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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on January 17, 2021, 01:42:57 PM
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count from worldometers, ends at midnight 3/31.
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is no one voting or is there a problem with the poll functionality?
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It’s too depressing now sys please stop.
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It’s too depressing now sys please stop.
you can choose under 520k.
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It’s too depressing now sys please stop.
I said that after like the 3rd one but sys gonna sys
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Kind of random, but thread adjacent thought; In 1918 the flu took out 675,000 Americans, the majority of which were young and able-bodied or children. That's .654% of the population dead.
For covid death numbers to be as bad proportionately more than 2.16 million would have to perish.
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eff! i screwed this one up. numbers posted should have been through the end of march.
fortunately, not many have voted yet. anyone that has voted can change their vote in the comments due to this management error.
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This is ghoulish and I've never done it, the only reason I'm commenting now is because this seems slightly hypocritical after you got after 'stone for him telling jokes about the hillbilly insurrection.
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End of March? Should hit 580k with no problem. A couple of mitigating factors could be roll out of the chips and the fact that the virus has already burned its path through a lot of nursing homes (all of the nursing homes in the Smallville area have been heavily hit).
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End of March? Should hit 580k with no problem. A couple of mitigating factors could be roll out of the chips and the fact that the virus has already burned its path through a lot of nursing homes (all of the nursing homes in the Smallville area have been heavily hit).
that's what makes it interesting. i think there should be a very pronounced reduction in the death rate by the end of march.
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Kind of random, but thread adjacent thought; In 1918 the flu took out 675,000 Americans, the majority of which were young and able-bodied or children. That's .654% of the population dead.
For covid death numbers to be as bad proportionately more than 2.16 million would have to perish.
It would be really interesting to see a comparison of the number of years of life lost for both pandemics (population adjusted).
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just tonight and tomorrow morning left to vote.
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I’m abstaining.
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People are surprisingly optimistic!
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People are surprisingly optimistic!
a lot in the center bin, but only one vote for less. i voted center bin, but i think lower is more likely than higher.
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431K. 12 states with over 10K deaths. New cases and deaths in Kansas seem to be trending down.
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We’ve passed 450k by the end of January
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We’ve passed 450k by the end of January
i think we're going to see a pretty dramatic reduction in daily deaths in february. if i could adjust my vote down, i would.
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We’ve passed 450k by the end of January
i think we're going to see a pretty dramatic reduction in daily deaths in february. if i could adjust my vote down, i would.
Hope that you are right. Between the most vulnerable getting their chips in the next few weeks and the fact that the virus has taken what it wanted to harvest from a lot of nursing homes, this could be the case.
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Kansas is over 4.1K deaths.
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500K US deaths. 15 US states with >10,000 deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us)
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presumably the last big mile marker we'll hit.
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IDK, the deaths (thankfully) came down a lot this week, and if that trend really holds, that's good, but it just doesn't take all that long for it to add up. I think we end up at 600k (though barely over) sometime near the end of the year.
The good thing, the combo of more vaccines and more people just straight having got it are definitely going to put the fire out pretty quick.
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I think we stop seeing deaths during the summer. Vaccinated people aren't dying.
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I think we stop seeing deaths during the summer. Vaccinated people aren't dying.
:thumbs:
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California now over 50K deaths
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past 520K. 540 - 560 looks like a safe bet at this point
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Might break 600
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Might break 600
7 day moving average is around 2,000 deaths per day so deaths would need to start trending back up for that to happen (I suck at stats but I think that is right).
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past 520K. 540 - 560 looks like a safe bet at this point
yeah, under 540 looks pretty impossible now. i thought deaths would trail off a little faster.
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Might break 600
7 day moving average is around 2,000 deaths per day so deaths would need to start trending back up for that to happen (I suck at stats but I think that is right).
That would be great. So if it stays flat (seemingly worst case) we’re looking at 580+, but not 600
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went over 540k today. we're almost certain to get over 560k before the end of the month. i'm a little surprised at how slowly deaths have come down, especially given that vaccine distribution has surprised to the upside.
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went over 540k today. we're almost certain to get over 560k before the end of the month. i'm a little surprised at how slowly deaths have come down, especially given that vaccine distribution has surprised to the upside.
I thought daily death totals were elevated due to backlogged deaths being added.
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yeah, there's a lag in death reporting, but afaik, there isn't anything about that lag that has recently changed.
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yeah, there's a lag in death reporting, but afaik, there isn't anything about that lag that has recently changed.
There are people who got infected in January that are still hospitalized so the lag in time from infection to death plays a role - probably more than time from death to time that death is reported. Per COVID Tracking Project, we are about to drop under 40K Americans hospitalized. Smallville, KS hospital has not had a positive test in their lab for over a week.
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yeah, there's a lag in death reporting, but afaik, there isn't anything about that lag that has recently changed.
There are people who got infected in January that are still hospitalized so the lag in time from infection to death plays a role - probably more than time from death to time that death is reported. Per COVID Tracking Project, we are about to drop under 40K Americans hospitalized. Smallville, KS hospital has not had a positive test in their lab for over a week.
Yeah, it's sort of the reverse situation when this all started and all the pandemic deniers were making fun of "it has only like 15 people, you idiots!" and then they had to shut up and leave gE forever like a month later when the deaths came by the hundred and then thousands a day, death, is not instant with this disease, and they never could understand that. Realistically the deaths we're seeing are caused by infections at least 2 weeks, but more likely 4-6 weeks ago as you pointed out.
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looks like were going to land in the 560 - 580K slot.
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looks like were going to land in the 560 - 580K slot.
Call it
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congratulations to the 560-580'ers. the majority were too optimistic on this one.
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maybe also a good thread to congratulate italy on joining the six figger club. to :sdeek: at brazil and to wonder that we didn't hear more about eastern europe as they went from a spring success story to a rough ridin' morgue in the fall/winter.
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congratulations to the 560-580'ers. the majority were too optimistic on this one.
:blush:
Gonna take a (tragic) victory lap on this one.
Curious to know what happened in Czech Republic. They were very early adopters of masks and had great numbers last spring.
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congratulations to the 560-580'ers. the majority were too optimistic on this one.
:blush:
Gonna take a (tragic) victory lap on this one.
Curious to know what happened in Czech Republic. They were very early adopters of masks and had great numbers last spring.
They were discussed in another thread. They stopped wearing masks and opened everything up in the summer.
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Can I crap post a stupid take here? If masks produced the same outcomes as the AZ vaccine, I'd be happier today.
I mean that would make masks pretty goddam effective for the price, wouldn't it?
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I was too pessimistic! Pleasantly surprised
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So does this thing hit 600k when it's all said and done? Has to right?
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So does this thing hit 600k when it's all said and done? Has to right?
yes
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18 states with over 10K deaths. Kansas at 5,000 deaths. Brazil closing in on 400K. Jair is not gonna let himself get lapped by DJT in the Covid death race.
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it's amazing how many countries are getting close to having had 1 out of every 500 residents die from covid over the last fourteen months.
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it's amazing how many countries are getting close to having had 1 out of every 500 residents die from covid over the last fourteen months.
Yeah but how many of those people got hit by a train while also having covid?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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it's amazing how many countries are getting close to having had 1 out of every 500 residents die from covid over the last fourteen months.
Yeah but how many of those people got hit by a train while also having covid?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We'll never know because you'll never hear about it from Sleepy Joe and the Fake News lamestream Media
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600,000 US deaths.
7 day average of new cases is 31K - lowest since last June.
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Brazil closing in on 400K. Jair is not gonna let himself get lapped by DJT in the Covid death race.
looks like it's gonna take brazil a lot longer than originally projected to overtake the u.s. in deaths (572k to 643k right now). of course if india would have gotten a good count they'd have put the record out of reach.
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Brazil closing in on 400K. Jair is not gonna let himself get lapped by DJT in the Covid death race.
looks like it's gonna take brazil a lot longer than originally projected to overtake the u.s. in deaths (572k to 643k right now). of course if india would have gotten a good count they'd have put the record out of reach.
AntiVaxx nation wants the title belt so bad. We defy you to come and take it from us, Jair!!
Seriously, what is happening in Central and South America is really bad. Would guess that the numbers are significantly undercounted.
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600,000 US deaths.
7 day average of new cases is 31K - lowest since last June.
Oh man, those carefree pre-Delta, late spring days...
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US passes 650k today per worldometers. Gonna be over 1k daily for a while as the delta wave is reaped.
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good thing we didn't have a poll active this summer. delta would have really mumped with my calculations.
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That's pretty interesting. Would have expected South America to look worse. Will be interesting to see more complete figures about India at some point. Mortality actually going down in Oceania due to the pandemic.
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mexico having a ton of unrecorded surplus deaths fits my anecdotal info.
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mexico having a ton of unrecorded surplus deaths fits my anecdotal info.
Are you at liberty to share the anecdotes?
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mexico having a ton of unrecorded surplus deaths fits my anecdotal info.
Are you at liberty to share the anecdotes?
i think i've shared quite a few over the last year. just a surprisingly (to me) large number of mostly distant relatives and acquaintances of my wife who have been seriously ill and/or died.