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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: CHONGS on October 29, 2020, 11:44:55 AM

Title: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2020, 11:44:55 AM
Ok, let's see who gets this closest.  Put down your predictions here. We need to have the  numbers, not just who wins.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2020, 11:46:50 AM
We can use this:
https://www.270towin.com/
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: cfbandyman on October 29, 2020, 11:50:27 AM
290-248 Biden
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2020, 11:52:15 AM
(https://www.270towin.com/maps/nloZw.png)
Title: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: 8manpick on October 29, 2020, 12:14:42 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201029/c99822feaa18098c37b11f26f76472b1.jpg)
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Phil Titola on October 29, 2020, 12:18:53 PM
320 ChiCom Joe
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2020, 12:20:28 PM
Even when I was being generous, I couldn't see Joe getting over 300. I just can't see it.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: chum1 on October 29, 2020, 12:22:46 PM
Because the turnout in Texas is just ridiculous.

(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/AvXm3)
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Phil Titola on October 29, 2020, 12:25:47 PM
Even when I was being generous, I couldn't see Joe getting over 300. I just can't see it.

any tossup on that map except IA gets him over 300
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: ChiComCat on October 29, 2020, 12:27:43 PM
Optimistic but not Texas optimistic
(https://www.270towin.com/maps/g1mWD.png)
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 29, 2020, 01:15:38 PM
Biden 357
Trump 181
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: steve dave on October 29, 2020, 02:41:24 PM
(https://www.270towin.com/maps/nloZw.png)
This is NE-02’s time to shine


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Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: XocolateThundarr on October 29, 2020, 02:45:49 PM
(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/xkEoL)
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: wetwillie on October 29, 2020, 02:49:25 PM
538-0
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Cire on October 29, 2020, 03:03:22 PM
290-248

Biden Hangs onto PA
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: MakeItRain on October 29, 2020, 10:01:33 PM
(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/xkEoL)

What's happening with Illinois here?
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: MakeItRain on October 29, 2020, 10:08:34 PM
(https://www.270towin.com/maps/mR9yw.png)
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: sys on October 29, 2020, 10:27:28 PM
Biden 357
Trump 181

same.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: wetwillie on October 29, 2020, 10:46:06 PM
Are those two stripes in Nebraska where Trump mowed down Sasse and then backed back over him?
 
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: XocolateThundarr on October 30, 2020, 11:55:10 AM
(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/xkEoL)

What's happening with Illinois here?

Might have booted the predicto on that one?  :ohno:
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Skipper44 on October 30, 2020, 05:43:02 PM
(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/Rn3vB)
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Institutional Control on October 30, 2020, 06:03:37 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201030/be1b3b54b04f60a528c7b0163ae5ff03.jpg)


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Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: chum1 on October 31, 2020, 01:17:11 PM
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: star seed 7 on November 01, 2020, 01:59:28 PM
https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/1322868443356499973
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: chum1 on November 01, 2020, 04:15:34 PM
https://twitter.com/DomenicoNPR/status/1323016969944244225
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: wetwillie on November 01, 2020, 04:21:22 PM
Is Texas really going to go for Biden? That is wild.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: 8manpick on November 01, 2020, 07:34:00 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201102/55fc1ca5d1e469839746c8eb28c877f3.jpg)
Here’s my final guess. I think PA is going to be really shady, maybe TX too
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: john "teach me how to" dougie on November 01, 2020, 08:59:14 PM
(https://www.270towin.com/maps/38AB1.png)
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: nicname on November 01, 2020, 09:18:46 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201102/11d9c38c0ae371d44b7315ffad96ba77.jpg)
The left coast island of Colorado along with the actual left coast, yankeedom, a smidge of the midlands and a sliver of tidewater are enough to give to big joe.


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Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: catastrophe on November 01, 2020, 11:00:43 PM
Is Texas really going to go for Biden? That is wild.
I don’t see it actually happening this election, but if Republicans don’t change back to being actually conservative (plus less racist) then I definitely think it could go purple in the future.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: MakeItRain on November 01, 2020, 11:56:10 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201030/be1b3b54b04f60a528c7b0163ae5ff03.jpg)


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I was going to revise mine to exactly this, thanks, now I don't need to.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: IPA4Me on November 02, 2020, 06:03:56 AM
https://twitter.com/PeteThePlanner/status/1323230471669587969?s=20

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Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Brock Landers on November 03, 2020, 11:20:28 AM
(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/WveGx)
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: star seed 7 on November 03, 2020, 11:26:35 AM
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1323625920595451904
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Phil Titola on November 03, 2020, 11:28:06 AM
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1323625920595451904

Why does India hate the Trumps?  Giving up on his home state?  Imagine losing your home state.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Institutional Control on November 03, 2020, 11:30:56 AM
He probably mixed up India with Iran.

At least he got Russia correct. 
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Brock Landers on November 03, 2020, 11:36:12 AM
Apparently his campaign rally in India didn't take.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: MakeItRain on November 03, 2020, 11:42:02 AM
He probably mixed up India with Iran.

At least he got Russia correct.

That dumb ass definitely did that, Modi might be Trump's closest ally of all the world leaders.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 03, 2020, 11:45:51 AM
Liberia is the only African country that supports Joe.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: star seed 7 on November 03, 2020, 11:46:40 AM
Liberia is the only African country that supports Joe.

This is the one that most confuses me most
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: MakeItRain on November 03, 2020, 11:51:43 AM
Jesus, even Brexit supporters hate trump.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1323645393419313155
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 03, 2020, 11:56:46 AM
I think things are going to get really weird between us and Europe if Trump somehow wins this thing.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: mocat on November 03, 2020, 12:03:58 PM
the NC hipster community saves us from Joe losing every single swing state

(https://www.270towin.com/maps/kdv9d.png)
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: star seed 7 on November 03, 2020, 12:10:24 PM
Liberia is the only African country that supports Joe.

This is the one that most confuses me most

Thought it was Somalia right? That has to be it.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 03, 2020, 12:41:08 PM
Somalia is on the east coast. Liberia is a country that was colonized by the United States, basically as a way for black people to go back to Africa. They won independence during the Civil War.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: star seed 7 on November 03, 2020, 12:42:17 PM
Yeah I know all that, I doubt trump Jr's media people do though
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Institutional Control on November 03, 2020, 01:17:59 PM
Yeah I know all that, I doubt trump Jr's media people do though

I saw on Twitter that DJTJ just stole the map from someone on 4chan.   I don't know if that's true or not.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: mocat on November 03, 2020, 01:58:29 PM
i wish MO was still a swing state. what a rush that would be
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: mocat on November 03, 2020, 01:59:26 PM
from all but 1 presidential election between 1904 and 2004, MO voted with the winner. amaze
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Institutional Control on November 03, 2020, 02:03:28 PM
Living in swing state Texas is pretty great. 
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: passranch on November 03, 2020, 02:24:46 PM
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1323625920595451904

Why does India hate the Trumps?  Giving up on his home state?  Imagine losing your home state.

Kamala's family on her mother's side is from India:  https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/930722345/in-kamala-harris-ancestral-village-the-u-s-election-is-followed-closely

Presumably that means that all 1 billion Indians are all direct relation, therefore are pro-Joe.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: CHONGS on November 04, 2020, 10:35:24 AM
(https://www.270towin.com/maps/nloZw.png)
Looks like I might be the closest.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: mocat on November 04, 2020, 10:40:59 AM
yeah idk if you just tried to find a 269-269 tie but good job!
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: CHONGS on November 04, 2020, 10:53:36 AM
Nope, I just assumed it was obvious the entire south (-Virginia) would go Trump and that Ohio and Penn would stay Trumpy.  I mean FL, TX, NC, GA were never NOT going to go to Trump.  538 and others are just trusting bad polling.

I didn't think SD would be able to pull out the NE vote though.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: mocat on November 04, 2020, 10:59:40 AM
yeah but you had AZ and that one surprised me. although looking at the margin in 2016 maybe it shouldn't have
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: CHONGS on November 04, 2020, 11:00:55 AM
yeah but you had AZ and that one surprised me. although looking at the margin in 2016 maybe it shouldn't have
Oh, I really think the McCain thing was a factor there.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: ChiComCat on November 04, 2020, 11:05:06 AM
I still think Biden will pull at least one of PA, GA, or NC.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: star seed 7 on November 04, 2020, 11:08:05 AM
I thought AZ was a blue lock but I don't get into polling. Just looking at it as a voter, appointing mcsally to McCains seat like a month after she lost the senate race would really piss me off. Will of the voter and all that.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: cfbandyman on November 04, 2020, 12:00:26 PM
290-248 Biden

Ahem
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: kstater on November 04, 2020, 12:01:02 PM
I still think Biden will pull at least one of PA, GA, or NC.
I think he has a chance to pull both PA and GA.  Georgia will be close though

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Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: cfbandyman on November 04, 2020, 12:08:23 PM
I still think Biden will pull at least one of PA, GA, or NC.

Yeah, that is probably going to happen.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Brock Landers on November 13, 2020, 02:13:38 PM
Not too shabby, just got NC and GA swapped.

(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/WveGx)
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: sys on November 13, 2020, 02:18:10 PM
damn, that was a good predicto.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Brock Landers on November 13, 2020, 02:19:57 PM
Our man IC got the exact numbers right!  Missed on GA, NC and ME.

(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201030/be1b3b54b04f60a528c7b0163ae5ff03.jpg)


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Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: Institutional Control on November 13, 2020, 02:37:29 PM
I still can't believe GA went blue instead of NC.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: 8manpick on November 13, 2020, 03:03:57 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201102/55fc1ca5d1e469839746c8eb28c877f3.jpg)
Here’s my final guess. I think PA is going to be really shady, maybe TX too
I think my only misses were PA and FL flipping
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: mocat on November 13, 2020, 04:00:36 PM
the NC hipster community saves us from Joe losing every single swing state

(https://www.270towin.com/maps/kdv9d.png)


LOL
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: CHONGS on November 13, 2020, 04:11:21 PM
I think we need to use newsmax or OANN as the source for called states.
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: star seed 7 on November 13, 2020, 04:22:26 PM
I only respect the hereby declare method
Title: Re: 2020 EV predictions
Post by: chum1 on December 17, 2020, 12:15:41 PM
Because the turnout in Texas is just ridiculous.

(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/AvXm3)

I definitely didn't expect Trump to increase his turnout like he did.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1339621053170106369