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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on September 18, 2018, 04:24:25 PM
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Through 3 games, KSU has had about 90 first down opportunities on offense. About 70% of the time we run the ball.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FsAloE.png&hash=5ed799f993ad5711699b651fb91bd751465934c1)
Our defense has faced about 95 first downs, about 57% of the time the opponent ran the ball.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FfGf9V.png&hash=d5b083699149a34980fc2b7887db19848dcbc89a)
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V low graph IQ here, what qualifies as a "first down oppy"?
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does this team suffer from an identity crisis? according to these statistics we certainly do.
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The down marker has a one on it. It's possible I've missed something, do my numbers seem off?
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KSU has had about 50 chances to convert on third down. 58% of the time we pass. Our mean distance to go is about 8 yards, but most common is 3rd and 5. Here is a distribution:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F5oiTc.png&hash=e74d6cc42da599690ae028970c5f64a2036f2e96)
Here is a distribution of the difference between the yards gained and the yards needed on 3rd down. We convert about 38%.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F6v520.png&hash=9266c66a40b25892f57272dad3fdcc2195f0d999)
And the same stuff but for our defense (mean 3rd and 7, most common 3rd and 10):
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FAGLT3.png&hash=a4516c3b23ce0dc8778ac03605d391622a610594)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FRcZ5d.png&hash=060a153119f19e41e31b52c0a50c6e5f16653c49)
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I'm getting slightly different numbers than that. Still, run vs pass on 1st down is 2:1.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180919/53de53406105e4e4668717c316eee811.png)
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KSU on Third Down
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FxEo7R.png&hash=e9fded6af609325468f0b566daf481b4f5885d39)
As expected, as the distance to convert a third down gets longer, our conversion % drops.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FhRUaH.png&hash=b8e8316769bd4fa40a1472fc0871d2abc4ebfa6f)
That 100% conversion rate against us for 3rd down and between 15 and 20 yards is only out of one opportunity, but I think we all remember that one well...
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I need to know if I'm breaking down your calculations correctly.
Offensively it seems our Cats are running often on first down, but also often having little success. On the rare occasion they toss the pigskin our Cats see a bit more success?
Defensively our Cats are seeing opponents employ a more balanced strategy. This is good for us, because opponents usually run through our Cat defense like a wet napkin. This is telling me I'm right to be happy when opponents throw on first down because they are more likely to gain zero yards rather than gash our Cats for nice run gains. I don't know if this is correct.
It also makes me sad that these breaks given by opponents don't seem to matter when our Cats need to make a stop on 3rd and longer.
Note: My opinion is heavily skewed by the results of the Miss St. and SD games. I have also not watched the UTSA game.
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On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds. This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal. The most common outcome is a gain of 1. With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.
When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5. If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.
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On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds. This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal. The most common outcome is a gain of 1. With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.
When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5. If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.
Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.
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Breakdown of yard gained with passing and rushing by who is the QB at the time:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F5HPYg.png&hash=43bd2a5bef180c102b65f98d19550b5304ad9f3a)
Now Skylar has a little more than twice as many snaps as Alex, but I did find that gap in the short range (5-10 yds) passing game interesting.
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Stats should be actionable, what do you suggest our team do different in light of this data?
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Call more plays that score TDs.
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we need to feed these stats into a cray and have that sob call our plays. that way we could fire andre dimel asap.
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On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds. This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal. The most common outcome is a gain of 1. With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.
When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5. If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.
Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.
They're certainly your stats but shouldn't 4 yards be considered a success? 4 YPC results in first downs vis a vis touchdowns, barring penalties.
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On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds. This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal. The most common outcome is a gain of 1. With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.
When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5. If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.
Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.
They're certainly your stats but shouldn't 4 yards be considered a success? 4 YPC results in first downs vis a vis touchdowns, barring penalties.
Not my stats, Bill Connelly of footballstudyhall.com did the research behind them. I can see the case for 4 yards being successful on 1st down, but he sets it at 50% of the yards to gain.
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Do any of these stats have a way to normalize for situational plays? Like for example it's 3rd and 7 but it's 4 down territory so maybe you're only trying to make it 4th and 2 instead of getting all of it in one play. Or, same 3rd and 7 but all you need is to run some clock and kick a field goal so you run a play that will keep the clock running and keep you in fg range but you were never really expecting to pick up the 1st down?
I dunno, seems like there is a statistically significant portion of the game where the objective isn't necessarily to gain 10 yards in 3 or fewer plays and repeat until you score a touchdown
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On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds. This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal. The most common outcome is a gain of 1. With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.
When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5. If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.
Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.
They're certainly your stats but shouldn't 4 yards be considered a success? 4 YPC results in first downs vis a vis touchdowns, barring penalties.
Not my stats, Bill Connelly of footballstudyhall.com did the research behind them. I can see the case for 4 yards being successful on 1st down, but he sets it at 50% of the yards to gain.
What a dope. You'll never get a first down at that rate!
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On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds. This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal. The most common outcome is a gain of 1. With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.
When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5. If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.
Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.
They're certainly your stats but shouldn't 4 yards be considered a success? 4 YPC results in first downs vis a vis touchdowns, barring penalties.
Not my stats, Bill Connelly of footballstudyhall.com did the research behind them. I can see the case for 4 yards being successful on 1st down, but he sets it at 50% of the yards to gain.
What a dope. You'll never get a first down at that rate!
Don't call him a dope, there's no need for hyperbole
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On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds. This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal. The most common outcome is a gain of 1. With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.
When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5. If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.
Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.
They're certainly your stats but shouldn't 4 yards be considered a success? 4 YPC results in first downs vis a vis touchdowns, barring penalties.
Not my stats, Bill Connelly of footballstudyhall.com did the research behind them. I can see the case for 4 yards being successful on 1st down, but he sets it at 50% of the yards to gain.
What a dope. You'll never get a first down at that rate!
2nd down is 70% of the yards to gain 3rd/4th down is 100% to be a "successful play" for Connelly's success rate system.
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Do any of these stats have a way to normalize for situational plays? Like for example it's 3rd and 7 but it's 4 down territory so maybe you're only trying to make it 4th and 2 instead of getting all of it in one play. Or, same 3rd and 7 but all you need is to run some clock and kick a field goal so you run a play that will keep the clock running and keep you in fg range but you were never really expecting to pick up the 1st down?
I dunno, seems like there is a statistically significant portion of the game where the objective isn't necessarily to gain 10 yards in 3 or fewer plays and repeat until you score a touchdown
It is probably possible. This would lead back to something like Bill Connelly's success metric (which isn't unreasonable IMO).
The raw data I have looks like the following (this is just a snippet):
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FoSDs0.png&hash=99b89ad60228a6bde55b9294c57827ce2c00d9dd)
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When you put all of Connelly's 5 factors together, I'm convinced its the best stats system for football out there.
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors
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Ron Prince called a 4 yard gain a success...in 4 downs (of 4 yard gains each) that equals a first down!
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Ron Prince called a 4 yard gain a success...in 4 downs (of 4 yard gains each) that equals a first down!
4 yards, or in this example 40% on first down, should be considered successful because you only need three downs to achieve a first down.
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Ron Prince called a 4 yard gain a success...in 4 downs (of 4 yard gains each) that equals a first down!
4 yards, or in this example 40% on first down, should be considered successful because you only need three downs to achieve a first down.
You're right...I think he said this of a 3 yard gain. My bad