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General Discussion => Essentially Flyertalk => Topic started by: nicname on May 01, 2014, 05:18:30 AM
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I'm not talking governments, etc. I'm talking about tech advances. How long until ag? How long crude then more advanced weaponry? How long until simple machines? How long until engines (steam, coal, etc.), then transportation, telegraphs, phones, computers, etc.?
The scenario is you take a representative swath of 100,000 ( aged 13-50) modern people, set them in an environment identical to earth with no tools, no domesticated animals or crops, etc. It's a fertile world with a temperate climate. Flora and fauna are similar to what they would have been at the time of the neolithic revolution.
I'm guessing they could develop something similar/ close to ours within 1,000 years. Optimistic estimate is closer to 500 years.
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less than one lifetime. ~80.
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What is the first major thing they create? A gasoline engine? That would have to be pretty high up on the list. Also, staplers would be needed pretty quickly. There would be a ton of user manuals and notes that would easily get mixed up if they weren't stapled together.
So-
1. gasoline engines
2. staplers
3. ?
4. ?
5. ?
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Finding and mining metal would have to be top of this list. Also, there would be a whole pile of people that would have plenty of trouble just surviving. All the knowledge they would have now would be great, but they would be more skilled in using computers than hand tools
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fertilizer, GMO's
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^^Agree with priority is finding and refining resources.
But the ultimate goal would be energy (electricity). Technology would roll after that.
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thousands of years. the first generations would be only living for subsistence, and the knowledge of what is even possible would be lost or relegated to myth
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Well you guys are talking about what they have to find. I am talking about what they have to create.
In your scenario, food, shelter would be 1 and 2. In my scenario, what comes after staplers? Probably pesticides. Tobias is ahead of himself with GMO's. That is somewhere around 8.
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5,000 years, give or take a century.
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My real answer is about 150 years.
I think there would be a strange period when the babies of this society started to grow up and the parents were working on things that the babies had never seen. Hearing adult conversations about computers would be really strange when there are no computers around. All of the adults would have all of this common knowledge in their heads and the kids would be growing up without anything concrete as a reference to what the adults were talking about.
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2,000 years minimum.
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A big problem is that agriculture has made us what we are today. We wouldn't have the intelligence without agriculture.
Or would we send people who already know about agriculture and technology to a place with nothing?
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How much access to caves do they have?
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My real answer is about 150 years.
I think there would be a strange period when the babies of this society started to grow up and the parents were working on things that the babies had never seen. Hearing adult conversations about computers would be really strange when there are no computers around. All of the adults would have all of this common knowledge in their heads and the kids would be growing up without anything concrete as a reference to what the adults were talking about.
That's pretty insightful, slobber.
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Never mind, just read the op more closely.
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facebook has got to be top 3 priority
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You guys are assuming that society as we know it is desirable. These people may decide to just do whatever they damn please and take us in a different direction.
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If I was going to this world I would try to sneak in lots of books.
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facebook has got to be top 3 priority
1. Gasoline Engine
2. Staplers
3. Facebook
4. Pesticides (I'll concede to Facebook, but I think it is stupid other than some great posts in that one thread on gE.)
5. ?
6. ?
7. ?
8. GMO's
9. ?
10. ?
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It would probably take about 2000 years or so. It would be a lot faster if somebody in the 100,000 already knows how to make paper.
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I had a similar discussion with a pretty experienced and brilliant engineer. Dude worked at the Honeywell nuke place for a long time, knows a lot of stuff. Anyway, I asked him if he was transplanted back in time to the dawn of the industrial age, and he was allowed to share as much knowledge as he could with the scholars and engineers of the day, how much further ahead would we be? His response: none, they'd think he was crazy.
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It would probably take about 2000 years or so. It would be a lot faster if somebody in the 100,000 already knows how to make paper.
My daughter could make crude paper in 2nd grade. All she needed was some recycled paper, water, and a blender. BOOM! PAPER ISSUE SOLVED!
Maybe they will make staplers before the end of 3rd grade?
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My plan for society would be:
1) paper/ink- write down all you know about modern earth. Assign people writing assignments based on areas of expertise.
1b) In parallel with the writers, dedicate all metal experts to building a printing press. This will develop society the fastest, and weapons for hunting could also be developed as residuals.
2) once the printing press is up and running, work on developing ships to explore the world and find new resources.
3) while folks are out exploring, work on an electricity network
At this point, it's pretty much all gravy. I think you could get to electricity and ships in a generation or two.
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It would probably take about 2000 years or so. It would be a lot faster if somebody in the 100,000 already knows how to make paper.
My daughter could make crude paper in 2nd grade. All she needed was some recycled paper, water, and a blender. BOOM! PAPER ISSUE SOLVED!
Maybe they will make staplers before the end of 3rd grade?
Yeah, but there wouldn't be any paper to recycle if they didn't have some guy who already knew how to make it. You could probably make a blender with a few gears and some horses. Paper would be tough, though.
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My plan for society would be:
1) paper/ink- write down all you know about modern earth. Assign people writing assignments based on areas of expertise.
1b) In parallel with the writers, dedicate all metal experts to building a printing press. This will develop society the fastest, and weapons for hunting could also be developed as residuals.
2) once the printing press is up and running, work on developing ships to explore the world and find new resources.
3) while folks are out exploring, work on an electricity network
At this point, it's pretty much all gravy. I think you could get to electricity and ships in a generation or two.
Gravy would be a pretty important piece, but #4? That seems high.
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My plan for society would be:
1) paper/ink- write down all you know about modern earth. Assign people writing assignments based on areas of expertise.
1b) In parallel with the writers, dedicate all metal experts to building a printing press. This will develop society the fastest, and weapons for hunting could also be developed as residuals.
2) once the printing press is up and running, work on developing ships to explore the world and find new resources.
3) while folks are out exploring, work on an electricity network
At this point, it's pretty much all gravy. I think you could get to electricity and ships in a generation or two.
Why not do it differently and decentralize the production of electricity? I mean in this instance there won't be millions of people spanning large distances in need of a connected network. Just make electricity where you need it.
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guys, don't choose me. I'm not going to make it very long without modern medicine.
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My plan for society would be:
1) paper/ink- write down all you know about modern earth. Assign people writing assignments based on areas of expertise.
1b) In parallel with the writers, dedicate all metal experts to building a printing press. This will develop society the fastest, and weapons for hunting could also be developed as residuals.
2) once the printing press is up and running, work on developing ships to explore the world and find new resources.
3) while folks are out exploring, work on an electricity network
At this point, it's pretty much all gravy. I think you could get to electricity and ships in a generation or two.
Why not do it differently and decentralize the production of electricity? I mean in this instance there won't be millions of people spanning large distances in need of a connected network. Just make electricity where you need it.
That's fine with me
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iphones top 5 in my book. once weve got iphones the new world is our oyster.
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I don't think I could build something that could generate electricity. Probably just be lucky to get a fire going without matches.
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i would be more interested in this experiment if the new society wasn't geared towards recreating ours and instead was allowed to make their own. i have no further input for this thread.
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Do you guys remember the prologue of "The Gods Must be Crazy" ? The premise was that man, in order to adapt to his surroundings and make life easier, developed societies and created all these gadgets, and essentially just made life more complex.
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I had a similar discussion with a pretty experienced and brilliant engineer. Dude worked at the Honeywell nuke place for a long time, knows a lot of stuff.
lol, love lead ups like these. inevitably followed by either some conspiracy theory or something that makes the person sound like a complete dumbass.
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I had a similar discussion with a pretty experienced and brilliant engineer. Dude worked at the Honeywell nuke place for a long time, knows a lot of stuff.
lol, love lead ups like these. inevitably followed by either some conspiracy theory or something that makes the person sound like a complete dumbass.
I always include whatever makes it the most :sdeek:
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I was friends in college with a 4.0 student who took an internship at NASA. He prefers boneless wings.
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The problem is that modern people would be horrible at the survival type stuff that would be most urgent. It would be like "Hey, can we eat these berries?" And the other guy would be like "I dunno man I usually eat Chipotle" and probably 80k would die within 5 years. Then, the 20k remaining would take a long ass time to even like, domesticate a horse and grow an ear of corn.
We're talking 2500 years MINIMUM.
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The problem is that modern people would be horrible at the survival type stuff that would be most urgent. It would be like "Hey, can we eat these berries?" And the other guy would be like "I dunno man I usually eat Chipotle" and probably 80k would die within 5 years. Then, the 20k remaining would take a long ass time to even like, domesticate a horse and grow an ear of corn.
We're talking 2500 years MINIMUM.
I think the first 100,000 would do a better job than you might think. It's their kids who would be in trouble, though. No paper, so they probably never learn to read or write, and most of our knowledge would just get lost.
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We'd spend all the time at first though with stuff like finding good drinking water and digging latrines and killing lions. We'd have no time for paper and writing! WE'D BE DOOMED FOR SURE. :Pirate Bones:
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We'd spend all the time at first though with stuff like finding good drinking water and digging latrines and killing lions. We'd have no time for paper and writing! WE'D BE DOOMED FOR SURE. :Pirate Bones:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/413530036667310080/9Iup970l.jpeg)
Having JoJo as part of the original 100k would speed things up by at least 200 years.
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That guy from survivor man is a MUST HAVE
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i would be more interested in this experiment if the new society wasn't geared towards recreating ours and instead was allowed to make their own. i have no further input for this thread.
I'd definitely agree with this. I just think knowledge (books), exploration, and energy should be the foundation. From there, see what happens.
Another problem is 100k people really aren't that many. It'd take a few million to get an iphone done.
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You guys are assuming that society as we know it is desirable. These people may decide to just do whatever they damn please and take us in a different direction.
:sdeek:
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i would be more interested in this experiment if the new society wasn't geared towards recreating ours and instead was allowed to make their own. i have no further input for this thread.
I'd definitely agree with this. I just think knowledge (books), exploration, and energy should be the foundation. From there, see what happens.
Another problem is 100k people really aren't that many. It'd take a few million to get an iphone done.
i think those things you mention will be the foundation- that will happen organically. the "let's figure out how to make a Xbox One" crap needs to go though. the reason i say that is that i think mankind is very self-limiting based upon a few decisions made a couple thousand years ago.
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Honestly, if I was around back before we had cool stuff, I probably would have gone rouge into the woods and joined some awesome tribe and ate mushrooms and hunted in loin cloths for the rest of my life. no inventing. way too much work, and no adhd drugs back then.
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a true sampling of 100,000 of the worlds population wouldn't include nearly enough Americans to make it work quickly.
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a true sampling of 100,000 of the worlds population wouldn't include nearly enough Americans to make it work quickly.
The majority of Americans are complete morons.
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gimme an iphone and 100,00 people and ill have tonyonia invading earth in like 3-4 years tops.
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i would be more interested in this experiment if the new society wasn't geared towards recreating ours and instead was allowed to make their own. i have no further input for this thread.
I could have probably phrased the question better. I'm more interested in the level of technology.
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don't forget about booze, guys.
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i would be more interested in this experiment if the new society wasn't geared towards recreating ours and instead was allowed to make their own. i have no further input for this thread.
I could have probably phrased the question better. I'm more interested in the level of technology.
oh. huge dichotomy shift here.
what if i were to tell you that i believe it would be easily possible to dwarf our level of technology in less amount of time? think of it this way, we are where we are because we royally mumped up a bunch of times. like, we're the dumbasses we like to make fun of for being dumbasses.
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The problem is that modern people would be horrible at the survival type stuff that would be most urgent. It would be like "Hey, can we eat these berries?" And the other guy would be like "I dunno man I usually eat Chipotle" and probably 80k would die within 5 years. Then, the 20k remaining would take a long ass time to even like, domesticate a horse and grow an ear of corn.
We're talking 2500 years MINIMUM.
Yes, lots of people would die fairly quickly. But survival of the fittest, etc.
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i would be more interested in this experiment if the new society wasn't geared towards recreating ours and instead was allowed to make their own. i have no further input for this thread.
I could have probably phrased the question better. I'm more interested in the level of technology.
oh. huge dichotomy shift here.
what if i were to tell you that i believe it would be easily possible to dwarf our level of technology in less amount of time? think of it this way, we are where we are because we royally mumped up a bunch of times. like, we're the dumbasses we like to make fun of for being dumbasses.
Yeah, but we're using dumbasses from our current society to run this experiment, so I wouldn't expect results that are a whole lot better.
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If we are talking about only 100,000 people to start out with we are talking at LEAST a few thousand years. You have to figure the population has to get to a certain point before technology even becomes a want, let alone a need. Also take into account how disease and lack of medical care will impact the growth of that population.
Deep down all the human male wants to do is eat and screw. Until there is competition for either of those needs advancement will remain stagnant. Population will have to increase to the point that some guy has to go above and beyond to get laid and get a steak. That's our true starting point for the beginning of technology. Once the "need" for advancement is met there will need to be a substantial population to convert the natural resources and actually build. It will take a long long time to populate the world to have enough people needing technological advancement to force them to work to gather these resources... In other words... Slavery. The human race hits a glass ceiling at some point until they begin forced labor and add violence to the mix.
It's a far more complex and complicated matter than wanting an iPhone.
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Also we're going to have to find a way to pump a crap ton of CO2 into the atmosphere or it's going to freeze really rough ridin' fast.
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Also we're going to have to find a way to pump a crap ton of CO2 into the atmosphere or it's going to freeze really rough ridin' fast.
Burn forests.
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I think technology could go in different directions, too. Like, imagine if we started harnessing solar or wind power before coal?
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I think technology could go in different directions, too. Like, imagine if we started harnessing solar or wind power before coal?
I think it would depend greatly on where the people of this new world start out and how the resources are distributed. Mankind has used windmills since the first century AD, btw.
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There was already a book written about this, very good IMO.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fen%2F3%2F3f%2FEarth_Abides_1949_small.jpg&hash=8fbcd6382d9491f0274119562cb25d45f6f741ca)
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Also, its not like all 100k would work together as a team. They'd break up into small groups and fight.
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Lots of them would sex.
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I would invent foxxy boxxing
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Also, its not like all 100k would work together as a team. They'd break up into small groups and fight.
This is an interesting aspect of it. It's an experiment that I wish I could watch unfold over time. How long does the massive group cooperate? When do small groups break off? How far do they migrate? All of it would be pretty cool to watch unfold.
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If someone doesn't figure out a way to make TV shows rather quickly, then please don't include me in the 100k. TIA.
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If someone doesn't figure out a way to make TV shows rather quickly, then please don't include me in the 100k. TIA.
Along a similar line, if gE doesn't exist in the first month, then :shooturmouth:
(I'm pretty sure some redneck will have crafted a gun out of bamboo shoots within the first week, so yes, the above would be possible.)
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What if the human race began as this kind of an experiment by aliens?
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Personally I like to research Writing before Masonry or Iron Working because then I can build the Great Library and not have to build a library in my first city and my science production goes through the roof until Montezuma comes and pillages my crap with a bunch of Jaguar warriors and
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Well you guys are talking about what they have to find. I am talking about what they have to create.
In your scenario, food, shelter would be 1 and 2. In my scenario, what comes after staplers? Probably pesticides. Tobias is ahead of himself with GMO's. That is somewhere around 8.
weapons, weapons will be in the top 3 maybe 2
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Personally I like to research Writing before Masonry or Iron Working because then I can build the Great Library and not have to build a library in my first city and my science production goes through the roof until Montezuma comes and pillages my crap with a bunch of Jaguar warriors and
is that age of empires talk because, if so, i love you.
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Personally I like to research Writing before Masonry or Iron Working because then I can build the Great Library and not have to build a library in my first city and my science production goes through the roof until Montezuma comes and pillages my crap with a bunch of Jaguar warriors and
is that age of empires talk because, if so, i love you.
Civ
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eyeglasses
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I was thinking about this today...clothing would be tricky. hmmmm
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Also, its not like all 100k would work together as a team. They'd break up into small groups and fight.
This is an interesting aspect of it. It's an experiment that I wish I could watch unfold over time. How long does the massive group cooperate? When do small groups break off? How far do they migrate? All of it would be pretty cool to watch unfold.
The massive group sticks together for less than 1 week. Then they realize its martial law, and its a fight oven women and resources.