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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: kso_FAN on January 21, 2014, 08:47:37 AM
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First the bad; Texas is one of the 3 worst match-ups in the league for K-State. They have lots of size and length inside (like KU and Baylor) and if the Cats can't hit jumpshots this could mean trouble. Note that teams are only shooting 43.5% on 2s and the Longhorns block an incredible 18.6% of 2PT attempts (#2 nationally). This is Barnes' best team in several years and Texas has shown the ability to beat good teams as they are 6-4 vs the kenpom Top 100. In Austin Texas has frequently bullied the Cats and had some incredible FT rates including an amazing 117% in 2012. This year's version of Texas also wants a game at 70 possessions or above, while K-State would prefer the mid-60s.
However, Texas is not Kansas and while they can cause problems, they don't have KU's explosive ability on offense and aren't likely to explode for 1.2 points per possession above. I mentioned their pace and they aren't a patient team nor do they score a lot within their offense (around 45% of their made shots come off of assists, worst in the league). K-State's discipline and patience on defense (K-State forces opponents to use 18 seconds of clock on their offensive possessions for the season) could give Texas lots of problems. Some keys will be staying even on the offensive glass (UT is best in the league at dboarding) and hitting some perimeter shots, but the Cats must also get some points in the paint (this means Gip playing well). Texas is also turnover prone on offense and K-State is coming off its best game forcing TOs in league play.
Texas has good inside/outside balance with bigs Holmes and Ridley averaging 13 and 11 and guards Felix and Taylor averaging 12 and 11 points per game. Holmes will step out and shoot 3s (39%) and is the Longhorns' best rebounder, though Ridley isn't far behind. Taylor and Felix are both solid PGs and Taylor is similar to WVU's Staten in that he's not much of a threat to shoot 3s (only 11 attempts) but he can get inside a defense and has a FT rate above 70%. Felix is an inefficient scorer though as he shoots 30% of UT's shots, but only makes 37% of his 2s and 33% of his 3s. Guards Holland and Croaker and another big that can shoot in Lammert are UT's 3 other key players.
Tonight's game won't likely make or break K-State's season, but its still an important game. The Cats can go 0-2 this week and still be in decent position to be an upper half finisher in the league and an NCAA team. However, starting off the next 4 games (3 on the road) with a win against a quality team puts K-State in great position to be one of the top 3 teams in the Big 12 with KU and OSU. I think K-State controls pace in the 60s and guys like Foster and Gip step up going back to their home state while the Wildcat shooting continues to be effective.
Cats 69 - Horns 65
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Foster goes for 20+
Gip gets a dub-dub
Shane stays adorable
Cats- 71
Beef- 64
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Foster goes for 20+
Gip gets a dub-dub
Shane stays adorable
Cats- 71
Beef- 64
he should be so lucky.
This really is a good barometer game of where K-state is. Like you said, it won't make or break the season...but a win, and i'll party hard.
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my main concern is road refs just screwing the ever-loving crap out of K-State. I still remember Frank's last trip down there, 33 to 16 on fouls.
http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=320420251 (http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=320420251)
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_FAN, where did you find stats for how long K-State's opponents get into the shot clock before getting a shot off? Just average out the possession for both us and our opponent or did someone keep track?
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my main concern is road refs just screwing the ever-loving crap out of K-State. I still remember Frank's last trip down there, 33 to 16 on fouls.
http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=320420251 (http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=320420251)
Last year was 26 to 17 too.
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_FAN, where did you find stats for how long K-State's opponents get into the shot clock before getting a shot off? Just average out the possession for both us and our opponent or did someone keep track?
None other than the BITB of ADV stats, Kenny P.
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I start with the default position that we beat Texas, and that's my gut feeling. But I'm going to go with the Horns. 74-62, because I've picked against the Cats all year and it's worked out pretty well.
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is there a foul efficiency stat? I'd be curious how our fouls per possession compare to other teams, past KSU teams, etc.
I feel like we play pretty good defense but, at the same time, foul at a lower rate than previous seasons.
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_FAN, where did you find stats for how long K-State's opponents get into the shot clock before getting a shot off? Just average out the possession for both us and our opponent or did someone keep track?
None other than the BITB of ADV stats, Kenny P.
did you hear Fran drop a KenPom.com reference last night when talking about better ratings and stat than rpi, etc? Tempo free is coming
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Texas has one big guy who's like hilariously big for being a basketball player
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is there a foul efficiency stat? I'd be curious how our fouls per possession compare to other teams, past KSU teams, etc.
I feel like we play pretty good defense but, at the same time, foul at a lower rate than previous seasons.
FT rate (FT attempts/FG attempts) is a decent indicator. Right now we are at 43.0% on defense. That's up from last year's 36.8%. The difference could be that were are shooting more FTs/drawing more fouls ourselves, our offensive FT rate is up to 43.3% this year from 31.7% last year.
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did you hear Fran drop a KenPom.com reference last night when talking about better ratings and stat than rpi, etc? Tempo free is coming
Yes, it was great.
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I feel like you had to talk yourself into the last paragraph and you don't really believe we'll get the W _Fan.
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I feel like you had to talk yourself into the last paragraph and you don't really believe we'll get the W _Fan.
I'd say I'm 60-40ish.
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Texas has a weird roster, they have no real swing men or tweeners. Their backcourt is very small and have their big front-court lacks quickness. They are incapable of going small, offensively we should spread them out and move the ball well and allow Shane or Westicles to use their quickness to get to the rim. If he can defensively hold the post we should be fine. As always have to hit shots to win on the road.
I am not all that afraid of teams that are big on the post. But I am terrified of teams with big guards that can apply ball pressure. We are always going to be smaller at the post but when you compound that at 4 of 5 positions it is capable of getting really ugly.
Cats should win. 74-67
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:excited: must get angry. :bball: :curse:
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Texas has a weird roster, they have no real swing men or tweeners. Their backcourt is very small and have their big front-court lacks quickness. They are incapable of going small, offensively we should spread them out and move the ball well and allow Shane or Westicles to use their quickness to get to the rim. If he can defensively hold the post we should be fine. As always have to hit shots to win on the road.
I am not all that afraid of teams that are big on the post. But I am terrified of teams with big guards that can apply ball pressure. We are always going to be smaller at the post but when you compound that at 4 of 5 positions it is capable of getting really ugly.
Cats should win. 74-67
Good points, and this is the thing that makes what oscar is doing with line-ups unique IMO. I pointed out last year that people usually call our line-ups "4 guards", but I said its more of a "double swing" line up, meaning we play a pair of swing type players with 2 guards and a big.
According to kenpom's new "most frequent line-ups" chart, K-State uses 2 guards, 2 swings, and 1 big nearly 2/3 of the time and 3 guards, 1 swing, and 1 big the other 1/3.
FYI, I placed the players in these categories:
Guards: Thomas, Spradling, Foster, Lawrence, Johnson.
Swings: Southwell, Westicles, Williams
Bigs: Gip, DJamer.
While Texas has 2 bigs (6-8 or bigger) over 90% of the time, 2/3 of the time the other 3 players are all 6-3 or smaller. Occasionally (<10%) they have played 4 guards (tallest player 6-4) and 1 big.
The "most frequent line-ups" kenpom tracks only covers the previous 5 games.
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my main concern is road refs just screwing the ever-loving crap out of K-State. I still remember Frank's last trip down there, 33 to 16 on fouls.
http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=320420251 (http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=320420251)
I remember that game well. The first half went well, the game was being called even and we had a decent lead at halftime. Then in the second, we got whistled for any contact at all while they were still allowed to mug Angel and Rodney all over the court. We didn't have a chance in that game with the way it was officiated.
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Definitely not THE game that will define our B12 standing but one of a handful that will play a big roll in it. Beating OSU, even at home, is huge. Its one that few teams will get and would be a likely tiebreaker in the event we split with a team and finish with the same record. .500 would be OK but finishing a game up in the OU/UT/ISU/Baylor series would be huge. UT might be the most winnable roadie out of those to give us that shot.
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Texas has a weird roster, they have no real swing men or tweeners. Their backcourt is very small and have their big front-court lacks quickness. They are incapable of going small, offensively we should spread them out and move the ball well and allow Shane or Westicles to use their quickness to get to the rim. If he can defensively hold the post we should be fine. As always have to hit shots to win on the road.
I am not all that afraid of teams that are big on the post. But I am terrified of teams with big guards that can apply ball pressure. We are always going to be smaller at the post but when you compound that at 4 of 5 positions it is capable of getting really ugly.
Cats should win. 74-67
Good points, and this is the thing that makes what oscar is doing with line-ups unique IMO. I pointed out last year that people usually call our line-ups "4 guards", but I said its more of a "double swing" line up, meaning we play a pair of swing type players with 2 guards and a big.
According to kenpom's new "most frequent line-ups" chart, K-State uses 2 guards, 2 swings, and 1 big nearly 2/3 of the time and 3 guards, 1 swing, and 1 big the other 1/3.
FYI, I placed the players in these categories:
Guards: Thomas, Spradling, Foster, Lawrence, Johnson.
Swings: Southwell, Westicles, Williams
Bigs: Gip, DJamer.
While Texas has 2 bigs (6-8 or bigger) over 90% of the time, 2/3 of the time the other 3 players are all 6-3 or smaller. Occasionally (<10%) they have played 4 guards (tallest player 6-4) and 1 big.
The "most frequent line-ups" kenpom tracks only covers the previous 5 games.
I hope kenpoms most "frequent line-ups" is the first step towards individual defensive efficiency numbers.
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my main concern is road refs just screwing the ever-loving crap out of K-State. I still remember Frank's last trip down there, 33 to 16 on fouls.
http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=320420251 (http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=320420251)
I remember that game well. The first half went well, the game was being called even and we had a decent lead at halftime. Then in the second, we got whistled for any contact at all while they were still allowed to mug Angel and Rodney all over the court. We didn't have a chance in that game with the way it was officiated.
http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=19108.msg460180#msg460180
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Definitely not THE game that will define our B12 standing but one of a handful that will play a big roll in it. Beating OSU, even at home, is huge. Its one that few teams will get and would be a likely tiebreaker in the event we split with a team and finish with the same record. .500 would be OK but finishing a game up in the OU/UT/ISU/Baylor series would be huge. UT might be the most winnable roadie out of those to give us that shot.
Are you referring to seeding in the Big 12 tournament? Cat fans should know there are no tiebreakers for the confy champy :whistle1:
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i wish texans cared about basketball so i could super bowl the crap out of this :shy:
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Definitely not THE game that will define our B12 standing but one of a handful that will play a big roll in it. Beating OSU, even at home, is huge. Its one that few teams will get and would be a likely tiebreaker in the event we split with a team and finish with the same record. .500 would be OK but finishing a game up in the OU/UT/ISU/Baylor series would be huge. UT might be the most winnable roadie out of those to give us that shot.
Are you referring to seeding in the Big 12 tournament? Cat fans should know there are no tiebreakers for the confy champy :whistle1:
KU fans certainly know that well.
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Definitely not THE game that will define our B12 standing but one of a handful that will play a big roll in it. Beating OSU, even at home, is huge. Its one that few teams will get and would be a likely tiebreaker in the event we split with a team and finish with the same record. .500 would be OK but finishing a game up in the OU/UT/ISU/Baylor series would be huge. UT might be the most winnable roadie out of those to give us that shot.
Are you referring to seeding in the Big 12 tournament? Cat fans should know there are no tiebreakers for the confy champy :whistle1:
KU fans certainly know that well.
Indeed.
