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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: michigancat on January 09, 2014, 03:15:45 PM

Title: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on January 09, 2014, 03:15:45 PM
According to kenpom:

Year   AdjD   Rank
2014   91.6   12
2013   95.0   56
2012   92.3   21
2011   93.4   25
2010   91.3   16
2009   95.5   49
2008   96.0   52
2007   95.0   39
2006   96.6   69
2005   99.1   100
2004   95.2   44
2003   96.5   66


:users:
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: kso_FAN on January 09, 2014, 03:17:00 PM
#bruceketball
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: _33 on January 09, 2014, 03:19:33 PM
Is this something that we should expect to remain this good all year or are people just randomly missing a ton of shots and we're going to come back to the mean?  I know we're good on defense, but are we THIS good is what I am asking.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: kso_FAN on January 09, 2014, 03:20:43 PM
Is this something that we should expect to remain this good all year or are people just randomly missing a ton of shots and we're going to come back to the mean?  I know we're good on defense, but are we THIS good is what I am asking.

I seriously doubt the 3PT% against us remains at 25%. And someone is going to jump up and hit 45% or something at some point, it just happens.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: sunny_cat on January 09, 2014, 03:21:11 PM
According to kenpom:

Year   AdjD   Rank
2014   91.6   12
2013   95.0   56
2012   92.3   21
2011   93.4   25
2010   91.3   16
2009   95.5   49
2008   96.0   52
2007   95.0   39
2006   96.6   69
2005   99.1   100
2004   95.2   44
2003   96.5   66


:users:

Elite Eight or bust. :users:
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: dal9 on January 09, 2014, 03:45:49 PM
I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the  level of competition goes up in conference.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: sunny_cat on January 09, 2014, 03:46:38 PM
I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the  level of competition goes up in conference.

Agreed
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on January 09, 2014, 03:53:26 PM
I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the  level of competition goes up in conference.

Agreed

It is a fluke.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_3-point_line_is_a_lottery/

Still, the overall numbers are very good.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: sunny_cat on January 09, 2014, 03:53:59 PM
I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the  level of competition goes up in conference.

Agreed

It is a fluke.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_3-point_line_is_a_lottery/

Still, the overall numbers are very good.

Welp
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: kso_FAN on January 09, 2014, 03:54:36 PM
It's not a complete fluke, but 25% is ridiculous and probably not realistic.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on January 09, 2014, 04:03:47 PM
It's not a complete fluke, but 25% is ridiculous and probably not realistic.

I think a ridiculous and not realistically sustainable statistic can be considered a complete fluke.

oscar's 3Pt D has only been below 30% once, when it was 29.6% in 2009.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: dal9 on January 09, 2014, 05:01:25 PM
Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm  going to $#!+ on kenpom  a little bit.  Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on. 

Graph 1 is relationship between 3 point D% this year and last year, for all NBA teams.  There's a little bit of a slope, but not that much going on. 

Graph 2 is only the teams in the NBA who have the same coach this year and last (and so are presumably running the same defensive system). Well: much stronger relationship.  (R squared is .15)




[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: sunny_cat on January 09, 2014, 05:03:29 PM
Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm  going to $#!+ on kenpom  a little bit.  Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on. 

Cursing is allowed as long as you keep your posts family-oriented.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: dal9 on January 09, 2014, 05:04:06 PM
here are the raw numbers if anyone wants them
team   newcoach   thisyear   lastyear
Indiana   0   .326   .327
Oklahoma City   0   .336   .346
Golden State   0   .344   .347
Portland   0   .352   .34
LA Lakers   0   .339   .357
Washington   0   .357   .349
Chicago   0   .37   .346
Dallas   0   .359   .359
Miami   0   .371   .35
San Antonio   0   .368   .353
Houston   0   .354   .367
New York   0   .366   .357
Orlando   0   .364   .359
New Orleans   0   .351   .374
Toronto   0   .364   .361
Minnesota   0   .357   .369
Utah   0   .356   .37
Detroit   0   .37   .36
Boston   1   .337   .342
Memphis   1   .36   .338
Denver   1   .339   .363
LA Clippers   1   .33   .373
Milwaukee   1   .363   .348
Philadelphia   1   .373   .349
Phoenix   1   .336   .388
Cleveland   1   .353   .372
Atlanta   1   .346   .379
Sacramento   1   .391   .355
Brooklyn   1   .39   .366
Charlotte   1   .375   .388
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: dal9 on January 09, 2014, 05:06:30 PM
Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm  going to $#!+ on kenpom  a little bit.  Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on. 

