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The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: Possible WW3 thread
« on: August 29, 2023, 02:33:57 PM »
From a Mike Martin (https://www.threshedthought.com/) X thread on pretty much this line of thought. He's been pretty levelheaded and clear eyed about the hot portion of the war. I linked it mid thread, you can scroll back to take it from the top.
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1696099500685726183
This seems to be very achievable. As he explains, UA doesn't have to occupy that area, rather force RU to abandon it. Raising a flag on a beach of the Sea of Azov would be an incredible PR victory, but it isn't tactically necessary.
Russia/Putin's only interest is in keeping the grinder going to stalemate, further consolidate contested territory, and try to reboot subversion methods (in UA as well as NATO/West) to isolate and weaken UA from within in order to take another bite sometime down the road.
RU put the winter pause to very effective use building defenses, and have now sacked the strategist behind doing so.
For what they're fighting with (or more accurately without - air support) UA *is* doing well. They're quite able to stand behind the phrase "I am not locked in here with you, rather you are locked in here with me." They seem to be bringing some of their own advanced weapons system online. That's another thing - this is a type of warfare not seen before, so there is a lot of educated guessing going on.
It is simply not in Putin's persona to end the war now. It's his magnum opus, and he can't make himself walk away from it. His best immediate option is stalemate, but even then, he needs the hot war to cool off a bit in order to stay politically and biologically viable.
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1696099500685726183
This seems to be very achievable. As he explains, UA doesn't have to occupy that area, rather force RU to abandon it. Raising a flag on a beach of the Sea of Azov would be an incredible PR victory, but it isn't tactically necessary.
Russia/Putin's only interest is in keeping the grinder going to stalemate, further consolidate contested territory, and try to reboot subversion methods (in UA as well as NATO/West) to isolate and weaken UA from within in order to take another bite sometime down the road.
RU put the winter pause to very effective use building defenses, and have now sacked the strategist behind doing so.
For what they're fighting with (or more accurately without - air support) UA *is* doing well. They're quite able to stand behind the phrase "I am not locked in here with you, rather you are locked in here with me." They seem to be bringing some of their own advanced weapons system online. That's another thing - this is a type of warfare not seen before, so there is a lot of educated guessing going on.
It is simply not in Putin's persona to end the war now. It's his magnum opus, and he can't make himself walk away from it. His best immediate option is stalemate, but even then, he needs the hot war to cool off a bit in order to stay politically and biologically viable.
