goemaw.com
General Discussion => Essentially Flyertalk => Topic started by: steve dave on December 30, 2020, 08:14:48 AM
-
We've talked about all of the stuff I'm going to post below in the covid threads but I wanted a thread for just this stuff because it's fascinating for me to think about.
There's going to be a tremendous amount of scholarship done on this generation of children and how this event effected (affected?) them. That will be interesting to follow. How will it impact them? Guessing we see a widening gap between poor and wealthy districts? How do we close that? What's this generation going to be called? "Lost Year" "Covid"?
We've talked a lot about the WFH and the new normal in the office. It has accelerated what was already happening by a decade or more imo. A lot of people are going back to the office, but a lot won't dependent on industry. Those cost savings are going to be hard to give back once they are on the balance sheets. And the environmental impact of commuting and occupying office space all day has more eyes on it (and this will only increase). Commercial real estate is going to be available for a fraction of the pre-pandemic price and inventories will be huge.
Also related is business travel and I've said on here I don't think that ever reaches pre-pandemic levels again. Large conference facilities and hotels are going to be hurt bad long term.
Related but counter is vacation travel. This thing has been a massive boon for Airbnb/VRBO. I think post covid we see a couple years of revenge travel where people and families take about double their normal leisure trips. This should offset a small amount of that business travel loss.
This is WFH related but the urban populace fleeing to the suburbs and countryside during the pandemic has been something. What will that look like? Everyone now needs home office space and home gym space and all that. Post pandemic do all those pelatons find their own room in a new suburban mcmansion? What do downtown areas look like? Obviously this was happening more slowly for the last century but with those people able to work anywhere in the country and needing that space will be interesting to see. Home prices in the burbs are exploding, inventories are almost nothing.
What is going to happen with the cold/flu rates across the country? Will they stay low for years post pandemic? Seems like maybe but I know nothing about this stuff.
-
A lot of us business travelers just got "Up in the Air'd" and that will be good for many. I liked the points for my fam tho and it's always nice to see new places. I don't think that will be happening for awhile. I'm presenting three lunch and learns in January and hosting a convention spot for three days, right here from my basement at home.
-
My industry relies on a lot of person to person interaction. So my travel will go back to where it was prepandemic. We've done some remote onboarding of larger customers but the small guys typically don't have the infrastructure to do that. We're also investing in a lease fleet to encourage more local travel with our sales force.
On a personal note, we're planning a hostel tour of Europe in 2022/2023 as our honeymoon.
Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
-
Congrats!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Sounds sweet, IPA!
-
I want to do a "big" trip for my 40th in March '22 and I'm just smdh at how crowded and expensive it will probably be with you revengers
-
I want to do a "big" trip for my 40th in March '22 and I'm just smdh at how crowded and expensive it will probably be with you revengers
Yeah, it's going to be wild for a couple years I think. We've got 5 things booked right now for the next 12 months starting in May (CHIP WILLING) and are getting ready to book another big one for next Nov/Dec. Also going to hit like 5 baseball stadiums with lil sd this summer as quick hitters. I'm going to have like 45 days of PTO I'll need to burn for 2021 so it's going to get used.
-
On business / conventions, we heard the exact same thing after 9/11. Travel will never go back. It did. People hate hate hate virtual meetings and conferences. They lose out on the networking aspect which is why we all go to conferences in the first place. Now that every week to week business consultant travel? Yeah I think that could die down a bit. Conventions though can't wait to get back to in person from the tea leaves I've heard/read/seen
On back to the office? People hate hate hate zoom meetings worse than they hate in person meetings. Many people don't have a great setup for WFH even now and are itching to get back to the office. Now what I think we'll see is a much more hybrid situation where it's now not frowned upon to WFH when needed or "not feeling well" which is a great improvement for work life balance and overall health. Companies can't simply dump their office space short term. Now will there be long term planning and "maybe we don't need that new space we were planning on for 2030" thoughts going on? For sure. Could more office buildings turn into affordable housing? That wouldn't be a bad thing.
Which leads to a topic I care a lot about, what happens to living situations, city life? If you can work from home or your office no longer exists, does that make living in a city where the "stuff" is more important as you don't have to worry about commuting (that could be on foot if you live where you work, or driving out to the burbs where more and more offices are popping up) or do people want to maximize value per square foot if they are planning to live and work in the same space?
Kids? No idea but there is no way this year of virtual school hasn't impacted their education. Can educators learn from this and make "snow days" a thing of the past? Possible.
Leisure travel is expected to be batshit crazy by September I'm reading assuming all goes well.
How do bars and restaurants recover? Are we in for a decade of Chili's popping up everywhere where good restaurants used to be but didn't have the capital to make it? Is there a resurgence of new independent restaurants about to bust down the door when this passes? Will this usher in the new roaring 20's?
-
I want to do a "big" trip for my 40th in March '22 and I'm just smdh at how crowded and expensive it will probably be with you revengers
Yeah, it's going to be wild for a couple years I think. We've got 5 things booked right now for the next 12 months starting in May (CHIP WILLING) and are getting ready to book another big one for next Nov/Dec. Also going to hit like 5 baseball stadiums with lil sd this summer as quick hitters. I'm going to have like 45 days of PTO I'll need to burn for 2021 so it's going to get used.
Our Spain 2020 trip is penciled in for Spain 2021 but if us and them are chipped up it's going to be a madhouse over there. I carried over and bought more vacation for '21 so I'm packed to the gills to not work next year as much as possible.
-
I look forward to me and my friends setting a date for our cancelled Italy trip. That was a killer to have cancelled but also understandable.
Work for me still involves a lot of in person travel to plants, so that'll never change (and didn't too much over this pandemic besides being more of a PITA). The biggest improvement I hope is we get to a place where we can get more of my fellow coworkers back into the travel rotation (a combo of layoffs back in June, and then several of the ones we still have having either very young kids/immune compromised themselves or their spouses) meant the burden of "being there" fell on a very very small group, and did that get old quick. It is understandable, and you grit through it, but still, it wears on you.
I do enjoy that it does seem like increased flexibility with being at home is here to stay though. I just hope this next year we get more people back because somehow we're going to be busier. I ended up forfeiting (sure compensated but still) 7.5 PTO days this year because I couldn't take them with all the travel and dashing everywhere. I need that to stop. That's nearly 1/2 of my days off just poof, gone.
-
The convention center expansion here got delayed and is now possibly mumped because it was getting funded by things shut down. They're still trying to get it funded and built though. If it fails, there'll be this half-done piece of crap just sitting there as part of the view of everyone who passes through.
https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/washington-state-convention-center-announcement/281-b30d480b-29d1-4dfb-8cca-c833cbd333ea
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/dealbook/convention-centers-coronavirus.html
Dec 17, 2020, 10:11am EST
The manager of the $1.9 billion Washington State Convention Center addition project has until Jan. 11 to submit a construction shutdown plan for the financially hobbled project.
The convention center board Tuesday passed a motion that set the deadline and also said that members will have "a special meeting, as soon after that date as practical."
Shutting down the project over several months would cost around 1,000 construction jobs and delay the project's completion, further wounding the hospitality industry already facing unprecedented strain from the pandemic.
To avoid halting work on the 11-story, 1.6-million-square-foot Summit addition, the project team needs to close a $300 million financing shortfall. Additional bond financing rounds had been scheduled before the pandemic caused investor interest in lodging tax-backed securities to dry up.
Minimal process has been made on finding additional financing since two weeks ago, when King County Executive Dow Constantine said the county will lend the project $100 million.
The city and state are also looking into contributing to the lending effort.
A Constantine spokesman Wednesday said numerous courthouse discussions are occurring, and that he thinks there will be "something concrete later this week or next."
Spokespeople for the mayor and governor reiterated their support for helping to keep construction going but offered no updates.
Project development manager Matt Griffin of Pine Street Group said he could not say what the odds of rounding up the rest of the financing. He has met with city Department of Construction and Inspections Director Nathan Torgelson to talk about how the project would be wound down.
It would occur over the spring. Once fully shutdown the incomplete project would be a blight along Interstate 5 in the heart of the region.
"(The situation) is boiling and it's not comfortable," said Griffin, who added the cost of the project has increased from just over $1.8 billion to nearly $1.9 billion.
-
I'm gonna go to a bunch of concerts. I'm surprised more smaller venues I go to haven't announced permanent closures but I expect there will be a lot more DIY-type concerts.
I'm also gonna travel for work more soon, probably more than pre-pandemic TBH
-
I'm gonna go to a bunch of concerts. I'm surprised more smaller venues I go to haven't announced permanent closures but I expect there will be a lot more DIY-type concerts.
Here, the NIVA Save Our Stages money in the relief bill is looking to be enough to prevent extinction for a bunch.
I've got a paper ticket for a 4/1/20 concert that I just looked up and saw it's been officially continued again from February 2021 to 11/16/21. It'll be a miracle if I don't lose the thing by then.
-
i'm pretty skeptical of a long-term reduction demand for urban commercial real estate. a little less skeptical of a long-term reduction in business travel, but i think the magnitude is being oversold.
-
I don't think the prevailing reasons that organizations have large scale conventions and conferences won't go away. Companies can still get a eff ton of money from smaller businesses wanting to sell crap. If anything the value of networking has been enhanced by this. Company executives still will want to get away and hob knob with other execs.
I am now business traveling for two different industries and I can tell you that I already have three conferences scheduled for this summer, including one in Vegas, two in the fall of '21, and two more in the winter of '21/'22, in DC and Atlanta.
-
Gonna be some ragers post covid
-
There will never, ever be snow days at school ever again, and that makes me super sad.
Kind of a rite of passage, now lost forever.
-
There will never, ever be snow days at school ever again, and that makes me super sad.
Kind of a rite of passage, now lost forever.
This is very much not true. There is no way that districts will be able to permanently be able to afford giving every student a computer and many students internet access. Even if they did, I think occasionally staying home and doing two hours of computer work will be just fine with kids on a dull ass February day. The kids will still be able to watch The Price Is Right and then get some sledding in.
-
There will never, ever be snow days at school ever again, and that makes me super sad.
Kind of a rite of passage, now lost forever.
This is very much not true. There is no way that districts will be able to permanently be able to afford giving every student a computer and many students internet access. Even if they did, I think occasionally staying home and doing two hours of computer work will be just fine with kids on a dull ass February day. The kids will still be able to watch The Price Is Right and then get some sledding in.
A bit off topic, but the added leaning on Chromebooks and tech in schools is ass-backward imo. I'd love to send my kid to a school where there was basically no tech outside of a computer lab where they learned typing, excel, programming, etc.
-
There will never, ever be snow days at school ever again, and that makes me super sad.
Kind of a rite of passage, now lost forever.
This is very much not true. There is no way that districts will be able to permanently be able to afford giving every student a computer and many students internet access. Even if they did, I think occasionally staying home and doing two hours of computer work will be just fine with kids on a dull ass February day. The kids will still be able to watch The Price Is Right and then get some sledding in.
That sounds like an awesome snow day
-
I'm looking at getting some short term rentals and have a friend I may partner with in the hotel industry. He has a rental and a couple of economy hotels so has some experience. I know a few people that rent on airbnb and have been getting a decent amount of month long bookings with people being untethered to the office.
-
Dimon was a holdout but even he's turned
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1380343472952123395
-
You really have to feel for New Yorkers right now. Worst of every possible world.
-
Dimon was a holdout but even he's turned
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1380343472952123395
His actual letter laid out a lot of the things I continue to bring up about going back to the office. If you were to believe the "no more office workers", 60/100 is not what they were talking about.
-
literally nobody on the planet has said or believes that....
-
Any projections for when there will be an in-person gE gathering in Manhattan? Would like to IRL meet gE'rs for some beers.
-
I've been doing some applying/interviewing for remote work over the past couple weeks. I feel like there is a greater number of remote opportunities now than there was in the past. I've also been directly told by the majority of recruiters I've talked to (4 or 5 out of 6) that they decided to make the position permanently remote over the past year.
I may never work in an office again.
-
I've been doing some applying/interviewing for remote work over the past couple weeks. I feel like there is a greater number of remote opportunities now than there was in the past. I've also been directly told by the majority of recruiters I've talked to (4 or 5 out of 6) that they decided to make the position permanently remote over the past year.
I may never work in an office again.
we are closing regional offices for full time remote. North American HQ will be at about 40% in person. not sure what our international offices are doing but assume it's similar. we were already heading this direction (my employees and I have worked from home for the last 5'ish years) but Covid accelerated it by at least a decade. my industry is definitely one that WFH works for, obviously all industries won't.
-
My company just started offering work from home in January. I asked and they told me I live too close to the office.
:bang:
-
literally nobody on the planet has said or believes that....
They weren't thinking 60% return by a longshot. I think that's even low if we flash forward 7 years. Depends on the industry of course.
Anyways super smart Dimon and I are on the same page unsurprisingly.
-
My company just started offering work from home in January. I asked and they told me I live too close to the office.
:bang:
Lol this has been part of our quandry. Move further away!
-
They decided on a 25 mile min, I'm at like 16 miles or something. I would have to live south of 435 and frankly that's just not worth it to me.
-
They decided on a 25 mile min, I'm at like 16 miles or something. I would have to live south of 435 and frankly that's just not worth it to me.
Yeah not worth that. New city time!
-
Let’s be honest, distance from the office is a really stupid way to evaluate whether someone should be able to work from home.
-
Let’s be honest, distance from the office is a really stupid way to evaluate whether someone should be able to work from home.
Absolutely, and I very diplomatically let them know that. It's just the initial roll out, I'm hoping that requirement gets relaxed. Only like 3 of 20ish people were eligible.
-
Let’s be honest, distance from the office is a really stupid way to evaluate whether someone should be able to work from home.
Yes. Facebook paying different salaries for remote employees depending on where they lived is also really stupid.
-
Any projections for when there will be an in-person gE gathering in Manhattan? Would like to IRL meet gE'rs for some beers.
FattyFest, September or October.
-
Let’s be honest, distance from the office is a really stupid way to evaluate whether someone should be able to work from home.
Yes. Facebook paying different salaries for remote employees depending on where they lived is also really stupid.
We do this, I believe it’s pretty standard in most industries. NYC and SFO are only a 120% compa which seems really not worth living there. OMA is a 95% which infuriates me.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Let’s be honest, distance from the office is a really stupid way to evaluate whether someone should be able to work from home.
Yes. Facebook paying different salaries for remote employees depending on where they lived is also really stupid.
Why? Location was part of the reason for increased salary. If you no longer need to live in an expensive place, it makes sense to adjust the salary down.
-
My company just started offering work from home in January. I asked and they told me I live too close to the office.
:bang:
Time to set up a domicile PO box in South Dakota
-
Let’s be honest, distance from the office is a really stupid way to evaluate whether someone should be able to work from home.
Yes. Facebook paying different salaries for remote employees depending on where they lived is also really stupid.
Why? Location was part of the reason for increased salary. If you no longer need to live in an expensive place, it makes sense to adjust the salary down.
Nobody working from home needs to live in an expensive place. The job should pay what it pays and employees should choose where to live accordingly.
-
Let’s be honest, distance from the office is a really stupid way to evaluate whether someone should be able to work from home.
Yes. Facebook paying different salaries for remote employees depending on where they lived is also really stupid.
Why? Location was part of the reason for increased salary. If you no longer need to live in an expensive place, it makes sense to adjust the salary down.
Nobody working from home needs to live in an expensive place. The job should pay what it pays and employees should choose where to live accordingly.
Sure, but the previous pay benchmark was based on being present in SF. If that is no longer the benchmark it will be reduced everywhere else.
-
Let’s be honest, distance from the office is a really stupid way to evaluate whether someone should be able to work from home.
Yes. Facebook paying different salaries for remote employees depending on where they lived is also really stupid.
Why? Location was part of the reason for increased salary. If you no longer need to live in an expensive place, it makes sense to adjust the salary down.
Nobody working from home needs to live in an expensive place. The job should pay what it pays and employees should choose where to live accordingly.
an employer will pay to market (or whatever percent above or below market) to obtain and keep the level of employee they need in the role. that may mean paying more to recruit and retain employees in NYC and less in OKC. this isn't a government program. and by having formal compa ratios by geography you avoid discrimination cases.
-
I get that not all employees work for the same salary and that a company is going to hire at the market rate. It's the whole idea of getting a paycut from the job you already have because you decide to pack up and move to OKC part that I don't understand. That seems more in line with a government program to me.
-
I get that not all employees work for the same salary and that a company is going to hire at the market rate. It's the whole idea of getting a paycut from the job you already have because you decide to pack up and move to OKC part that I don't understand. That seems more in line with a government program to me.
It’s no longer really the same job!
-
I've been doing some applying/interviewing for remote work over the past couple weeks. I feel like there is a greater number of remote opportunities now than there was in the past. I've also been directly told by the majority of recruiters I've talked to (4 or 5 out of 6) that they decided to make the position permanently remote over the past year.
I may never work in an office again.
we are closing regional offices for full time remote. North American HQ will be at about 40% in person. not sure what our international offices are doing but assume it's similar. we were already heading this direction (my employees and I have worked from home for the last 5'ish years) but Covid accelerated it by at least a decade. my industry is definitely one that WFH works for, obviously all industries won't.
We are still up in the air with our policy. We already had a day or 2 at home if you wanted. They keep saying we will have people back in the office, but still haven't decided what that means. I think they realize how stupid it is since we've been out a year and everything is fine and most people want to continue, but can't pull the trigger. I'm sure I'll have to go back in a day or two at some point and I'll be pissed about it. All of my team members are in other cities so I will just be going to an office to be on zoom meetings all day. Its dumb.
-
I get paid less than counterparts that work in Chicago, NYC, etc. I don't know HOW much less, but I have been specifically told that this is the case. I don't love that, but I also know that I am comparably more valuable as a lower cost provider of the same services.
-
Let’s be honest, distance from the office is a really stupid way to evaluate whether someone should be able to work from home.
Yes. Facebook paying different salaries for remote employees depending on where they lived is also really stupid.
This is a hilariously SF way of thinking.
Although I will say the salaries at my company are the same across all offices, which REALLY makes me feel for my NY and DC colleagues at times like this.
-
4 days in the office this week. Only one. Feels good. DMX blasting on the floor!
-
I got like a 10% col bump when I moved from Topeka to the kc office :kstategrad:
-
Let’s be honest, distance from the office is a really stupid way to evaluate whether someone should be able to work from home.
Yes. Facebook paying different salaries for remote employees depending on where they lived is also really stupid.
This is a hilariously SF way of thinking.
Although I will say the salaries at my company are the same across all offices, which REALLY makes me feel for my NY and DC colleagues at times like this.
Yeah it makes less sense to pay everyone equally when there are actual offices
-
https://twitter.com/modeledbehavior/status/1443725521985146882
-
https://twitter.com/modeledbehavior/status/1443725521985146882
God damnit. V jelz. I'm good friends w a PwC bro, too. Going to kick his ass when I see him tomorrow.
-
With pay decreases too.
-
With pay decreases too.
based on geography though right? so bay area cat can't move to kansas city and make bay area money. but bay area cat can work from bay area or nyc or tokyo and make bay area money.
-
With pay decreases too.
based on geography though right? so bay area cat can't move to kansas city and make bay area money. but bay area cat can work from bay area or nyc or tokyo and make bay area money.
That's how I read it. Interesting they aren't getting rid of any office space. This kind of sounds like "unlimited vacation"
-
With pay decreases too.
based on geography though right? so bay area cat can't move to kansas city and make bay area money. but bay area cat can work from bay area or nyc or tokyo and make bay area money.
That's how I read it. Interesting they aren't getting rid of any office space. This kind of sounds like "unlimited vacation"
we aren't either (until leases run out)
-
With pay decreases too.
based on geography though right? so bay area cat can't move to kansas city and make bay area money. but bay area cat can work from bay area or nyc or tokyo and make bay area money.
I think that's pretty much what everyone landed on and IMO it's bullshit. Pay people what they're worth regardless of where they live.
-
And my company didn't lower anyone's salary, but they pretty much told everyone with a remote role that moved somewhere cheap that they won't be getting raises until they're in line with their local comp rates. I think it's just because lowering everyone's salary now would be too complicated and difficult.
-
Finally notified I won't have to go back in the office if I don't want to. Guess what? I don't want to. :billdance:
-
With pay decreases too.
based on geography though right? so bay area cat can't move to kansas city and make bay area money. but bay area cat can work from bay area or nyc or tokyo and make bay area money.
That's how I read it. Interesting they aren't getting rid of any office space. This kind of sounds like "unlimited vacation"
we aren't either (until leases run out)
I've always wondered why public accounting has so much office space anyways, their worker bees are always on site at a client.
-
Covid boostie in the left arm, flu boostie in the right arm. Bring on Thanos.
-
Covid boostie in the left arm, flu boostie in the right arm. Bring on Thanos.
Both shots on the same day. You sir are a glutton for punishment. :sdeek:
-
I did that. Feels incred.
-
Covid boostie in the left arm, flu boostie in the right arm. Bring on Thanos.
Both shots on the same day. You sir are a glutton for punishment. :sdeek:
See, I look at it quite the opposite. Why be inconvenienced, both in time and possible discomfort and/or illness, on 2 occasions if 1 occasion will suffice. Just the thought of that type of inefficiency drives me bananas.
Along the same lines, I once sat in a dentist chair for 7 hours to take care of some things that were recommended be done in 3 visits. I asked if there was risk associated to do it all at once and was told no, it is just that most people won’t endure dental procedures for that long.. So I told them to schedule it all on the same day. No way I was going to let something that could be done in a day wreck potentially 3 days.
I did that. Feels incred.
And also this. I srs want to find the biggest dude around and challenge him to fisticuffs right now.
-
I think I would be okay if people who aren't my family or friends always stay >6 feet away from me in indoor spaces.