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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on October 03, 2016, 10:38:26 AM
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Welcome to CHIngon's Polymetric Objective Team Listing Experiment (ChiPOTLE)!
ChiPOTLE is not really a predictor, it is a listing sorted by accomplishments. Teams listed to the top "deserve" to be there based on their statistical numbers and the teams they have beaten.
Now that we are about a month into the season, things are getting clear enough to use ChiPOTLE. Of course we will use OE and DE (points per drive on offense and defense), but boy oh boy are there are a couple of major changes! There are now two more metric used to calculate the expected Win % (WP):
OS: Offensive Stamina --- number of points scored on offense per drive when staring from deep within your own territory
DS: Defensive Stability --- number of points given up by the defense per drive when the opponent is starting from deep withing their own territory
And
Acc: Accomplishments --- on a scale between 0 and 1, how impressive are your wins? There is no credit for simply playing good teams, you must beat the team to get points here. The team with 1 for that week has the best accomplishments.
ChiPOTLE is calculated by taking the WP (based on OE, DE, OS, and DS) and combining that with Acc.
The Top 25:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FYLUvW.png&hash=4c224d9911aa404f42e3cecdda7bdc50ad8cf318)
The Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FoQEoo.png&hash=4898bbcaeebc65766da6c63d91c32ba6150f96b5)
Sadly KSU's offensive woes are quite clear (even more so on long drives), but in better news the defense looks pretty good.
KSU is a "better" team on paper vs Tech, but win no real accomplishments on our side we are ranked slightly lower.
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This leads me to ask the questions: What is the difference between average and mediocre? If a team is above-average, are they no longer mediocre?
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And if you were wondering what team is sparing KU the 128th spot...it's Arkansas State and just barely.
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new acronym, same anti-kstate bullshit.
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nebraska at #10 and tennessee at #5 are not right
i really like the stamina and stability measurements.
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If KSU played TTU what would chiPOTLE say the outcome would be?
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If KSU played TTU what would chiPOTLE say the outcome would be?
tuberville factor would favor tech
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Add a side of guac
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:lick:
(It's not a predictor)
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oh I like this
:love:
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Rather than create a new thread, I will just bump this one with updates:
Top 25 for Week of Oct 10
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FyDFsP.png&hash=ebcf06b252659dce922e979e9b4cdf17dbac7ce8)
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fefkw9.png&hash=fc8320bd994c3cc2734e1a227ec22eb0b9b411d3)
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in another thread there are a lot of posters who are saying that #56 is going to beat #16 this weekend :lol:
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interesting. you would expect the DS number to be lower than the DE, but k-state's is significantly higher.
what gives? statistical anomaly for the cats?
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interesting. you would expect the DS number to be lower than the DE, but k-state's is significantly higher.
what gives? statistical anomaly for the cats?
Maybe, it could simply be a lack of drives for the other team that start deep in their territory. I don't recall us pinning teams deep all that often.
It could also be a sign that the defense is susceptible to grinding offenses and just wear down at the end of a long drive.
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I have another question regarding the "accomplishments" column.
Saturday was our best win of the season by, I would imagine, a large margin, yet our accomplishment number only increased by .02. Why is that? Is it relative to others' accomplishments, like some sort of percentile rank?
Thanks and i'll listen off the air.
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I have another question regarding the "accomplishments" column.
Saturday was our best win of the season by, I would imagine, a large margin, yet our accomplishment number only increased by .02. Why is that? Is it relative to others' accomplishments, like some sort of percentile rank?
Thanks and i'll listen off the air.
Actually you might be looking at the wrong number, we went from 0.08 to 0.19, so an increase of 0.11.
Yes, it's relative and compared to all other teams. It will change from week to week depending on how your opponents did.
Our small increase is due to the fact that everyone else is playing conference foes now too, and Tech, relative to other conference teams is not much more than average.
If we keep winning we will climb, but the relative weakness of the B12 is going to hurt us. No real chances for a win over an elite team (maybe Baylor can be).
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KSU Wildcats Week to Week
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FS36Xm.png&hash=ebad85e5977768d78eb96606acbb909b4ac5948b)
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Tennessee?
G
M
A
F
B
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Took about two weeks for this thing to become a joke.
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yep! i was looking at the wrong number!
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Why does he always pick us to be so low?
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Oh boy, you guys are not going to be happy with the recent iteration of ChiPOTLE:
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FZmDbb.png&hash=d3944a339c7ad0ab2a457fc9888c8b72161e7d3f)
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FHefmW.png&hash=59981f1fd0967114bec08e70d0ec7dc05fb3525a)
KSU Weekly
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fi3IvM.png&hash=45bcfd59916a7b59bca01271b37d819656886365)
Looking like a .500 team, but were essentially smack dab in a pack of mediocrity with Texas, Tech, and Oklahoma St. Could be 5-7 and could also end up 7-5.
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"In the middle of mediocrity" sums up this year's team pretty well so far I think. Texas is a must win, then we just have to win two out of Baylor, TCU, and OSU for me to feel good about the season.
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Ohio State's win accomplishment is worse than Boise's?
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The schedule actually sets up perfectly for 7-5 :party:
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Ohio State's win accomplishment is worse than Boise's?
