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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: kso_FAN on January 11, 2015, 09:45:43 AM
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Man we're terrible
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Here are the final numbers from last season. Like the rest of college basketball, efficiency is way down so far this season (as is shooting), but the sample size is still pretty small.
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Have you considered doing home and away spits. I think it would be more telling.
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Have you considered doing home and away spits. I think it would be more telling.
Considered? Yes. Time to do so? No.
These stats are pretty skewed now because we've played less than 20% of the Big 12 schedule, but by the time we get halfway in they are still a pretty good barometer of the league.
I can do home/away for K-State easily enough and will put those up later.
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That TO %... :love:
Half of those other stats, tho... :Yuck:
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Now featuring your first place Kansas State Wildcats!
As you can see, the numbers show the Cats to be a middle of the pack team. However, the biggest difference between these Cats and earlier Cats are that they have gained advantages (though very slight) in shooting and TOs. eFG% defense is substantially better (impressively holding opponents to 43.8% on 2s) in Big 12 play. Also, even though the improvement in our own TO% is slight (22.6% overall, 21.6% in Big 12), we are turning over teams slightly more (21.7% to 22.6%) and thus gaining an advantage. Many of the OOC losses were close games and that difference in forcing a couple more TOs and a couple more missed shots at this point is enough to equate to more wins than losses. Now we'll see if it is sustainable.
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We're at the 1/3 mark and history looks to be repeating itself; Big 12 basketball comes down to Kansas and then everyone else fighting for 2nd place. Once again a Bill Self team is dominating efficiency with solid shooting and rebounding while avoiding the dumb losses. Meanwhile Hoiberg continues to find ways to lose on the road and it appears once again the Cyclones will struggle to surpass 4 true road wins on the season. 2nd through 8th is a logjam when you look at efficiency differential with no team better than +.03 and no worse than +.01 in that group.
Then you have oscar's surging Cats sitting in 2nd place at 5-2, despite only having a +.02 differential. Thanks to Nino, the Cats have become a solid 2PT% team with okay 2PT% defense while not being really good or really bad at anything, expect oscar's patented #assistketball. The Cats are also shooting fewer 3s than any other oscar coached team in major conference play (only 21% of shots in Big 12 games), but still finding ways to win games. Holding serve at home and winning a road game in Norman are huge for this team, now we'll have to see if that continues. If the Cats can manage 3 Big 12 road wins and hold serve at home (they could probably even afford a single home loss to KU or ISU), then they will be squarely in the NCAA conversation when March rolls around.
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There's some weird stuff on that chart. Like us shooting 76% on FTs or TCU being almost 100 spots different between KP and RPI.
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What is going on with TCU's FTR?
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What is going on with TCU's FTR?
They are also 2nd in the country overall, but they have been ridiculous in the Big 12, plus playing WVU twice. Their FT rates in those games were 80% and 86%, with 38 attempts and 44 attempts respectively.
Expect a 2.5 to 3 hour game tomorrow.
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Has the big 12 ever have this kind of possession variance. Half the league is sitting on extremes.
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Man, that is a big difference in FTR for WVU. Hope we take advantage of that.
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Man, that is a big difference in FTR for WVU. Hope we take advantage of that.
We should. So far our FT rate in Big 12 play hasn't been great, but for the season we're still Top 10 in the country in FT rate.
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Man, that is a big difference in FTR for WVU. Hope we take advantage of that.
We should. So far our FT rate in Big 12 play hasn't been great, but for the season we're still Top 10 in the country in FT rate.
You all will have an abundance of opportunities to get that % up against the 'Eers.
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lol @ ISU and OU being so bad at defense that they're too lazy to even foul :lol:
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How many more games does kenpom have us winning?
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How many more games does kenpom have us winning?
Has us finishing 8-10 in the Big 12.
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is kenpom gonna have to chad ford this thing?
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I think Ken pom forgot to put an El Nino factor in his algorithm.
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Meh to kenpom right now. Terrible December and not beating TCU and Tech badly has distorted our numbers. Yet we still have 2 top 15 wins and 3 in the top 30 over our last 5 games.
Meanwhile TCU is still #42 and they have 1 win this season over a team rated #150 or better in kenpom.
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Meh to kenpom right now. Terrible December and not beating TCU and Tech badly has distorted our numbers. Yet we still have 2 top 15 wins and 3 in the top 30 over our last 5 games.
