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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: michigancat on January 09, 2014, 03:15:45 PM
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According to kenpom:
Year AdjD Rank
2014 91.6 12
2013 95.0 56
2012 92.3 21
2011 93.4 25
2010 91.3 16
2009 95.5 49
2008 96.0 52
2007 95.0 39
2006 96.6 69
2005 99.1 100
2004 95.2 44
2003 96.5 66
:users:
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#bruceketball
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Is this something that we should expect to remain this good all year or are people just randomly missing a ton of shots and we're going to come back to the mean? I know we're good on defense, but are we THIS good is what I am asking.
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Is this something that we should expect to remain this good all year or are people just randomly missing a ton of shots and we're going to come back to the mean? I know we're good on defense, but are we THIS good is what I am asking.
I seriously doubt the 3PT% against us remains at 25%. And someone is going to jump up and hit 45% or something at some point, it just happens.
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According to kenpom:
Year AdjD Rank
2014 91.6 12
2013 95.0 56
2012 92.3 21
2011 93.4 25
2010 91.3 16
2009 95.5 49
2008 96.0 52
2007 95.0 39
2006 96.6 69
2005 99.1 100
2004 95.2 44
2003 96.5 66
:users:
Elite Eight or bust. :users:
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I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the level of competition goes up in conference.
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I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the level of competition goes up in conference.
Agreed
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I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the level of competition goes up in conference.
Agreed
It is a fluke.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_3-point_line_is_a_lottery/
Still, the overall numbers are very good.
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I don't think the 3 point D is a fluke. At the same time, the D Efficiency is bound to get worse as the level of competition goes up in conference.
Agreed
It is a fluke.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_3-point_line_is_a_lottery/
Still, the overall numbers are very good.
Welp
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It's not a complete fluke, but 25% is ridiculous and probably not realistic.
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It's not a complete fluke, but 25% is ridiculous and probably not realistic.
I think a ridiculous and not realistically sustainable statistic can be considered a complete fluke.
oscar's 3Pt D has only been below 30% once, when it was 29.6% in 2009.
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Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm going to $#!+ on kenpom a little bit. Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on.
Graph 1 is relationship between 3 point D% this year and last year, for all NBA teams. There's a little bit of a slope, but not that much going on.
Graph 2 is only the teams in the NBA who have the same coach this year and last (and so are presumably running the same defensive system). Well: much stronger relationship. (R squared is .15)
[attachment deleted by admin]
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Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm going to $#!+ on kenpom a little bit. Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on.
Cursing is allowed as long as you keep your posts family-oriented.
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here are the raw numbers if anyone wants them
team newcoach thisyear lastyear
Indiana 0 .326 .327
Oklahoma City 0 .336 .346
Golden State 0 .344 .347
Portland 0 .352 .34
LA Lakers 0 .339 .357
Washington 0 .357 .349
Chicago 0 .37 .346
Dallas 0 .359 .359
Miami 0 .371 .35
San Antonio 0 .368 .353
Houston 0 .354 .367
New York 0 .366 .357
Orlando 0 .364 .359
New Orleans 0 .351 .374
Toronto 0 .364 .361
Minnesota 0 .357 .369
Utah 0 .356 .37
Detroit 0 .37 .36
Boston 1 .337 .342
Memphis 1 .36 .338
Denver 1 .339 .363
LA Clippers 1 .33 .373
Milwaukee 1 .363 .348
Philadelphia 1 .373 .349
Phoenix 1 .336 .388
Cleveland 1 .353 .372
Atlanta 1 .346 .379
Sacramento 1 .391 .355
Brooklyn 1 .39 .366
Charlotte 1 .375 .388
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Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm going to $#!+ on kenpom a little bit. Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on.
Cursing is allowed as long as you keep your posts family-oriented.
thanks, I do like to curse.
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Alright, so I'm new here, but I'm going to $#!+ on kenpom a little bit. Not saying his numbers are wrong, but let's look at the NBA, where there is some real coaching going on.
Graph 1 is relationship between 3 point D% this year and last year, for all NBA teams. There's a little bit of a slope, but not that much going on.
Graph 2 is only the teams in the NBA who have the same coach this year and last (and so are presumably running the same defensive system). Well: much stronger relationship. (R squared is .15)
that's good stuff (and feel free to crap away), but it's a really small sample size and weak correlation.
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evaluate the numbers after the season.
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What do good 3 pt% defense teams do? Get a hand in the face? Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense. Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock? Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.
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evaluate the numbers after the season.
Yes, I will update this thread. But these numbers are the most encouraged I've been by oscar, even though we've been lucky with opponents' threes.
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What do good 3 pt% defense teams do? Get a hand in the face? Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense. Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock? Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.
they get lucky
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What do good 3 pt% defense teams do? Get a hand in the face? Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense. Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock? Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.
The best three point defense is to not let your opponent shoot very many 3s.
Other than that, what you say is solid.
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What do good 3 pt% defense teams do? Get a hand in the face? Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense. Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock? Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.
The best three point defense is to not let your opponent shoot very many 3s.
Other than that, what you say is solid.
Makes sense. Against O-State Brown and Forte only took 6 combined while Smart took 6 by himself. We've only allowed 247 attempts on the season which is #2 in conference. I'd also say we've played some pretty awful offensive teams like TCU, Tulane, etc and run into some luck/terrible shooting nights like Marshall Henderson going 2-13.
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What do good 3 pt% defense teams do? Get a hand in the face? Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense. Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock? Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.
Maybe you try extra hard to minimize the proportion of attempts given up from the corner (especially in the nba)? :dunno:
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According to kenpom:
Year AdjD Rank
2014 91.6 12
2013 95.0 56
2012 92.3 21
2011 93.4 25
2010 91.3 16
2009 95.5 49
2008 96.0 52
2007 95.0 39
2006 96.6 69
2005 99.1 100
2004 95.2 44
2003 96.5 66
:users:
:love:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJq0C-Hqz6A (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJq0C-Hqz6A)
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What do good 3 pt% defense teams do? Get a hand in the face? Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense. Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock? Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.
The best three point defense is to not let your opponent shoot very many 3s.
Other than that, what you say is solid.
Makes sense. Against O-State Brown and Forte only took 6 combined while Smart took 6 by himself. We've only allowed 247 attempts on the season which is #2 in conference. I'd also say we've played some pretty awful offensive teams like TCU, Tulane, etc and run into some luck/terrible shooting nights like Marshall Henderson going 2-13.
Well, I don't want to take the time to post the graph, but I charted last year's Opp3FG% vs. Opp3FGA% and there is basically zero correlation between the two.
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I'm still shocked at our 3pt% defense. Just the eye test, but it seems like other teams have had a lot of wide open looks from outside, and they're just flat out missing them. I would have to think that this stat will even out over the course of the year, and that's not great news for the cats. No fancy stats here folks, just my peepers, and what they peep could spell trouble for us down the road.
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I'm still shocked at our 3pt% defense. Just the eye test, but it seems like other teams have had a lot of wide open looks from outside, and they're just flat out missing them. I would have to think that this stat will even out over the course of the year, and that's not great news for the cats. No fancy stats here folks, just my peepers, and what they peep could spell trouble for us down the road.
Our current 3FG defense would easily be the best in the last 10 years if it held out. It won't.
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Hopefully KU takes 50 threes this Saturday and makes them all, so we can appease the stat gods in one fell swoop.
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The 3pt defense will even out in the two games against Iowa State, they just never miss.
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The 3pt defense will even out in the two games against Iowa State, they just never miss.
3-Point FG Percentage
## Team G FG FGA Pct
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1.Baylor.............. 14 99 232 .427
2.West Virginia....... 15 123 309 .398
3.Oklahoma............ 15 115 303 .380
4.Oklahoma State...... 15 104 275 .378
5.Iowa State.......... 14 127 348 .365
6.Kansas.............. 14 73 214 .341
7.Texas............... 15 81 239 .339
8.TCU................. 14 69 207 .333
9.Texas Tech.......... 15 73 229 .319
10.Kansas State........ 15 87 286 .304
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What do good 3 pt% defense teams do? Get a hand in the face? Seems like running them off the 3 point line is the best defense but that wouldn't help your 3 pt% defense. Maybe it is helped by playing really good defense and forcing a contested 3 at the end of the shot clock? Just trying to get a grasp on what we could be doing.
I think that's it for the most part. Forcing teams to shoot mid-range rather than 3-pointers or, as you said, forcing a majority of 3's to be rushed late in the shot clock types.
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I assume most people have read these, but I'll post them again anyway.
The first one addresses our situation: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p
The second one does show that teams do have some control on 3pt shot quality and thus have some control on 3pt defense: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/one_last_post_on_3p_defense
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I assume most people have read these, but I'll post them again anyway.
The first one addresses our situation: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p
The second one does show that teams do have some control on 3pt shot quality and thus have some control on 3pt defense: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/one_last_post_on_3p_defense
marshall henderson is a big helper
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I assume most people have read these, but I'll post them again anyway.
The first one addresses our situation: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p
The second one does show that teams do have some control on 3pt shot quality and thus have some control on 3pt defense: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/one_last_post_on_3p_defense
I mean, I could buy that Syracuse affects 3FG, but I'd be skeptical about Arizona. Didn't they have three coaches over the span he was looking at?
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I assume most people have read these, but I'll post them again anyway.
The first one addresses our situation: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p
The second one does show that teams do have some control on 3pt shot quality and thus have some control on 3pt defense: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/one_last_post_on_3p_defense
I mean, I could buy that Syracuse affects 3FG, but I'd be skeptical about Arizona. Didn't they have three coaches over the span he was looking at?
Yeah, good point. Miller had 3 seasons of date, but then you had Pennell and O'Neill.
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Year AdjD Rank
2014 92.7 13
2013 95.0 56
2012 92.3 21
2011 93.4 25
2010 91.3 16
2009 95.5 49
2008 96.0 52
2007 95.0 39
2006 96.6 69
2005 99.1 100
2004 95.2 44
2003 96.5 66
gotten a tad worse, now at 92.7 but still 13th best in the country.
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4 of the last 5 years in the top 25. Impressive
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the defense has been very surprising, at least to me.
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the defense has been very surprising, at least to me.
I feel like teams should be destroying our lazy ball screen hedges, rotations, and recoveries, but I don't think many college teams are good enough to do that. (KU seems to handle it OK).
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the defense has been very surprising, at least to me.
I feel like teams should be destroying our lazy ball screen hedges, rotations, and recoveries, but I don't think many college teams are good enough to do that. (KU seems to handle it OK).
i agree with this but my mind's eye tells me i shouldn't.
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the defense has been very surprising, at least to me.
I feel like teams should be destroying our lazy ball screen hedges, rotations, and recoveries, but I don't think many college teams are good enough to do that. (KU seems to handle it OK).
i agree with this but my mind's eye tells me i shouldn't.
we should probably just accept the numbers, I guess.
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2PT% is my biggest surprise. We have to have the best 2PT% defenses when compared to bad block% in the country.