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Messages - Justwin

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1
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« on: November 19, 2020, 09:30:16 PM »
Only fair thing to do is have another vote

This was obvious on November 2.

2

I don't know what exact evidence you're looking for. Isn't it obvious that vaccinating the groups of people who have the greatest percentage of deaths the best way to prevent more deaths?

It's only obvious if you assume the likelihood of being infected and the number of people an infected person transmits the virus to are the same for all age groups (or that they are lower for younger age groups).  I would tend to think both the likelihood of being infected and the number of people an infected person transmits the virus to are higher for younger age groups.  This would allow for vaccinating younger people first to save more lives.  It just depends on the relative size of the infection and transmission rates compared to the mortality rates.

3
Sys is right

I thought the people disagreeing with him were just kidding. Not wanting the elderly and those with comprising heath issues to get the vaccine first is just as ghoulish as justwin's kill the weak for the greater good talking point that kicked this pandemic off.

Sys may be right about what the public is willing to accept, but you're not necessarily going to get the best bang for your buck by vaccinating the old and those with comorbidities first.  It is quite possible you'll get a better bang for your buck by vaccinating those most likely to be spreaders.  Also, if you vaccinate younger people first, you'll probably be able to open more businesses sooner.

The idea that having comorbidities, that are a result of your own lifestyle choices, gets you privileged access to the vaccine is not uncontroversial to everyone.

My talking point about weighing the economic impacts is not ghoulish, but is rational.  There are all kinds of people, including Peter Singer, that were discussing these kinds of issues.  Your attempt to shut down the debate by characterizing it that way is the ghoulish behavior.  It's quite possible that the economic consequences of shutting down were worth the benefits, but it doesn't just immediately follow that it is the case because some people may die.

A couple of things, most importantly is most comotbidities aren't a result of lifestyle choices.

The people that you want to vaccinate first, people most likely to be spreaders, is the segment of the population least likely to get the vaccine. Old people spend money too and are much more likely to get the vaccine.

You want to seemingly punish people with comorbidities and the elderly, but reward people with the greatest means to sit home for a couple of months while continuing to contribute to the economy.

You want the economy helped, let the government do that, not science. A stimulus will keep people going for two more quarters, a stimulus won't keep our most vulnerable citizens alive.

Never said all comorbidities were a result of lifestyle choices.

If your goal is saving as many lives as possible, it's not a slam dunk that vaccinating older people first is the way to go.  Do you have evidence that it is?  It's certainly possible, but it's also possible that's not the way to maximize lives saved.  If the evidence shows vaccinating younger people first would save more lives, then that should be the way we should proceed.

4
Sys is right

I thought the people disagreeing with him were just kidding. Not wanting the elderly and those with comprising heath issues to get the vaccine first is just as ghoulish as justwin's kill the weak for the greater good talking point that kicked this pandemic off.

Sys may be right about what the public is willing to accept, but you're not necessarily going to get the best bang for your buck by vaccinating the old and those with comorbidities first.  It is quite possible you'll get a better bang for your buck by vaccinating those most likely to be spreaders.  Also, if you vaccinate younger people first, you'll probably be able to open more businesses sooner.

The idea that having comorbidities, that are a result of your own lifestyle choices, gets you privileged access to the vaccine is not uncontroversial to everyone.

My talking point about weighing the economic impacts is not ghoulish, but is rational.  There are all kinds of people, including Peter Singer, that were discussing these kinds of issues.  Your attempt to shut down the debate by characterizing it that way is the ghoulish behavior.  It's quite possible that the economic consequences of shutting down were worth the benefits, but it doesn't just immediately follow that it is the case because some people may die.

5
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: political hobbyist thread
« on: November 09, 2020, 09:35:23 PM »
https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/

Quote
As figure 1 illustrates, 45% of Republicans with degrees, compared to 23% of Democrats with degrees, said they feared that their careers could be at risk if their views became known.

...

According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’

The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right.

6
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« on: November 03, 2020, 11:56:40 AM »
On this election day, I sit and ponder, what is the one compelling argument that Donald J Trump has shown the past 4 years or says he will do over the next 4 that compels any rational voter to say "yes, I choose him".

I can legit every election see something in another candidate that I think, yeah okay I can see that point, not important to me or my point of view but it is for that voter, got it.  I can't see one thing in Trump.  It drives me mad because I know not every person voting Trump is a mindless "I vote for R only" voter.

Judges.

7
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: Economics Of The Election
« on: October 22, 2020, 10:10:04 PM »
also I apologize for not remembering but which one of you was the death opportunity cost strong econ guy out of the gates on Covid? would like to revisit all that again (your takes could have possibly owned, I don't remember) but those were good talks.

An article I saw recently said COVID was responsible for 2.5 million years of life lost.  That's the equivalent of $250-$350 billion.

If you think all of the shutdowns prevented some multiple of that in years of lives lost, then you might think all of the shutdowns were worth it.  There's almost no way you can convince me all of Kansas should have been shut down in March-May.  Everything regarding COVID-19 is much worse in Kansas now than it was in April, yet we aren't shutting anything down now.

8
Posted in another thread but KU med docs have repeatedly stated that infections as a result of school openings/other large events aren't typically known for 6-8 weeks due to the speed of infection cycle.

No idea when the first schools started reopening but I don't think most have been open for more than a few weeks.

Riley County and Rock Creek have been in session since August 20.  Manhattan has been in session since August 26.  Wamego started September 2-3.  K-State has been in session since August 17.

9
I mean I get homeboys frustration, I've had at least one kid home almost every day since school started, but the time when the pandemic is trending worse than it ever has probably isn't the time to ramp up more school.

It's not trending worse than it ever has in Riley County.  Moreover, Riley County schools, Rock Creek and Wamego are not having a lot of issues with five day a week school.

10
Melanie is still sick

Calling her Melanie is the same as mispronouncing Kamala.
True, but could have been a phone autocorrect

Absolutely.

11
Melanie is still sick

Calling her Melanie is the same as mispronouncing Kamala.

12
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: Re: Economics Of The Election
« on: October 08, 2020, 11:20:03 PM »
can we mod this dumb stuff and go back to speculating whether I will get like $4,000 for my brood from Trump or like $10,000 for my brood from Biden?

Can you tell me more about $10,000 for your brood from Biden?  I currently get $8000 for my brood from Trump.

13
OMG.... lol


?s=21


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

eff Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, but that second tweet is absolutely factually accurate.

That's the whole point.

14
what is everyone doing with there kids this fall, send them to in person school, or home schooling?  Was planning on doing in school, because i can't get anything done with kids here during the day WFH, but starting to wonder if should switch to home school.  School isn't starting until Sep 8th, so a lot could change between now and then, they may not give us the choice by then who knows.

Around here I know some parents are looking to transfer from USD 383 (Manhattan/Ogden) to either USD 378 (Riley County) or USD 323 (Rock Creek) if they can.  Those two school districts are going 5 days a week in person whereas USD 383 is only two days a week for a kid to start.

what's the plan for when those districts go to hybrid or online only mid-year? I also thought about sending my kids to somewhere like KS but this kind of stopped me before it became the inevitable pain it was gonna be.

I honestly don't know if those parents think that will happen.  At the same time, I also think they're at the point where if they can get the kids out of the house 5 days a week for a few weeks or a couple months, it will be worth it to them.  If those other districts go online or hybrid at some point, I'm sure 383 will already be there.  In that case, they won't be worse off and will have gotten some time where the kids are in school 5 days a week.

We homeschool our kids so we watch all of the debate around kids in school with a detached interest and a gratefulness that we are not experiencing all of the indecision and anxiety others are feeling.  I have had some parents ask how much my wife would charge to homeschool their kids.  My wife does have a degree in elementary education, so she does have some qualifications.

15
what is everyone doing with there kids this fall, send them to in person school, or home schooling?  Was planning on doing in school, because i can't get anything done with kids here during the day WFH, but starting to wonder if should switch to home school.  School isn't starting until Sep 8th, so a lot could change between now and then, they may not give us the choice by then who knows.

Around here I know some parents are looking to transfer from USD 383 (Manhattan/Ogden) to either USD 378 (Riley County) or USD 323 (Rock Creek) if they can.  Those two school districts are going 5 days a week in person whereas USD 383 is only two days a week for a kid to start.

16
So we're to the point where owning the bloggers is more important than the media's need to cover stories without the cops scouring their footage and notes to find "criminals." There's no Pandora's Box potential here at all. Trim, you used to be a prosecutor, right?

https://www.poynter.org/reporting-editing/2020/seattle-times-judge-subpoena-protest-police/

All of the quotes that journalism school student put together in your link and that it was presented that way at all in the link, are more examples of the things I'm lol'n at.

Those quotes are from three different attorneys and none from journalists. Maybe move this to the prosecutors who will let the cops do whatever they want despite the pleas from constitutionalists thread?

Maybe four!  Not sure about Frank.

Quote
Madeline Lamo, a media litigation fellow for the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press

Frank LoMonte, the director for the Brechner Center for Freedom of Information at the University of Florida

Eric Stahl, the attorney representing the five news outlets

NPPA general counsel Mickey Osterreicher

And it's quite an argument they've presented to constituent media types.  But in the real world and particularly in court, it's lol ridiculous, the court part being especially relevant to attorneys.

So how do you propose this goes down?

Cops: Hey Seattle media, we want to solve some crimes and our investigation has hit a snag, give us your video and photos.
Times, KIRO, KING, KOMO: uh, isn't there a shield law that protects us from giving that to you?
Cops: We're the cops, rough ridin' give it to us.
Media: uh wait. Lawyers, do we have to do this
Media Attorneys: sure why not, give it to them, give them whatever they need, it should be fine, the cops won't overreach at all.

You sure seem to think the First Amendment is important.

17
Any other student wouldn't have the university taking a cut of what they earned using their own name or image.

Are you saying that in order to profit from their likeness, they have to give a percentage to the university?

Regardless, from a tax standpoint, they should be taxed on earnings they get from their likeness, name, image, etc.  They should be taxed on scholarships amounts that go towards things other than tuition, fees and books.  They should not be taxed on scholarship amounts that go towards tuition, fees and books.  This is how it is for any other student.

No what I'm saying is that under the model that's likely to be used, most of what students will get through NIL will be filtered through the universities because players don't/won't have licensing rights. Apparel and memorabilia will be sold thought the schools licensing deal, meaning the players won't have control over how they are licenced or what their cut is. The universities would be getting the money and simply giving the players the cut they deserve. In this instance the university would be taxed, not the player, not unless you think double taxes should be applied to the same cut of money.

If the player uses NIL to give lessons then they would be an independent contactor, and would be taxed as much as they are willing to pay, identical to the student getting paid to tutor a middle school algebra student.

A player getting paid for an endorsement, like the independent contactor, would be responsible for paying their own taxes on what they earn. An endorser isn't paid and taxed like an employee because they aren't an employee.

So to wrap this up, to do what LN proposed would require the country to change its tax code, to the detriment of anyone who is an independent contactor.

I'm not really sure what you're envisioning, but anything the university passed on to the student athlete would not be taxed at the university level.  That income would be taxed at the individual level.    Universities, though, in general, are not being taxed so I'm not even sure what you're referring to in terms of a university being taxed.

So all in all, student athletes should be taxed like any other student.  Not more and not less.  Glad we agree.

Let me simplify this for you. Student-Athletes potentially getting money from NIL aren't earning income from the university because they would not be university employees, Jesus rough ridin' christ, it isn't rocket science. Before you reply look up the definition of the word income, then brush up on the various NIL proposals and tell me if any of them talk about athletes becoming university employees.

You are the one that started talking about universities taking a cut and double taxation, not me.  My response to LickNeckey was pretty simple in stating that student athletes should not be treated differently than other students when it comes to scholarships and taxation.  Whatever they receive that is above tuition, fees and books should be taxed.  Universities are not going to be paying taxes on anything before they distribute it to student athletes, so they need to pay taxes on it.  The federal government or the IRS may need to clarify if this counts as earned income and needs to be subject to self-employment taxes.  My sense is that it will be self-employment income, so student athletes will owe 15.3% to the federal government at a minimum.  Whether or not they owe individual income taxes obviously will depend on whether their total income is higher than the standard deduction.

The income generated on their own from blogs, YouTube channels, etc. is clearly self-employment income as you stated.  As a note on this, student athletes are already allowed to give lessons and coach youth sports.  The key is that it cannot be an opportunity not available to a general student.  Additionally, it cannot be at above-market rates.  The only change now is that they can charge above market rates.  A caveat on this is that a high school student athlete cannot be paid to give lessons and coach a kid before they go to a school as far as I am aware.  I don't know if the new rules change this or not.

18
Any other student wouldn't have the university taking a cut of what they earned using their own name or image.

Are you saying that in order to profit from their likeness, they have to give a percentage to the university?