Meanwhile TCU is still #42 and they have 1 win this season over a team rated #150 or better in kenpom.
the entire big 12 is over kenpom rated.
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i mean you look at the big 12 team's records and basically not a one of them beat a good team in the out of conference. amazing how a conference can accumulate such great kenpoms and rpi's and not beat anyone along the way.
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i mean you look at the big 12 team's records and basically not a one of them beat a good team in the out of conference. amazing how a conference can accumulate such great kenpoms and rpi's and not beat anyone along the way.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/determining_the_best_conference
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i mean you look at the big 12 team's records and basically not a one of them beat a good team in the out of conference. amazing how a conference can accumulate such great kenpoms and rpi's and not beat anyone along the way.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/determining_the_best_conference
interesting. a little circular since he's only discussing means of using his rankings, not alternate methods of rankings.
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At the halfway point (well, 46.7% of games played) and a little more separation is forming. Of course part of the separation is built from teams who destroy Tech (OU) compared to teams that don't (us).
During Big 12 play, the Cats have played much better defense (both efficiency and eFG%) compared to the season, but the offense is slipping. Without our mid-range marvel fully healthy, the 2PT% and therefore the eFG% took a big hit this week.
With a road game against the league's worst team and a home game against a disappointing UT team (again), K-State needs to go 2-0 this week.
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I think your kenpom numbers got broken, or maybe kenpom is broken.
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I think your kenpom numbers got broken, or maybe kenpom is broken.
If you mean the kenpom rankings, not broken. Those are current, it is strange. kenpom loves the Big 12.
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I'd say the rpi is far more accurate than kenpom with respect to tcu and to a lesser extent ou.
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it looks like ut and osu could slip out of the rpi 50 before the season's end.
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I mentioned this in chat, but our in conference 3PA/FGA is 21.3%. 27% for the year. That change is more drastic (and crazier) than our slower pace.
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I mentioned this in chat, but our in conference 3PA/FGA is 21.3%. 27% for the year. That change is more drastic (and crazier) than our slower pace.
I said something about that earlier this year. Once we realized Marcus was our only real shooting threat it was probably the right decision. However, if Nino isn't healthy then we are in real trouble.
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Wes needs to increase his 3PA's. Hell even letting hurt shoot 3 a game would be ok.
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57.8% of the Big 12 schedule has been played. After such a promising start that once saw our Cats at 5-2, 4 straight losses have changed the picture.
Once again, 2 PT% is a big indicator of how this season has gone. At 5-2 K-State was outshooting opponents by 2.3% on 2s, now the Cats are being outshot on 2s by 5%. Not being able to score in the paint, especially without Foster, is killing any chance K-State has at winning. While the Cats aren't likely to be passed by Tech or TCU in the win-loss totals this season, its hard to argue that either won't be be better teams by the time this miserable season ends. Tech is really bad as the numbers indicate, but they just kicked us around in Lubbock.
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Remember when we were first in the Big 12? Seems like ages ago.
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69% of the games have been played.
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Give me good numbers, Bobby.
#TheWesIsTheFuture
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HOME
0.98
0.93
ROAD
0.94
1.09
W
1.01
0.92
L
0.93
1.07
NO FOSTER
0.95
1.12
FOSTER
0.97
0.95
Nino injury gap (WVU, @KU, @TECH)
0.87
1.06
ALL HANDS ON DECK (FOSTER & NINO)
1.02
0.95
*first number off ppp 2nd number Def pop
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We dropped to 9th in points per possession differential. Lots of purple low on the charts, but hey, we still have a lot of assists.
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We dropped to 9th in points per possession differential. Lots of purple low on the charts, but hey, we still have a lot of assists.
Playing the right way!
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40 rpi and 5 of ut's 6 conference wins are over tech, tcu and kstate. they're gonna have to hustle a little if they want to get into the tournament. i don't think they're gonna make it.
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Only one week and 10% of the Big 12 is left.
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Final Big 12 Advanced Stats:
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So assist% means jack crap, huh?
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So assist% means jack crap, huh?
Right up there with block percentage
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UT had a pretty good defense. (we did not have a pretty good offense)
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UT had a pretty good defense. (we did not have a pretty good offense)
UT defense was been really good the last week and half since they stop playing zone.
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UT had a pretty good defense. (we did not have a pretty good offense)
It's pretty crazy how rarely they forced turnovers.
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Big 12 Advanced Stats since 2002:
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