Everyone, get ready for a meltdown. That's right it's that time of year again. Introducing:
Chingon's Efficiency Ratings Now Optimized By Yard Lines
Here is brief summary of the columns:
So what are "net effective points"? Essentially this is how many more (or less) points a team would score (or allow) for a whole game against an average team while taking into account field position. Basically long drives which result in a score count for a bit more than a short drive that results in a score. And an offense is penalized for not scoring on a drive when starting from good field position. For example, an average team will score about a 0.9 points for a drive that starts on the 25 yard line (like after a touch back on kickoff), and an average team will score about 4.3 points when starting a drive from the opponent's 25 yard line. I put actual in quotes because I still give some credit for offense that moves the ball, but doesn't score (that's because in principle in makes it harder for the other offense to score from worse field position). If a team gives up a pick six when starting a drive from the opponents 25 yard line, that will result in about -11 points. If the team makes a FG when starting a drive from the opponents 25 yard line that will result in -1.3 points, and if they miss it results in -2.97.
The adjusted pace gives the average number of offensive (top number) and defensive (bottom number) drives per game.
It's very early in the season and a lot of teams have only played chumps so they have inflated stats. These should correct themselves soon. WVU is a good example of an outlier (that game against LIU was stupid) --- and it's skewed numbers are effecting its opponents like Maryland.
But in good news, coming in at 25 is our KSU Cats, jumping up 28 spots. What is keeping the Cats back is the negative offense, which has cost us about 3 points a game so far. Luckily our defense is stout at -5.39.
In fact, so far only KU and Oklahoma State have worse on offense. But then again, only WVU has a better defense (and that's pretty suspect IMO based on the skew from the LIU game).
Based on these numbers we should comfortably beat Oklahoma State. We have a better offense and a better defense, and even better our strength is directly encountering their weakness.
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