Messages

1

Kansas State Football / Re: Farmageddon Thread

« on: November 21, 2020, 04:19:51 PM »

Teams are so damn mean to Elder.

Sent from my LG-LS998 using Tapatalk

Yeah, I feel bad for him every time they throw at him or make him make an open field tackle :(

2

Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: November 17, 2020, 09:12:48 AM »

So at what point do all you bitcoin owners feel the need to rebalance your portfolio as bitcoin continues to climb? Most investors are only comfortable putting a certain percentage of total portfolio into crypto. Obviously, as bitcoin continues to increase significantly in price, the distribution of your portfolio starts to become more weighted in bitcoin. Do you sell some off to lock in gains and rebalance or enjoy the ride up?

Ride it up. If Bitcoin doubled in price tomorrow to 35k (and my percent allocation in my portfolio therefore spiked as well), I would still be certain that Bitcoin would provide better returns than nearly any other financial instrument in the medium/long term.

I may sell some at some point in the future, but that will be a response to predicted price action due to euphoric market mania, rather than a desire to decrease my percent exposure. Put another way, if my exposure was 99% today at $17k, I would keep it there because I know a golden bull run is coming. If my exposure was 20% at $250k with signs of a top imminent, I would sell some for cash.

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Kansas State Football / Re: Squawks v Cats 2020 Game talk

« on: October 24, 2020, 11:46:45 AM »

Trotter may legitimately be the worst player in the FBS

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Kansas State Football / Re: Squawks v Cats 2020 Game talk

« on: October 24, 2020, 11:41:33 AM »

DOINK

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Kansas State Football / Re: Squawks v Cats 2020 Game talk

« on: October 24, 2020, 11:23:52 AM »

 Incredibly heady play from elder there

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Kansas State Football / Re: MURDER:CROWS::(GROUP):(POSITION)

« on: October 13, 2020, 11:41:30 PM »

A shitload of transfers

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Kansas State Football / Re: MURDER:CROWS::(GROUP):(POSITION)

« on: October 13, 2020, 02:12:48 AM »

gaggle of punters

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Kansas State Football / Re: Open this thread for TCU Talk

« on: October 10, 2020, 06:40:42 PM »

I guess I wasn't paying attention at the time, why did they keep shitting on kli for taking a timeout with 1 second on the play clock?

I think the announcers were just morons, one of them also thought it was a blatant and obvious targeting lol. I think it was a good timeout to use- especially if you are uncomfortable with your backup qb trying to get a snap off inside 3 seconds of playclock.

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Kansas State Football / Re: Deuce Vaughn Nickname Thread

« on: September 12, 2020, 12:14:41 PM »

Deuce.

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Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: August 29, 2020, 11:25:09 PM »

Engadget: It takes an estimated seven nuclear plants to power our bitcoin mining.

https://www.engadget.com/it-takes-an-estimated-seven-nuclear-plants-to-power-our-bitcoin-mining-212441059.html

Knowing the btc mechanism and intent, sounds pretty secure to me

11

Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: August 14, 2020, 03:51:51 PM »

 

The winklevoss twins talking about Elon musk mining gold on asteroids until gold is worthless is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard an adult try to explain to someone else.

Agreed. And they didn’t really explain bitcoin... still a fun addition to the space imo.

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Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: August 14, 2020, 12:12:27 AM »

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1293993222868369408?s=21

I don’t care if you like portnoy or not, but him getting in on the Bitcoin space is a very fun time

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1294121113786744832?s=21

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Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: August 14, 2020, 12:11:33 AM »

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1293993222868369408?s=21

I don’t care if you like portnoy or not, but him getting in on the Bitcoin space is a very fun time

14

Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: August 01, 2020, 11:45:34 PM »

BTC $12k!!

The next 1.5 years is going to be insane

15

Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: July 28, 2020, 12:16:31 PM »

I say just buy and hodl bby... no need to get cute with your allocation by trying to leverage up

The volatility inherent in bitcoin already gives you an insane asymmetric risk/reward profile basically unheard of in traditional equity markets

But if you can make money with leverage/options, more power to you I guess

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Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: May 13, 2020, 01:10:41 PM »

DaBigTrain, I just went back and read some of the earlier posts in this thread. Are you still bullish on LTC at this point?

I personally hold 85% BTC, 15% ETH. No LTC, but there isn't a real reason for it. Debating adding a little exposure there.

17

Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: May 09, 2020, 09:31:30 PM »

Pretty mind blowing to think of any asset increasing by $10,000 in one day, though I’m sure the idea of BTC increasing by $1000 in a day was insane just a few years ago.

lmao wut


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I’m sure you’ll figure it out SD

18

Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: May 09, 2020, 08:11:56 PM »

Pretty good drop here %wise.

Buying more? I’m debating.

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Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: May 08, 2020, 10:09:25 AM »

I read this a while back and hadn’t posted it anywhere but thought I would share my opinion. During the last big run in Dec 2017 was the first time Bitcoin moved more than $1000 in a single day. That was the peak of the bull run. This time, like what I read a while back will be the first time Bitcoin moves more than $10,000 in a single day. At that point I think we will see the new ATH at the very top.

https://twitter.com/pladizow/status/1220407554636963840?s=21

I knew I had it bookmarked...

Linked tweet discusses similar idea. Pretty mind blowing to think of any asset increasing by $10,000 in one day, though I’m sure the idea of BTC increasing by $1000 in a day was insane just a few years ago.

Great point about it occurring near the top- in the past the bulk of the price gain has happened in only a very short period as the price goes parabolic after a long and slow climb. Timing when to get out is even harder than timing when to get in imo. Makes the idea of a long term hodl very appealing.

20

Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: May 07, 2020, 09:43:55 PM »

We just might break $10k before the halving after all, guys!   

I thought it was supposed to be $100k.

It will be

I’m not even going to start selling even a little of my stack until $100k...

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Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: May 07, 2020, 09:40:55 PM »

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6xdkq15zwNQlpF4hvWvxLr?si=1l0P4TWXSP6UKlj1pi0XcA

Pretty good listen if you are already interested and decently versed in bitcoin and S2F model. Livera is my favorite bitcoin podcaster- and the guest is PlanB of the S2F model as well as Saifedean Ammous, well regarded Austrian economist and author of The Bitcoin Standard, which I recommend to anyone who shows even a tangential interest in bitcoin. PlanB is on Livera podcast 1 or two other times before, worth the listen in those instances too. He finally started pronouncing “scarce” in the American way this time!

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Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: May 07, 2020, 08:03:22 PM »

$10k today... unreal run from $3.8k just 2 months ago.

It’s not even close to being done this cycle.

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Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: May 05, 2020, 12:50:48 PM »

yeah maybe it is

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Essentially Flyertalk / Re: S2F

« on: May 05, 2020, 12:33:42 PM »

: (

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Essentially Flyertalk / Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread

« on: May 05, 2020, 12:16:37 PM »

Hey, what's S2F multiple mean?

DaBigTrain is right in that there is alot of info out there alot better than I can provide, but I'll do my best to give a quick overview.

Stock-to-Flow (S2F) is basically an inverse measure of inflation. With an inflation rate, you are dividing new supply of good by existing supply of good (Flow/Stock). When calculating S2F ratio, simply flip inflation ratio (Stock/Flow). A high S2F basically indicates that the new supply of a good is a smaller fraction of the existing supply, perhaps having less leverage on price.

Higher inflation (low S2F) is seen in things like commodities (corn, beef, oil). Low inflation (high S2F) is seen in gold and eventually bitcoin as halving schedule progresses. Roughly every 4 years the halving event occurs, at which point the regularly issued block subsidies are cut in half for the next ~4 years. Eventually, the total number of bitcoins in supply asymptotically approaches 21 million- I believe around 18 million have been issued to this point.

The basic idea behind the S2F model is that increasing scarcity of BTC will drive the price up. Using historical data, pseudononymous PlanB on twitter has come up with a model which transforms the S2F ratio of bitcoin into a market cap of bitcoin, which can be easily divided into a bitcoin price (with some consideration for lost coins maybe or maybe not counted in stock). Since the BTC S2F is always increasing, it speculates that BTC price will always increase in the long term. The model has an extremely high coefficient of determination, around .99, but many theorize that there is a spurious relationship- lots of advanced statistical math workign to prove cointegration that I don't particularly understand.

Depending on which S2F model is being used, a target price prediction has been made at $55k, $100k, and $288k by Plan B for the next 4 year halving cycle. He inst attempting to predict an exact high price at an exact date, but says that the target price should have printed BTC prices on either side of it.

I don't really believe much in the model because I don't have the statistical background to confirm or debunk, but the leading statistical proponent of the model recently determined that it is probably BS. Whether the model is right or wrong, I do believe in bitcoin medium and long term so its fun to read the stories about it and get hype about the yachts we will buy.

Plan B article 1- $55k
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

Plan B article 2- less about S2F, interesting stuff about bitcoin portfolio sharpe ratios
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107

Plan B article 3- $288k
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12

I cant find where he predicted $100k- might have just been on twitter.