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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on July 30, 2014, 03:27:42 PM
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One of the things that gets mentioned when regarding "strength of schedule" is the combined opponents record. For example in 2012 our FBS opponents went a combined 87-66 (~ 57%), but 10 of those combined losses were due to losing to KSU (which seems silly to include when determining SOS). On the flip side you can imagine a team having a poor year (let's say 1-11 against FBS teams) and their opponents went a combined 94-60; this will inflate the SOS because 11 of those combined wins are due to playing the shitty team.
Back to 2012, if you remove the games against KSU in the opponents combined W/L record then it becomes: 87-66 (~61%) which I think is a more reasonable reflection of who KSU played. Applying this back to 1996 (I just picked when the Big 12 started) you get:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FMpIyXaZ.png&hash=64e50642953d326071fc8536b5c5617c9649955c)
What I though was interesting was that the SOS was pretty consistent. For example, the 2004 disaster was not really a product of playing especially good teams, but just being a pile of poop. I then though you could imagine a "quality win %" which was the average of your win % with the adjusted opp win %. For example, in an extreme case if a team went 12-0 and its opponents went a combined 132-0 (remember we removed the loss due to playing the awesome team) its "quality win %" would be 100% If a team when 12-0, but the teams it played when a combined 0-132 its q win % would be 50%. For KSU the q win % would be:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJfkkBOa.png&hash=bc72eccda4ad54cbfba42b393be4628abca3077d)
It goes to show how consistently "average" KSU was between 2004 and 2010 and how good it was between 1996 and 2003 (with the exception of 2001 season that in retrospect was still better than any year between 2004 and 2010).
Now the next natural thing to do is extend this to other Big 12 teams. I will post the bar charts in a separate reply, but below is three plots with big12 (and former as well) teams:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FUgsSjPA.png&hash=04b25973937494227a53afd6ce857543c9bb695d)
It looks like the best teams were 1997 Nubb, 2000 OU, and 2005 UT (man that team was great).
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Does this guy know how to party or what?
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Does this guy know how to party or what?
He's pretty great
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Since the Big 12 is a true round robin conference now, the only games that really affect any league team's SOS are the 30 non-cons. The rest of the league will go .500 against themselves no matter what.
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A productive Chin post. :thumbsup:
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Since the Big 12 is a true round robin conference now, the only games that really affect any league team's SOS are the 30 non-cons. The rest of the league will go .500 against themselves no matter what.
not if you take out your games vs them.
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I really enjoyed reading this. :thumbs:
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Since the Big 12 is a true round robin conference now, the only games that really affect any league team's SOS are the 30 non-cons. The rest of the league will go .500 against themselves no matter what.
not if you take out your games vs them.
Every game has a winner and a loser... Essentially the Big 12 goes 1-1 in every conference game.
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FtKzizfN.png&hash=7d7b5eea2e1975539b5e2bec260c4b3754b3d91f)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FaDwnUJL.png&hash=47947555d52c0b71a11811086c28b9e96ca7b5e8)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FmrrLMKf.png&hash=86d717e0cd9eefe8fe108b75bf59d9136dfcba0a)
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Honestly surprised how tough our 98 schedule was.
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Since the Big 12 is a true round robin conference now, the only games that really affect any league team's SOS are the 30 non-cons. The rest of the league will go .500 against themselves no matter what.
not if you take out your games vs them.
Every game has a winner and a loser... Essentially the Big 12 goes 1-1 in every conference game.
This is correct, I first thought about this when wanting to compare "sensibly" to pre-round robin. With a round-robin the adj opp WL record for conference games will always be 36-36.
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well in 2012 big 12 teams that weren't playing against k-state went 44-37. where it gets weird is that record includes k-state's record against non k-state teams.
big 12 teams that played k-state went 1-8. :gocho:
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Honestly surprised how tough our 98 schedule was.
