goemaw.com
General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on May 26, 2020, 06:41:02 PM
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results will be from worldometers, midnight cst.
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this is a tough one, my guess is right around a border
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this is a tough one, my guess is right around a border
no fence sitting in this poll.
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I VOTED
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Recent trend would say >160 is nearly impossible but I still cast my vote for it.
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115-130 :frown:
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145-160
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I think we'll be at the lowest end
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I think we'll be at the lowest end
yep I guessed ~1500/day. depends on how quickly people die from memorial day outings. what a fun topic.
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I think we'll be at the lowest end
yep I guessed ~1500/day. depends on how quickly people die from memorial day outings. what a fun topic.
I sure hope I'm wrong, I keep voting for what I think is an overshoot, and ending up right. :(
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Recent trend would say >160 is nearly impossible but I still cast my vote for it.
Figured the 130k was about the par for the poll :dunno:
The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
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eff, i forgot to bump this earlier. only an hour left to vote.
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Recent trend would say >160 is nearly impossible but I still cast my vote for it.
Figured the 130k was about the par for the poll :dunno:
The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
Struggle to get to it or struggle to stay under? We're already almost to 105k and it isn't even June yet.
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The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
Struggle to get to it or struggle to stay under? We're already almost to 105k and it isn't even June yet.
i dunno if it was apparent from the categories, but my over/under was 130k. looks like we got 11 voters for under that and 14 for over, so goEMAW is broadly in agreement with that estimate.
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The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
Struggle to get to it or struggle to stay under? We're already almost to 105k and it isn't even June yet.
i dunno if it was apparent from the categories, but my over/under was 130k. looks like we got 11 voters for under that and 14 for over, so goEMAW is broadly in agreement with that estimate.
Depends on weather (?) we see a continued drop or not. Trends are friends rn.
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Recent trend would say >160 is nearly impossible but I still cast my vote for it.
Figured the 130k was about the par for the poll :dunno:
The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
Struggle to get to it or struggle to stay under? We're already almost to 105k and it isn't even June yet.
Struggle to get to it. The IHME estimate says US deaths should be between 119k and 131k by July 1st, most likely hitting around 124k.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Like @DQ12 says, the way things are trending it appears we will stay under 130k.
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I think the 130-145 seems like a lock at this point. 115k or so to start Monday and 22 days left. I think you would have to average under 750 per day through June to keep it under 130k.
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Anyone think we will be able to call this at the end of next week for the 115k to 130k bracket?
no.
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The way things are trending, we'll struggle to get to 130k, IMO.
Struggle to get to it or struggle to stay under? We're already almost to 105k and it isn't even June yet.
i dunno if it was apparent from the categories, but my over/under was 130k. looks like we got 11 voters for under that and 14 for over, so goEMAW is broadly in agreement with that estimate.
Depends on weather (?) we see a continued drop or not. Trends are friends rn.
FWIW, trends continue to be friends. Over the last month, the 7 day average has fallen 10-20 percent week over week, currently down to 829.
Hopefully that continues. If today goes like I'm expecting (<400), it should be the lowest daily death count since March 27. Pending a second wave, I don't expect to see another day of >1000.
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Florida may have a problem...
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Florida may have a problem...
Eh maybe...but Florida's 7 day avg is still about half as high as it was during its peak (which was about a month ago), though higher than it was a week ago.
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on track to go down to the wire on this one. 13 days left. per dq12, averaged 739 deaths per day last week (eyeballing the first couple days of this week, looks like the death count continues to fall).
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on track to go down to the wire on this one. 13 days left. per dq12, averaged 739 deaths per day last week (eyeballing the first couple days of this week, looks like the death count continues to fall).
Down to 659 now.
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i'm not quite ready to call it yet, but it's looking pretty unlikely that we'll get over 130k. six days to go.
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Down to the wire :ohno:
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I safely overshot, so good news!
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I safely overshot, so good news!
:thumbs:
Things have gone about like I expected them to this month (if a little better than I expected). TBH, I'm a little nervous about the coming weeks depending on the severity of the new infection spikes in some of the notable hot spots. I'm hoping a lot of it is related to testing demographics, but hospitalization numbers in some spots are making me sweat a little. Lots of noisy data rn.
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Need a poll on when we expect/hope for a vaccination by
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Need a poll on when we expect/hope for a vaccination by
that's a good idea. you should make that poll.
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My first overshoot!
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Down to the wire :ohno:
127640 right now with four days (and a few hours) to go. the weekend should keep it under, but it really is tight. if some rando state releases some backlogged nursing home deaths or something that's probably all it will take.
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Doesn't look like the 130K threshold will be crossed in June:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
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It was pretty close tho.
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Still #1, though.
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Doesn't look like the 130K threshold will be crossed in June:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
nope, although i'll give it until the deadline tonight, because it's close enough that an anomalous data release from a state could move it over.
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Doesn't look like the 130K threshold will be crossed in June:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
nope, although i'll give it until the deadline tonight, because it's close enough that an anomalous data release from a state could move it over.
oh wtf we're going over - we're 14 away. what happened?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
New York City Department of Health added a note to their data update- "On June 30, the count of New Yorkers who have died of COVID-19 increased by 692. Most of that increase is due to new information we received from the NYS Department of Health about city residents who died outside the city. The vast majority of these deaths occurred more than three weeks ago." Worldometer has adjusted New York State history accordingly.
:frown:
Not fair.
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Look at the hearty Texas folk refusing to die.
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and we're over. the 130-145k'ers take the win.
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Good to see the rate slowing a bit
Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk
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oh hell yeah
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I lost
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:woot:
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Will there be a 7.0 poll for July?
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Will there be a 7.0 poll for July?
yes.