goemaw.com
General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on March 29, 2020, 01:06:40 PM
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currently at ~ 2300 deaths.
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What percentage/ how many Americans test positive/get this thing?
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140 Kansans :frown:
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What percentage/ how many Americans test positive/get this thing?
15%
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after the emergency is over, it will be interesting to see antibody tests to see how many people actually got this thing in order to estimate a true death rate. only sick people and close contacts will actually be tested for the virus
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https://twitter.com/juddlegum/status/1244394427805769728
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after the emergency is over, it will be interesting to see antibody tests to see how many people actually got this thing in order to estimate a true death rate. only sick people and close contacts will actually be tested for the virus
Yeah.
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https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/status/1244608971954180097
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https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/status/1244608971954180097
goEMAW's an optimistic bunch
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Quite the pivot from churches full on Easter
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Quite the pivot from churches full on Easter
They're a "we're always at war with Eastasia" after being at war with Eurasia bunch so, no problem for them.
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https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/status/1244608971954180097
This seems like a throw out a big number to scare some idiots to go inside.
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https://twitter.com/NorbertElekes/status/1244779883340980226
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https://twitter.com/NorbertElekes/status/1244779883340980226
Lots of folks learning about exponential growth this month
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It's going to be ugly. Doubling rate at 3 days.
Let's say it stays there for 30 days. That's 10 doubles. 3M+ in a month.
Not looking good, folks.
Edit: I hope it doesn't stay at that rate but I'm afraid it will.
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It won’t
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I hope you're right SD. Pray it's a short lived doubling rate and we flatten out.
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I mean infection rate probably has/will, but the ship has sailed on us getting a good figure on that. Death rate will for sure slow down in April tho.
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We'll probably double for two-three weeks. It really looks like with this thing it's 2 weeks to see all the cases manifest, and then an additional 2 weeks to see the deaths from it. The tougher part of this whole thing though is that there is so much unevenness in the response nation wide that when an area like let's say NY peaks, other places like FL, GA, etc, are still on their way to their peaks.
And yes, lots of people are going to learn what exponential growth looks like, and why at the beginning "this doesn't look like a big deal" gets out of hand really quickly.
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Let's take KC metro as a case study. Big groups were shut down around the 17th, many offices started sending people home the Friday before that. The main metro counties announced their stay home orders on the 23rd.
Let's assume a lot of the population has been better at staying at home and limiting their exposure (I know that's not been 100% great), given 14 day incubation period shouldn't we be seeing an impact in the numbers starting now and into next week? If not, there is going to be a lot of questions concerning the benefits of distancing.
edit, of course you're going to have more confirmed cases as testing gets better but still overall I'd think we'd see a dip in the numbers soon.
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That's one reason I've been proud of the kc metro to not only act fairly early but for the most part unified.
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That's one reason I've been proud of the kc metro to not only act fairly early but for the most part unified.
Me too. Announced earlier than a lot of much worse places numbers wise. Great to see the bi-state cooperating on this.
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Let's take KC metro as a case study. Big groups were shut down around the 17th, many offices started sending people home the Friday before that. The main metro counties announced their stay home orders on the 23rd.
Let's assume a lot of the population has been better at staying at home and limiting their exposure (I know that's not been 100% great), given 14 day incubation period shouldn't we be seeing an impact in the numbers starting now and into next week? If not, there is going to be a lot of questions concerning the benefits of distancing.
edit, of course you're going to have more confirmed cases as testing gets better but still overall I'd think we'd see a dip in the numbers soon.
That's going to be a bit of a fallacy with this for a while. There won't really be a "dip" more of a sustain (constant days of 100 new cases in the metro are per day or w/e for example). What we really need to see if the growth in cases per day not increase, that change will be the real first sign and you are starting to see that a bit in the US's total numbers. But even when you look at Italy, France, Spain, they still are having "sustained" amounts of new cases, the general reversal isn't going to be felt for a while, let alone next week.
Do agree I am pretty happy with how the KC metro, and especially KS has been on this. Took a lot of bold strokes earlier than other areas and it hopefully will prove itself out.
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Let's take KC metro as a case study. Big groups were shut down around the 17th, many offices started sending people home the Friday before that. The main metro counties announced their stay home orders on the 23rd.
Let's assume a lot of the population has been better at staying at home and limiting their exposure (I know that's not been 100% great), given 14 day incubation period shouldn't we be seeing an impact in the numbers starting now and into next week? If not, there is going to be a lot of questions concerning the benefits of distancing.
edit, of course you're going to have more confirmed cases as testing gets better but still overall I'd think we'd see a dip in the numbers soon.