Here is a table:
KSU Opp Win %
| 2001 | | 0.65 |
| 2011 | | 0.64 |
| 2003 | | 0.63 |
| 2007 | | 0.62 |
| 2004 | | 0.62 |
| 1996 | | 0.62 |
| 2012 | | 0.61 |
| 2006 | | 0.59 |
| 2000 | | 0.59 |
| 2010 | | 0.58 |
| 2009 | | 0.58 |
| 2005 | | 0.58 |
| 1998 | | 0.57 |
| 2013 | | 0.56 |
| 2008 | | 0.56 |
| 2002 | | 0.56 |
| 1997 | | 0.55 |
| 1999 | | 0.5 |
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To contrast, here is:
KU opp win %
| 2011 | | 0.69 |
| 2012 | | 0.67 |
| 2001 | | 0.66 |
| 2000 | | 0.66 |
| 2008 | | 0.65 |
| 2005 | | 0.65 |
| 2004 | | 0.64 |
| 1996 | | 0.62 |
| 2013 | | 0.61 |
| 2010 | | 0.6 |
| 2009 | | 0.6 |
| 1998 | | 0.58 |
| 1999 | | 0.57 |
| 1997 | | 0.55 |
| 2003 | | 0.54 |
| 2002 | | 0.54 |
| 2006 | | 0.53 |
| 2007 | | 0.52 |
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wow i remember in 2011 before the season started i said on this bbs that it was going to be about the hardest schedule we'd ever faced!
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wow i remember in 2011 before the season started i said on this bbs that it was going to be about the hardest schedule we'd ever faced!
I was about to say dat 2011 :sdeek:
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Its amazing how bad that 2002 KU team was. The only FBS team they beat was a 1-11 Tulsa team.
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It would be interesting to see how many games Coach Weis could win if KU could have another schedule like they had in 2007.
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Gary Pinkel is a huge stud
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Gary Pinkel is a huge stud
There is no consistency under him, though.
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Am I reading the graphs wrong....or is it basically saying whether you win or lose is determined by how good or shitty you are, not how good or shitty your opp is?
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KSU and Auburn
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZiNCAjh.png&hash=9af43f2e7022de8340182a02932b5080e7c6824b)
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Am I reading the graphs wrong....or is it basically saying whether you win or lose is determined by how good or shitty you are, not how good or shitty your opp is?
Fo KSU, for the most part I would say that's true. Some teams (like KU) tend to show a bit more correlation between opp win % and their own.
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To contrast, here is:
KU opp win %
<table class="table"><tbody><tr><td>2011</td><td> </td><td>0.69</td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td> </td><td>0.67</td></tr><tr><td>2001</td><td> </td><td>0.66</td></tr><tr><td>2000</td><td> </td><td>0.66</td></tr><tr><td>2008</td><td> </td><td>0.65</td></tr><tr><td>2005</td><td> </td><td>0.65</td></tr><tr><td>2004</td><td> </td><td>0.64</td></tr><tr><td>1996</td><td> </td><td>0.62</td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td> </td><td>0.61</td></tr><tr><td>2010</td><td> </td><td>0.6</td></tr><tr><td>2009</td><td> </td><td>0.6</td></tr><tr><td>1998</td><td> </td><td>0.58</td></tr><tr><td>1999</td><td> </td><td>0.57</td></tr><tr><td>1997</td><td> </td><td>0.55</td></tr><tr><td>2003</td><td> </td><td>0.54</td></tr><tr><td>2002</td><td> </td><td>0.54</td></tr><tr><td>2006</td><td> </td><td>0.53</td></tr><tr><td>2007</td><td> </td><td>0.52</td></tr></tbody></table>
Is 07 the 07/08 season that KU won the orange bowl?
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KSU and Auburn
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZiNCAjh.png&hash=9af43f2e7022de8340182a02932b5080e7c6824b)
By the looks of this graph, I'd say Auburn is mumped come Sept. 18.
:ksu:
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KSU and Auburn
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZiNCAjh.png&hash=9af43f2e7022de8340182a02932b5080e7c6824b)
By the looks of this graph, I'd say Auburn is mumped come Sept. 18.
:ksu:
:excited:
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My word this bbs is loaded with intellectual giants.
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Great Thread. :pbj:
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chingon, I like it when you do these
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chingon, I like it when you do these
Me too!
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the most interesting thing i learned from this post is that Texas Tech's 2008 was every bit the fluke that Kansas' 2007 was.
i mean, *almost* as big of a fluke, obviously
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Didn't feel like starting a new thread so thought I'd put this here... Snyder is 6-12 since coming back, with 4 of those wins coming in 2012.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsi.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FBN-EE338_COUNT0_G_20140819192502.jpg&hash=cabed2f6fc8fe5e8e7b8b64a104c6868be06b8a9)
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Is this top 25 at the time of the game or at the end of the year? If it's "at the time of the game" then its pretty silly IMO.
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Is this top 25 at the time of the game or at the end of the year? If it's "at the time of the game" then its pretty silly IMO.
Yeah, it's at the time of the game. Not a great indicator, but still interesting. I would have guessed more than 23 wins in 22 seasons for LHCBS.
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Is this top 25 at the time of the game or at the end of the year? If it's "at the time of the game" then its pretty silly IMO.
Yeah, it's at the time of the game. Not a great indicator, but still interesting. I would have guessed more than 23 wins in 22 seasons for LHCBS.
Generally speaking, Ole Bill didn't/doesn't really regularly upset teams. And when you essentially hover ranked around 25-15, that means a win over a ranked team is an upset. On the flip side Bill didn't/doesn't really regularly get upset by teams either.
Of note: it says Bill has played 66 ranked teams in 22 years... that's on average 3 a year.
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http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/08/which-teams-scheduled-play-most-ranked-opponents-2018/ (http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/08/which-teams-scheduled-play-most-ranked-opponents-2018/)
KANSAS STATE
(18) Mississippi State, at (20) West Virginia, (21) Texas, (25) Oklahoma State, at (5) Oklahoma, and at (16) TCU
Average rank: 17.5
Though Kansas State’s average Top 25 opponent rank is the lowest among any of the teams featured here, it’s also the only FBS team set to play a whopping six members of the Coaches’ preseason poll.
What puts the Wildcats over the top is a Week 2 visit from (18) Mississippi State. To add to the fun, they also double up on back-to-back games vs. ranked foes: at (20) West Virginia and (21) Texas (Sept. 22 and 29) and at (5) Oklahoma and at (16) TCU (Oct. 27 and Nov. 3).
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http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/08/which-teams-scheduled-play-most-ranked-opponents-2018/ (http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/08/which-teams-scheduled-play-most-ranked-opponents-2018/)
KANSAS STATE
(18) Mississippi State, at (20) West Virginia, (21) Texas, (25) Oklahoma State, at (5) Oklahoma, and at (16) TCU
Average rank: 17.5
Though Kansas State’s average Top 25 opponent rank is the lowest among any of the teams featured here, it’s also the only FBS team set to play a whopping six members of the Coaches’ preseason poll.
What puts the Wildcats over the top is a Week 2 visit from (18) Mississippi State. To add to the fun, they also double up on back-to-back games vs. ranked foes: at (20) West Virginia and (21) Texas (Sept. 22 and 29) and at (5) Oklahoma and at (16) TCU (Oct. 27 and Nov. 3).
Hello 6 wins and a bowl game!
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:billdance:
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http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/08/which-teams-scheduled-play-most-ranked-opponents-2018/ (http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/08/which-teams-scheduled-play-most-ranked-opponents-2018/)
KANSAS STATE
(18) Mississippi State, at (20) West Virginia, (21) Texas, (25) Oklahoma State, at (5) Oklahoma, and at (16) TCU
Average rank: 17.5
Though Kansas State’s average Top 25 opponent rank is the lowest among any of the teams featured here, it’s also the only FBS team set to play a whopping six members of the Coaches’ preseason poll.
What puts the Wildcats over the top is a Week 2 visit from (18) Mississippi State. To add to the fun, they also double up on back-to-back games vs. ranked foes: at (20) West Virginia and (21) Texas (Sept. 22 and 29) and at (5) Oklahoma and at (16) TCU (Oct. 27 and Nov. 3).
Hello 6 wins and a bowl game!
everyone, quick, come look at this dumbass
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http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/08/which-teams-scheduled-play-most-ranked-opponents-2018/ (http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/08/which-teams-scheduled-play-most-ranked-opponents-2018/)
KANSAS STATE
(18) Mississippi State, at (20) West Virginia, (21) Texas, (25) Oklahoma State, at (5) Oklahoma, and at (16) TCU
Average rank: 17.5
Though Kansas State’s average Top 25 opponent rank is the lowest among any of the teams featured here, it’s also the only FBS team set to play a whopping six members of the Coaches’ preseason poll.
What puts the Wildcats over the top is a Week 2 visit from (18) Mississippi State. To add to the fun, they also double up on back-to-back games vs. ranked foes: at (20) West Virginia and (21) Texas (Sept. 22 and 29) and at (5) Oklahoma and at (16) TCU (Oct. 27 and Nov. 3).
Hello 6 wins and a bowl game!
everyone, quick, come look at this dumbass
:Wha: