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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Jerome Tang Coaches Kansas State Basketball => Topic started by: kso_FAN on February 13, 2019, 12:22:27 PM
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I'm just going to put this in one place and master thread this thing. Sorry I haven't been around over here as much. :blindfold:
I'll start off with my first Bracketology of the season! (seeds 1-5)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzSy9m0VAAA5y57.png:large)
And the updated Big 12 breakdown according to today's NET
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzTYYI3U0AASHSs.png:large)
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Season and Big 12 advanced stats.
(https://i.ibb.co/qkgJB5S/Season-ADV.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/ZWjCqQK/Big-12-ADV.png)
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Thanks fan. It looks like projecting seeds will be a nightmare this year.
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Thanks fan. It looks like projecting seeds will be a nightmare this year.
It is going to be a mess. It is kind of fun to put the numbers in a chart and figure it out on your own, even then you find yourself going back and forth.
I nearly bumped KU down to a 4 because they have to be looked at as the Doke-less version. They still have some nice wins without him, but not nearly as impressive. If they end up losing Vick too, that should be another hit on their resume. Granted, they are still rolling out 5 Top 100 guys on that team.
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4 seed? SLAP TO THE WHOLE FACE!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Thanks fan. It looks like projecting seeds will be a nightmare this year.
It is going to be a mess. It is kind of fun to put the numbers in a chart and figure it out on your own, even then you find yourself going back and forth.
I nearly bumped KU down to a 4 because they have to be looked at as the Doke-less version. They still have some nice wins without him, but not nearly as impressive. If they end up losing Vick too, that should be another hit on their resume. Granted, they are still rolling out 5 Top 100 guys on that team.
How closely are they expected to follow the NET? Just deviate when team composition isn't reflected by overall season numbers, or just use as one of many factors?
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Thanks fan. It looks like projecting seeds will be a nightmare this year.
It is going to be a mess. It is kind of fun to put the numbers in a chart and figure it out on your own, even then you find yourself going back and forth.
I nearly bumped KU down to a 4 because they have to be looked at as the Doke-less version. They still have some nice wins without him, but not nearly as impressive. If they end up losing Vick too, that should be another hit on their resume. Granted, they are still rolling out 5 Top 100 guys on that team.
How closely are they expected to follow the NET? Just deviate when team composition isn't reflected by overall season numbers, or just use as one of many factors?
From what I've read and heard, the NET will be used just like the RPI last year, its just supposed to be a more comprehensive metric. The primary purpose is to set the Quad wins/losses for each team and the SOS for each team. The selection process will be similar with team sheets that break out OOC and league games, wins and losses, road and home, and other metrics like kenpom. Perhaps since it should be a better metric, they will use it some when comparing and setting the S curve and stuff, but I'm not sure on that. I don't think they'll just look at the raw number much, just like they didn't with the RPI.
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Do you have a off/def big 12 ranking spreadsheet? Would be interested to see how KSU measures up to the other teams in efficiency etc...
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Do you have a off/def big 12 ranking spreadsheet? Would be interested to see how KSU measures up to the other teams in efficiency etc...
Here is the one from this weekend. I'll make a new one tonight after the OSU-Tech game.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzD6DKVUYAE5MDV.jpg:large)
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Do you have a off/def big 12 ranking spreadsheet? Would be interested to see how KSU measures up to the other teams in efficiency etc...
Here is the one from this weekend. I'll make a new one tonight after the OSU-Tech game.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzD6DKVUYAE5MDV.jpg:large)
You’re the best.
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Thanks fan. It looks like projecting seeds will be a nightmare this year.
It is going to be a mess. It is kind of fun to put the numbers in a chart and figure it out on your own, even then you find yourself going back and forth.
I nearly bumped KU down to a 4 because they have to be looked at as the Doke-less version. They still have some nice wins without him, but not nearly as impressive. If they end up losing Vick too, that should be another hit on their resume. Granted, they are still rolling out 5 Top 100 guys on that team.
How closely are they expected to follow the NET? Just deviate when team composition isn't reflected by overall season numbers, or just use as one of many factors?
From what I've read and heard, the NET will be used just like the RPI last year, its just supposed to be a more comprehensive metric. The primary purpose is to set the Quad wins/losses for each team and the SOS for each team. The selection process will be similar with team sheets that break out OOC and league games, wins and losses, road and home, and other metrics like kenpom. Perhaps since it should be a better metric, they will use it some when comparing and setting the S curve and stuff, but I'm not sure on that. I don't think they'll just look at the raw number much, just like they didn't with the RPI.
Gotcha. I'll be interested to see how it goes. It seems to me that with supposed "better" rankings they may lean on them more but who knows.
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Gotcha. I'll be interested to see how it goes. It seems to me that with supposed "better" rankings they may lean on them more but who knows.
True and if it's truly better they should. I do like it much better than the RPI, but adding a capped MOV when you already have efficiency differential is very redundant. I think the other parts make some sense though, but the NET seems to line up pretty well with most other metrics that include efficiency.
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Said it in another thread but don't know where, but wanted to mention that you've done great on the radio. I hopped into one segment midway and thought "this guy knows his stuff" before realizing it was you. Of course your numbers are good, but you also do well on the radio.
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I was unaware Houston had a top 6 NET rating. Seems like they’ve have flown under the radar a bit.
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I was unaware Houston had a top 6 NET rating. Seems like they’ve have flown under the radar a bit.
Sampson!
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Said it in another thread but don't know where, but wanted to mention that you've done great on the radio. I hopped into one segment midway and thought "this guy knows his stuff" before realizing it was you. Of course your numbers are good, but you also do well on the radio.
ditto.
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So is the bracketology your prediction or your personal ranking _Fan?
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So is the bracketology your prediction or your personal ranking _Fan?
It is my picks for the top 5 seeds for the bracket if the season ended right now.
Said it in another thread but don't know where, but wanted to mention that you've done great on the radio. I hopped into one segment midway and thought "this guy knows his stuff" before realizing it was you. Of course your numbers are good, but you also do well on the radio.
ditto.
Thank you. Its been a lot of fun and I'm just honored Kurtz asked me to have a little segment on The Game/Powercat Gameday. Kurtz, Mason Voth, and Mitch Fortner do a great job on KMAN.
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I was unaware Houston had a top 6 NET rating. Seems like they’ve have flown under the radar a bit.
Sampson!
Man, I totally forgot!
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I was unaware Houston had a top 6 NET rating. Seems like they’ve have flown under the radar a bit.
Sampson!
They are pretty darn good. The American isn't very strong of a league but they'll be a tough out.
Remember Rob Gray last year? Loved him.
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Do you have a off/def big 12 ranking spreadsheet? Would be interested to see how KSU measures up to the other teams in efficiency etc...
Here is the one from this weekend. I'll make a new one tonight after the OSU-Tech game.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzD6DKVUYAE5MDV.jpg:large)
Interesting. Just curious: What's your rationale for "ranking" possessions from fewest to most? Just convenience? It doesn't seem to me that number of possessions is a normative factor the way the others are.
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Interesting. Just curious: What's your rationale for "ranking" possessions from fewest to most? Just convenience? It doesn't seem to me that number of possessions is a normative factor the way the others are.
Actually I accidentally flipped it on this chart, I usually sort pace fastest to slowest. Yes, its really just informational about how fast/slow each team plays, there isn't a "better or worse" pace.
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Updated Big 12 chart.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzVyqIlXQAINjwr.png:large)
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Finally cracked the top 25 in the advanced metric rankings!
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Thanks fan. It looks like projecting seeds will be a nightmare this year.
it looks like that now, but everybody has 6-7 more games + conf tourney to help sort things out
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Finally cracked the top 25 in the advanced metric rankings!
There is a reason for that.
(https://i.ibb.co/NxxNGX1/OOC-ADV.png)
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Fools Gold!
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Thanks fan. It looks like projecting seeds will be a nightmare this year.
it looks like that now, but everybody has 6-7 more games + conf tourney to help sort things out
I'm not confident the NCAA knows how heavily they'll lean on the NET and how they'll deal with conflicts with the other data points. I don't think it helps that they didn't do a media mock session this year.
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i think because ksu is the leader of the conference, pace should be from slowest to fastest.
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Today kind of sucked, but here are the updated league stats.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzkryXtX4AAWRnA.png:large)
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ku is going to win it again this year aren't they? :frown:
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ku is going to win it again this year aren't they? :frown:
Putting a lot of stake in beating WVU huh?
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Interesting to me at least; more 3s than ever but makes and efficiency are down.
NCAA averages for most advanced stats in the kenpom era:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzsGHYdW0AA0gyI.jpg:large)
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Interesting to me at least; more 3s than ever but makes and efficiency are down.
NCAA averages for most advanced stats in the kenpom era:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzsGHYdW0AA0gyI.jpg:large)
Saw your tweet about this... any thoughts about whether the efficiency may follow the volume in a couple of years? The earlier high volume NBA teams weren’t particularly efficient either, though this is a much bigger sample.
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Interesting to me at least; more 3s than ever but makes and efficiency are down.
NCAA averages for most advanced stats in the kenpom era:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzsGHYdW0AA0gyI.jpg:large)
Saw your tweet about this... any thoughts about whether the efficiency may follow the volume in a couple of years? The earlier high volume NBA teams weren’t particularly efficient either, though this is a much bigger sample.
That's probably part of it, it just seems like a significant drop fairly suddenly.
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How about a bunch of individual Big 12 numbers...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzyjjGhXcAA15Rj.png:large)
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Barry's EFG being so high is crazy for all the quote unquote bad shots he takes
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Awesome. Just for conference games, or is this all season?
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Awesome. Just for conference games, or is this all season?
Just conference games.
Here are my top 5 seeds as of this morning.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dz3zZr7XcAAE6Fs.png:large)
If you've never pulled the data and tried to slot teams yourself you realize how difficult it is. I've heard many smart people advocate for Strength of Record as a primary tool for picking and slotting teams and I like it a lot, but I also tried to look at Quad wins, road wins, SOS, etc. You just find yourself going back and forth.
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The Big 12!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0JL5chWoAAQLvT.png:large)
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should make TCU color pink...confuses me too often
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3point shooting and offenes :eek:
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3point shooting and offenes :eek:
2nd best 3 point shooting team in the Big 12!
How about some updated improvement/regression charts. Top is full season, bottom is Big 12 only.
(https://i.ibb.co/kyj225k/Season-Individual-Improvement.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/S5ftzMY/Big-12-Individual-Improvement.png)
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Kenpom still have us going 13-5 and wining outright?
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Kenpom still have us going 13-5 and wining outright?
kenpom now has us sharing with Tech at 13-5.
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My "if I was on the committee and using what the NCAA says they value" first 6 seeds.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0anLTlXcAM9oxO.png:large)
If the first 6 seeds were picked and seeded by bracketmatrix.com:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0aoscoX0AENgpK.png:large)
If the NET picked and seeded the first 6 seeds:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0anYKQXQAAs0Q6.png:large)
If I could pick a metric to pick and seed I'd pick the SOR (Strength of Record):
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0anm_uXcAAhBpO.png:large)
Also, kenpom answered a question of mine from twitter on his podcast this week. https://kenpom.libsyn.com/episode-19
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good grief please avoid the 5, play down to the 6
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Pretty striking
https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1101230309025173510
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Pretty striking
https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1101230309025173510
Man, that's crazy.
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well, how do the writers of this attack ad define what is classified as most common?
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Pretty striking
https://twitter.com/kirkgoldsberry/status/1101230309025173510
Stupid. I kind of want to blame this entirely on basketball dorks but I think the change to relax illegal defense rules had just as much, if not more to do with this.
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I did a little revamping of my K-State top 20 individuals list going back to 02.
(https://i.ibb.co/gFSvV3C/K-State-Ind-since-2002-1.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/ZGZhd9T/K-State-Ind-since-2002-2.png)
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Dean is aweskme
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How many shots per 100 and misses per 100 are there? If Beas gets 21.7 rebounds per 100 possessions, does that mean he gets like 40% of available rebounds?
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How many shots per 100 and misses per 100 are there? If Beas gets 21.7 rebounds per 100 possessions, does that mean he gets like 40% of available rebounds?
That season there were about 68 missed shots per game, so just under 93 missed shots per 100 possessions. So he got just over 23% of the rebounds available.
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Ahh sorry... forgot 1 offense + 1 defense totals 1 possession. Still pretty crazy
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Ahh sorry... forgot 1 offense + 1 defense totals 1 possession. Still pretty crazy
Yeah, that's still pretty ridiculous.
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How many shots per 100 and misses per 100 are there? If Beas gets 21.7 rebounds per 100 possessions, does that mean he gets like 40% of available rebounds?
That season there were about 68 missed shots per game, so just under 93 missed shots per 100 possessions. So he got just over 23% of the rebounds available.
I forgot to add missed FTs here too, which would be approximately 7-8 more misses per game accounting for 2 shot fouls, 1 and 1, etc.
Still, he rebounded 21% of all missed shots per game while he was here.
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Sheesh, Mak :facepalm:
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Sheesh, Mak :facepalm:
That eFG% and block rate tho...
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Sheesh, Mak :facepalm:
That block rate tho...
Behind DJamer in '18 :facepalm:
and Shane Southwell this year :lol:
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Sheesh, Mak :facepalm:
That block rate tho...
Behind DJamer in '18 :facepalm:
and Shane Southwell this year :lol:
I quite literally can’t remember a single Mawien block
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Sheesh, Mak :facepalm:
That block rate tho...
Behind DJamer in '18 :facepalm:
and Shane Southwell this year :lol:
I quite literally can’t remember a single Mawien block
He had a big one on Monday, I think he tossed Mytch when we were still leading early.
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I quite literally can’t remember a single Mawien block
He had a big one on Monday, I think he tossed Mytch when we were still leading early.
Mawien did a nice job guarding their starting big, McCormick, keeping him off balance and out of position.
Stockard was the one who kept losing Lightfoot and when Wade was on him it wasn't much better.
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I think I must have been living under a rock in 2002 because I don't recognize any of the names listed from 2002.
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You don't remember Pervis Pasco? I can't believe that Wooly couldn't get that team to at least the NIT.
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Any of Wooly's teams from 02-06 should have gotten in. They had enough.
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You don't remember Pervis Pasco? I can't believe that Wooly couldn't get that team to at least the NIT.
I do remember Pervis Pasco and the travel to lose to CU. But the others I'm drawing a blank.
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02 and 03 guys I don't remember at all:
Larry Reid
Travis Reynolds
Frank Richards
Jarrett Hart
I'm getting old :frown:
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Big Meat!
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02 and 03 guys I don't remember at all:
Larry Reid
Travis Reynolds
Frank Richards
Jarrett Hart
I'm getting old :frown:
Reid - legitimate all-league caliber PG his senior year on a bad Wooly team
Reynolds - Junction City's finest (next to Quentin Buchanon); Big 12 role player at best, starter for us until kicked off the team his senior year
Richards - JUCO PG who couldn't shoot
Jarrett Hart - started at OU, transferred to JUCO, then two years at K-State. Decent wing player
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Loved Larry Reid when I was a lad
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lol Fred Brown
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I thought buchanon was going to do good things.
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Fan, what can we point to in this years conference stats besides wins that could be a blueprint for Wildcat championships?
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winning on the road
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Fan, what can we point to in this years conference stats besides wins that could be a blueprint for Wildcat championships?
Cire's point about winning on the road is a good one.
But dominating TO%, shooting 3s pretty well (in Big 12 play), and being at least average in rebounding would be 3 pretty big ones.
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I would say recruiting 4 star players is a good starting point. Having two on the same roster appears to be the magic we need.
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when this team is locked in they defend absurdly well. It reminds me of cogs spinning together and it looks effortless. As offenses move the ball around our rotations are flawless and guys are never late or out of position. This is why we have forced a lot of TO's and why we do a good job on defensive boards IMO.
I also think that is something that really only comes with good athleticism but more importantly playing together in a system for a long time and getting tons of minutes together.
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1 game left.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1DvkzZWoAEniP7.png)
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How the heck does ISU have such a good NET rating when they have a worse record and worse strength of schedule?
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How the heck does ISU have such a good NET rating when they have a worse record and worse strength of schedule?
They have really good efficiency. Notice they are still 4th in differential in Big 12 play. Still the #10 efficiency offense in the nation according to kenpom. Decent OOC for them, some big wins (blowouts) and lots of close losses.