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let's win tonight
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Holmes only has 4 3pt (4-17) in last 7 games. Felix is 7-27 from 3pt in B12 play. Taylor and Holland don't shoot many 3s (1-7 combined in B12 play). Lambert only has 3 3pt makes in his last 14 games. Those 5 players play almost 80% of the minutes at the 1-4 positions. Ridley and Ibeh who play the 5, don't shoot 3s. Croaker is the one on the team that has the ability to shoot/make 3s, but he has only played 25 min that last 3 games.
With us being a good guarding 3s and not allowing a lot of 3 pt shots..... UT's 2pt FG% could be a huge factor tonight. In B12 play, about 72% of UT's shot come from 2.
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Holmes only has 4 3pt (4-17) in last 7 games. Felix is 7-27 from 3pt in B12 play. Taylor and Holland don't shoot many 3s (1-7 combined in B12 play). Lambert only has 3 3pt makes in his last 14 games. Those 5 players play almost 80% of the minutes at the 1-4 positions. Ridley and Ibeh who play the 5, don't shoot 3s. Croaker is the one on the team that has the ability to shoot/make 3s, but he has only played 25 min that last 3 games.
With us being a good guarding 3s and not allowing a lot of 3 pt shots..... UT's 2pt FG% could be a huge factor tonight. In B12 play, about 72% of UT's shot come from 2.
Good points. Also in Big 12 games, 40.5% of FG attempts against UT are 3s and teams are making 34.2%. Of course they played ISU and over half of ISU's FGAs against UT were 3s.
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A lot has changed since last time these teams met and both teams sat at 14-4 overall. UT has continued their run since beating K-State on Holmes' buzzer beater including an impressive home win over Kansas. The numbers from last time (http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=30915.msg1023802#msg1023802) show that the Cats competed well in Austin, including excellent 2nd half defense, but it wasn't enough to overcome poor 2PT shooting in the 2nd half for the win. Despite what seems like it should have been an incredible advantage inside (note UT's 2PT defense and block%), K-State (thanks to Gip) competed well with Texas in the paint. Texas was also helped by a slight advantage in FT rate and those 4 extra makes on FTs proved beneficial.
K-State has played excellent at home, especially on the defensive end. This is a huge 2 game stretch for K-State and based on how K-State played in Texas (despite poor games from Foster and Shane) and a week off I really like the Cats in this game. I think the Cats play energized basketball, get back to hitting some 3s, and come away Saturday afternoon with the win.
Cats 74 Horns 68
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A lot has changed since last time these teams met and both teams sat at 14-4 overall. UT has continued their run since beating K-State on Holmes' buzzer beater including an impressive home win over Kansas. The numbers from last time (http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=30915.msg1023802#msg1023802) show that the Cats competed well in Austin, including excellent 2nd half defense, but it wasn't enough to overcome poor 2PT shooting in the 2nd half for the win. Despite what seems like it should have been an incredible advantage inside (note UT's 2PT defense and block%), K-State (thanks to Gip) competed well with Texas in the paint. Texas was also helped by a slight advantage in FT rate and those 4 extra makes on FTs proved beneficial.
K-State has played excellent at home, especially on the defensive end. This is a huge 2 game stretch for K-State and based on how K-State played in Texas (despite poor games from Foster and Shane) and a week off I really like the Cats in this game. I think the Cats play energized basketball, get back to hitting some 3s, and come away Saturday afternoon with the win.
Cats 74 Horns 68
:D
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:thumbsup:
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Sprads is gonna hit 4 3 point shots.
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Sprads is gonna hit 4 3 point shots.
meh idk.
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Spradling imposes himself one game in four years and all of a sudden he is "fixed".
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Without his undershirt I see him continuing his progressive growth towards his best game ever. Knock on wood, but he has been clutch lately.
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He's been good. I associate "clutch" with winning, though.
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True, but I see it as. . "Oh we're down? Let me just nail this impossibly hard moving three."
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Our ownership of Texas is slipping big time. Lets get that up and running again ASAP.
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I think we get the W tomorrow and hold Texas to just under 1.00 ppp.
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Our ownership of Texas is slipping big time. Lets get that up and running again ASAP.
:thumbs: