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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: Institutional Control on June 18, 2019, 09:46:46 PM

Title: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: Institutional Control on June 18, 2019, 09:46:46 PM
There are 22 GOP seats up and 12 Dems, I think.




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Title: Re: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on June 18, 2019, 10:43:41 PM
I think the chances are pretty strong.
Title: Re: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: sys on June 19, 2019, 01:19:40 AM
from random tweets i've seen, i'd say it's probably 35% or so, with a large +/-.


i don't think that accounts for manchin though, so the number should really be lower.
Title: Re: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: steve dave on June 19, 2019, 03:16:26 AM
Long shot


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Title: Re: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: Institutional Control on June 19, 2019, 02:08:40 PM
According to 210towin.com (https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/) the 2020 Senate breaks down like this.

Democrat seats not up for re-election in 2020 - 33
Republican seats not up for re-election in 2020 - 31

Democrat seats that are safe in 2020 - 6

Delaware   Chris Coons   
Illinois   Dick Durbin
Massachusetts   Ed Markey
New Jersey   Cory Booker
Oregon   Jim Merkley   
Rhode Island   Jack Reed

Republican seats that are safe in 2020 (10)

Alaska   Dan Sullivan
Arkansas   Tom Cotton
Idaho   Jim Risch
Louisiana    Bill Cassidy
Nebraska   Ben Sasse
Oklahoma   Jim Inhofe
South Carolina   Lindsey Graham
South Dakota   Mike Rounds
West Virginia   Shelley Capito
Wyoming   Mike Enzi - not running for re-election
-
Democrat seats that could be contested in 2020 - 6

Alabama   Doug Jones
Michigan   Gary Peters
Minnesota   Tina Smith
New Hampshire   Jeanne Shaheen
New Mexico   Tom Udall - not running for re-election
Virginia   Mark Warner

Republican seats that may be contested in 2020 - 12

Arizona   Martha McSalley
Colorado   Cory Gardner
Georgia   David Perdue
Iowa   Joni Ernst
Kansas   Pat Roberts - not running for re-election
Kentucky   Mitch McConnell
Maine   Susan Collins
Mississippi   Cindy Hyde-Smith
Montana   Steve Daines
North Carolina   Thom Tillis
Tennessee   Lamar Alexander - not running for re-election
Texas   John Cornyn
Title: Re: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: Institutional Control on June 19, 2019, 02:21:50 PM
I can only assume they're expecting Beto to run against Cornyn in Texas.  If he didn't beat Cruz I don't see anyway he'll beat Cornyn.
Title: Re: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: star seed 7 on June 19, 2019, 02:29:58 PM
D will lose 1, r will lose 3-4
Title: Re: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: sys on June 19, 2019, 07:35:02 PM
Quote from: Batt BcKee on June 19, 2019, 02:21:50 PM
I can only assume they're expecting Beto to run against Cornyn in Texas.

0% chance beto will run for the senate in 2020.


the senate race will mirror the presidential race.  it's a long shot, but definitely a non-zero % that dems win both the presidential and senate races in texas.  the senate candidate (it is mj hegar) doesn't matter much, the presidential race will drive turnout.
Title: Re: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: Spracne on June 19, 2019, 08:11:21 PM
Quote from: libstradamus on June 19, 2019, 02:29:58 PM
D will lose 1, r will lose 3-4
Are they eliminating 4-5 Senate seats?
Title: Re: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: steve dave on June 19, 2019, 09:24:14 PM
Quote from: Spracne on June 19, 2019, 08:11:21 PM
Quote from: libstradamus on June 19, 2019, 02:29:58 PM
D will lose 1, r will lose 3-4
Are they eliminating 4-5 Senate seats?

lmao, owned


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Title: Re: What are the chances the Dems take back the Senate?
Post by: SkinnyBenny on June 19, 2019, 10:40:47 PM
‘pparently spracs don’t know ‘bout that coming libertarian wave