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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on November 10, 2014, 10:46:54 AM

Title: CHIMERA Week 11
Post by: CHONGS on November 10, 2014, 10:46:54 AM
So fresh, the electrons are still sizzling:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FaKcvb15.png&hash=abf010b51219183e73af9f073e0f7abb0f1155e0)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FYopdvR6.png&hash=13427731e148001aa6d57b08573978aff378c738)

Its shaping up like 9-3 (with 8-4 slightly more likely than 10-2), the probabilities are as follows (according to ChiMERA):

3-0 -> 22.5%
2-1 -> 51.9%
1-2 -> 23.7%
0-3 -> 1.9%
Title: Re: CHIMERA Week 11
Post by: mocat on November 10, 2014, 11:32:54 AM
Chings, can you rank the conferences? tia
Title: Re: CHIMERA Week 11
Post by: CHONGS on November 10, 2014, 01:23:41 PM
Chings, can you rank the conferences? tia
That's a tricky question IMHO.  I think a simple average is too crude to accurately get a good idea of a conference.  For example if conference A has teams ranked:
2, 6, 22, 45, 78, 100 (an avg of ~42) is this a better conference B which has teams ranked 1, 3, 5, 60, 80, 110 (an avg of 43)?  Here is a plot that might shed some light (the "x" axis is the rank and "y" axis is related to the relative portion of that conference at that ranking):

(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXxTSX0L.png&hash=c9a2f3cd37f76952ff60f35e481f68e8994d2f55)

Let's suppose we take the largest peak (of the teams ranked highly) as indicative of the conference strength.  Then you would have:

SEC -> 8.2
B12 -> 8.3
B10 -> 16
ACC -> 24
P12 -> 36.7

If we instead use average:

SEC -> 28.7
ACC -> 47.1
B12 -> 48.8
B10 -> 50.7
P12 -> 54.7
Title: Re: CHIMERA Week 11
Post by: mocat on November 10, 2014, 09:51:46 PM
Weird that you are giving the PAC 12 no love. I have them as the solid #2