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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: Pete on June 26, 2020, 06:11:57 PM

Title: 2020 Electoral Vote Thread (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida)
Post by: Pete on June 26, 2020, 06:11:57 PM: This is a thread about who will win the electoral votes required to be POTUS. It appears that there is somewhat of a consensus that the four states that will decide this 2020 election are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida...some would say Arizona, Ohio, and North Carolina are in this category as well.

I like to check https://fivethirtyeight.com , and they have Biden up by 10 in MI, 8 in PA, 9 in WI, and 9 in FL. I like how 538 attempts to grade the polls. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ So, that's a site that look to.
Title: Re: 2020 Electoral Vote Thread (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida)
Post by: cfbandyman on June 26, 2020, 06:26:49 PM: Always a big fan of 538. I love when trumpers bag on Nate Silver for getting it "wrong" when their site gave him by far the best odds to win, they selectively forget that. Also, people really have a hard time realizing (cause I think his last projection in 2016 had Hillary at like 65%, trump 35%) that 2-1 odds isn't like remotely a unlikely possibility.

I'm glad they have added that to their elections (they did at least in 2018 and the dem primary) where they had the % but then put it in terms of "this person has a 2 in 5 chance of winning" along with 40% for example. Non math people seem to take 2 in 5 mentally in their minds as better than a 40% chance. I personally blame how we grade things in school as the reason why pretty much anything 50% or less is destined to fail and anything above it is basically certainty just higher forms of it.

I also tend to agree the states you got there are most likely the ones that decide this election fwiw
Title: Re: 2020 Electoral Vote Thread (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida)
Post by: chum1 on June 26, 2020, 06:57:11 PM: https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1276603408083017730

(I like to post these and watch people respond, "no way Trump is losing that state!")
Title: Re: 2020 Electoral Vote Thread (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida)
Post by: wetwillie on June 26, 2020, 10:02:49 PM: i still think there is too much time between now and November for Joe not to say something so stupid it levels the playing field.
Title: Re: 2020 Electoral Vote Thread (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida)
Post by: cfbandyman on June 26, 2020, 11:39:20 PM: Quote from: wetwillie on June 26, 2020, 10:02:49 PM
i still think there is too much time between now and November for Joe not to say something so stupid it levels the playing field.

oh absolutely. Hell 4 months ago DJT was saying this pandemic would be a miracle and it would just do away, and everyone was carrying on like business as usual. Who tf knows what 4 more months (good or bad) will bring.
Title: Re: 2020 Electoral Vote Thread (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida)
Post by: Pete on June 28, 2020, 01:24:00 PM: Totally agree. I'm not a true Pit-er, so I started this thread to observe the polling fluctuations and "science."