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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on October 18, 2020, 05:20:30 PM

Title: new election poll
Post by: sys on October 18, 2020, 05:20:30 PM
hopefully the board's trump fans are still checking in now and again, even if they seldom now post.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Spracne on October 18, 2020, 05:22:30 PM
So, regardless of who you prefer to win, state who you prefer to win?
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: sys on October 18, 2020, 05:30:35 PM
So, regardless of who you prefer to win, state who you prefer to win?

no, state who you think is more likely to win.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Spracne on October 18, 2020, 05:31:33 PM
So, regardless of who you prefer to win, state who you prefer to win?

no, state who you think is more likely to win.

Regardless of who you would prefer to win?
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: sys on October 18, 2020, 05:33:02 PM
that's right.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Spracne on October 18, 2020, 05:34:10 PM
that's right.

I'm finding myself having to regard who I would prefer to win in order to answer this question prompt. Shouldn't there only be two options? I'm mega confused.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Brock Landers on October 18, 2020, 05:35:52 PM
JFC Spracne is this a bit that I'm not getting?
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Spracne on October 18, 2020, 05:41:03 PM
JFC Spracne is this a bit that I'm not getting?

I've answered the poll, but I still feel mislead.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: sys on October 18, 2020, 06:11:49 PM
I'm finding myself having to regard who I would prefer to win in order to answer this question prompt. Shouldn't there only be two options? I'm mega confused.

if you don't have a preference, i suggest you answer using one of the "prefer trump" options as we will have trouble getting a good sample from trump supporters.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 18, 2020, 06:25:42 PM
It feels weird to click a button that says I prefer Biden but here we are
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Spracne on October 18, 2020, 06:29:24 PM
It feels weird to click a button that says I prefer Biden but here we are

Because at first you didn't think your preference regarding who you would like to be president would be part of the answer, right? So weird...
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 18, 2020, 06:31:41 PM
No because Biden is old and not very competent any more. He isn’t even funny or charismatic like he used to be, there is very little to like anymore.  Still considerably better than Trump.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: sys on October 19, 2020, 03:33:15 PM
jfc, someone dm the board trumpalos and tell them come back here and vote.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: steve dave on October 19, 2020, 03:47:40 PM
dax, dlew, etc. please vote in sys's poll
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 20, 2020, 06:07:23 AM
Third party voters are ignored as usual.

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: steve dave on October 20, 2020, 07:43:06 AM
Third party voters are ignored as usual.

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they aren't statistically relevant but please post here who you are voting for and who you think will win
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 20, 2020, 07:45:56 AM
Jorgensen / Trump

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 20, 2020, 07:47:45 AM
Why do you think trump is going to win?
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: michigancat on October 20, 2020, 07:50:45 AM
Mods, please mark that down as a Trump/Trump
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 20, 2020, 10:01:44 AM
You can jump off a bridge.

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: michigancat on October 20, 2020, 10:06:59 AM
You can jump off a bridge.

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:D
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 20, 2020, 10:08:15 AM
Why do you think trump is going to win?
Most folks voting Trump won't tell you. They ignore pollsters.

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: michigancat on October 20, 2020, 10:09:16 AM
Why do you think trump is going to win?
Most folks voting Trump won't tell you. They ignore pollsters.

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:Wha:
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: tdaver on October 20, 2020, 10:29:22 AM
Jorgensen / Biden

I’m with you, IPA
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Trim on October 20, 2020, 10:34:32 AM
You can jump off a bridge.


It’s “you can go in the back.”
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Spracne on October 20, 2020, 12:36:23 PM
You can jump off a bridge.

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I'm not sure you are aware, but mich's superpower is he can tell you about your secret motivations, the ones so secret that even YOU are not aware of them.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 20, 2020, 12:45:28 PM
Have to say I’m really surprised anyone has voted they think Trump will win. I suppose it looked solidly in hand for Hilary and we know how that turned out, but like every poll is just a landslide for Biden regardless of which one you look at.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: waks on October 20, 2020, 12:55:44 PM
Have to say I’m really surprised anyone has voted they think Trump will win. I suppose it looked solidly in hand for Hilary and we know how that turned out, but like every poll is just a landslide for Biden regardless of which one you look at.
According to social media, there are still a lot of people that think Trump will win. I'm still very much :ohno: about it.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: CHONGS on October 20, 2020, 12:57:48 PM
He has a very good chance of winning
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 20, 2020, 12:58:38 PM
He has a very good chance of winning

Explain this to me like the dummy that I am
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 20, 2020, 01:09:30 PM
He has about a 1 in 10 chance of winning. It wouldn't be that shocking to see it happen.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 20, 2020, 01:15:24 PM
https://townhall.com/columnists/kevinmccullough/2020/10/11/signs-that-trump-isnt-going-to-win-on-nov-3-n2577841?amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 20, 2020, 01:16:16 PM
Is that a trumper site? Ya. Just sharing an article.

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: waks on October 20, 2020, 01:19:40 PM
Is that a trumper site? Ya. Just sharing an article.

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A comically bad one.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 20, 2020, 01:26:38 PM
https://twitter.com/lindsaycrouse/status/1317830418465460224?s=19

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 20, 2020, 01:29:23 PM
Is James Comey going to reopen a criminal investigation into Joe Biden in a few days?
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: michigancat on October 20, 2020, 03:47:24 PM
You can jump off a bridge.

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I'm not sure you are aware, but mich's superpower is he can tell you about your secret motivations, the ones so secret that even YOU are not aware of them.

Hey I really thought you had announced you voted for trump! did not mean to hurt your feelings (IF YOUR FEELINGS ARE IN FACT HURT, HOW WOULD I KNOW???)

and I don't doubt IPA will vote for Jorgenson, I was kinda making a "vote for third party is a vote for trump" comment without taking the time to spell it out explicitly because it was more fun and took less time to do it the way I did it
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 20, 2020, 03:51:59 PM
I knew what you meant. I vote 3rd party rather holding my nose.

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 20, 2020, 03:52:54 PM
I honestly can’t imagine what a second trump term looks like
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 20, 2020, 03:53:13 PM
Ok I can it looks bad, very bad.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 20, 2020, 04:04:58 PM
I don't understand the appeal of a libertarian candidate in the middle of a pandemic, where large parts of the economy are desperate for a bailout and interest rates are low enough to provide that bailout relatively painlessly.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 20, 2020, 04:44:20 PM
I'm not a fan of where our government has been going. I choose to vote against establishment candidates. If they'll put up somebody willing to do things differently, I will happily vote for one of the two main candidates. That won't happen as those in the establishment will only continue to do what benefits them.

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: CHONGS on October 20, 2020, 05:55:28 PM
Trump is very different.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 20, 2020, 06:30:26 PM
Yeah man, I'm not going to try to convince anyone to vote any way. However, not only am I a third party voter, but I'm a member of said third party. This is a real different beast though, it's really a crossroads in this country, there is a lot to lose. I do realize the stakes of this election means something different to everyone, but maybe even this is enough of a reason to change our course.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/7g0Jh4h5E1E[/youtube]
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 20, 2020, 06:33:59 PM
Hell even the fact that the pandemic isn't close to over or that we don't have a vaccine yet and this administration has done everything possible to undermine public trust in the institutions needed to approve such things.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Trim on October 20, 2020, 06:44:12 PM
I’d normally vote 3rd party or Tom or whoever, especially in a safe state, but it’s too important this time to run up the score and try to reduce the chances of anything mumped up happening and get back to semi-normal. Tom and others can have my vote next time it’s two relative normals running.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: star seed 7 on October 20, 2020, 06:55:58 PM
I’d normally vote 3rd party or Tom or whoever, especially in a safe state, but it’s too important this time to run up the score and try to reduce the chances of anything mumped up happening and get back to semi-normal. Tom and others can have my vote next time it’s two relative normals running.

Yes! Sorry Tom.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Trim on October 20, 2020, 07:00:03 PM
And I was the first person to vote in this poll that something mumped up will happen. :frown:
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 20, 2020, 07:39:46 PM
Trump is very different.
He was a shyster before his presidency. Still can't believe he made it through the primary.

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: treysolid on October 20, 2020, 07:47:31 PM
Trump is very different.
He was a shyster before his presidency. Still can't believe he made it through the primary.

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this country has an unhealthy admiration of wealth and wealthy people
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 20, 2020, 07:49:57 PM
But he’s broke
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: CHONGS on October 20, 2020, 07:52:43 PM
Trump is very different.
He was a shyster before his presidency. Still can't believe he made it through the primary.

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But he's no politician, the opposite of establishment, so if that's what you want...
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: treysolid on October 20, 2020, 07:59:29 PM
But he’s broke

he's in debt. it's different. by all outwardly appearances, he's wealthy.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 20, 2020, 08:02:20 PM
Biden is loaded too....
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 20, 2020, 08:28:19 PM
I’d normally vote 3rd party or Tom or whoever, especially in a safe state, but it’s too important this time to run up the score and try to reduce the chances of anything mumped up happening and get back to semi-normal. Tom and others can have my vote next time it’s two relative normals running.

Yeah, no shot I'm voting for Kamala in '24.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: cfbandyman on October 20, 2020, 08:35:01 PM
He has about a 1 in 10 chance of winning. It wouldn't be that shocking to see it happen.

It's close to that, roll a d10 and tell yourself how confident you feel with the 1 showing up

https://twitter.com/lindsaycrouse/status/1317830418465460224?s=19

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Never was that off by 538. That looks like NYT's predicto
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: cfbandyman on October 20, 2020, 08:43:50 PM
That being said, I looked back at 538's 2016, and October 20th was Hillary's height, it went pretty much downhill after. That being said, she went from being about 7% lead to 3.6%. Biden is at 10.3% currently. It'll probably tighten, but we'll see by how much. 
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: steve dave on October 20, 2020, 08:46:36 PM
It’s not tightening right now. kinda running out of time for that. And Trump’s ramping up the enraged crazy person stuff, his campaign is broke, and so far Joe is bullet proof so I don’t know what that catalyst is going to be.


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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: cfbandyman on October 20, 2020, 08:50:06 PM
It’s not tightening right now. kinda running out of time for that. And Drumpf’s ramping up the enraged crazy person stuff, his campaign is broke, and so far Joe is bullet proof so I don’t know what that catalyst is going to be.


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Right, right now

I 100% agree overall. If it hold over the next 4-5 days, it's probably over. If it's in the same spot in 1 week, I feel like you could call it, nearly 40 mil have already voted. That being said, it was basically from this point on where the election tightened. Though that election happened 5 calendar days later (Nov 8th vs 3rd). I'm just saying, this isn't quite over yet.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 20, 2020, 08:54:54 PM
Steve Dave is not a believer in the silent majority apparently
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: bucket on October 20, 2020, 08:57:23 PM
It’s not tightening right now. kinda running out of time for that. And Drumpf’s ramping up the enraged crazy person stuff, his campaign is broke, and so far Joe is bullet proof so I don’t know what that catalyst is going to be.


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Right, right now

I 100% agree overall. If it hold over the next 4-5 days, it's probably over. If it's in the same spot in 1 week, I feel like you could call it, nearly 40 mil have already voted. That being said, it was basically from this point on where the election tightened. Though that election happened 5 calendar days later (Nov 8th vs 3rd). I'm just saying, this isn't quite over yet.

Nate Silver expects it to tighten.
Title: new election poll
Post by: Institutional Control on October 20, 2020, 09:05:10 PM
Steve Dave is not a believer in the silent majority apparently
I’ve never met a Trump supporter that was very silent.


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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Spracne on October 20, 2020, 09:06:32 PM
Steve Dave is not a believer in the silent majority apparently
I’ve never met a Trump supporter that was very silent.


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You should talk to michigancat. He can eagle eye them from miles away.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: chum1 on October 20, 2020, 09:45:03 PM
Hillary had a lead in the polls in 2016 and lost by a slim margin. Biden has a much bigger, much more stable lead in the polls in 2020. Pretty straightforward.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 20, 2020, 09:47:42 PM
Hillary had a lead in the polls in 2016 and lost by a slim margin. Biden has a much bigger, much more stable lead in the polls in 2020. Pretty straightforward.

Yes I agree with you and Chingon that trump has a good chance of winning
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: chum1 on October 20, 2020, 09:53:10 PM
Hillary had a lead in the polls in 2016 and lost by a slim margin. Biden has a much bigger, much more stable lead in the polls in 2020. Pretty straightforward.

Yes I agree with you and Chingon that trump has a good chance of winning

If Trump wins, his chance of winning today is close to 100%. Same for  Biden. Think about what type of cosmic event would have to occur in the next two weeks to change the outcome.
Title: new election poll
Post by: catastrophe on October 20, 2020, 10:28:14 PM
Yeah man, I'm not going to try to convince anyone to vote any way. However, not only am I a third party voter, but I'm a member of said third party. This is a real different beast though, it's really a crossroads in this country, there is a lot to lose. I do realize the stakes of this election means something different to everyone, but maybe even this is enough of a reason to change our course.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/7g0Jh4h5E1E[/youtube]
#ImWithMIR

Every other election I’ve railed against people who say voting third party is “throwing your vote away.” But this is a clear choice between reprimanding someone who has done immeasurable damage to this country or letting it slide.

Everyone who says they’d rather vote third party in this election is literally saying they are ok with what Trump has done and potentially will do.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: michigancat on October 20, 2020, 11:02:29 PM
Steve Dave is not a believer in the silent majority apparently
I’ve never met a Trump supporter that was very silent.


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You should talk to michigancat. He can eagle eye them from miles away.

the easiest way is when I'm in my hometown where he got like 80% of the vote but goshdarnit they are such nice humble folks and just want people to be nice. by eliminating known dems there's like a 9 in 10 shot I'll be right! (that's like better than Biden's current odds FWIW)
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: john "teach me how to" dougie on October 20, 2020, 11:05:57 PM
Biden is loaded too....

He is.  According to Hunter, the big guy got half of everything he made from Barisma and China.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 20, 2020, 11:13:23 PM
Steve Dave is not a believer in the silent majority apparently
I’ve never met a Trump supporter that was very silent.


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You should talk to michigancat. He can eagle eye them from miles away.

Stop crying.

Walks like a duck, etc., etc., etc.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: tdaver on October 20, 2020, 11:56:07 PM
Yeah man, I'm not going to try to convince anyone to vote any way. However, not only am I a third party voter, but I'm a member of said third party. This is a real different beast though, it's really a crossroads in this country, there is a lot to lose. I do realize the stakes of this election means something different to everyone, but maybe even this is enough of a reason to change our course.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/7g0Jh4h5E1E[/youtube]
#ImWithMIR

Every other election I’ve railed against people who say voting third party is “throwing your vote away.” But this is a clear choice between reprimanding someone who has done immeasurable damage to this country or letting it slide.

Everyone who says they’d rather vote third party in this election is literally saying they are ok with what Trump has done and potentially will do.

What would you do if Gene Taylor said “Hey cat fans. I have to hire a new football coach.  Our only options are Ron Prince or Les Miles. Please send me your votes for one of those two.”?  I know what I’d do... start a campaign for someone else and then break a Bramlage sink in protest.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 21, 2020, 12:04:58 AM
I’m voting for Ron Prince in that scenario
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Trim on October 21, 2020, 12:10:11 AM
What would you do if Gene Taylor said “Hey cat fans. I have to hire a new football coach.  Our only options are Ron Prince or Les Miles. Please send me your votes for one of those two.”?  I know what I’d do... start a campaign for someone else and then break a Bramlage sink in protest.

That's a poor analogy.  If you want to stick with RP, it'd be that he as theoretically near the end of year 4 with the 4th year having gone ridiculously worse than the first shitty 3 to where KSU was at risk of somehow not even having football going forward if he kept at it, and the options were keep him or hire whoever was the most basic, old, safe out-of-work coach at the time.

And of course the choice would be to hire Coach Basic and at least end the crap show and reset normalcy for a more winning selection after a few years.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Spracne on October 21, 2020, 12:13:16 AM
Steve Dave is not a believer in the silent majority apparently
I’ve never met a Trump supporter that was very silent.


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You should talk to michigancat. He can eagle eye them from miles away.

Stop crying.

Walks like a duck, etc., etc., etc.

You have gravely insulted me, and I demand satisfaction.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: sys on October 21, 2020, 12:21:02 AM
i agree with ipa and tdaver that voting in a non-competitive state is entirely expressive, and one need not weigh any of the considerations with which voters in competitive states are burdened or privileged.

in several previous elections i've voted for presidential candidates i did not actually wish to win, because i thought it best allowed me to express the direction i would prefer politics to shift.  i did that in 2016, and don't regret it.

in 2020, i voted for biden because the most important message i most wished to express is complete rejection of trump, trumpism, the lawless corruption, cruelty and incompetence that have characterized his presidency and the falsity of the incoherent and ignorant idea that both candidates and current iterations of both parties are in any way moral equivalents.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: sys on October 21, 2020, 12:22:22 AM
That's a poor analogy.  If you want to stick with RP, it'd be that he as theoretically near the end of year 4 with the 4th year having gone ridiculously worse than the first shitty 3 to where KSU was at risk of somehow not even having football going forward if he kept at it, and the options were keep him or hire whoever was the most basic, old, safe out-of-work coach at the time.

And of course the choice would be to hire Coach Basic and at least end the crap show and reset normalcy for a more winning selection after a few years.

iirc, kstate did decide to rehire coach basic and it worked out ok.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Trim on October 21, 2020, 12:24:38 AM
That's a poor analogy.  If you want to stick with RP, it'd be that he as theoretically near the end of year 4 with the 4th year having gone ridiculously worse than the first shitty 3 to where KSU was at risk of somehow not even having football going forward if he kept at it, and the options were keep him or hire whoever was the most basic, old, safe out-of-work coach at the time.

And of course the choice would be to hire Coach Basic and at least end the crap show and reset normalcy for a more winning selection after a few years.

iirc, kstate did decide to rehire coach basic and it worked out ok.

Ha, I didn't even think of snyder as biden, but that works.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 21, 2020, 01:15:17 AM
i agree with ipa and tdaver that voting in a non-competitive state is entirely expressive, and one need not weigh any of the considerations with which voters in competitive states are burdened or privileged.

in several previous elections i've voted for presidential candidates i did not actually wish to win, because i thought it best allowed me to express the direction i would prefer politics to shift.  i did that in 2016, and don't regret it.

in 2020, i voted for biden because the most important message i most wished to express is complete rejection of trump, trumpism, the lawless corruption, cruelty and incompetence that have characterized his presidency and the falsity of the incoherent and ignorant idea that both candidates and current iterations of both parties are in any way moral equivalents.

Yeah, I totally forgot where ipa lives, crap vote for Barney, it doesn't matter a single bit. If I thought voting for hillz in '16 would have made a difference, I might, maybe, have been compelled to do so.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: puniraptor on October 21, 2020, 01:46:01 AM
in 2020, i voted for biden because the most important message i most wished to express is complete rejection of trump, trumpism, the lawless corruption, cruelty and incompetence that have characterized his presidency and the falsity of the incoherent and ignorant idea that both candidates and current iterations of both parties are in any way moral equivalents.

This is exactly my motivation. Pure repudiation. also i want to contribute to the margin of victory in the hopes of avoiding a controversial outcome
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 21, 2020, 05:55:16 AM
Yep, sys and mir, it is much easier to vote against the establishment when one side has a lock on it.

Senate race might have been competitive if DNC had backed Booker. Instead, they chose to bring Amy "I was a fighter pilot" McGrath. Pffffft. She brings nothing but DNC marching orders. I'd vote for Booker with your votes, too.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: sys on October 21, 2020, 06:15:47 AM
This is exactly my motivation. Pure repudiation. also i want to contribute to the margin of victory in the hopes of avoiding a controversial outcome

are you still considered a resident of a state?
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 21, 2020, 06:36:45 AM
If my 401K collapses, I'm kicking all of your margin of victory asses. ;)
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: steve dave on October 21, 2020, 07:10:25 AM
Hillary had a lead in the polls in 2016 and lost by a slim margin. Biden has a much bigger, much more stable lead in the polls in 2020. Pretty straightforward.

Yes I agree with you and Chingon that trump has a good chance of winning

If Trump wins, his chance of winning today is close to 100%. Same for  Biden. Think about what type of cosmic event would have to occur in the next two weeks to change the outcome.
Yeah, this thing is wrapped up one way or the other. Nothing happening in these last few minutes is going to swing any votes.


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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: michigancat on October 21, 2020, 07:44:59 AM
If my 401K collapses, I'm kicking all of your margin of victory asses. ;)
Do you think a Biden win might cause a stock market crash?
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: steve dave on October 21, 2020, 08:00:50 AM
a lot of people are saying the economy will tank michigancat

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1318898380421083137
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 21, 2020, 08:05:37 AM
I cast my vote a few days before 50 cent let me know about that, sucks man.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: star seed 7 on October 21, 2020, 08:29:44 AM
If my 401K collapses, I'm kicking all of your margin of victory asses. ;)
Do you think a Biden win might cause a stock market crash?

It's accepted fact in conservative circles that Biden is going to to confiscate 401k's.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Phil Titola on October 21, 2020, 08:31:35 AM
Anybody that ignores all that is Donald Trump and what he's shown you he is over 4 years because their 401k might drop a bit are really the worst people.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 21, 2020, 08:49:13 AM
If my 401K collapses, I'm kicking all of your margin of victory asses. ;)
Do you think a Biden win might cause a stock market crash?
I have no clue. Just message boarding.

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 21, 2020, 08:50:23 AM
If my 401K collapses, I'm kicking all of your margin of victory asses. ;)
Do you think a Biden win might cause a stock market crash?

It's accepted fact in conservative circles that Biden is going to to confiscate 401k's.
Ya. Gotta a couple of tweeters railing about no more 401k if Biden is elected.

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: IPA4Me on October 21, 2020, 08:51:17 AM
Anybody that ignores all that is Donald Trump and what he's shown you he is over 4 years because their 401k might drop a bit are really the worst people.
Markets come and go. I hope posters here are smart enough to realize that.

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Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 21, 2020, 08:59:55 AM
If the markets doing well under Trump didn't convince people that the president has no effect on them at all, then I don't know what possibly could.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: tdaver on October 21, 2020, 09:05:10 AM
i agree with ipa and tdaver that voting in a non-competitive state is entirely expressive, and one need not weigh any of the considerations with which voters in competitive states are burdened or privileged.

in several previous elections i've voted for presidential candidates i did not actually wish to win, because i thought it best allowed me to express the direction i would prefer politics to shift.  i did that in 2016, and don't regret it.

in 2020, i voted for biden because the most important message i most wished to express is complete rejection of trump, trumpism, the lawless corruption, cruelty and incompetence that have characterized his presidency and the falsity of the incoherent and ignorant idea that both candidates and current iterations of both parties are in any way moral equivalents.

Yes.  If I lived in a swing state, I would probably feel compelled to vote for Biden.  But my third party vote is still a strong anti-Trump statement.  I voted for the Repub candidate in every election prior to 2016.  Not getting my vote in two consecutive elections is more of an anti-Trump position than any left leaning voter for Biden.  And if this Trump regime is what the GOP really is, then I don’t anticipate voting for them in the future.  To be honest, moving to Utah has also influenced my drift toward third party voting at the local/state level.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: star seed 7 on October 21, 2020, 09:26:37 AM
So, I was very nervous in 16 and thought that in the end "good" people would reject trump. That didn't happen and now it's hard to relax even with all the indicators showing a clear Biden win.

Two things give me pause. 1) trump supporters absolutely lie to pollsters. I think this has moved the last 4 years from "shy" Trump supporters to now it's trolls thinking they are sabotaging the establishment. Who knows how big of a segment this is. 2) Biden is not doing much campaigning. It's obviously a different situation than 16, and I think enthusiasm to vote against trump is high enough to offset this.

I definitely feel more confident this election, but I won't at all be surprised to see trump win.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Phil Titola on October 21, 2020, 09:40:56 AM
So, I was very nervous in 16 and thought that in the end "good" people would reject trump. That didn't happen and now it's hard to relax even with all the indicators showing a clear Biden win.

Two things give me pause. 1) trump supporters absolutely lie to pollsters. I think this has moved the last 4 years from "shy" Trump supporters to now it's trolls thinking they are sabotaging the establishment. Who knows how big of a segment this is. 2) Biden is not doing much campaigning. It's obviously a different situation than 16, and I think enthusiasm to vote against trump is high enough to offset this.

I definitely feel more confident this election, but I won't at all be surprised to see trump win.

I think there are a lot of people still answering "voting for Trump" but in the end will just pull back and not vote.  Similar to HilDog in 16
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: star seed 7 on October 21, 2020, 09:43:18 AM
Peggy pos: in my libderp bubble I know quite a few people who have never voted or have not voted in a while that have made sure to be registered just to vote against trump
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 21, 2020, 10:24:35 AM
So, I was very nervous in 16 and thought that in the end "good" people would reject trump. That didn't happen and now it's hard to relax even with all the indicators showing a clear Biden win.

Two things give me pause. 1) trump supporters absolutely lie to pollsters. I think this has moved the last 4 years from "shy" Trump supporters to now it's trolls thinking they are sabotaging the establishment. Who knows how big of a segment this is. 2) Biden is not doing much campaigning. It's obviously a different situation than 16, and I think enthusiasm to vote against trump is high enough to offset this.

I definitely feel more confident this election, but I won't at all be surprised to see trump win.

I think there are a lot of people still answering "voting for Trump" but in the end will just pull back and not vote.  Similar to HilDog in 16

No, people lie to make themselves look better, not worse.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 21, 2020, 11:07:38 AM
I’d normally vote 3rd party or Tom or whoever, especially in a safe state, but it’s too important this time to run up the score and try to reduce the chances of anything mumped up happening and get back to semi-normal. Tom and others can have my vote next time it’s two relative normals running.

Yeah, no shot I'm voting for Kamala in '24.

It's more than a little bit likely she will be running against a Q candidate.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: star seed 7 on October 21, 2020, 11:13:06 AM
A lot can happen in 4 years but I don't see how republicans can avoid trump 40%'ing his way through the primary again. He's literally the leader of a cult.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: waks on October 21, 2020, 11:33:47 AM
A lot can happen in 4 years but I don't see how republicans can avoid trump 40%'ing his way through the primary again. He's literally the leader of a cult.
You really think he makes it another four years?
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Trim on October 21, 2020, 11:37:10 AM
My nightmare scenario is trump winning this year and the bumper sticker crowd told-you-so'n bernie's corpse or similar into the '24 nomination against trump or his designate.

I don't know if a normal biden winning this year will prompt republicans to stay extreme (or worse) with trump/similar in '24 or to put up a normal that they think has enough things to be the better choice among two normals.  But either way, I'd think we'd end up with a normal winning that one.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Phil Titola on October 21, 2020, 11:40:55 AM
A lot can happen in 4 years but I don't see how republicans can avoid trump 40%'ing his way through the primary again. He's literally the leader of a cult.
You really think he makes it another four years?

I want him to live a long time and face all that's coming but sadly no :(
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: cfbandyman on October 21, 2020, 12:10:49 PM
A lot can happen in 4 years but I don't see how republicans can avoid trump 40%'ing his way through the primary again. He's literally the leader of a cult.
You really think he makes it another four years?

I do, and he'll be even more incoherent and crazy then. By then Q and trump will be battling lizard people on the moon over the soul of flat earth trumpistan. Probably several govs and mayors will actually be abducted and help for ransom and trump will just keep saying there is very fine people on both sides of that negotiating table.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 21, 2020, 12:31:35 PM
I think his odds of surviving the next 4 years are a little under 50%.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: cfbandyman on October 21, 2020, 12:36:18 PM
I think his odds of surviving the next 4 years are a little under 50%.

With the even more decreased amount things he does to save his energy even more? Probably buying himself another 4-6 years of life if you ask me
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 21, 2020, 12:39:32 PM
I think his odds of surviving the next 4 years are a little under 50%.

With the even more decreased amount things he does to save his energy even more? Probably buying himself another 4-6 years of life if you ask me

His lungs are probably never going to function well again. He's obese and elderly. He bragged about doing well on a test given to people who have suffered a stroke. If anything, his odds are quite a bit worse than 50%.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: sys on October 21, 2020, 08:20:55 PM
there's a lot of discussion in the media and on twitter about dem voters being panicked about losing again, despite biden's huge lead.  little evidence of that here.  trump voters do seem to be maintaining some hope against all evidence, although our trump sample is small.

honestly, happy/surprised we were able to find six trump votes.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 21, 2020, 09:06:12 PM
If my 401K collapses, I'm kicking all of your margin of victory asses. ;)
Do you think a Biden win might cause a stock market crash?

It's accepted fact in conservative circles that Biden is going to to confiscate 401k's.
Ya. Gotta a couple of tweeters railing about no more 401k if Biden is elected.

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk

It's not just twitter randos but Wall Street is also claiming that, but they did the same thing in '08. Wall Street threatening this bullshit is nothing new.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: bucket on October 21, 2020, 09:08:25 PM
If my 401K collapses, I'm kicking all of your margin of victory asses. ;)
Do you think a Biden win might cause a stock market crash?

It's accepted fact in conservative circles that Biden is going to to confiscate 401k's.
Ya. Gotta a couple of tweeters railing about no more 401k if Biden is elected.

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk

It's not just twitter randos but Wall Street is also claiming that, but they did the same thing in '08. Wall Street threatening this bullshit is nothing new.

Fake news. Moody's and JPMorgan predict greater economic growth under Biden.

At least that's what hardcore lib, Paul Krugman tells me.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 21, 2020, 09:09:24 PM
I’d normally vote 3rd party or Tom or whoever, especially in a safe state, but it’s too important this time to run up the score and try to reduce the chances of anything mumped up happening and get back to semi-normal. Tom and others can have my vote next time it’s two relative normals running.

Yeah, no shot I'm voting for Kamala in '24.

It's more than a little bit likely she will be running against a Q candidate.

I'll bet you $10,000 that a Q candidate won't win the Republican nomination, what are you even saying?
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: bucket on October 21, 2020, 09:11:34 PM
I’d normally vote 3rd party or Tom or whoever, especially in a safe state, but it’s too important this time to run up the score and try to reduce the chances of anything mumped up happening and get back to semi-normal. Tom and others can have my vote next time it’s two relative normals running.

Yeah, no shot I'm voting for Kamala in '24.

It's more than a little bit likely she will be running against a Q candidate.

I'll bet you $10,000 that a Q candidate won't win the Republican nomination, what are you even saying?

MAGA controls the Republican electorate.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 21, 2020, 09:16:51 PM
If my 401K collapses, I'm kicking all of your margin of victory asses. ;)
Do you think a Biden win might cause a stock market crash?

It's accepted fact in conservative circles that Biden is going to to confiscate 401k's.
Ya. Gotta a couple of tweeters railing about no more 401k if Biden is elected.

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk

It's not just twitter randos but Wall Street is also claiming that, but they did the same thing in '08. Wall Street threatening this bullshit is nothing new.

Fake news. Moody's and JPMorgan predict greater economic growth under Biden.

At least that's what hardcore lib, Paul Krugman tells me.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp-500-dow-biden-blue-wave-2020-10-1029690331

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-regulation-biden-trump-election-11602601181?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/RYFl1Z1Drg

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-09-07/biden-plan-to-improve-401-k-plans-does-the-opposite?__twitter_impression=true



Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: bucket on October 21, 2020, 09:24:17 PM
If my 401K collapses, I'm kicking all of your margin of victory asses. ;)
Do you think a Biden win might cause a stock market crash?

It's accepted fact in conservative circles that Biden is going to to confiscate 401k's.
Ya. Gotta a couple of tweeters railing about no more 401k if Biden is elected.

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk

It's not just twitter randos but Wall Street is also claiming that, but they did the same thing in '08. Wall Street threatening this bullshit is nothing new.

Fake news. Moody's and JPMorgan predict greater economic growth under Biden.

At least that's what hardcore lib, Paul Krugman tells me.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp-500-dow-biden-blue-wave-2020-10-1029690331

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-regulation-biden-trump-election-11602601181?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/RYFl1Z1Drg

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-09-07/biden-plan-to-improve-401-k-plans-does-the-opposite?__twitter_impression=true

What I was referring to

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1311671868689125379
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 21, 2020, 09:25:57 PM
I’d normally vote 3rd party or Tom or whoever, especially in a safe state, but it’s too important this time to run up the score and try to reduce the chances of anything mumped up happening and get back to semi-normal. Tom and others can have my vote next time it’s two relative normals running.

Yeah, no shot I'm voting for Kamala in '24.

It's more than a little bit likely she will be running against a Q candidate.

I'll bet you $10,000 that a Q candidate won't win the Republican nomination, what are you even saying?

MAGA controls the Republican electorate.

Y'all just get your news from here? They've won like what 3, 4, 5 congressional primaries? Do you know how much of a leap that is to win the damn Republican Presidential nomination? crap can we at least see them win a single statewide race before we give them the Republican presidential nomination? The only Q person who even won a senate primary got 30,000 votes in Delaware. Let's slow down.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 21, 2020, 09:27:43 PM
If my 401K collapses, I'm kicking all of your margin of victory asses. ;)
Do you think a Biden win might cause a stock market crash?

It's accepted fact in conservative circles that Biden is going to to confiscate 401k's.
Ya. Gotta a couple of tweeters railing about no more 401k if Biden is elected.

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk

It's not just twitter randos but Wall Street is also claiming that, but they did the same thing in '08. Wall Street threatening this bullshit is nothing new.

Fake news. Moody's and JPMorgan predict greater economic growth under Biden.

At least that's what hardcore lib, Paul Krugman tells me.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp-500-dow-biden-blue-wave-2020-10-1029690331

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-regulation-biden-trump-election-11602601181?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/RYFl1Z1Drg

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-09-07/biden-plan-to-improve-401-k-plans-does-the-opposite?__twitter_impression=true

What I was referring to

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1311671868689125379

I'm not arguing that 401k will lose value under Biden, I simply said they're are people on Wall Street making that argument as a scare tactic.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: bucket on October 21, 2020, 09:30:57 PM
I’d normally vote 3rd party or Tom or whoever, especially in a safe state, but it’s too important this time to run up the score and try to reduce the chances of anything mumped up happening and get back to semi-normal. Tom and others can have my vote next time it’s two relative normals running.

Yeah, no shot I'm voting for Kamala in '24.

It's more than a little bit likely she will be running against a Q candidate.

I'll bet you $10,000 that a Q candidate won't win the Republican nomination, what are you even saying?

MAGA controls the Republican electorate.

Y'all just get your news from here? They've won like what 3, 4, 5 congressional primaries? Do you know how much of a leap that is to win the damn Republican Presidential nomination? crap can we at least see them win a single statewide race before we give them the Republican presidential nomination? The only Q person who even won a senate primary got 30,000 votes in Delaware. Let's slow down.

I'm judging this off of the 2016 Republican primary which, I believe, Trump won in a landslide. I feel like the tide is moving more in that direction. I hope that changes.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: wetwillie on October 21, 2020, 09:32:17 PM
Looks like MIR’s facts hurt Bucket’s feelings
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: bucket on October 21, 2020, 09:32:48 PM
Of course Wall Street is siding with Trump/Republicans.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: bucket on October 21, 2020, 09:35:06 PM
Looks like MIR’s facts hurt Bucket’s feelings

I may have responded to MIR's post wrong, but it would appear I'm supporting his argument.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: MakeItRain on October 21, 2020, 09:36:36 PM
Of course Wall Street is siding with Trump/Republicans.

 :cheers:

Looks like MIR’s facts hurt Bucket’s feelings

I may have responded to MIR's post wrong, but it would appear I'm supporting his argument.

He's busting your balls
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: bucket on October 21, 2020, 09:37:47 PM
Of course Wall Street is siding with Trump/Republicans.

 :cheers:

Looks like MIR’s facts hurt Bucket’s feelings

I may have responded to MIR's post wrong, but it would appear I'm supporting his argument.

He's busting your balls

Had a good day and had a kickball kind of night.
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: sys on October 22, 2020, 07:58:52 PM
i should have included options for 3rd party candidates in the poll.  they're extremely over-represented on this board.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1319436943533445120
Title: Re: new election poll
Post by: puniraptor on October 23, 2020, 01:18:29 AM
This is exactly my motivation. Pure repudiation. also i want to contribute to the margin of victory in the hopes of avoiding a controversial outcome

are you still considered a resident of a state?

yes i am a riley county ks ward 4 precinct 4 voter and taxpayer