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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: steve dave on August 13, 2014, 12:59:29 PM
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the left is lucky
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.boingboing.net%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F08%2FScreen-Shot-2014-08-13-at-10.19.04-AM.jpg&hash=7de9812d6d47456e01dd87d52aaaf44d35c2ffeb)
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I bet a lot of ugly people are sharing this on Facebook today.
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If I am reading this correctly, the GDP under Obama's first term, as the country entered it's second worst economic down turn ever, is just slightly under what the 'Pub avg is?
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That's a cute chart.
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Looks like the 3 worst presidents since WW2 have been Bush, Bush, and Obama.
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Looks like Truman dropped the bomb more than once...heeeyyooo
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Is it worth noting that the GDP includes government spending? Or, that the national debt has increased by $7 trillion since 2008?
Date US Real GDP
Jun 30, 2014 15.99 trillion
Dec 31, 2013 15.92 trillion
Dec 31, 2012 15.43 trillion
Dec 31, 2011 15.19 trillion
Dec 31, 2010 14.94 trillion
Dec 31, 2009 14.54 trillion
Dec 31, 2008 14.58 trillion
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"Average Annualized GDP Growth by Presidential Term"
Average Annualized?
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man, what if Reagan had been able to just keep doing his thing
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Is it worth noting that the GDP includes government spending? Or, that the national debt has increased by $7 trillion since 2008?
Yeah, that probably is worth noting. Of course, it's probably also worth noting that government spending is more a product of Congress - not the Presidency, and that spending is a product of programs implemented over a number of years and cannot be directly tied to any one particular Congress. So.... this chart appears to be worthless. :facepalm:
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swing and a miss
Table 6
Shocks and the DR-Gap
Shock Sample Period
R2
DR - Gap
Total Explained
1 Oil Shocks (Hamilton) 1949:Q2-2013:Q1 0.13 1.80 (0.64) 0.50 (0.10)
2 Oil Shocks (Killian) 1972:Q3 - 2004:Q3 0.05 0.82 (0.76) 0.21 (0.19)
3 TFP Utilization Adj (Fernald) 1949:Q2 - 2013:Q1 0.26 1.80 (0.64) 0.42 (0.11)
4 TFP Utilization Adj (Annual 1949 – 2012 0.14 1.79 (0.58) 0.46 (0.13)
5 Labor Productivity (SVAR, Gali) 1950:Q3 – 2013:Q1 0.09 1.73 (0.61) 0.21 (0.07)
6 Defense Spending (Ramey) 1949:Q2 - 2012.Q3 0.03 1.87 (0.64) 0.20 (0.05)
7 Defense Spending (Fisher-Peters) 1949:Q2 - 2008:Q4 0.00 2.13 (0.65) 0.02 (0.06)
8 International (GDP Growth Europe) 1962:Q4 – 2012:Q3 0.16 1.33 (0.63) 0.19 (0.05)
9 Taxes (Romer and Romer) 1949:Q2 - 2007:Q4 0.00 1.97 (0.64) 0.01 (0.06)
10 Taxes (Mertens and Ravn) 1951:Q3 - 2006:Q4 -0.05 1.68 (0.61) ?0.03 (0.11)
11 Government Spending (SVAR) 1952:Q3 - 2006:Q4 0.04 1.72 (0.63) 0.06 (0.02)
12 Monetary Policy (Romer and Romer) 1970:Q3 - 1996:Q4 0.20 0.47 (0.95) ?0.09 (0.17)
13 Monetary Policy SVAR (Sims and Zha) 1961:Q4 - 2003:Q1 0.16 1.50 (0.70) 0.05 (0.13)
14 Monetary Policy SVAR (Cholesky) 1957:Q2 - 2008.Q4 0.06 1.78 (0.64) ?0.23 (0.12)
15 Baa-Aaa Spread 1949:Q4 – 2013:Q1 0.06 1.85 (0.65) 0.21 (0.13)
16 EBP Spread (Gilchrist-Zakrajšek) 1975:Q3 – 2012:Q4 0.04 0.66 (0.69) 0.33 (026)
17 Ted Spread 1973:Q3 – 2013:Q1 0.22 0.93 (0.69) ?0.02 (0.03)
18 FRB SLOOS 1972:Q3 – 2013:Q1 0.20 0.77 (0.67) ?0.24 (0.10)
19 Index of Consumer Sent. Current (ICC) 1962:Q3 – 2013:Q1 0.10 1.26 (0.63) 0.03 (0.04)
20 Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) 1962:Q3 – 2013:Q1 0.13 1.26 (0.63) 0.33 (0.09)
21 Uncertainty Index (BBD) 1949:Q4 - 2012:Q4 0.04 1.88 (0.65) ?0.18 (0.06)
Notes: The “Total” DR-gap is the difference in the average growth rate or real GDP under Democratic and
Republicans presidents for the sample period shown. The “Explained” gap is computed from (2) using the shock
shown and k =1. The R2 is the marginal R2 for the current
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here's the entire paper if you want to read it. they don't seem to be "libtards" but knowing this group they may be called that anyway. and their conclusion actually does chalk up a lot of the returns on luck and various shocks (though a lot of them could be attributable to foreign policy).
