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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on April 13, 2020, 03:32:02 AM

Title: and yet another death poll
Post by: sys on April 13, 2020, 03:32:02 AM
this one is much harder.
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: mocat on April 13, 2020, 08:54:00 AM
deaths have been doubling every 5-6 days pretty consistently, and you placed the o/u date to *less than* double 8 days away. what am i missing? are you just anticipating stay at home orders to finally have an effect on the death numbers?
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: Justwin on April 13, 2020, 08:56:44 AM
deaths have been doubling every 5-6 days pretty consistently, and you placed the o/u date to *less than* double 8 days away. what am i missing? are you just anticipating stay at home orders to have an effect the death numbers?

The growth rate of deaths has been slowing pretty consistently the last two weeks.  The growth rate is what determines the doubling time.
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: sys on April 13, 2020, 09:03:17 AM
deaths have been doubling every 5-6 days pretty consistently, and you placed the o/u date to *less than* double 8 days away. what am i missing? are you just anticipating stay at home orders to finally have an effect on the death numbers?

yeah, i expect growth to level off or at least slow a lot.  but that's why i said this one was hard.
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: Bqqkie Pimp on April 13, 2020, 09:04:40 AM
Mark me down for "as little death as possible"....  I don't want people to die.

Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: mocat on April 13, 2020, 09:54:19 AM
low voter turnout so far in this poll, but i'm happy with my value pick
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: sys on April 13, 2020, 10:36:03 AM
low voter turnout so far in this poll, but i'm happy with my value pick

yeah, if i could revote, i'd probably join you.
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: sys on April 14, 2020, 05:01:10 PM
for the purposes of both this poll and the 30k poll, the 3778 deaths purported to be retroactively added to the total will not count.
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: DQ12 on April 14, 2020, 05:03:41 PM
for the purposes of both this poll and the 30k poll, the 3778 deaths purported to be retroactively added to the total will not count.
:Woohoo:
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: Spracne on April 14, 2020, 08:40:02 PM
for the purposes of both this poll and the 30k poll, the 3778 deaths purported to be retroactively added to the total will not count.

This poll is bullshit.
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: sys on April 14, 2020, 11:44:24 PM
we can't let the polls be destroyed by the nyt's filthy agenda, spracne.
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: sys on April 16, 2020, 12:57:36 PM
results will now be determined by when the worldometers count goes over 43778.  it's not ideal, but i'd have to go look up the probable deaths from a separate data source and subtract out the probable deaths after 4-16 to do better and that's too much work.  so we'll subtract out the already reported 3778 probables but not any new probables added in going forward.
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: waks on April 16, 2020, 09:48:02 PM
My pick isn't looking as good as I would have hoped.  :frown:
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: Bqqkie Pimp on April 20, 2020, 10:37:06 AM
How did you end up scoring this?  The "current total" crested 40k yesterday, but I think that includes the extra 4k they randomly added in, correct?

Maybe our next poll should be "Will more people die from starvation, suicide, depression, etc, than from complications of COVID-19"?

This is just nuts and almost unfathomable in the USA.   :cry:

https://twitter.com/TruthRaiderHQ/status/1252174495831425025
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: 8manpick on April 20, 2020, 11:10:25 AM
How did you end up scoring this?  The "current total" crested 40k yesterday, but I think that includes the extra 4k they randomly added in, correct?


results will now be determined by when the worldometers count goes over 43778.  it's not ideal, but i'd have to go look up the probable deaths from a separate data source and subtract out the probable deaths after 4-16 to do better and that's too much work.  so we'll subtract out the already reported 3778 probables but not any new probables added in going forward.
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: Bqqkie Pimp on April 20, 2020, 11:59:41 AM
How did you end up scoring this?  The "current total" crested 40k yesterday, but I think that includes the extra 4k they randomly added in, correct?


results will now be determined by when the worldometers count goes over 43778.  it's not ideal, but i'd have to go look up the probable deaths from a separate data source and subtract out the probable deaths after 4-16 to do better and that's too much work.  so we'll subtract out the already reported 3778 probables but not any new probables added in going forward.


 :cheers:
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: cfbandyman on April 20, 2020, 05:40:21 PM
You might as well award it for tomorrow. And given what FL and GA are doing, as well as a lot of these protests, I think 100k is pretty much a lock for June 1st (unless we find a miracle cure in the next 45 days)
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: sys on April 20, 2020, 05:44:17 PM
You might as well award it for tomorrow.

i have to admit, i'm pretty satisfied with myself on this one.  a lot of luck was involved, but it wasn't easy to pick a day.
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: star seed 7 on April 20, 2020, 05:51:47 PM
These polls have been amazingly accurate, great job Dr sys
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: cfbandyman on April 21, 2020, 02:31:18 PM
And confirmed
Title: Re: and yet another death poll
Post by: sys on April 21, 2020, 02:54:31 PM
 :party: