goemaw.com

TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: BWebbs0 on December 29, 2014, 11:00:24 PM

Title: Per Kenpom...
Post by: BWebbs0 on December 29, 2014, 11:00:24 PM
We had a 99% chance to beat Texas Southern yesterday with less than 10 seconds to go. He also predicts our next and only win the remainder of the season will be January 14th against Texas Tech.

Statistics schmatistics...


(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dvdtalk.com%2Freviews%2Fimages%2Freviews%2F265%2Ffull%2F1354043354_1.jpg&hash=127e0a46d0606b61603a9fe8591c1b3c2f26bf2b)
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Trim on December 30, 2014, 01:05:43 AM
Meh.  This band can't even correctly predict the outcome of a 4-point game with only 10 seconds left.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Pete on December 30, 2014, 10:00:22 AM
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F25.media.tumblr.com%2Ftumblr_lh4tx2bYkx1qgd4eno1_400.gif&hash=ce2424c28f7b469a4e74cca445b65da6cdbca888)
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: ksupamplemousse on December 30, 2014, 10:22:02 AM
I think that's great news. First off, the bbsing would be incredible. Secondly, John Currie would be forced to either fire oscar or deal with a full fledged riot, both of which I would enjoy immensely.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Pete on December 30, 2014, 10:28:42 AM
I think that's great news. First off, the bbsing would be incredible. Secondly, John Currie would be forced to either fire oscar or deal with a full fledged riot, both of which I would enjoy immensely.

It's almost too good to be true.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: ksupamplemousse on December 30, 2014, 10:40:47 AM
It would be a Festivus miracle.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: CHONGS on December 30, 2014, 10:48:34 AM
Hey dum dums, if Weber does "kenpom" the season that is not good news.  It's almost the worst case scenario because you know next year he will almost certainly do better. Going from let's say 2-16 to 8-10 would be seen as signs of amazing improvement.   This would buy him at least three more years I bet.  On the other hand the other trajectory makes it much easier to get rid of him (if this is indeed desired). A 8-10 season this year followed by 2-16 would likely doom him unless something amazing happened the very next season.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Skipper44 on December 30, 2014, 11:24:14 AM
you don't think 2-16 gets him fired?  I am afraid the 'ship in '12 makes you correct.

I will say if you don't want to stay on the oscar 6-12 to 10-8 yo-yo for the next 4 or 5 years a 2-16 has to happen sometime
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: pissclams on December 30, 2014, 11:35:56 AM
i don't know if 2-16 gets him fired or not- no one knows that data at this point in time because quite frankly- it's an unknown.  with that said, if this kenpom guy is correct and we only win 1 game this season in conference we all have to ask ourselves- "what's going on in with this year's team?"  "what's this team's ceiling?"  "why did we get so bad or are we better than the record would indicate?"  "has this crowd lost this team?" 

find the answers and find the solution(s) that seem to plague this cat team hoop dreams.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: michigancat on December 30, 2014, 11:37:28 AM
what's the conference record kenpom is predicting?
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: PowercatPat on December 30, 2014, 11:39:11 AM
you don't think 2-16 gets him fired?  I am afraid the 'ship in '12 makes you correct.

I will say if you don't want to stay on the oscar 6-12 to 10-8 yo-yo for the next 4 or 5 years a 2-16 has to happen sometime

I think 2-16 will get him fired.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: michigancat on December 30, 2014, 11:40:44 AM
good grief, we won't go 2-16.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Skipper44 on December 30, 2014, 11:41:35 AM
you don't think 2-16 gets him fired?  I am afraid the 'ship in '12 makes you correct.

I will say if you don't want to stay on the oscar 6-12 to 10-8 yo-yo for the next 4 or 5 years a 2-16 has to happen sometime

I think 2-16 will get him fired.
I would hope so, otherwise he puts even more emphasis into scheduling over recruiting and we start the dance Wooly did for his last 3 years or so.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Skipper44 on December 30, 2014, 11:45:39 AM
good grief, we won't go 2-16.
prolly not, oscar is lucky the start to big 12 play is pretty soft.  If we had the last five of @TCU, @BU, vs KU, vs ISU and @UT to start instead of finish oscar losing the team would be a good bet.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on December 30, 2014, 11:49:28 AM
what's the conference record kenpom is predicting?

