goemaw.com
General Discussion => Essentially Flyertalk => Topic started by: cas4ksu on December 11, 2010, 11:18:05 AM
-
Up +$20
will update
-
Be careful with this csourk. I definitely don't want you to end up like my uncle Marty.
-
Up +$20
will update
You will not be a winner over time betting $20/game.
-
Up +$20
will update
You will not be a winner over time betting $20/game.
:lol:
-
Up +$20
will update
You will not be a winner over time betting $20/game.
:lol:
Which one of us are you laughing at? :dunno:
-
No, no, no. I'm not betting $20 a game. I'm just currently up $20. ie: deposited $20 up to $40
-
Be careful with this csourk. I definitely don't want you to end up like my uncle Marty.
I don't want him to end up like Havs' uncle.
-
No, no, no. I'm not betting $20 a game. I'm just currently up $20. ie: deposited $20 up to $40
OK, then let me rephrase: You will not win money by betting $1 or $3 or $5 per game. You will eventually get bored, bet bigger, then lose. Then you will redeposit $20 again. Then you will lose that. Then you will say, dammit, why don't I deposit ... $50. And you will lose that.
A year from now, after you've flushed away $500, you'll ask yourself: "Why didn't I just deposit that $500 at the beginning, collect a 20% bonus from a sports book and start with a bankroll that would have given me a chance at winning?"
Anyways, please post your plays before games so I can "follow you." :crossfingers:
-
Ok, I understand that scenario now, j rake.
I'd like to "follow" everyone's bets. Got any for this weekend?
Honestly see some value in Loyola-Chi in +380. But try to stay away from any/all Khatz game, just as a preference (prob about 50% when betting on them though, so no real reason other than preference.)
Like to do 3 team teasers in NFL usually. Bet NBA straight up, college football (underdog) money lines quite a bit, but a little of everything.
-
Ok, I understand that scenario now, j rake.
I'd like to "follow" everyone's bets. Got any for this weekend?
Honestly see some value in Loyola-Chi in +380. But try to stay away from any/all Khatz game, just as a preference (prob about 50% when betting on them though, so no real reason other than preference.)
Like to do 3 team teasers in NFL usually. Bet NBA straight up, college football (underdog) money lines quite a bit, but a little of everything.
Easiest way to win in college hoops is to find nationally televised games and fade the public.
You will win 57% of the time over the last five years.
-
I usually don't look at (somewhat) crazy trends like that; so a few questions...
Just talking ESPN/CBS games, and where do you check the public?
I mean on sportsbook.com I can see what their bettors doing, but can this be considered the "public"?
-
I usually don't look at (somewhat) crazy trends like that; so a few questions...
Just talking ESPN/CBS games, and where do you check the public?
I mean on sportsbook.com I can see what their bettors doing, but can this be considered the "public"?
Best places to get public info are covers.com and sportsbookspy.com. I used to not believe the numbers at SBS, but they are legit. The difference between Covers and SBS is that the Covers numbers are not actual bets placed — they are the teams people pick in contests at the site. SBS, meanwhile, are actual bets placed at actual online sports books. So, in all reality, if you want to see the teams people are putting their money on, your best bet is Sportsbook Spy.
The idea behind the national games theory (ESPN, ESPN2, CBS, etc.) is that those lines are the tightest, most scrutinized lines Vegas will put out. They become coin flips, and generally speaking, the public stinks at making those types of calls.
There's lots of value in the mid-major conference games.
-
Just for the hell of it, I'll start posting my college basketball plays.
Here is a system I've yet to actually wager any money on this year, but will do so starting today.
Here's how it works:
—I ask my idiot friend, Josh, the worst sports bettor I know, to pick the winners of all the national TV games.
—Then, I take the opposite ("fade") his plays. If the public agrees with him at a rate of 65% or more, it's a bigger play.
His picks for today:
—Wisconsin +1 over Marquette
—Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
—Kentucky -14 over Indiana
—Texas A&M pk over Washington
—Kansas -21 over Colorado State
The public is all over Tennessee, 72-28, so bet Pitt bigger.
The public is on Kansas, 92-8, so bet Colorado St bigger.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.therxforum.com%2Fimages%2Fsmilies%2Fdancefool.gif&hash=877ac8912bfb55b34399198a1261d7c9b80c87ca)
-
Put all of my $46.72 on the :bball: ML (-450)
Stupid, yes. Should I win, yes.
-
Just for the hell of it, I'll start posting my college basketball plays.
Here is a system I've yet to actually wager any money on this year, but will do so starting today.
Here's how it works:
—I ask my idiot friend, Josh, the worst sports bettor I know, to pick the winners of all the national TV games.
—Then, I take the opposite ("fade") his plays. If the public agrees with him at a rate of 65% or more, it's a bigger play.
His picks for today:
—Wisconsin +1 over Marquette
—Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
—Kentucky -14 over Indiana
—Texas A&M pk over Washington
—Kansas -21 over Colorado State
The public is all over Tennessee, 72-28, so bet Pitt bigger.
The public is on Kansas, 92-8, so bet Colorado St bigger.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.therxforum.com%2Fimages%2Fsmilies%2Fdancefool.gif&hash=877ac8912bfb55b34399198a1261d7c9b80c87ca)
I understand the system, but for the "public" do you just use what your sportsbook site has listed, or is there a better place to judge the "public"
-
I understand the system, but for the "public" do you just use what your sportsbook site has listed, or is there a better place to judge the "public"
Ignore the numbers your sports book gives you. They aren't accurate and are there to mislead you. Just use www.sportsbookspy.com.
Here's what it looks like, and an example of the type of things you should look for:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg816.imageshack.us%2Fimg816%2F6010%2Fsbs.png&hash=e30c92d2da80c6b711665a34cd384b193f496508)
-
Text from friend, the terrible sports bettor: "I'm sooooo good."
:bawl:
-
His picks for today:
—Wisconsin +1 over Marquette
—Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
—Kentucky -14 over Indiana
—Texas A&M pk over Washington
—Kansas -21 over Colorado State
He's 4-0 w/ the KU game in progress.
I wonder if he gave me the opposite of his picks. :horrorsurprise:
-
His picks for today:
—Wisconsin +1 over Marquette
—Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
—Kentucky -14 over Indiana
—Texas A&M pk over Washington
—Kansas -21 over Colorado State
He's 4-0 w/ the KU game in progress.
I wonder if he gave me the opposite of his picks. :horrorsurprise:
Which is why I don't like trends, or strictly going opposite of what someone else is picking.... Seems to take my knowledge completely out of the equation.
But at least you did hit one of your big bets.
-
Put all of my $46.72 on the :bball: ML (-450)
Stupid, yes. Should I win, yes.
Nice one.
:ksu:
-
His picks for today:
—Wisconsin +1 over Marquette
—Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
—Kentucky -14 over Indiana
—Texas A&M pk over Washington
—Kansas -21 over Colorado State
He's 4-0 w/ the KU game in progress.
I wonder if he gave me the opposite of his picks. :horrorsurprise:
Which is why I don't like trends, or strictly going opposite of what someone else is picking.... Seems to take my knowledge completely out of the equation.
But at least you did hit one of your big bets.
Can we wait until the sample size is larger than four games before we call this a failure? :angry:
Also, the KU game wasn't a win. It was a push, although the line did close at -21.5.
"Fade the idiot" season record: 0-4-1, -5.5 units.
-
BOISE STATE -4.5 at Drake!
-
BOISE STATE -4.5 at Drake!
:ohno:
-
BOISE STATE -4.5 at Drake!
:ohno:
I'm in on this one.
-
BOISE STATE -4.5 at Drake!
SMH!
-
NFL was brutal to me today.
-
dont know if anyone here has read it.
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Bettors-Have-Opportunity-Profit-When-College-Football-Teams-Humid-Regions-Play-Dry-Areas-1303996.htm
-
Place your bets on mizzou, and soon. Super insidery types have leaked that several hawkeyes failed drug tests, possibly including the only 2 healthy running backs on the roster.
:horrorsurprise:
-
Place your bets on mizzou, and soon. Super insidery types have leaked that several hawkeyes failed drug tests, possibly including the only 2 healthy running backs on the roster.
:horrorsurprise:
Betting against Kirk Ferentz in a bowl game? :nono:
-
Place your bets on mizzou, and soon. Super insidery types have leaked that several hawkeyes failed drug tests, possibly including the only 2 healthy running backs on the roster.
:horrorsurprise:
Betting against Kirk Ferentz in a bowl game? :nono:
Betting against Kirk, minus as many as 11 players? :dunno:
-
Betting against Kirk, minus as many as 11 players? :dunno:
We'll see where the line ends up, but yeah, I'd still take him.
King Kirk is the master of covering the spread in bowl games.
6-1 ATS.
-
Fade The Idiot, Day 2 ...
HE takes Kansas -18, YOU take USC.
Since 65% of public likes KU, up the ante.
More to come ...
-
Fade The Idiot, full card.
Take the opposite.
Kansas -18 over USC
South Carolina +19 over Ohio State
Stanford +8.5 over Butler
Kansas State -1.5 over Florida
Baylor -7.5 over Gonzaga
Texas A&M -7 over Arkansas
Texas +3 over North Carolina
Oklahoma St -5.5 over Alabama
Games in BOLD, bet bigger.
:emawkid:
-
I am an excellent sports bettor
-
Fade The Idiot, full card.
Take the opposite.
Kansas -18 over USC
South Carolina +19 over Ohio State
Stanford +8.5 over Butler
Kansas State -1.5 over Florida
Baylor -7.5 over Gonzaga
Texas A&M -7 over Arkansas
Texas +3 over North Carolina
Oklahoma St -5.5 over Alabama
Last week: 0-4-1, -5.5 units
Yesterday: 5-3, +5.6 units
Year to date: 5-7-1, +0.1 units
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.therxforum.com%2Fimages%2Fsmilies%2Fdancefool.gif&hash=877ac8912bfb55b34399198a1261d7c9b80c87ca)
-
Fading the cats before the books adjust for Pull/Kell suspension... UNLV +2.5 or +115
+115 ML for a couple units
-
Fading the cats before the books adjust for Pull/Kell suspension... UNLV +2.5 or +115
+115 ML for a couple units
:thumbsup:
-
Cas, update on your bankroll?
-
Would love to see C Kell's picks so I could fade them the rest of the season
-
Would love to see C Kell's picks so I could fade them the rest of the season
You need to start posting your picks. You are an excellent sports bettor.
-
Would love to see C Kell's picks so I could fade them the rest of the season
You need to start posting your picks. You are an excellent sports bettor.
JFC tell me about it
-
Fade The Idiot, Day 3 ...
HE takes Mich St -6.5, YOU take Texas
HE takes Gonzaga -5, YOU take Xavier
HE takes Mizzou +1, YOU take Illinois
My Bowl Season lead-pipe lock #1 of 5: Utah +17
:emawkid:
-
I would like to see how ChiPS fares along with this action.
CHiPS:
Take Texas
Take Missouri
Take Xavier
BONUS
KU 83
Cal 60
-
Forgive me, but what is CHiPS? :dunno:
-
Forgive me, but what is CHiPS? :dunno:
Chingon Has It Pegged System
-
Forgive me, but what is CHiPS? :dunno:
Chingon Has It Pegged System
No silly,
the
CHINgon Prediction System.
-
:surprised:
-
Fade The Idiot, Day 3 ...
HE takes Mich St -6.5, YOU take Texas
HE takes Gonzaga -5, YOU take Xavier
HE takes Mizzou +1, YOU take Illinois
My Bowl Season lead-pipe lock #1 of 5: Utah +17
:emawkid:
If I was playing these games I'd take the idiots picks and I really like Boise +17, but I decided to stay away from all of it (might pull the trigger on Boise still) for tonight.
-
Cas, update on your bankroll?
:flush:
-
DATE BOWL FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
12/29 MILITARY MARYLAND 7.5 EAST CAROLINA
12/29 TEXAS BAYLOR 1.5 ILLINOIS
12/29 ALAMO OKLA. ST 6.5 ARIZONA
12/30 ARMED FORCES SMU 8.5 ARMY
12/30 PINSTRIPE K-STATE 3.5 SYRACUSE
12/30 MUSIC CITY N. CAROLINA 2.5 TENNESSEE
12/30 HOLIDAY NEBRASKA 13.5 WASHINGTON
12/31 MEINEKE CLEMSON 4.5 S. FLORIDA
12/31 SUN MIAMI (FL) 3.5 NOTRE DAME
12/31 LIBERTY GEORGIA 7.5 C. FLORIDA
12/31 CHICK-FIL-A S. CAROLINA 3.5 FLORIDA ST
1/1 TICKET CITY TEXAS TECH 9.5 NORTHWESTERN
1/1 OUTBACK FLORIDA 7.5 PENN ST
1/1 CAPITAL ONE ALABAMA 10.5 MICHIGAN ST
1/1 GATOR MISS. ST 6.5 MICHIGAN
1/1 ROSE TCU 3.5 WISCONSIN
1/1 FIESTA OKLAHOMA 18.5 CONNECTICUT
1/3 ORANGE STANFORD 3.5 VA TECH
1/4 SUGAR OHIO ST 3.5 ARKANSAS
1/6 GODADDY.COM MIAMI (OH) 2.5 MIDDLE TENN.
1/7 COTTON LSU 1.5 TEXAS A&M
1/8 COMPASS PITT 2.5 KENTUCKY
1/9 KRAFT NEVADA 9.5 BOSTON COLLEGE
1/10 BCS AUBURN 2.5 OREGON
Who do you all like on these spreads?
-
I'd say life savings on Auburn. But then again, what do I know?
-
Butler (-6) at Detroit made me money tonight.
Thoughts on K-State (-12) for tomorrow??????
-
Butler (-6) at Detroit made me money tonight.
Thoughts on K-State (-12) for tomorrow??????
I didn't get on the Cats until it was -13.5, but I'm glad I did.
-
Cats +180 @ mizzou? :ohno:
-
Cats +180 @ mizzou? :ohno:
:crossfingers:
-
Even odds on a KSU +8.5 / UK -0.5 teaser. Bodog acct's a little low now, just did $5 to win $5.
-
$100 on K-State -24 this weekend. Easy money, go 'Cats!
:bill: is 14-1 ATS vs. KU since '94
-
$100 on K-State -24 this weekend. Easy money, go 'Cats!
:bill: is 14-1 ATS vs. KU since '94
I won $50 on the OU game, and I never bet. I should be all over this game...maybe I will.
-
If I gambled, I would put a lot of money on K-State this weekend. A LOT!!!
-
24 is a big number.
-
24 is a big number.
You're right, and 3 out of the last 14 times, Snyder has failed to beat KU by more than 24.
-
is the Ravens -5 at the Chiefs as much of a home run as i think it is?
-
is the Ravens -5 at the Chiefs as much of a home run as i think it is?
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-XCqJCMoipWI%2FUAYo4hLOemI%2FAAAAAAAANJg%2Fqdmqnj5yJEQ%2Fs1600%2Fhome-run.jpg&hash=4e91057d98bab424f63e58db9250678bb410e767)
-
i may or may not be able to do some wagering this weekend.
-
Interesting story:
A man in Canada made a $5 bet in which you pick every NFL game for week 3. The botched call at the end of the Seahawks/Packers MNF game made him a perfect 15/15. His winnings due to the botch call: $725,274. If the correct call would have been made he would have split that with 5 others for $120,879. The net of the bad call was $604,395 for him.
Interesting sidenote: The man put in 3 tickets: his own picks, one with the help of his 10-year-old son, and one with the help of his 12-year-old daughter. The winning ticket was with his daughter. The ticket he did on his own was 4/15.
-
$100 on K-State -24 this weekend. Easy money, go 'Cats!
:bill: is 14-1 ATS vs. KU since '94
:gocho: :cool: Was never worried.
<---- was actually pants shittingly worried at halftime and really mad about the last 16 seconds of the first half.
-
Just $50. I'll take it. Couldn't put the farm at any risk.
-
$100 on K-State -24 this weekend. Easy money, go 'Cats!
:bill: is 14-1 ATS vs. KU since '94
:gocho: :cool: Was never worried.
<---- was actually pants shittingly worried at halftime and really mad about the last 16 seconds of the first half.
I was worried for you...
-
i took south carolina -10.5 vs. unc
it's 27-10 sc and they're about to allow a garbage last minute touchdown. :facepalm:
-
HAHA HOLY crap THEY STOPPED THEM AT THE HALF YARD LINE ON 4TH DOWN :excited:
-
HAHA HOLY crap THEY STOPPED THEM AT THE HALF YARD LINE ON 4TH DOWN :excited:
Congrats, 'blast.
Also, I just noticed "Hi, I'm James McGill" is even more hilarious with your new avatar.
-
HAHA HOLY crap THEY STOPPED THEM AT THE HALF YARD LINE ON 4TH DOWN :excited:
Congrats, 'blast.
Also, I just noticed "Hi, I'm James McGill" is even more hilarious with your new avatar.
thanks. it's exactly what i was looking for when i started looking for a trek pic.
-
did you buy points? i got south carolina at -13. was sweating it there at the end. 1/2 yard line :lol:
-
did you buy points? i got south carolina at -13. was sweating it there at the end. 1/2 yard line :lol:
no just -110 at -10.5.
next up for tonight, i parlayed Minnesota -13.5 vs UNLV, with USC -23.5 vs. Hawaii
-
Cats -14 for me tonight. Taking the 1H line as well, whatever it is
-
Cats -14 for me tonight. Taking the 1H line as well, whatever it is
I would like NDSU if anyone wants to bet. NO JUICE! :excited:
-
Cats -14 for me tonight. Taking the 1H line as well, whatever it is
I would like NDSU if anyone wants to bet. NO JUICE! :excited:
I'll wager with you.
-
Sportsbook.ag doesn't have the cats game :curse:
-
my book doesnt have it :(
-
Well Johnny Wichita is giving money away so you guys should take some.
-
Who wants it. PM your bet and I'll pm back if I accept.
-
Cats -14 for me tonight. Taking the 1H line as well, whatever it is
I would like NDSU if anyone wants to bet. NO JUICE! :excited:
I'll wager with you.
:kstategrad:
-
what's your policy on betting against the cats? like say hypothetically a k-state fan took NDSU +13 last night. bad fan? or just smart?
-
Cats -14 for me tonight. Taking the 1H line as well, whatever it is
I would like NDSU if anyone wants to bet. NO JUICE! :excited:
I'll wager with you.
:kstategrad:
:cobhead:
-
?@RJinVegas 42m
72 #CFB games so far. Favorites covered 36, Underdogs 36. Vegas not as good on games w/totals: 28 overs, 29 unders, 1 push
-
oklahoma state vs k-state, O/U 56.5, thoughts?
-
Okie State team total over whatever it is.
-
oklahoma state vs k-state, O/U 56.5, thoughts?
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.designofsignage.com%2Fapplication%2Fsymbol%2Fhospital%2Fimage%2F600x600%2Farrow-up.jpg&hash=651bfe44247071e76fbe223cdc644de8a8750bc0)
-
i was thinking the same.
-
Bet Labs Software ?@Bet_Labs 1m
This one is simple, if an NFL team is -7 for the game, they cover the first half 61.2% of the time: pic.twitter.com/GxT1pLtI7b