That's going to be a bit of a fallacy with this for a while. There won't really be a "dip" more of a sustain (constant days of 100 new cases in the metro are per day or w/e for example). What we really need to see if the growth in cases per day not increase, that change will be the real first sign and you are starting to see that a bit in the US's total numbers. But even when you look at Italy, France, Spain, they still are having "sustained" amounts of new cases, the general reversal isn't going to be felt for a while, let alone next week.
Do agree I am pretty happy with how the KC metro, and especially KS has been on this. Took a lot of bold strokes earlier than other areas and it hopefully will prove itself out.
I meant a dip in new daily cases.
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Let's take KC metro as a case study. Big groups were shut down around the 17th, many offices started sending people home the Friday before that. The main metro counties announced their stay home orders on the 23rd.
Let's assume a lot of the population has been better at staying at home and limiting their exposure (I know that's not been 100% great), given 14 day incubation period shouldn't we be seeing an impact in the numbers starting now and into next week? If not, there is going to be a lot of questions concerning the benefits of distancing.
edit, of course you're going to have more confirmed cases as testing gets better but still overall I'd think we'd see a dip in the numbers soon.
That's going to be a bit of a fallacy with this for a while. There won't really be a "dip" more of a sustain (constant days of 100 new cases in the metro are per day or w/e for example). What we really need to see if the growth in cases per day not increase, that change will be the real first sign and you are starting to see that a bit in the US's total numbers. But even when you look at Italy, France, Spain, they still are having "sustained" amounts of new cases, the general reversal isn't going to be felt for a while, let alone next week.
Do agree I am pretty happy with how the KC metro, and especially KS has been on this. Took a lot of bold strokes earlier than other areas and it hopefully will prove itself out.
I meant a dip in new daily cases.
That's more than fair, but I think that's still a bit off. Italy's first batch of #s came in today for and they continue a slow improvement. But that dip is very drawn out when you look at it
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Let's take KC metro as a case study. Big groups were shut down around the 17th, many offices started sending people home the Friday before that. The main metro counties announced their stay home orders on the 23rd.
Let's assume a lot of the population has been better at staying at home and limiting their exposure (I know that's not been 100% great), given 14 day incubation period shouldn't we be seeing an impact in the numbers starting now and into next week? If not, there is going to be a lot of questions concerning the benefits of distancing.
edit, of course you're going to have more confirmed cases as testing gets better but still overall I'd think we'd see a dip in the numbers soon.
That's going to be a bit of a fallacy with this for a while. There won't really be a "dip" more of a sustain (constant days of 100 new cases in the metro are per day or w/e for example). What we really need to see if the growth in cases per day not increase, that change will be the real first sign and you are starting to see that a bit in the US's total numbers. But even when you look at Italy, France, Spain, they still are having "sustained" amounts of new cases, the general reversal isn't going to be felt for a while, let alone next week.
Do agree I am pretty happy with how the KC metro, and especially KS has been on this. Took a lot of bold strokes earlier than other areas and it hopefully will prove itself out.
I meant a dip in new daily cases.
That's more than fair, but I think that's still a bit off. Italy's first batch of #s came in today for and they continue a slow improvement. But that dip is very drawn out when you look at it
I think KC was more proactive than Italy which makes me hopeful we see new cases go down faster.
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TBH I'm not even looking at cases. Death rate seems to be the tell.
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Even the death rates seem unreliable based on some of the info that came out yesterday on what Italy/France were and weren't including in COVID death numbers
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Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?
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What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?
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Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?
Well to be fair, KSUW is a gigantic POS and a dumbass. So....
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What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?
I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.
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What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?
I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.
look at these fancy pants getting multiple tests and most can't sniff a one.
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What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?
I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.
are we doing that - retesting people that tested positive after they recover?
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What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?
I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.
look at these fancy pants getting multiple tests and most can't sniff a one.
If they test negative it’s not as deadly and we can open the country back up faster!
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What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?
I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.
are we doing that - retesting people that tested positive after they recover?
It would irresponsible if we didn’t. The length of time they are contagious varies from person to person. I have no facts on the retesting but seems pretty basic logic to assume we have been.
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What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?
I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.
are we doing that - retesting people that tested positive after they recover?
It would irresponsible if we didn’t. The length of time they are contagious varies from person to person. I have no facts on the retesting but seems pretty basic logic to assume we have been.
Sadly basic logic has no place in our plan.
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I wouldn't place much faith in the "recovered" numbers.
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I don't know if there is a set criteria on what counts as recovered, but I think it's definitely a good idea to be testing infected people for coronavirus or ideally for antibodies before declaring them recovered. More of a useful metric than testing someone with mild symptoms IMO, cause regardless of whether you test positive they're going to tell you to go home, self quarantine, and come back if it gets worse.
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Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?
I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020...Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
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You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?
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I think this is obviously but in a perfect world anyone who wants to get tested should. I’m seen reports and heard of people that want it but are turned away, even when they have symptoms. A gigantic issue with that is if they have only mild symptoms without a test, a few days after they feel better they will probably leave. If they are positive and think it’s just something else the likelihood of addition spreads increases dramatically.
That’s what pisses me off so much about this absolute cluster eff of handling by the Trump admin. People who can’t get a test are probably leaving quarantine early and inadvertently continuing the spread. So rough ridin' frustrating when we had so much lead time knowing about it.
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Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?
I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020...Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
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You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?
Exactly 2 weeks ago and we are already over half way there on the first day of April!
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What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?
I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.
are we doing that - retesting people that tested positive after they recover?
It would irresponsible if we didn’t. The length of time they are contagious varies from person to person. I have no facts on the retesting but seems pretty basic logic to assume we have been.
I've seen two different medical professionals on television today, state they have no idea how long someone is contagious. Would they just test over and over again until there's a negative, what's the protocol for this.
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I wouldn't place much faith in the "recovered" numbers.
Yeah, that would mean, if TBT is correct in what's classified as recovered, that 94% of people in this country who have contracted the rona have recovered. Not just 94% of the people who have it right now, but 94% of the people who have contracted it in the two months it's been here. That doesn't seem close to right, especially given 25% of those who contract it are asymptomatic.
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The recovered numbers from Johns Hopkins, like the infected numbers, are going to be way less than the numbers in reality.
And again, not sure how available testing is, but I think antibody tests should indicate if you had COVID-19 and are no longer at risk of transmitting it.
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bump. i'm pretty likely to get my prediction proven wrong in the next 15 days.
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Do a new poll and ask if Covid 19 will be the leading cause of death in the US this year.
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Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
i don't think it will be.
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I thought I was being unnecessarily pessimistic when I answered this, but it looks like I'll be right
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Looks like we are gonna be a bit over 10k deaths by the end of....May. Pretty fitting the gigantic dumbass and POS KSUW hasn’t even logged into this blog in 2 weeks. Such a rough ridin' little bitch.
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Wasn't his adjusted estimate around 40k by August or "a mild flu season"? If memory serves me correctly he declared victory because he'd have been closer than the original estimates from the IHME model (which I believe were 100k to 200k deaths with social distancing measures by August).
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Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
i don't think it will be.
Would have to be 2500 or so deaths every day until the end of the year. You have to think it will kill a good percentage of people who would have gone this year in the cancer or heart disease bucket.
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You have to think it will kill a good percentage of people who would have gone this year in the cancer or heart disease bucket.
keep in mind that maybe 3% or so of americans have been or are currently infected.
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the us went over 100k dead from covid 19 today, so this poll can now be called for the 100-200k group. not great wisdom of the goEMAW.com here, as most respondents chose 25-50 or 50-100k. congratulations to the prescient eight.
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:gocho:
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(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FrighteningSpectacularAfricangroundhornbill-max-1mb.gif)
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I've got some pretty good guesses who the 3 users who said less than 25k are. :lol:
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Does KSUW post here anymore?
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I've got some pretty good guesses who the 3 users who said less than 25k are. :lol:
I was one of them. I put too much faith in modern medicine and science to find a silver bullet.
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I was right. :frown:
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I've got some pretty good guesses who the 3 users who said less than 25k are. :lol:
I was one of them. I put too much faith in modern medicine and science to find a silver bullet.
I was 25 to 50k for same reason.
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I've got some pretty good guesses who the 3 users who said less than 25k are. :lol:
I was one of them. I put too much faith in modern medicine and science to find a silver bullet.
I was 25 to 50k for same reason.
Those are better reasons than thinking it's all a hoax or that it's just like the flu.
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I've got some pretty good guesses who the 3 users who said less than 25k are. :lol:
I was one of them. I put too much faith in modern medicine and science to find a silver bullet.
I was 25 to 50k for same reason.
Same. I thought the original projections were worst case scenarios. :frown:
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I didn't vote because I thought there were too many unknowns.
That said, who could have expected back in March that we'd be in the top tier of death rates internationally? It's pathetic.
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I didn't vote because I thought there were too many unknowns.
That said, who could have expected back in March that we'd be in the top tier of death rates internationally? It's pathetic.
there were signs!
(https://i.imgur.com/lq4IEic.png)
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I was right
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I'm glad I was wrong and the curve flattened. I was one of the three over 200K.