The first post in this thread said 1-17. I'm not sure where to find that, though.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: michigancat on December 30, 2014, 11:52:20 AM
what's the conference record kenpom is predicting?

The first post in this thread said 1-17. I'm not sure where to find that, though.

that's not the record he's predicting
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Spracne on December 30, 2014, 11:52:44 AM
what's the conference record kenpom is predicting?

The first post in this thread said 1-17. I'm not sure where to find that, though.

I think he means that there is only 1 game in which KSU is favored.  However, KenPom's predictive conference record will be more like 3-15 or something. 
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Mr Bread on December 30, 2014, 11:56:50 AM
Hey dum dums, if Weber does "kenpom" the season that is not good news.  It's almost the worst case scenario because you know next year he will almost certainly do better. Going from let's say 2-16 to 8-10 would be seen as signs of amazing improvement.   This would buy him at least three more years I bet.  On the other hand the other trajectory makes it much easier to get rid of him (if this is indeed desired). A 8-10 season this year followed by 2-16 would likely doom him unless something amazing happened the very next season.

Quote
Season    Team    Overall  Conf. Standing   Postseason

2007–08   Illinois   16–19   5–13   T–9th     none
2008–09   Illinois   24–10   11–7   T–2nd    NCAA First Round

 :excited:
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: CHONGS on December 30, 2014, 12:03:25 PM
I wasn't saying we would go 2-16 or whatever.  I was just saying that people who wanted something like that to happen (this season) in hopes that it would hasten oscar's departure are likely mistaken.  The opposite would probably happen in fact.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Mr Bread on December 30, 2014, 12:16:32 PM
I wasn't saying we would go 2-16 or whatever.  I was just saying that people who wanted something like that to happen (this season) in hopes that it would hasten oscar's departure are likely mistaken.  The opposite would probably happen in fact.

Yeah, what you described is what happened at Illinois. Having the terrible season followed by the rebound season got him more time.  I was wind-ing beneath your wings, chings. 
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Trim on December 30, 2014, 12:29:35 PM
What I'm gathering here is why settle for 2 when 0 are available?
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Pete on December 30, 2014, 12:34:08 PM
I wasn't saying we would go 2-16 or whatever.  I was just saying that people who wanted something like that to happen (this season) in hopes that it would hasten oscar's departure are likely mistaken.  The opposite would probably happen in fact.

Yeah, what you described is what happened at Illinois. Having the terrible season followed by the rebound season got him more time.  I was wind-ing beneath your wings, chings.

OK, I change my vote.  Just pencil me in for whatever gets him out of here the fastest.  So, I guess I am rooting for what, like between 6 and 8 wins this year, and then rooting for between 2 and 6 next year?
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: sys on December 30, 2014, 12:51:01 PM
what's the conference record kenpom is predicting?

5-13.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: michigancat on December 30, 2014, 01:01:46 PM
thx sys.

Bottom line is oscar is back next year unless there's some sort of vague NCAA violation going into an important game.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: pissclams on December 30, 2014, 01:03:18 PM
the big 12 championship is still available
if we win it, does that buy oscar more time as the mayor of katsville?
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Pete on December 30, 2014, 01:22:52 PM

the big 12 championship is still available
if we win it, does that buy oscar more time as the mayor of katsville?

Lifetime contract if he wins the conference.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: ksupamplemousse on December 30, 2014, 03:26:29 PM
I wasn't saying we would go 2-16 or whatever.  I was just saying that people who wanted something like that to happen (this season) in hopes that it would hasten oscar's departure are likely mistaken.  The opposite would probably happen in fact.

I don't think we'll go 2-16 either, but I do think it'd get oscar fired. That's just an absolute disaster of a season. Assuming we win against Georgia, which is probably way too much to assume at this point, that would give oscar 10 wins during the regular season. That would be the worst season (in terms of W/L %) since the one that got Tan Tom fired, and for the second worst season we'd have to go all the way back to the 1914-1915 season. So yes, 2-16 would most likely get his ass canned, because it would be historically bad.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Mr Bread on December 30, 2014, 03:38:27 PM
Nope.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Yard Dog on December 30, 2014, 03:41:33 PM
Woolridge at KState:

(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FdTBEu8y.png&hash=b160ef9d7390b47606518cbb364cd89af78b1ad8)

If oscar does worse than any of this he should be fired outright.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: ksupamplemousse on December 30, 2014, 03:48:37 PM
There also would be a ton of drama coming out of that K-State locker room if we go 2-16. Mutiny 2.0 would be on the horizon, awkward player/coach beefs like oscar always had at Illinois, rumors of players getting into fistfights. There's no way he'd survive. Like Rusty said though, no way we go 2-16, so it's kind of a pointless discussion.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Skipper44 on December 30, 2014, 03:58:54 PM
Hey dum dums, if Weber does "kenpom" the season that is not good news.  It's almost the worst case scenario because you know next year he will almost certainly do better. Going from let's say 2-16 to 8-10 would be seen as signs of amazing improvement.   This would buy him at least three more years I bet.  On the other hand the other trajectory makes it much easier to get rid of him (if this is indeed desired). A 8-10 season this year followed by 2-16 would likely doom him unless something amazing happened the very next season.

Quote
Season    Team    Overall  Conf. Standing   Postseason

2007–08   Illinois   16–19   5–13   T–9th     none
2008–09   Illinois   24–10   11–7   T–2nd    NCAA First Round

 :excited:
Bread, how did that happen?  My 30 second perusal of statsheet.com for the those 2 seasons makes me think it was Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale making big FR to Soph improvements to give some much better post play to compliment Chet, McCamey and Meacham that were already decent on the perimeter.

If that is the case I don't see that happening next year.  Assuming there are no transfers and all the perimeter guys are back for 15-16 our post players will be Hurt, Bolden, DJamer (if his foot heals) and the 3 star project big from Texas.  I mean, this team can hardly find shots in the half court vs mid and low majors with Gip drawing double teams.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: ChiComCat on December 30, 2014, 04:01:07 PM

the big 12 championship is still available
if we win it, does that buy oscar more time as the mayor of katsville?

Lifetime contract if he wins the conference.

Can you imagine the "adversity" he will have overcome?
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Mr Bread on December 30, 2014, 04:03:51 PM
Hey dum dums, if Weber does "kenpom" the season that is not good news.  It's almost the worst case scenario because you know next year he will almost certainly do better. Going from let's say 2-16 to 8-10 would be seen as signs of amazing improvement.   This would buy him at least three more years I bet.  On the other hand the other trajectory makes it much easier to get rid of him (if this is indeed desired). A 8-10 season this year followed by 2-16 would likely doom him unless something amazing happened the very next season.

Quote
Season    Team    Overall  Conf. Standing   Postseason

2007–08   Illinois   16–19   5–13   T–9th     none
2008–09   Illinois   24–10   11–7   T–2nd    NCAA First Round

 :excited:
Bread, how did that happen?  My 30 second perusal of statsheet.com for the those 2 seasons makes me think it was Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale making big FR to Soph improvements to give some much better post play to compliment Chet, McCamey and Meacham that were already decent on the perimeter.

If that is the case I don't see that happening next year.  Assuming there are no transfers and all the perimeter guys are back for 15-16 our post players will be Hurt, Bolden, DJamer (if his foot heals) and the 3 star project big from Texas.  I mean, this team can hardly find shots in the half court vs mid and low majors with Gip drawing double teams.

They played really good defense and the big 10 outside of MSU was crap that year.  They were lollers bad on offense.  I was so mad about it at the time. 
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on December 30, 2014, 04:37:54 PM
Hey dum dums, if Weber does "kenpom" the season that is not good news.  It's almost the worst case scenario because you know next year he will almost certainly do better. Going from let's say 2-16 to 8-10 would be seen as signs of amazing improvement.   This would buy him at least three more years I bet.  On the other hand the other trajectory makes it much easier to get rid of him (if this is indeed desired). A 8-10 season this year followed by 2-16 would likely doom him unless something amazing happened the very next season.

Quote
Season    Team    Overall  Conf. Standing   Postseason

2007–08   Illinois   16–19   5–13   T–9th     none
2008–09   Illinois   24–10   11–7   T–2nd    NCAA First Round

 :excited:
Bread, how did that happen?  My 30 second perusal of statsheet.com for the those 2 seasons makes me think it was Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale making big FR to Soph improvements to give some much better post play to compliment Chet, McCamey and Meacham that were already decent on the perimeter.

If that is the case I don't see that happening next year.  Assuming there are no transfers and all the perimeter guys are back for 15-16 our post players will be Hurt, Bolden, DJamer (if his foot heals) and the 3 star project big from Texas.  I mean, this team can hardly find shots in the half court vs mid and low majors with Gip drawing double teams.

How was our team so much better last season? Did Will Spradling really make that much of a difference?
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: CHONGS on December 30, 2014, 04:42:57 PM
I think a lot of people (wrongly IMO) downplayed the importance of Shane. He was a good player for us, but he was also the convenient scapegoat. In other words, losing Shane was a bigger deal than losing Sprads.  I guess a lot of people convinced themselves that losing him would be addition by subtraction somehow because he smiled too much.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on December 30, 2014, 04:44:39 PM
I think a lot of people (wrongly IMO) downplayed the importance of Shane. He was a good player for us, but he was also the convenient scapegoat.

I thought he was great, but oscar kept him on the bench too much for him to be that big of a difference maker.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Skipper44 on December 30, 2014, 05:01:41 PM
I think a lot of people (wrongly IMO) downplayed the importance of Shane. He was a good player for us, but he was also the convenient scapegoat. In other words, losing Shane was a bigger deal than losing Sprads.  I guess a lot of people convinced themselves that losing him would be addition by subtraction somehow because he smiled too much.
It seems wrong given how well Nino has played this season but Shane's threat as a 3 pt shooter seems to be more valuable to bruceketball.  He also defended the rim much better than Nino and Hurt for that matter. 

I mean, if someone said Nino was going to give us 13&5 while shooting 55%/75% in only 28 mpg before the season I would think that increase alone would be enough to keep this team at a similar level to last season given the proven guys I think we have in Foster and Gip.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: michigancat on December 30, 2014, 05:02:59 PM
I think a lot of people (wrongly IMO) downplayed the importance of Shane. He was a good player for us, but he was also the convenient scapegoat. In other words, losing Shane was a bigger deal than losing Sprads.  I guess a lot of people convinced themselves that losing him would be addition by subtraction somehow because he smiled too much.

yep.

Of course, Will knew all the plays and where to be on defense, unlike Shane.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: wetwillie on December 30, 2014, 06:48:10 PM
I think a lot of people (wrongly IMO) downplayed the importance of Shane. He was a good player for us, but he was also the convenient scapegoat.

I thought he was great, but oscar kept him on the bench too much for him to be that big of a difference maker.

That's not true
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Steffy08 on December 30, 2014, 07:57:50 PM
The biggest problem with this team is lack of effort.

A very distant second is the lack of an outside threat other than Foster.  I'm in favor of letting Hurt jack up threes to see what he can do.  The stroke looks good.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: CNS on December 30, 2014, 07:59:12 PM
Sock outed.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: The Big Train on December 30, 2014, 08:02:32 PM
god damnit yard dog
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: star seed 7 on December 30, 2014, 08:34:41 PM
The biggest problem with this team is lack of effort.

A very distant second is the lack of an outside threat other than Foster.  I'm in favor of letting Hurt jack up threes to see what he can do.  The stroke looks good.

ok gene
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: 0.42 on December 30, 2014, 09:59:52 PM
Texas Southern just lost to 6-9 New Mexico State. Let that sink in.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: BWebbs0 on December 30, 2014, 10:10:16 PM
Texas Southern just lost to 6-9 New Mexico State. Let that sink in.

