah, I just don't think what he was coming up with was particularly useful. I love most of the crazy NBA guys.

[MakeItRain]

I know I kind of sound like Mike DeCoursey, but what's wrong with efg?

I think NBA advanced guys are sort of freaks. I mean all of us advanced guys are freaks, but those NBA guys take it to another level. Of course, with fewer teams and more metrics available, I can see how they'd go a bit crazy.

Yeah, I just don't think what he was coming up with was particularly useful. I love most of the crazy NBA guys.

Have you guys heard of this system that some teams use that have iso cameras on individual players and track things like miles run during a game and stuff like that?

[michigancat]

I know I kind of sound like Mike DeCoursey, but what's wrong with efg?

I think NBA advanced guys are sort of freaks. I mean all of us advanced guys are freaks, but those NBA guys take it to another level. Of course, with fewer teams and more metrics available, I can see how they'd go a bit crazy.

Yeah, I just don't think what he was coming up with was particularly useful. I love most of the crazy NBA guys.

Have you guys heard of this system that some teams use that have iso cameras on individual players and track things like miles run during a game and stuff like that?

no, sounds amazing though.

[ednksu]

I know I kind of sound like Mike DeCoursey, but what's wrong with efg?

I think NBA advanced guys are sort of freaks. I mean all of us advanced guys are freaks, but those NBA guys take it to another level. Of course, with fewer teams and more metrics available, I can see how they'd go a bit crazy.

Yeah, I just don't think what he was coming up with was particularly useful. I love most of the crazy NBA guys.

Have you guys heard of this system that some teams use that have iso cameras on individual players and track things like miles run during a game and stuff like that?

Like the biometric tracking systems the OTC was using for the Olympians?

[kougar24]

I know I kind of sound like Mike DeCoursey, but what's wrong with efg?

I think NBA advanced guys are sort of freaks. I mean all of us advanced guys are freaks, but those NBA guys take it to another level. Of course, with fewer teams and more metrics available, I can see how they'd go a bit crazy.

Yeah, I just don't think what he was coming up with was particularly useful. I love most of the crazy NBA guys.

Have you guys heard of this system that some teams use that have iso cameras on individual players and track things like miles run during a game and stuff like that?

Gruds would lead the nation in miles per game.

Spradling would be dead last in points per mile.

[EMAWzified]

SD lives such a rage-filled life. It it wasn't for the fighting you outlet during football I shudder of the consequences.

[MakeItRain]

I know I kind of sound like Mike DeCoursey, but what's wrong with efg?

I think NBA advanced guys are sort of freaks. I mean all of us advanced guys are freaks, but those NBA guys take it to another level. Of course, with fewer teams and more metrics available, I can see how they'd go a bit crazy.

Yeah, I just don't think what he was coming up with was particularly useful. I love most of the crazy NBA guys.

Have you guys heard of this system that some teams use that have iso cameras on individual players and track things like miles run during a game and stuff like that?

no, sounds amazing though.

called SportVU, there are a pretty good amount of articles, here's a video and an article

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:8906437
http://www.nba.com/timberwolves/#/story/news/sportvu-inside-look-part-ii

[kso_FAN]

ESPN with a couple good articles on ADV stats: http://espn.go.com/ncb/notebook/_/page/backtothebasket130225/back-basket-weekly-look-college-basketball

And Donovan!

Like a team possessed
Billy Donovan's Gators focus on DER more than any other metric
Originally Published: February 19, 2013
By Eddie Matz | ESPN The Magazine
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Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images
Kenny Boynton and the Gators harass SEC teams into shooting just 40.8 percent on two-pointers.
This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's March 4 Analytics issue. Subscribe today!

IT'S LATE JANUARY in Gainesville, Fla., and Billy Donovan is boiling. "You are killing our defense," says the Florida coach as senior guard Mike Rosario takes a seat on the bench with 8:32 left in the first half against South Carolina. Moments earlier Rosario -- who poured in 10 points in the first 10 minutes -- suffered a momentary defensive lapse that resulted in A) his man draining a wide-open 17-footer and B) Donovan yanking him. Just like that, Florida's lead was trimmed to ... wait for it ... 21-6.

TERMS TO KNOW
Defensive Efficiency Rating   Points allowed per possession.
Offensive Efficiency Rating   Points scored per possession.
Adjusted DER   Considers opponent strength, locations of games and when they're played.
Defensive Rebound Rate   Percentage of opponents' missed shots a team gets.
Block Rate   Percentage of two-point attempts a player swats.
Possessions   FGA - OR + TO + (0.475 x FTA) calculated for each team in a game then divided by two.
Tempo   A team's total possessions divided by minutes and adjusted for schedule.
If defense wins championships, we might as well just skip the whole March Madness exercise and give Florida the trophy right now. Sure, the AP pollsters have been busy crushing on Indiana and Duke, which had combined to hold the No. 1 spot in 14 of 16 weeks as of Feb. 18. But the cold hardwood truth is that one of the scariest squads in the land is this Gators group that had made only four top-five appearances: a shoe-squeaking, double-teaming, jersey-drenching swarm that asphyxiates opposing offenses and measures its success not just by the scoreboard but by something called DER.


For those of you still in the dark about basketball's next-level revolution, that stands for Defensive Efficiency Rating. And when it comes to advanced metrics in college hoops, efficiency is all the rage. To understand why, consider North Carolina last season: The Tar Heels made it to the Elite Eight. They finished 170th among D1 teams in scoring defense, allowing 67.1 points per game. But what that stat failed to account for is that UNC averaged 72.8 possessions per game, the ninth-fastest tempo in the country. Crunching the pace-adjusted numbers reveals that the Heels gave up a paltry 92.2 points per 100 possessions (or .922 points per possession). When adjusted based on schedule, that figure dips to 88.6 (.886 ppp), according to KenPom.com, good for 11th in D1.

In other words, DER is the true barometer of stinginess, and if the 2012 Final Four is any indication, stinginess is the true barometer of a title contender. Not one of last year's Final Four squads -- Kentucky, Kansas, Louisville or Ohio State -- finished in the top 15 in plain old scoring D, but each ranked among the top 10 in adjusted DER, according to KenPom.com. This was not lost on Donovan, whose Gators fell to Louisville in the Elite Eight; he's painfully aware that his team's adjusted DER (.959 ppp, tied for 71st) held the Gators back. "I've been a big believer in advanced metrics," says the 47-year-old coach, who is in his 17th season at Florida. "But I had never discussed it with my players."

• Enlarge

Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports
Saying Billy Donovan talks about DER is like saying Jim Cantore talks about the weather.
That changed after his staff analyzed those Final Four numbers in the offseason. Now saying Donovan talks to his team about DER is like saying Jim Cantore talks to people about the weather. The metric is so important to the coach that he assigned two members of his support staff, Mark Daigneault and Oliver Winterbone, to keep a running tally of efficiency numbers from the bench (Winterbone does offense, Daigneault defense). On the white dry-erase board in the Gators' locker room, where there used to be only five halftime stats scribbled in blue marker, there are now seven, thanks to the coach's insistence that OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating) and DER be included. At halftime of that Gamecocks game, Florida's DER was a microscopic .300 ppp.

DER has even become a measuring stick in practice. Instead of rewarding his team for three stops in a row (traditional coaching SOP), Donovan will give the offense six possessions and mandate that the defense not allow six points, meaning its DER must be less than one. "It's about trying to get our guys to understand the mentality of moving from one play to the next," says Donovan. "Let's say you've given up three points in five possessions. That's okay. But now you can't allow a three on that last one. All of the sudden, you're simulating a real endgame situation."

Donovan also sets real stakes: If the players on defense succeed, they earn the right to go to offense. If not, they have to run -- and play D for another six possessions. "It's aggravating," says senior guard Kenny Boynton. "So you gotta come together as a team and make a stop."


Josue Evilla
The Gators fell from No. 2 to No. 7 in the AP poll on Feb. 11, but they still were dominating the top 10 in adjusted DER.
It's a lesson Donovan struggled to get across before this season. The last time Florida finished higher than 35th for adjusted DER was 2006-07, when the team was 12th and won a second straight national title. In the five seasons since, the Gators have had two NIT berths, one NCAA first-round loss and two Elite Eight runs. That's why this season's focus has been different, with a capital D.

Consider these three consecutive possessions late in the first half against the Gamecocks: With 3:22 left, off a missed Florida free throw, the Gators hustle back into Lycra-tight man-to-man. Every cut and every pass is challenged, as if the game hangs in the balance. (Keep in mind UF leads 30-8.) Thirty-five seconds later, Boynton lunges at guard Eric Smith, who is forced to launch a 21-foot air ball at the buzzer. Shot-clock violation.

After they make a free throw, the Gators stretch the Lycra with full-court pressure. Junior forward Will Yeguete, rocking an extra-tall frohawk, resembles a marlin but attacks like a hammerhead, darting from sideline to sideline to form a double-team with junior guard Scottie Wilbekin, then Boynton, then Wilbekin again. The third trap forces guard oscar Ellington into an ill-advised crosscourt pass. Rosario, playing safety, reads it perfectly and closes just in time to knock the ball off Smith and out of bounds. Florida possession.

On the other end, junior center Patric Young mishandles a post feed, allowing South Carolina to push a three-on-two break. Smith drives the right side of the lane, poised for a rare easy bucket against a backpedaling Boynton. But trailing is Young, all 6'9", 249 pounds of him. As Smith releases a layup from the low block, Young catapults himself from five or six feet behind the play, tomahawking the ball off the backboard with so much force that it ricochets to midcourt, where Rosario corrals it and goes in for the flush.

The sequence is a microcosm of why Florida had an adjusted DER of .821 ppp through Feb. 18, which was No. 2 in D1 behind Louisville (.813) and ahead of both Indiana (.872, No. 13) and Duke (.890, No. 22). Yes, it's a down year in the SEC, but the Gators aren't just stopping opponents -- they're killing them. In their first 24 games, they held 18 teams under 60 points, and South Carolina to just 36, the Gamecocks' lowest total ever in conference play.

AP voters, meanwhile, remain unimpressed. They dropped Florida from No. 2 to No. 7 on Feb. 11 because of an 80-69 loss at Arkansas, where a key defensive cog, Yeguete, was also lost (he was expected to return from a right knee injury by tourney time). But the Gators (back up to No. 5 in the AP) can point to more predictive computer rankings -- like KenPom.com (No. 1 through Feb. 18) and ESPN's Basketball Power Index (No. 1) -- as proof that their emphasis on DER has made an impact. Donovan's job now is to make sure they don't let up when it counts.

"Our guys know that anything above 0.9, they're not doing a good job," he says, referring to Florida's ppp goal. "If we're talking about trying to advance in the tournament and we're above that, we're kidding ourselves."

Point taken.

[8manpick]

I know I kind of sound like Mike DeCoursey, but what's wrong with efg?

I think NBA advanced guys are sort of freaks. I mean all of us advanced guys are freaks, but those NBA guys take it to another level. Of course, with fewer teams and more metrics available, I can see how they'd go a bit crazy.

Yeah, I just don't think what he was coming up with was particularly useful. I love most of the crazy NBA guys.

Have you guys heard of this system that some teams use that have iso cameras on individual players and track things like miles run during a game and stuff like that?

no, sounds amazing though.

called SportVU, there are a pretty good amount of articles, here's a video and an article

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:8906437
http://www.nba.com/timberwolves/#/story/news/sportvu-inside-look-part-ii

Pretty cool, Grantland has gotten access to some of the early data from it and there's at least one article from a couple weeks back about it.  Really in-depth player stats.