As of today Ohio State has a win over a good team (Wisconsin) and an above average team (OU), while Boise has a very good win (Wash State) and this gives them a very slight edge. Boise St is about maxed out though based on their schedule, so moving up is going to be very difficult. As the year progresses, their relative accomplishments will fall. This listing is different than typical rankings in that you move up from winning big games more than you necessarily move down from losing. You can easily get passed even if you win out if the teams below you can rack up good wins while you don't.
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The schedule actually sets up perfectly for 7-5 :party:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FRJ5qd.png&hash=fcd82e14b367ae08891e3cbc30dd9dd2c797b635)
Prob for 7-5 is about 23% right now.
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Looks like a pretty strong probability for 6 or more wins.
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Looks like a pretty strong probability for 6 or more wins.
66%!
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Ohio State's win accomplishment is worse than Boise's?
As of today Ohio State has a win over a good team (Wisconsin) and an above average team (OU), while Boise has a very good win (Wash State) and this gives them a very slight edge. Boise St is about maxed out though based on their schedule, so moving up is going to be very difficult. As the year progresses, their relative accomplishments will fall. This listing is different than typical rankings in that you move up from winning big games more than you necessarily move down from losing. You can easily get passed even if you win out if the teams below you can rack up good wins while you don't.
If Wash St is a very good win then I'm surprised Eastern Washington isn't getting more spice from chiPOTLE
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Ohio State's win accomplishment is worse than Boise's?
As of today Ohio State has a win over a good team (Wisconsin) and an above average team (OU), while Boise has a very good win (Wash State) and this gives them a very slight edge. Boise St is about maxed out though based on their schedule, so moving up is going to be very difficult. As the year progresses, their relative accomplishments will fall. This listing is different than typical rankings in that you move up from winning big games more than you necessarily move down from losing. You can easily get passed even if you win out if the teams below you can rack up good wins while you don't.
If Wash St is a very good win then I'm surprised Eastern Washington isn't getting more spice from chiPOTLE
Is Eastern Washington a FBS team?
I can see arguments against it, but ChiPOTLE doesn't really care that much about losses (beyond the extent that they hurt your OE and DE numnbers). It cares about wins. Remember, it is a listing sorted by accomplishments. Teams listed to the top "deserve" to be there based on their statistical numbers and the teams they have beaten.
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I don't like not punishing teams for losses. If you wanna be a big man and go out and have a tough SOS, great! What a gamble. Fortune favors the bold after all. But if you lose then you should be punished accordingly. That's the risk involved in scheduling Houston and Ohio State in the OOC, BOB.
If I were a voter, I would have a very mathematical set of rules to sort P5 teams:
1. Teams with fewer losses are ranked above those with more losses.
2. Teams with the same number of losses are sorted based on SOS.
And then G5 teams are just put more or less wherever I want based on feel
Easy peasy.
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In general, this is how ACC is calculated:
Each week you get a certain amount of points for the quality of each of your wins, and then you total them up. The team with the largest total here gets assigned a 1, and everyone else's total is divided by this maximum.
For each win over the best teams you get 1
For each win over very good teams you get 1/2
For each win over good teams you get 1/3
For each win over a just better than average team you get 1/4
For each win over an average team you get 1/5
For each win over below average team you get 3/20
For each win over a bad team you get 1/8
For each win over a very bad team you get 1/10
For each win over the worst teams you get 0
As to what bin an opponent fits into, well that's based on a combo of the previous ChiPOTLE and current weeks efficiency numbers.
At this point in time KSU has 1 win over an average team (Tech) and 1 win over a very bad team (FAU), so 0.3 before scaling. For comparison, Clemson has the highest raw total ACC at about 1.96.
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:thumbs:
i find this fascinating, chings. i wish i was better at spreadsheets.
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I don't like not punishing teams for losses. If you wanna be a big man and go out and have a tough SOS, great! What a gamble. Fortune favors the bold after all. But if you lose then you should be punished accordingly. That's the risk involved in scheduling Houston and Ohio State in the OOC, BOB.
If I were a voter, I would have a very mathematical set of rules to sort P5 teams:
1. Teams with fewer losses are ranked above those with more losses.
2. Teams with the same number of losses are sorted based on SOS.
And then G5 teams are just put more or less wherever I want based on feel
Easy peasy.
I agree with the no punishment for losses criteria, personally. The punishment is losing out on the reward you get from winning, and that is good enough.
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Updated for 10/24/2016
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FsXJx8.png&hash=1043123e70db5c05744a2caa2d0d4638ca3df56e)
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F67Ary.png&hash=04d4562075c1ce7d561714f3361163f580719c0f)
Three tiers are getting more clearly defined. Baylor and West Virginia and the Oklahoma Schools at the top competing for the conference title. Following that is the mediocre jumble of TCU, Texas, KSU, and Tech. The bottom drops out with the truly wretched ISU and KU.
KSU Weekly
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FHKXDS.png&hash=99a20521d4f6da2d32dadb5a26d9e8e986d55d8e)
Slight improvement in OE and DE, but our ability to score points from deep within our own territory is dropping again. Once again our DS gets worse. It would be nice if pinning an opponent deep in their own territory didn't result in our defense giving up so many points.