http://www.princeton.edu/~mwatson/papers/Presidents_Blinder_Watson_July2014.pdf
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The important takeaway is Averaged Annualized.
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This is great, I also enjoy the discussion on "balanced budgets" but the national debt still managed to increase and the misunderstood reality the intra-governmental debt is still . . . debt. Which until further notice, has to be paid back at some point down the line..
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This is great, I also enjoy the discussion on "balanced budgets" but the national debt still managed to increase and the misunderstood reality the intra-governmental debt is still . . . debt. Which until further notice, has to be paid back at some point down the line..
You and I and Al Gore all understand this.
https://screen.yahoo.com/gore-bush-first-debate-000000075.html?query=bush+gore+snl (https://screen.yahoo.com/gore-bush-first-debate-000000075.html?query=bush+gore+snl)
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debt doesn't have to be paid back. don't you conservatards want govt to be run like a business?
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debt doesn't have to be paid back. don't you conservatards want govt to be run like a business?
From the champion of fiat money. What a rough ridin' moron.
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Sidenote: the conservatards are acting especially conservatarded in this thread
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Never heard the world conservetard used before.
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Never heard the world conservetard used before.
I made it up. It's not very clever.
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Is it worth noting that the GDP includes government spending? Or, that the national debt has increased by $7 trillion since 2008?
Yeah, that probably is worth noting. Of course, it's probably also worth noting that government spending is more a product of Congress - not the Presidency, and that spending is a product of programs implemented over a number of years and cannot be directly tied to any one particular Congress. So.... this chart appears to be worthless. :facepalm:
He said the left got lucky. WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT
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https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1486714908364324868?t=1DdkiZXJ5oLGTuQeWetbcA&s=09
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:lol: :lol:
The same political movement that lead to charge to get as many things as possible shut down is now bragging about GDP growth. :lol:
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OPEN THE COUNTRY FOR BUSINESS
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goddam
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How can there be job growth with a help wanted sign at every business?
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How can there be job growth with a help wanted sign at every business?
More prod = more employees
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How can there be job growth with a help wanted sign at every business?
More prod = more employees
There are actually less people working in the United States now than in Feb 2020. It’s just modeling the numbers to look how the tweeter wanted them to look based on timing of jobs coming back from initial ‘rona panic. I think economy is whipping ass and Biden is President so he should get all the credit, I just hate hack job stuff like that regardless of which side it comes from.
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How can there be job growth with a help wanted sign at every business?
How can't there be job growth with a help wanted sign on every business?
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How can there be job growth with a help wanted sign at every business?
How can't there be job growth with a help wanted sign on every business?
People have exited the work force completely. It’s pretty interesting actually. There are less people working right now than 2 years ago before the country melted down.
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How can there be job growth with a help wanted sign at every business?
How can't there be job growth with a help wanted sign on every business?
People have exited the work force completely. It’s pretty interesting actually. There are less people working right now than 2 years ago before the country melted down.
Stop saying less people :curse:
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Look who came in slobbering and late per usual, sad really.
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Look who came in slobbering and late per usual, sad really.
Dax:WW::steve dave:Spracs
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How can there be job growth with a help wanted sign at every business?
How can't there be job growth with a help wanted sign on every business?
People have exited the work force completely. It’s pretty interesting actually. There are less people working right now than 2 years ago before the country melted down.
The unemployment rate is also dropping. "Help wanted" signs are a symptom of a good economy. When the economy is bad, people are being laid off and businesses are not hiring. Other than increasing the amount of immigrants we accept (we really shouldn't even have a limit), I don't see what can be done to replace retiring boomers. Everyone remotely employable who wants or needs a job already has one.