Regardless, from a tax standpoint, they should be taxed on earnings they get from their likeness, name, image, etc.  They should be taxed on scholarships amounts that go towards things other than tuition, fees and books.  They should not be taxed on scholarship amounts that go towards tuition, fees and books.  This is how it is for any other student.

No what I'm saying is that under the model that's likely to be used, most of what students will get through NIL will be filtered through the universities because players don't/won't have licensing rights. Apparel and memorabilia will be sold thought the schools licensing deal, meaning the players won't have control over how they are licenced or what their cut is. The universities would be getting the money and simply giving the players the cut they deserve. In this instance the university would be taxed, not the player, not unless you think double taxes should be applied to the same cut of money.

If the player uses NIL to give lessons then they would be an independent contactor, and would be taxed as much as they are willing to pay, identical to the student getting paid to tutor a middle school algebra student.

A player getting paid for an endorsement, like the independent contactor, would be responsible for paying their own taxes on what they earn. An endorser isn't paid and taxed like an employee because they aren't an employee.

So to wrap this up, to do what LN proposed would require the country to change its tax code, to the detriment of anyone who is an independent contactor.

I'm not really sure what you're envisioning, but anything the university passed on to the student athlete would not be taxed at the university level.  That income would be taxed at the individual level.    Universities, though, in general, are not being taxed so I'm not even sure what you're referring to in terms of a university being taxed.

So all in all, student athletes should be taxed like any other student.  Not more and not less.  Glad we agree.

19
Any other student wouldn't have the university taking a cut of what they earned using their own name or image.

Are you saying that in order to profit from their likeness, they have to give a percentage to the university?

Regardless, from a tax standpoint, they should be taxed on earnings they get from their likeness, name, image, etc.  They should be taxed on scholarships amounts that go towards things other than tuition, fees and books.  They should not be taxed on scholarship amounts that go towards tuition, fees and books.  This is how it is for any other student.

20


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I would not be opposed to having a two tiered system where students can opt in to a system to profit off their likeness and be taxed or stay pure amateur and not be

Why do they need to be taxed? They aren't employees, want to tax college athletes, pay them wages.

They should be taxed as any other student would be taxed.  Not more and not less.

21
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/01/849161820/mobile-phone-data-show-more-americans-are-leaving-their-homes-despite-orders

Quote
Emerging data suggest that though people dramatically altered their habits to stay at home during the first month of America's response to the pandemic, that cooperation has since leveled off and — eventually — decreased. This could point to long-term challenges for state governments asking citizens to cooperate with extended stay-at-home policies.

"Regardless of what the orders say or the governors say, we're seeing the whole country softening up," says Nick Singh, a marketing lead at SafeGraph.

This will obviously continue to trend down as more states open up.  It will be interesting to see how much of a difference there will be in states that are open vs states that are locked down.

22
I am starting to get pretty concerned about Kansas State.
Hearing ten week furloughs for people. Health insurance covered for one month. Something like a $30 million cut.

For which people at K-State?

23
So 50c on this thing is the even money equivalent of -110 in normal sports gambling?

Seems pretty close to that although maybe its closer to -115 in this marketing scheme.


Yeah, I understand there are higher fees, but with acknowledging sports casinos and predictit have their different fee structures, 50c is the equivalent of a sports bet line that’s set as a 50/50 bet (-110), correct?

That everything is couched in terms of pre-result trading (hedging) rather than betting and waiting to see if you win was throwing me off. I just want to bet that america is a trash can.

you can trade in and out of positions because it is a market, but the market closes once the thing happens or the date hits and pays $1.00 to the winners and $0.00 to the losers.

An important difference to me compared to casinos is that you can't hold both the Yes and No positions simultaneously.  This reduces the ability to hedge or take advantage of movements in a market.  Obviously, if my wife and I both have accounts (or if you create two separate accounts), we could get around this rule.

24
Trump Wins
      50c 
+    50c
-__10c_fee___
      90c
-      5c cashout fee
___________
      85c  = 35c profit per share

My understanding is that the 10% on profit would be:

Payout for Trump winning: $1.00
Price paid for Trump winning claim: $0.50
Profit: $0.50
10% of profit: $0.05
5% cashout fee: $0.05 (technically slightly less?)

Take home: $0.90 (technically slightly more)

This may have been what you were clarifying in a later post.

25
The country is very much united on wearing masks. Only a handful of dumbasses refuse to wear them at this point.

You clearly do not live where I live.

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