https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/undefeated-cincinnati-college-football-playoff-selection-committee/e0znrzaiuxz61t01r6dlifsg4
Cincinnati has traveled this same path already, winning every regular-season game and the American Athletic Conference championship game in 2020 while dodging COVID-19 stoppages like everyone else. The Bearcats were ranked eighth and placed behind a Florida team that fell three times.
All those words and none of them addressed the fact that Cincinnati is currently in CFP position in the polls and the computer models, they're 4th in the Massey composite.
https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
It's flat dishonest to write an article about this and not point out that Cincinnati's profile is unlike every G5 team before them. They are so astronomically ahead of any predecessor that it isn't fathomable for another G5 to reach #3 in the polls and #4 in the computers.
Any idea if it is likely they maintain that ranking? I don't know how much their conference SOS will hurt them compared to P5 teams.
Based upon previous history and looking at the current top 25, I'd say they still stand a good chance at making it.
SEC: Only Georgia, Alabama, and Kentucky are still in the hunt. Kentucky and Georgia play this weekend with the winner likely being division champ. Alabama already has one loss and has to win out including the CCG to make it in. While a scenario or two exists, the SEC is likely only getting one team in this year.
big 10: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, M-State and Penn State are all still technically in the hunt. Big ten east is simply loaded. Unfortunately for them, they all still have to play each other and so the losses are going to mount up. A scenario exists where two teams get it, but it's very unlikely. big 10 is only getting 1 in this year
Pac: Hahaha
Big XII: Oklahoma and OSU are the only teams with a shot unless Baylor flips a switch and suddenly wins out in convincing fashion, and OSU would need a little help too. Otherwise, BlowU is it unless they lose the CCG.
Remaining teams still technically in the hunt but that can't leapfrog Cincinnati without other teams losing: ND, Coastal, Oregon, Wake Forest, and Arizona State.
So yeah, if I'm Cincinnati and I win out, I like my chances of making the playoff!