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How can there be job growth with a help wanted sign at every business?
How can't there be job growth with a help wanted sign on every business?
People have exited the work force completely. It’s pretty interesting actually. There are less people working right now than 2 years ago before the country melted down.
Everyone remotely employable who wantsor needs a job already has one.
This part especially intrigues me. I haven’t been able to do a super deep dive but I’ve read some data around women leaving the workforce during covid that appear to not be coming back.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2021-11-04/burned-out-why-wont-more-women-return-to-the-job-market%3fcontext=amp (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2021-11-04/burned-out-why-wont-more-women-return-to-the-job-market%3fcontext=amp)
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How can there be job growth with a help wanted sign at every business?
How can't there be job growth with a help wanted sign on every business?
People have exited the work force completely. It’s pretty interesting actually. There are less people working right now than 2 years ago before the country melted down.
The unemployment rate is also dropping. "Help wanted" signs are a symptom of a good economy. When the economy is bad, people are being laid off and businesses are not hiring. Other than increasing the amount of immigrants we accept (we really shouldn't even have a limit), I don't see what can be done to replace retiring boomers. Everyone remotely employable who wants or needs a job already has one.
Ya, Powell said yesterday, I think, that we're at full employment.
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Childcare is expensive. I could see how providing assistance for it or maybe providing additional ctc might entice more women to work, but we could also fill those jobs a whole lot cheaper by opening the border.
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Childcare is expensive. I could see how providing assistance for it or maybe providing additional ctc might entice more women to work, but we could also fill those jobs a whole lot cheaper by opening the border.
I’m good with rising wages and full employment.
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Childcare is expensive. I could see how providing assistance for it or maybe providing additional ctc might entice more women to work, but we could also fill those jobs a whole lot cheaper by opening the border.
Your plan is pretty terrible and has a million holes in it.
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How can there be job growth with a help wanted sign at every business?
How can't there be job growth with a help wanted sign on every business?
People have exited the work force completely. It’s pretty interesting actually. There are less people working right now than 2 years ago before the country melted down.
The unemployment rate is also dropping. "Help wanted" signs are a symptom of a good economy. When the economy is bad, people are being laid off and businesses are not hiring. Other than increasing the amount of immigrants we accept (we really shouldn't even have a limit), I don't see what can be done to replace retiring boomers. Everyone remotely employable who wants or needs a job already has one.
DAX!!!
let him know...
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:lol: :lol:
The same political movement that lead to charge to get as many things as possible shut down is now bragging about GDP growth. :lol:
Led the charge, while not being in power. Whomever was the president in spring of 2020 must have been a spineless leader. Same for all of those states that must have unwillingly shut down too.
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The “shut down” where everything was still open that lasted 3 months
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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:lol: :lol:
The same political movement that lead to charge to get as many things as possible shut down is now bragging about GDP growth. :lol:
Led the charge, while not being in power. Whomever was the president in spring of 2020 must have been a spineless leader. Same for all of those states that must have unwillingly shut down too.
Is where I (re) post the numerous articles about how Trump should not be allowed to seize additional powers because of Covid?
You know, when #blueanon was demanding dictatorial mandates one day and melting down about Trump acting like a dictator the next?
Goodness
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There was no economic slow down because of Covid . . . but will still needed Trillions in stimulus anyway (#blueanonGe)
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Did December 2021 GDP report include the delayed LA port numbers?
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chill Dax
big daddy biden got us out of that "new normal" stagnant GDP
:cheers:
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If we're going to have fun with numbers, 3rd qtr 2020 GDP was hardly stagnant.
Just own the reality that Dems worked judiciously at the state and local level to shut down the economy. 15 days to flatten the curb declines alone are calculated in the billions of dollars.
Atlanta Fed is forecasting contraction.
Oh and the answer to my question, highly unlikely that LA Port imports made into initial December GDP calculations. The White House is using bureaucracy to make it appear they're fixing our port problem.
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"Shame falls on a party that would censure persons of conscience, who seek truth in the face of vitriol. Honor attaches to Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger for seeking truth even when doing so comes at great personal cost," Mitt Romney
what a RINO real pubs are incapable of feling shame
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Well that is embarrassing
Thought this was good not gdp...