Preview for Farmageddon
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FbJDRZ.png&hash=8cc9a0e7110d043626619c4179db34519c6072b5)
Our defense should control this game. Could be a low scoring affair if our offense can't manage to sustain long drives that end up in points. There will be holes to exploit for big plays if we can find them.
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Colorado is good at football again. That is fun.
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Updated for 10/31/2016
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FMc1Ev.png&hash=abe6a7ade03a6d37475b08c64b10b7dc50efa12f)
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F8FImo.png&hash=a171d8c7cd3b6f30da4b18106af92379cbd91841)
KSU Weekly
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FA5h4L.png&hash=da899e17861156c8d8eee4bad156164e5e56aca9)
Preview for the Pokes
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FUk7xh.png&hash=385db496b6d4ab3924941b563a51b4eb3c931b73)
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fcicku.png&hash=e6b009989ad1c6e5ef487208a0c4bda53b981152)
:Wha:
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Top of the bottom half of the Big 12. I'll take it.
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Top of the bottom half of the Big 12. I'll take it.
Right in that meaty part of the curve. Not showing off, not falling behind.
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ChiPOTLE, show me a graph of probabilities for k-state's season win total
*bleep bloop bleep*
= :Flipped off x2: รท 2
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Updated for 11/07/2016
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F3f3KF.png&hash=00e26f05634fcecb9961c970e4cf104c7422962b)
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FbNhal.png&hash=53d899154b9b1a3def56a4fb7a89255310af5385)
KSU has the #8 offense in the Big 12 (only KU and ISU are worse)
KSU has the #5 defense in the Big 12
KSU Weekly
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fzygx6.png&hash=c5064fe40707291d6020579a1784797ab2db8cc1)
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Projected wins: about 6.5
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fk1Fu0.png&hash=026b05977b4f3f421bac1bef8a99c11c97a49439)
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Updated for 11/14/2016
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FWqumj.png&hash=a3a552f9ecaf966c7e2a64452e5c34c6aa96830c)
Zero Big 12 teams in the top 25 (OSU just barely misses out at 26). No good OOC wins for the conference is weighing everyone down like a stone.
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F5OXLZ.png&hash=450133ae7dba3dfc34916becd51ce17044747d4e)
We are back at #7, barely slipping past Tech. Big 12 has split into 4-sh groups:
The top with Ok State, WVU, and OU
The underachieving middle with Baylor, TCU, and Texas
The teams that thank God KU and ISU are in this conference: KSU and Tech
The horrid: ISU and KU
It looks like KSU and Tech were each able to pick off one of the underachieving middlers.
KSU Weekly
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FDRy3v.png&hash=66ab7c7320f998d9b3f41228ec89350ebd8bc6fb)
Slipping back a bit due to essentially beating no one of value.
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Do the extreme number of outliers this has when compared to other computer models concern you?
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Big 12 only is tiered a bit differently.
OU is the class of the league.
WVU-OSU-TCU is the clear next tier.
UT-BU-KSU
Then Tech-ISU-KU, though Tech is probably closer to the 3rd tier.
Record-wise, only TCU is living outside of where the numbers put them.
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Do the extreme number of outliers this has when compared to other computer models concern you?
Not really. I expected this to different from other models. I "think" I can explain any outliers I have, and they are consistent with the objective criterion I eastablished.
My goal is to only explicitly award for wins and not explicitly punish for losses (this makes it quite different). In this system, strength of schedule doesn't mean crap if you can't beat the good teams you play. You get accomplishment "rewards" only for wins. Moral victories and losses don't mean much beyond how they affect the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers.
This is not really for predictive purposes, just one possible way to objectively order teams where the ranking criteria is based on five factors:
how efficient is your offense , defense, long drive offense, long drive defense, and who have you beat.
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Big 12 only is tiered a bit differently.
OU is the class of the league.
WVU-OSU-TCU is the clear next tier.
UT-BU-KSU
Then Tech-ISU-KU, though Tech is probably closer to the 3rd tier.
Record-wise, only TCU is living outside of where the numbers put them.
I am not sure OU is really that much better, at least not from the drive-based stats. OU's best win is Baylor.
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Big 12 only is tiered a bit differently.
OU is the class of the league.
WVU-OSU-TCU is the clear next tier.
UT-BU-KSU
Then Tech-ISU-KU, though Tech is probably closer to the 3rd tier.
Record-wise, only TCU is living outside of where the numbers put them.
I am not sure OU is really that much better, at least not from the drive-based stats. OU's best win is Baylor.
They do have the 2 toughest opponents other than themselves left, but the only one of the 5 factors they aren't in the Top 2 in the league in is TO margin. That said, OSU isn't that far behind.
Using the 5 factors and scaling from 0 to 10 with league only games I get something like this:
OU 10.0
OSU 9.3
WVU 8.4
TCU 7.9
KSU 7.1
UT 7.1
BU 6.0
ISU 4.1
Tech 3.6
KU 0.0
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Do the extreme number of outliers this has when compared to other computer models concern you?
Not really. I expected this to different from other models. I "think" I can explain any outliers I have, and they are consistent with the objective criterion I eastablished.
My goal is to only explicitly award for wins and not explicitly punish for losses (this makes it quite different). In this system, strength of schedule doesn't mean crap if you can't beat the good teams you play. You get accomplishment "rewards" only for wins. Moral victories and losses don't mean much beyond how they affect the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers.
This is not really for predictive purposes, just one possible way to objectively order teams where the ranking criteria is based on five factors:
how efficient is your offense , defense, long drive offense, long drive defense, and who have you beat.
Please explain your teams 5-10; I'm not understanding that grouping if the rewards are for wins. The wins, individually and collectively, for that group are pedestrian at best.
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Chi is the combination of Win% (as determined by efficiency numbers) and Acc (Accomplishments). In fact it's just the average.
Here are Alabama's accomplishments:
Alabama
17 USC, 40 Western Kentucky, 24 Mississippi, 102 Kent State, 81 Kentucky, 58 Arkansas, 7 Tennessee, 11 Texas A&M, 28 LSU, 55 Mississippi State
They have racked up the most accomplishments so far, so they get a 1. Everyone else gets a score relative to this.
Penn State
102 Kent State, 44 Temple, 61 Minnesota, 89 Maryland, 3 Ohio State, 119 Purdue., 21 Iowa, 60 Indiana
Acc: 0.65
Summary: decent win% (0.65) and decent accomplishments (they have a top 10 win)
Boise State
93 Louisiana Lafayette, 15 Washington State, 105 Oregon State, 103 Utah State, 68 New Mexico, 69 Colorado State, 53 BYU, 114 San Jose State, 100 Hawaii
Acc: 0.44
Summary: good win% (0.84), but they greatly depend on the Washington State win
Tennessee
42 Appalachian State, 16 Virginia Tech, 51 Ohio, 18 Florida, 22 Georgia, 81 Kentucky
Acc: 0.66
Summary: decent win% (61), a few solid top 25 wins
Wisconsin
28 LSU, 85 Akron, 116 Georgia State, 88 Michigan State, 21 Iowa, 37 Nebraska, 45 Northwestern, 122 Illinois
Acc: 0.43
Summary: good win% (80), wins were better a couple of weeks ago
Auburn
70 Arkansas State, 28 LSU, 104 Louisiana Monroe, 55 Mississippi State, 58 Arkansas, 24 Mississippi, 83 Vanderbilt
Acc: 0.40
Summary: good win% (79), wins are starting to slide
Pittsburgh
5 Penn State, 106 Marshall., 35 Georgia Tech, 86 Virginia, 4 Clemson
Acc: 0.70
Summary: average win% (48), but great wins (2 top 10 wins)
Here is the top 25 teams just on accomplishment
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F6h22n.png&hash=0ba3f3673dd672b0d49ffad226e371f42d53bfbb)
and here is the top 25 teams just on win%
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FPAgse.png&hash=d9e0d3fd7fe284ac80e6c8eed1a6cb252f7e983b)
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this week is the annual SEC SOS adjustment week :excited:
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this week is the annual SEC SOS adjustment week :excited:
FL VS LSU is really rough ridin' that up
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I would absolutely love to see the spreadsheet/coding/whatever you use for this. Simply to look at all the work that goes into it.
Awesome stuff every week, Chings.
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I use Mathematica for this stuff.
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Updated!
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FZumM6.png&hash=ab7ab56bac7fb3129702c0435d57997ba2da6f80)
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FXE51o.png&hash=1f2581ac576d33e503830abc68116e15d632a3c8)
KSU Weekly
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FV5ScC.png&hash=79e3a111a9622bfe2738f45beb948cb96583abe3)
This weeks matchup for #200!
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FGYpkK.png&hash=b8f4bc96cd83b38a691d293fe99ef8d5f587b8b0)
Projected no. of wins:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F0sUaV.png&hash=69c5ccda4fb9c73ee38dd3833bd93548692b3838)
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Looks like K-State may sweep "underachieving middle" and ISU for "thank god Tech and KU are in this conference"
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Updated up to 11//28/2016
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FgoBr4.png&hash=0e5ed7c727bcca672b4592a6c766e4302d84c12b)
If we start looking ahead at how CHIngons Preferred Playoff System (ChiPPS) would look this year. As a reminder it's as follows:
5 Conference Champs
Highest Ranked from "group of 5"
2 at large (two highest ranked remaining teams with the caveat that at most two teams from a conference can be the playoffs)
If we assume the "favorites" win out:
1. Alabama (SEC Champ)
8. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Champ)
4. Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
5. USC (at Large)
6. Washington (Pac 12 Champs)
3. Clemson (ACC Champ)
7. Boise State (G5)
2. Michigan (at large)
The seeding could be jiggled around. Appears unfair for Ohio State at this moment, but there is a chance that they can sneak past Michigan (heavily depends on Colorado losing and OU beating Oklahoma State).
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FyK93d.png&hash=0558a1d090f7c3590bf569d483628819c32abc9f)
KSU has vanquished almost all of the mediocre middle (and might still pull off the Texas sweep) and well as surviving upset bids from the terrible trio at the bottom. With no wins over ranked teams (best win is currently #60 Texas), however, that keeps the Cats sadly pinned into the realm of irrelevance. Unless KSU bucks the trend and can beat a decent team in a bowl game, the main highlight of the season will likely be Bill's #200.
KSU has the number 6 offense and the number 3 defense.
Oklahoma State has the top spot almost solely due to having the best win the conference (Pittsburgh). Even if they had a W against Central Michigan, due to the poor quality of the Big 12, they would still only be ranked in the high teens.
KSU Weekly
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fj7JZI.png&hash=78b33ec48f654c1350d81568a9bf42cd49be6e17)
KSU - TCU match up
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FuCobB.png&hash=bdc536c93650c040b7a76123fb5909dd983840a8)
45% of getting that 8th win!
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doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ? :dunno:
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doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ? :dunno:
No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.
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i can't believe that ChiPOTLE 2016 doesn't like OU more than it does. i guess that's the difference between the clamsometer and ChiPOTLE 2016 though, that's what i always say.
the clamsometer has them at 6
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is it the clams-o-meter or the clamsahmitter
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i always just call it the clamsometer and so do all of the national pundits
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really need mocat to come in with his snow brag rankings
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really need mocat to come in with his snow brag rankings
1. Alabama .980
2. Ohio State .930
3. Michigan .919
4. Washington .909
5. Clemson .901
6. Penn State .880
7. Western Michigan .877
8. Wisconsin .870
9. Western Kentucky .867
10. Boise State 0.867
11. Oklahoma .866
12. Louisville .861
13. USF .853
14. Colorado .851
15. LSU .849
16. USC .848
17. Auburn .847
18. Navy .843
19. Florida State .838
20. Miami (FL) .837
21. West Virginia .837
22. Oklahoma State .835
23. Appalachian State .830
24. Temple .826
25. Tennessee .823
54. Kansas State .768
55. TCU .763
67. Baylor .741
73. Texas .730
78. Texas Tech .720
101. Iowa State .679
124. Kansas .632
Colorado 26
Washington 32
Oklahoma State 34
Oklahoma 38
Alabama 28
Florida 17
Clemson 31
Virginia Tech 24
Wisconsin 26
Penn State 25
Kansas State 30
TCU 29
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looks like chipotle and snowbrag have the wisconsin, texas tech, and iowa state spots locked the F down
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:thumbsup:
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doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ? :dunno:
No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.
POWL is correct
2015-WVU
2014-OU
2013-Tech
2012-OU
2011-Baylor
2010-none
2009-Iowa State, KU, and A&M all finished with higher Sagarin ratings
As much as people will try to change the narrative, Baylor was favored this year.
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_FANfactors:
Differential of each of the 5 factors (only Big 12 games) rated from 1-10. Those are then weighted based on win% of each factor for the total.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2FgoEMAW.com%2Fblog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F11%2FFanFactors1.png&hash=34a2314c90c020d31a59a42e48bfb6ad2749e40d)
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doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ? :dunno:
No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.
POWL is correct
2015-WVU
2014-OU
2013-Tech
2012-OU
2011-Baylor
2010-none
2009-Iowa State, KU, and A&M all finished with higher Sagarin ratings
As much as people will try to change the narrative, Baylor was favored this year.
I would respectfully disagree and say that most of those were teams we should have beat and not large upsets, but Sagarin's rating disagree with me and he gets a lot more cred than I do. I will grant Bill has had some minor upset victories.
I was thinking about this the other day: what are the top 20 wins for LHC Bill Snyder and how important to college football were they? I might start a new thread on that...
In any case, I always think about the end of the year ratings/ranking and not who was favored at the time.
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doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ? :dunno:
No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.
POWL is correct
2015-WVU
2014-OU
2013-Tech
2012-OU
2011-Baylor
2010-none
2009-Iowa State, KU, and A&M all finished with higher Sagarin ratings
As much as people will try to change the narrative, Baylor was favored this year.
I would respectfully disagree and say that most of those were teams we should have beat and not large upsets, but Sagarin's rating disagree with me and he gets a lot more cred than I do. I will grant Bill has had some minor upset victories.
I was thinking about this the other day: what are the top 20 wins for LHC Bill Snyder and how important to college football were they? I might start a new thread on that...
In any case, I always think about the end of the year ratings/ranking and not who was favored at the time.
He said "a game he shouldn't" which can be taken several ways. The problem specifically with LHC Bill Snyder teams and taking end of the year ratings are two fold:
1. Since he takes so few losses against teams he is supposed to beat he gets penalized for teams doing what he doesn't, get upset.
2. There are cases like 2013 Texas Tech where at the time of the game they were favored against KSU and lost, but at the end of the year their ratings are very close so in this measurement he's being penalized for actually beating said team.
It seems as if he doesn't have many big upsets, then again, outside of teams below average, who does?
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doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ? :dunno:
No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.
POWL is correct
2015-WVU
2014-OU
2013-Tech
2012-OU
2011-Baylor
2010-none
2009-Iowa State, KU, and A&M all finished with higher Sagarin ratings
As much as people will try to change the narrative, Baylor was favored this year.
I would respectfully disagree and say that most of those were teams we should have beat and not large upsets, but Sagarin's rating disagree with me and he gets a lot more cred than I do. I will grant Bill has had some minor upset victories.
I was thinking about this the other day: what are the top 20 wins for LHC Bill Snyder and how important to college football were they? I might start a new thread on that...
In any case, I always think about the end of the year ratings/ranking and not who was favored at the time.
He said "a game he shouldn't" which can be taken several ways. The problem specifically with LHC Bill Snyder teams and taking end of the year ratings are two fold:
1. Since he takes so few losses against teams he is supposed to beat he gets penalized for teams doing what he doesn't, get upset.
2. There are cases like 2013 Texas Tech where at the time of the game they were favored against KSU and lost, but at the end of the year their ratings are very close so in this measurement he's being penalized for actually beating said team.
It seems as if he doesn't have many big upsets, then again, outside of teams below average, who does?
I know that beating teams you are supposed to is good and the second pillar KSU football was built on (the other being scheduling teams you should beat).
I think what makes teams above average to great is the ability to pull of more upsets (when given the chance to, so it's a ratio = upsets/chances for upsets). Sure, Urban Meyer isn't going to upset that many teams based on the fact he will have the better team more often than not, but when he gets the chance I bet (totally unfounded speculation I could be wrong) his win % against teams that finish "better" is higher than a more average coach.
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doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ? :dunno:
No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.
POWL is correct
2015-WVU
2014-OU
2013-Tech
2012-OU
2011-Baylor
2010-none
2009-Iowa State, KU, and A&M all finished with higher Sagarin ratings
As much as people will try to change the narrative, Baylor was favored this year.
I would respectfully disagree and say that most of those were teams we should have beat and not large upsets, but Sagarin's rating disagree with me and he gets a lot more cred than I do. I will grant Bill has had some minor upset victories.
I was thinking about this the other day: what are the top 20 wins for LHC Bill Snyder and how important to college football were they? I might start a new thread on that...
In any case, I always think about the end of the year ratings/ranking and not who was favored at the time.
He said "a game he shouldn't" which can be taken several ways. The problem specifically with LHC Bill Snyder teams and taking end of the year ratings are two fold:
1. Since he takes so few losses against teams he is supposed to beat he gets penalized for teams doing what he doesn't, get upset.
2. There are cases like 2013 Texas Tech where at the time of the game they were favored against KSU and lost, but at the end of the year their ratings are very close so in this measurement he's being penalized for actually beating said team.
It seems as if he doesn't have many big upsets, then again, outside of teams below average, who does?
I know that beating teams you are supposed to is good and the second pillar KSU football was built on (the other being scheduling teams you should beat).
I think what makes teams above average to great is the ability to pull of more upsets (when given the chance to, so it's a ratio = upsets/chances for upsets). Sure, Urban Meyer isn't going to upset that many teams based on the fact he will have the better team more often than not, but when he gets the chance I bet (totally unfounded speculation I could be wrong) his win % against teams that finish "better" is higher than a more average coach.
You've kind of moved the goalposts on this one but whatever. I'm not claiming Snyder is Urban Meyer.
I'd be interested to see how many times Urban has been an underdog at OSU, certainly less than five, he was an underdog in both of their CFP games in 2015, maybe OU this year, I don't remember. OSU was #18 in the country his first game there even after they went 6-7 in 2011. I bet you'd have to go back to Bowling Green for him to get to 10 games in which he was an underdog.
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I know Kansas State was pretty great vs the spread in the 90s and I would guess the 93 season had to have a couple upsets outright according to Vegas.
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End of the Regular Season Update
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FJhDuv.png&hash=638d442becb9280b928a7077aa102978c9d2e2b5)
Alabama is the clear number 1. They have the second best efficiency stats and the best accomplishments. 2-4 are all very close and probably interchangeable. This year was a real missed opportunity for Michigan. That overtime loss was devastating. Interesting to see that Stanford at 14 still ended up as the best team we faced this year.
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FIMyfr.png&hash=247c197c61effa708e706568f523a367ab195b8d)
Our best win of the season (over #56 TCU) is rewarded by getting KSU into the top 50 for this first time this year and rated 4th in the conference. KSU ends up with the #3 (#49 nationally) defense and the #4 (#36 nationally) offense.
Here are teams comparable to KSU:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fhh7No.png&hash=36efc7087dbea4284bfadcb9577dec192032a375)
Conferences
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FHEmJX.png&hash=986b7fd932cb4562516f93090a693b95c7bfb067)
Here is how the P5 conferences ended up. Each bar is 5 wide, so the Big Ten has 2 teams in the top 5, and 1 team ranked between 6 and 10.
Judging the strength of a conference can be tricky, there are many different philosophies. I tend to think one should judge a conference by the top half. In that case we have:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FdAx2w.png&hash=e5daca41d96e746f4a5b2f8c31a558ea3e818cf6)
where the second column is the average ranking of the top half of the conference. Here the weakness of the Big 12 is clear, we have no elite teams. It might surprise some to see the ACC ranked the highest.
If you want the whole conference:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F098HM.png&hash=9a5560fdedd5e0d8c44c1a2787151412bc1366da)
While the Big Ten has 5 teams in the top 25 (tied with the ACC for the most of any conference), team like Purdue (119), Illinois (124), and Rutgers (127) drag them waaay down.
KSU Weekly
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Ffr5KV.png&hash=abe20dc2b366844a7785d9e1db127c9ea82aff84)
OS and DS where places where KSU improved the most. It was nice to see us drop the terrible DS of 2.80 down to something more reasonable and lower than our DE. Over the past 6 weeks the offense has been pretty steady, but the defense has improved.
Texas Bowl Matchup
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fs4zhK.png&hash=94bcdae325d13049c52e243cd97f7b697f360f3a)
KSU with a 57% chance to win! :ksu:
The rating difference between us and A&M is solely due to their quality of wins this year. By the "numbers" we have a slightly more efficient team.
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Also out of the 60 P5 + Notre Dame teams, KSU is #31. Smack dab in the middle. Almost the very definition of an average Power 5 team.
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Also out of the 60 P5 + Notre Dame teams, KSU is #31. Smack dab in the middle. Almost the very definition of an average Power 5 team.
Speaking of Notre Dame, how are they that high with their four amazing wins of Nevada, Syracuse, Army, and Miami? That's a murders row of wins.
App State ran the gauntlet too, lots of quality wins. I have no idea how they went through the three week stretch of Idaho, Georgia Southern, and Texas State unscathed.
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Also out of the 60 P5 + Notre Dame teams, KSU is #31. Smack dab in the middle. Almost the very definition of an average Power 5 team.
Speaking of Notre Dame, how are they that high with their four amazing wins of Nevada, Syracuse, Army, and Miami? That's a murders row of wins.
App State ran the gauntlet too, lots of quality wins. I have no idea how they went through the three week stretch of Idaho, Georgia Southern, and Texas State unscathed.
Kansas State wins:
56 TCU
60 Texas
62 Baylor
77 Texas Tech
101 Iowa State
115 Florida Atlantic
125 Kansas
Notre Dame wins:
27 Miami
67 Army
90 Syracuse
100 Nevada
App State wins:
52 Old Dominion
84 Idaho
87 Louisiana Lafayette
91 Georgia Southern
94 Akron
108 Georgia State
112 New Mexico State
116 Louisiana Monroe
128 Texas State
For Notre Dame it came down to Miami, which is a lot better than any win we have. They also have a bit higher WP. App state also has a slightly better win (against #52 Old Dominion), but also notice that App State actually has a smaller ACC score than KSU. They are, however, 0.14 higher in WP. That is why they are higher.
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Does your system throw out all results against FCS competition?
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Does your system throw out all results against FCS competition?
Yes
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sounds like in the chipotle system, notre dame could have an even better accomplishments had they managed to lose to Army, Syracuse, and Nevada
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Throwing out FCS results probably inflates WSUs ranking a little bit, right?
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sounds like in the chipotle system, notre dame could have an even better accomplishments had they managed to lose to Army, Syracuse, and Nevada
Why?
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Throwing out FCS results probably inflates WSUs ranking a little bit, right?
Maybe, but losses arent explicitly punished.
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sounds like in the chipotle system, notre dame could have an even better accomplishments had they managed to lose to Army, Syracuse, and Nevada
Why?
i think those wins are dragging them down. better just to lose to them (like they did to -these are snowbrag rankings- #74 texas, #99 michigan state, #97 duke, and #55 nc state) to keep that average win strength sky high
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sounds like in the chipotle system, notre dame could have an even better accomplishments had they managed to lose to Army, Syracuse, and Nevada
Why?
or, more succinctly:
losses arent explicitly punished.
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sounds like in the chipotle system, notre dame could have an even better accomplishments had they managed to lose to Army, Syracuse, and Nevada
Why?
i think those wins are dragging them down. better just to lose to them (like they did to -these are snowbrag rankings- #74 texas, #99 michigan state, #97 duke, and #55 nc state) to keep that average win strength sky high
I don't take an average. Its cumulative. You get rewarded for wins.
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sounds like in the chipotle system, notre dame could have an even better accomplishments had they managed to lose to Army, Syracuse, and Nevada
Why?
or, more succinctly:
losses arent explicitly punished.
Losses aren't explicilty punished, but they hurt you nonetheless because they cost you the opportunity for getting points for wins.
My rules of thumb: a win will never cost you raw ACC points AND a loss will never get you raw ACC points.
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#27 nd
#56 ksu
#60 ksu
#62 ksu
#67 nd
#77 ksu
#90 nd
#100 nd
#101 ksu
#115 ksu
#125 ksu
essentially what chipotle boils down to is that
1 win vs #27 is more valuable than 3 wins vs #56, 60, and 62, because everything below that sort of washes out
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The problem with not not giving credit for quality losses is that a 9-3 sun belt school with two FCS wins ends up with a higher rating than a power 5 school with five losses. The Sun Belt and C-USA have far too much weight because they didn't beat anyone at all in the non con they the good teams in these conferences all beat each other giving the appearance of a good win.
What is this supposed to measure? Best team? Is the 20th team expected to be significantly better than the 63rd?
If Iowa State played ODU on a neutral field ISU would by all accounts be a favorite, you have ODU 50 spots better. You would have ISU as ODUs 7th best win, that's prosperous.
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It's not a ranking of who is the best. It's a ranking of who has accomplished the most. I think it works for what it is intended to do. It's really the sort of system that should be used to set the playoff field.
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#27 nd
#56 ksu
#60 ksu
#62 ksu
#67 nd
#77 ksu
#90 nd
#100 nd
#101 ksu
#115 ksu
#125 ksu
essentially what chipotle boils down to is that
1 win vs #27 is more valuable than 3 wins vs #56, 60, and 62, because everything below that sort of washes out
Close. Here is the value of each win:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FfnBcV.png&hash=2a19047ae7f52bfd9ae2dc3067142142da4b5b82)
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The problem with not not giving credit for quality losses is that a 9-3 sun belt school with two FCS wins ends up with a higher rating than a power 5 school with five losses. The Sun Belt and C-USA have far too much weight because they didn't beat anyone at all in the non con they the good teams in these conferences all beat each other giving the appearance of a good win.
What is this supposed to measure? Best team? Is the 20th team expected to be significantly better than the 63rd?
If Iowa State played ODU on a neutral field ISU would by all accounts be a favorite, you have ODU 50 spots better. You would have ISU as ODUs 7th best win, that's prosperous.
ChiPOTLE is not really a predictor, it is a listing sorted by accomplishments. Teams listed to the top "deserve" to be there based on their statistical numbers and the teams they have beaten.
Of course we will use OE and DE (points per drive on offense and defense), but boy oh boy are there are a couple of major changes! There are now two more metrics used to calculate the expected Win % (WP):
OS: Offensive Stamina --- number of points scored on offense per drive when staring from deep within your own territory
DS: Defensive Stability --- number of points given up by the defense per drive when the opponent is starting from deep withing their own territory
And
Acc: Accomplishments --- on a scale between 0 and 1, how impressive are your wins? There is no credit for simply playing good teams, you must beat the team to get points here. The team with 1 for that week has the best accomplishments.
ChiPOTLE is calculated by taking the WP (based on OE, DE, OS, and DS) and combining that with Acc.
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So winning a home game against Toledo is a greater accomplishment than winning a road game against Nebraska?
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So winning a home game against Toledo is a greater accomplishment than winning a road game against Nebraska?
In this objective system they would actually be worth the same (0.25 raw points). The only inputs are OE, DE, OS, DS, and who you have beaten. I don't give credit for being a "name" team or how big your stadium is.
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So winning a home game against Toledo is a greater accomplishment than winning a road game against Nebraska?
In this objective system they would actually be worth the same (0.25 raw points). The only inputs are OE, DE, OS, DS, and who you have beaten. I don't give credit for being a "name" team or how big your stadium is.
The circumstances in which a game is being played is somewhat important, especially if you're using it as a measure of playoff worthiness.
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Perhaps, but I haven't figured out an objective way to quantify these circumstances. What should be used? Stadium size? Ticket sales? Opponent's home win percentage over the past three years? All possibly right answers, but in the end it needs to be objectively quantified.
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Perhaps, but I haven't figured out an objective way to quantify these circumstances. What should be used? Stadium size? Ticket sales? Opponent's home win percentage over the past three years? All possibly right answers, but in the end it needs to be objectively quantified.
I'm feeling a little facetiousness here. But to answer the question that I don't think you are looking for is that I'm not sure any of these individual metrics will give you that answer. I think ultimately the flaw with ChiPOTLE is that it is too stripped down. We are not watching robots here. You and I and anyone with a tiny bit of objectivity know a 21-17 win for Mississippi State over a 4-2 Auburn in the plains is a greater accomplishment than Toledo beating a 7-0 Kent State 35-27 in the Glass Bowl. It appears that ChiPOTLE views these two events more closely than it should. I don't know what the specific metric is, you're much smarter than me when it comes to that, but it seems the more data points you have the more likely these things would be fleshed out.
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Post Bowl Season Update
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FN8hyn.png&hash=2257d2a9a9aded8a764dd46916670a57eba942fb)
OU finally gets into the top 10.
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FprFk1.png&hash=9f54a7412812347e834ea4f0ae05e887514553dd)
I suspect getting jumped by Baylor is going to not make sense to a lot of people. They did have two really good wins though (vs OSU and BSU).
Going in to next year we will have a pretty efficient offense (ranked #3 in the conference and #34 overall) and defense (#3 in Big 12, #51 overall)
2016 Recap
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FvYoDr.png&hash=317f995115123b8f5d0e55f4942b69b248764869)
39 Baylor --> 0.25
42 Texas A&M --> 0.25
61 TCU --> 0.2
62 Texas --> 0.2
76 Texas Tech --> 0.15
101 Iowa State --> 0.1
114 Florida Atlantic --> 0
126 Kansas --> 0
2017 Preview
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F36OsH.png&hash=663609092306678e1b71f45443e79299a3bd4da2)
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Alabama has had an impressive season:
5 Washington --> 1
6 USC --> 1
11 Florida --> 0.75
12 LSU --> 0.75
19 Tennessee --> 0.75
23 Auburn --> 0.5
24 Western Kentucky --> 0.5
42 Texas A&M --> 0.25
58 Arkansas --> 0.2
64 Kentucky --> 0.2
67 Mississippi --> 0.2
78 Mississippi State --> 0.15
113 Kent State --> 0.
7 wins over top 25 teams.
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i can't believe that ChiPOTLE 2016 doesn't like OU more than it does. i guess that's the difference between the clamsometer and ChiPOTLE 2016 though, that's what i always say.
the clamsometer has them at 6
the clamsometer wins again