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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: stunted on November 15, 2015, 04:13:58 AM
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i wanted to figure out how each defense style compares against each other with math.
the top part is the simplest game. bend allows 6 first downs, break allows 3 first downs. breakeven is when break converts 90% fds/tds to break's 81% fds/tds. (or 80% to 64%, 70% to 49%, etc).
the second i make first downs get harder and harder to convert, and add field goals. if bend converts 4 first downs and stalls it attempts a 45 yd fg, if it converts 5 first downs and stalls it attempts a 30 yd fg. if break converts 2 first downs and stalls it attempts a 45 yd fg. i added "avg score 8 poss" to see how realistic it looks.
so basically, if bend converts fds/tds 90%-90%-80%-80%-70%-70%, and break converts fds/tds 74%-66%-58%, they breakeven. which numbers or differences look too high or low?
one thing this doesn't factor in is having a bend but don't break defense gives their own offense worse field position. 90%*90%=81% bend reaches 47, vs 74% for break. kind of explains our shitty field position this year. trying to air it out at a low percentage and having a bend and always breaks defense. also explains good field postion during the klein years. though it was a bend but don't break defense it was above average, and the offense was elite at small chunks (and large chunks).
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i should use this model to figure out just how terrible snyder's decision vs tcu was
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DNR, cause math. :zzz:
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I don't know what any of that means.
Gonna win 'em all!
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an offense faces 2 different types of defenses from the 20.
one defense is bend but don't break and it takes the offense on average 6 first downs (the final being a touchdown) to score. on average each first down drive advances the ball 80/6 = 13 yards.
the other defense is break but don't bend and it takes the offense on average 3 first downs (the final being a touchdown) to score. on average each first down drive advances the ball 80/3 = 27 yards.
first downs get harder to convert as the ball moves down the field, 1stD % #1-6.
there are field goals when in range.
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i should use this model to figure out just how terrible snyder's decision vs tcu was
Don't need a model to figure out how CONSERVATIVE and DUMB that decision was to kick that rough ridin' field goal vs TCU.
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^ Contrasted with Indiana, with the first possession in OT1, going for the TD on 4th down rather than kicking. Granted, they lost in OT2, but their coaches were tuned in to the game enough to know their D was on the ropes...
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I appreciate the recreational math :cheers:
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Our defense breaks an awful lot in addition to bending