goemaw.com
General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on September 20, 2022, 07:08:36 PM
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four months have gone by, ukraine has mounted a successful offensive in the north and russia has taken some initial steps towards escalation/mobilization, so it seems like an opportune time to see how goEMAW currently views the war in ukraine.
the old poll is linked below.
https://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=43503.0
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just one voting day left.
so far it looks like people are quite a bit more bullish on ukraine, but iirc, some late votes came in for russia last time round.
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I voted that Ukraine has already won. Putin could still theoretically launch nukes and destroy the world, but he can't win the war.
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Ukraine wins but they don't get Crimea
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Ukraine is mos def in the driver's seat, but post USSR borders are a bridge too far, I think. Either Crimea or Donbas - likely the majority of Donbas - remains under direct Russian influence.
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In law's In law's are Ukrainian. The dad is a nuclear engineer and is a pretty big time euro Nuke power consultant to the UN and stuff.
Anyhoo, we were all together a year or so after Crimea was annexed. Viktor said that Ukranians didn't really care because Crimea was basically the russian Oligarch/crime lord money laundering vacay spot. Likened it to Vegas of the 60's/70's and the US Mob or Cuba and the mob in the 40's, 50's. Said they could have it.
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Ukraine is mos def in the driver's seat, but post USSR borders are a bridge too far, I think. Either Crimea or Donbas - likely the majority of Donbas - remains under direct Russian influence.
I think Russia "keeps" Donbas and doesn't lose Crimea and that's enough to save face, Ukraine still ends up joining NATO and Russia has to pick on someone else, probably Georgia
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you can tell kat kid has voted but dax hasn't
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Ukraine is mos def in the driver's seat, but post USSR borders are a bridge too far, I think. Either Crimea or Donbas - likely the majority of Donbas - remains under direct Russian influence.
I think Russia "keeps" Donbas and doesn't lose Crimea and that's enough to save face, Ukraine still ends up joining NATO and Russia has to pick on someone else, probably Georgia
I think the US would sign off on that to end the rape/pillage/consumer electronics theft. The whole world can see russia is simply dropping vast arrays of arms in Ukraine that will flood the globe. The orcs are simply running away from their weapons
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I think Ukraine gets Crimea but doesn't retake Donbas
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I think Ukraine gets Crimea but doesn't retake Donbas
i don't see how that could happen.
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I think Russia "keeps" Donbas and doesn't lose Crimea and that's enough to save face, Ukraine still ends up joining NATO and Russia has to pick on someone else, probably Georgia
also don't think this combination of things is possible.
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Ukraine will do what the US tells them to do
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Ukraine will do what the US tells them to do
they won't, but also the idea that the us would want those things to happen is pretty bizarre.
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Ukraine will do what the US tells them to do
they won't, but also the idea that the us would want those things to happen is pretty bizarre.
I don't think we need to put them down like a horse with a broken leg anymore. We just got an inexpensive field test of our ops/tech/intel head to head with Russian counterparts and kicked the total crap out of them. even in the hands of Ukraine we mumped the best russia had to offer up in the summer so hard they on are on the verge of civil war. They are forcing prisoners and old men into uniform just so their pervy ass doesn't get invaded. We know they are not crap to us anymore, could never meet us head to head for more than a month. We would end them quickly. Importantly, they now know it as well.
so find a way that bald psycho doesn't pop off a nuke and get back them supplying cheap fossils until eurp can cook up a better plan.
Not for nothing but your guy Stone has been pointing out russia isn't crap for over a decade on this very blog
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you can tell kat kid has voted but dax hasn't
Not on Tapatalk, haven’t voted
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you can tell kat kid has voted but dax hasn't
Not on Tapatalk, haven’t voted
well it's too late now. the early voter wins the poll, folks.
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with similar turnout, goEMAW shifted to be about one category more bullish on ukraine's chances. there was also a shift from a bimodal result in the early poll to a more normally distributed opinion this time around.