Cursing is allowed as long as you keep your posts family-oriented.

thanks, I do like to curse. 
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on January 09, 2014, 05:14:59 PM
Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm  going to $#!+ on kenpom  a little bit.  Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on. 

Graph 1 is relationship between 3 point D% this year and last year, for all NBA teams.  There's a little bit of a slope, but not that much going on. 

Graph 2 is only the teams in the NBA who have the same coach this year and last (and so are presumably running the same defensive system). Well: much stronger relationship.  (R squared is .15)




that's good stuff (and feel free to crap away), but it's a really small sample size and weak correlation.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: sys on January 09, 2014, 07:53:15 PM
evaluate the numbers after the season.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: _33 on January 09, 2014, 07:57:50 PM
What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on January 09, 2014, 08:15:45 PM
evaluate the numbers after the season.

Yes, I will update this thread. But these numbers are the most encouraged I've been by oscar, even though we've been lucky with opponents' threes.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on January 09, 2014, 08:17:15 PM
What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

they get lucky
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: kso_FAN on January 09, 2014, 08:17:53 PM
What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

The best three point defense is to not let your opponent shoot very many 3s.

Other than that, what you say is solid.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: pvegs on January 09, 2014, 08:28:40 PM
What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

The best three point defense is to not let your opponent shoot very many 3s.

Other than that, what you say is solid.

Makes sense. Against O-State Brown and Forte only took 6 combined while Smart took 6 by himself. We've only allowed 247 attempts on the season which is #2 in conference. I'd also say we've played some pretty awful offensive teams like TCU, Tulane, etc and run into some luck/terrible shooting nights like Marshall Henderson going 2-13.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: husserl on January 09, 2014, 09:13:09 PM
What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

Maybe you try extra hard to minimize the proportion of attempts given up from the corner (especially in the nba)?  :dunno:
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: Cartierfor3 on January 09, 2014, 09:18:29 PM
According to kenpom:

Year   AdjD   Rank
2014   91.6   12
2013   95.0   56
2012   92.3   21
2011   93.4   25
2010   91.3   16
2009   95.5   49
2008   96.0   52
2007   95.0   39
2006   96.6   69
2005   99.1   100
2004   95.2   44
2003   96.5   66


:users:

 :love:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJq0C-Hqz6A (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJq0C-Hqz6A)
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on January 09, 2014, 11:07:30 PM
What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

The best three point defense is to not let your opponent shoot very many 3s.

Other than that, what you say is solid.

Makes sense. Against O-State Brown and Forte only took 6 combined while Smart took 6 by himself. We've only allowed 247 attempts on the season which is #2 in conference. I'd also say we've played some pretty awful offensive teams like TCU, Tulane, etc and run into some luck/terrible shooting nights like Marshall Henderson going 2-13.

Well, I don't want to take the time to post the graph, but I charted last year's Opp3FG% vs. Opp3FGA% and there is basically zero correlation between the two.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: ksupamplemousse on January 09, 2014, 11:13:25 PM
I'm still shocked at our 3pt% defense. Just the eye test, but it seems like other teams have had a lot of wide open looks from outside, and they're just flat out missing them. I would have to think that this stat will even out over the course of the year, and that's not great news for the cats. No fancy stats here folks, just my peepers, and what they peep could spell trouble for us down the road.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on January 09, 2014, 11:19:58 PM
I'm still shocked at our 3pt% defense. Just the eye test, but it seems like other teams have had a lot of wide open looks from outside, and they're just flat out missing them. I would have to think that this stat will even out over the course of the year, and that's not great news for the cats. No fancy stats here folks, just my peepers, and what they peep could spell trouble for us down the road.

Our current 3FG defense would easily be the best in the last 10 years if it held out. It won't.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: ksupamplemousse on January 09, 2014, 11:22:57 PM
Hopefully KU takes 50 threes this Saturday and makes them all, so we can appease the stat gods in one fell swoop.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: millertime on January 10, 2014, 12:19:11 AM
The 3pt defense will even out in the two games against Iowa State, they just never miss.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: pvegs on January 10, 2014, 01:13:31 AM
The 3pt defense will even out in the two games against Iowa State, they just never miss.

3-Point FG Percentage
## Team                  G     FG   FGA   Pct
---------------------------------------------
 1.Baylor.............. 14     99   232  .427
 2.West Virginia....... 15    123   309  .398
 3.Oklahoma............ 15    115   303  .380
 4.Oklahoma State...... 15    104   275  .378
 5.Iowa State.......... 14    127   348  .365
 6.Kansas.............. 14     73   214  .341
 7.Texas............... 15     81   239  .339
 8.TCU................. 14     69   207  .333
 9.Texas Tech.......... 15     73   229  .319
10.Kansas State........ 15     87   286  .304
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: nicname on January 10, 2014, 01:25:47 AM
What do good 3 pt% defense teams do?  Get a hand in the face?  Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense.  Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock?  Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.

I think that's it for the most part.  Forcing teams to shoot mid-range rather than 3-pointers or, as you said, forcing a majority of 3's to be rushed late in the shot clock types.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: kso_FAN on January 10, 2014, 06:32:37 AM
I assume most people have read these, but I'll post them again anyway.

The first one addresses our situation: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p

The second one does show that teams do have some control on 3pt shot quality and thus have some control on 3pt defense: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/one_last_post_on_3p_defense
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: Cartierfor3 on January 10, 2014, 08:45:14 AM
I assume most people have read these, but I'll post them again anyway.

The first one addresses our situation: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p

The second one does show that teams do have some control on 3pt shot quality and thus have some control on 3pt defense: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/one_last_post_on_3p_defense


marshall henderson is a big helper
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on January 10, 2014, 10:27:11 AM
I assume most people have read these, but I'll post them again anyway.

The first one addresses our situation: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p

The second one does show that teams do have some control on 3pt shot quality and thus have some control on 3pt defense: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/one_last_post_on_3p_defense

I mean, I could buy that Syracuse affects 3FG, but I'd be skeptical about Arizona. Didn't they have three coaches over the span he was looking at?
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: kso_FAN on January 10, 2014, 10:33:45 AM
I assume most people have read these, but I'll post them again anyway.

The first one addresses our situation: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p

The second one does show that teams do have some control on 3pt shot quality and thus have some control on 3pt defense: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/one_last_post_on_3p_defense

I mean, I could buy that Syracuse affects 3FG, but I'd be skeptical about Arizona. Didn't they have three coaches over the span he was looking at?

Yeah, good point. Miller had 3 seasons of date, but then you had Pennell and O'Neill.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on February 10, 2014, 04:06:41 PM
Year   AdjD   Rank
2014   92.7   13
2013   95.0   56
2012   92.3   21
2011   93.4   25
2010   91.3   16
2009   95.5   49
2008   96.0   52
2007   95.0   39
2006   96.6   69
2005   99.1   100
2004   95.2   44
2003   96.5   66



gotten a tad worse, now at 92.7 but still 13th best in the country.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: Powercat Posse on February 10, 2014, 04:35:57 PM
4 of the last 5 years in the top 25. Impressive
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: sys on February 10, 2014, 04:54:46 PM
the defense has been very surprising, at least to me.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on February 10, 2014, 05:02:04 PM
the defense has been very surprising, at least to me.

I feel like teams should be destroying our lazy ball screen hedges, rotations, and recoveries, but I don't think many college teams are good enough to do that. (KU seems to handle it OK).
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: pissclams on February 10, 2014, 05:12:56 PM
the defense has been very surprising, at least to me.

I feel like teams should be destroying our lazy ball screen hedges, rotations, and recoveries, but I don't think many college teams are good enough to do that. (KU seems to handle it OK).
i agree with this but my mind's eye tells me i shouldn't. 
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: michigancat on February 10, 2014, 05:17:52 PM
the defense has been very surprising, at least to me.

I feel like teams should be destroying our lazy ball screen hedges, rotations, and recoveries, but I don't think many college teams are good enough to do that. (KU seems to handle it OK).
i agree with this but my mind's eye tells me i shouldn't. 

we should probably just accept the numbers, I guess.
Title: Re: KSU defensive efficiency through the years.
Post by: kso_FAN on February 10, 2014, 07:49:17 PM
2PT% is my biggest surprise. We have to have the best 2PT% defenses when compared to bad block% in the country.