Well, at least Kenpom predicted it?  :dunno:
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: 0.42 on December 30, 2014, 10:16:42 PM
btw the "let that sink in" line (which is looking more and more asinine upon concurrent viewings) was mainly aimed at any tucks who stumble upon this thread but whatever.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: The Big Train on December 30, 2014, 10:39:14 PM
"for a minute." your welcome @catstowin
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: yoman on December 31, 2014, 12:15:22 AM
btw the "let that sink in" line (which is looking more and more asinine upon concurrent viewings) was mainly aimed at any tucks who stumble upon this thread but whatever.

So Steffy and Reno essentially.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: 0.42 on December 31, 2014, 12:20:29 AM
btw the "let that sink in" line (which is looking more and more asinine upon concurrent viewings) was mainly aimed at any tucks who stumble upon this thread but whatever.

So Steffy and Reno essentially.

Yeah, although I kind of hope reno doesn't see it because his posts are a treasure trove of unintentional excellence.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: bballfan on December 31, 2014, 08:56:56 AM
Whats made it worse is expectations. Like at the beginning of last season, I had no hope of being any good, and then Foster happened. This year I expected to be good, and gained a lot of false hope during the close game with Arizona, only to watch it all come crashing down.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Yard Dog on December 31, 2014, 10:17:53 AM
god damnit yard dog

 :dunno: I have very high expectations for KState basketball and I will not accept a return to Woolridgeyness.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Pete on December 31, 2014, 10:57:13 AM
Decoursy says that the Big 12 is 2nd best conference, and we should get 7 bids.  This will be color printed and laminated by oscar and tacked to Currie's office door.


http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-12-29/top-conferences-college-basketball-ncaa-2014-season-acc-big-12-big-ten-big 10/slide/2

Quote
RPI rank: No. 1
Record vs. RPI top-10 leagues: 34-20
Biggest non-league wins: Kansas at Georgetown; Iowa State at Iowa; Oklahoma over UCLA
Championship contenders: None
Final Four contenders: Texas
Tourney contenders: Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU
Likely bids: Seven

Overview: It might seem harsh to leave the Big 12 entirely out of the national championship mix, especially after Texas played so well at Kentucky without point guard Isaiah Taylor. Perhaps his return will merit a change in that position, but the offense isn’t likely to be quite dynamic enough. The Big 12 is a league in which nearly every victory will be hard to earn, and one of the few high-level conferences in which a double round-robin schedule is in place. So this will be the most fun league, but the absence of national title challengers pushes it down a notch.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on December 31, 2014, 12:42:32 PM
I think winning the conference gets oscar at least one more year. If we split it, drop the probability factor one alpha and two betas. If it's only a third of the title, I'm not so sure.

if we go 1-17 in conference I think he's on the hot seat.
Title: Re: Per Kenpom...
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on December 31, 2014, 12:44:15 PM
Decoursy says that the Big 12 is 2nd best conference, and we should get 7 bids.  This will be color printed and laminated by oscar and tacked to Currie's office door.


http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-12-29/top-conferences-college-basketball-ncaa-2014-season-acc-big-12-big-ten-big 10/slide/2

Quote
RPI rank: No. 1
Record vs. RPI top-10 leagues: 34-20
Biggest non-league wins: Kansas at Georgetown; Iowa State at Iowa; Oklahoma over UCLA
Championship contenders: None
Final Four contenders: Texas
Tourney contenders: Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU
Likely bids: Seven

Overview: It might seem harsh to leave the Big 12 entirely out of the national championship mix, especially after Texas played so well at Kentucky without point guard Isaiah Taylor. Perhaps his return will merit a change in that position, but the offense isn’t likely to be quite dynamic enough. The Big 12 is a league in which nearly every victory will be hard to earn, and one of the few high-level conferences in which a double round-robin schedule is in place. So this will be the most fun league, but the absence of national title challengers pushes it down a notch.

Nothing says best conference like not title contenders and ooc wins against bottom feeding power 5 teams. What a dipshit