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Kansas State Basketball is hard / Re: Rest of the way - WHAT DO WE HAVE TO DO TO WIN THE BIG 12*
« on: February 21, 2013, 03:03:30 PM »
Here's a simulation of the rest of the Big 12 season using kenpom's ratings.
Team W L Luck Rnk Share Outrt 1Seed EWins
Kansas 10 3 -0.2 10 0.8517 0.5227 0.6728 14.08
Kansas St. 10 3 1.9 35 0.3430 0.0976 0.2067 13.22
Oklahoma St. 9 4 -0.0 16 0.2088 0.0347 0.1087 12.78
Oklahoma 8 5 0.9 46 0.0164 0.0001 0.0053 11.53
Iowa St. 8 5 -0.4 32 0.0191 0.0002 0.0064 11.04
Baylor 7 6 -1.3 41 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 9.615
West Virginia 6 7 0.3 107 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 7.188
Texas 4 9 -1.3 97 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 6.057
Texas Tech 2 11 0.5 247 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3.021
Texas Christian 1 12 -0.5 282 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.464
"Share" column is the probability of winning any share of the title. "Outrt" is the probability of winning the title outright. Ignore "1Seed", I don't have tiebreakers programmed in. "Ewins" is the expected number of wins at the end of the season.
Team W L Luck Rnk Share Outrt 1Seed EWins
Kansas 10 3 -0.2 10 0.8517 0.5227 0.6728 14.08
Kansas St. 10 3 1.9 35 0.3430 0.0976 0.2067 13.22
Oklahoma St. 9 4 -0.0 16 0.2088 0.0347 0.1087 12.78
Oklahoma 8 5 0.9 46 0.0164 0.0001 0.0053 11.53
Iowa St. 8 5 -0.4 32 0.0191 0.0002 0.0064 11.04
Baylor 7 6 -1.3 41 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 9.615
West Virginia 6 7 0.3 107 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 7.188
Texas 4 9 -1.3 97 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 6.057
Texas Tech 2 11 0.5 247 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3.021
Texas Christian 1 12 -0.5 282 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.464
"Share" column is the probability of winning any share of the title. "Outrt" is the probability of winning the title outright. Ignore "1Seed", I don't have tiebreakers programmed in. "Ewins" is the expected number of wins at the end of the season.