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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: Dr Rick Daris on January 01, 2014, 04:01:05 PM

Title: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on January 01, 2014, 04:01:05 PM
so not a day goes by (yesterday and today) where somebody doesn't want to talk to me about the cats chances at the big dance (ncaa tourney). what do you guys think,etc?


i mean my goodness i just don't see it.

ncaa-7%
nit-90%
nothing-3%
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: puniraptor on January 01, 2014, 04:02:07 PM
Sorry, rick. We are good now. 72% NCAA.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: kso_FAN on January 01, 2014, 04:02:42 PM
40-60 (NCAA-NIT)
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: kim carnes on January 01, 2014, 04:07:13 PM
i think we all know where i stand here
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on January 01, 2014, 04:08:22 PM
40-60 (NCAA-NIT)

wow. seriously? that just seems too high. i will say that yesterday was the first day since the hiring where i wasn't 100% sure that this was going to end up horribly. _fan has a lasso and he's slowly pulling me towards the fence. the rope is super thin though and barely attached to my ankle but still.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: kso_FAN on January 01, 2014, 04:12:49 PM
40-60 seems to fit what IMHO is a .500-ish Big 12 team that will be on the bubble.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: kim carnes on January 01, 2014, 04:18:48 PM
40-60 seems to fit what IMHO is a .500-ish Big 12 team that will be on the bubble.

Charlotte and N Colorado, sinks the ship.

its not who you lose to, its who you beat
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: kso_FAN on January 01, 2014, 04:20:24 PM
40-60 seems to fit what IMHO is a .500-ish Big 12 team that will be on the bubble.

Charlotte and N Colorado, sinks the ship.

True, but both were early in the year, no Gip for NC, no Jevon for either.

IIRC, I've said we probably need 10-11 total Big 12 wins (including postseason tournament) and 6 wins vs RPI top 50 teams, but if we go .500 in the league we will be discussed on the bubble.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Jackstack99EMAW on January 01, 2014, 04:20:59 PM
Get a few wins over OSU, KU, ISU, Baylor, Texas mix and there's a decent chance.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: sunny_cat on January 01, 2014, 04:36:34 PM
40-60 seems to fit what IMHO is a .500-ish Big 12 team that will be on the bubble.

Charlotte and N Colorado, sinks the ship.

its not who you lose to, its who you beat

Pretty sure they look at both, losses to teams outside 150 are viewed negatively.

Yeah, bad losses matter. I still think we have a good shot at the tournament.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: chum1 on January 01, 2014, 05:02:15 PM
Bad losses do not matter at all.  (Unless you're talking about getting a top seed.) Lack of good wins can hurt a bubble team. 
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: sunny_cat on January 01, 2014, 05:02:50 PM
Bad losses do not matter at all.  (Unless you're talking about getting a top seed.) Lack of good wins can hurt a bubble team.

Interesting if true
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: chum1 on January 01, 2014, 05:07:28 PM
I think we'll be in.  We shouldn't drop from 1st last year to 7th this year.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: TownieCat on January 01, 2014, 05:18:59 PM
If we miss the tourney it will not be because we lost to NC on Nov 8. 10 more wins and we are in. The B12's RPI will get at least 5 teams in, and possibly 6.

Four RPI top 75 wins in the noncon helps too. That's just as many as KU, ISU, and OSU have...
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: sunny_cat on January 01, 2014, 05:23:17 PM
All right, guys. I'm counting on you being right, then.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on January 01, 2014, 05:26:00 PM
no way in hell our conference is not getting 6 teams in. also, have you "make the dance" dorks "done the math" and "put pen to paper" to see who we need to beat in order to get 10 wins? it really seems very unlikely.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: wetwillie on January 01, 2014, 05:28:29 PM
Shane Southwell is not going to play in the NIT.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: sunny_cat on January 01, 2014, 05:29:03 PM
no way in hell our conference is not getting 6 teams in. also, have you "make the dance" dorks "done the math" and "put pen to paper" to see who we need to beat in order to get 10 wins? it really seems very unlikely.

I have 9-9 in the predicto thread.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: HerrSonntag on January 01, 2014, 06:12:35 PM
the real question is, who will oscar blame our first round exit on?
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: sunny_cat on January 01, 2014, 06:13:19 PM
the real question is, who will oscar blame our first round exit on?

Those final exams, man. I tell ya.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: kslim on January 01, 2014, 06:13:59 PM
no way in hell our conference is not getting 6 teams in. also, have you "make the dance" dorks "done the math" and "put pen to paper" to see who we need to beat in order to get 10 wins? it really seems very unlikely.
yeah but Jevon and Marcus tho
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 01, 2014, 07:11:33 PM
It's frustrating that OU is getting more mileage out of a 10 pt loss to Michigan State than we are for beating Zags, Admiral Akbar, and GW.

We'll be braketologied as a 7 seed (green arrow pointing up) after we thump tbpSU.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Tobias on January 02, 2014, 09:40:17 AM
would like to be wrong, but feels like an NIT team to me
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep on January 02, 2014, 09:54:26 AM
TCU- 2 wins
Tech- 2 wins
WVU- 1.5 wins
Texas- 1 win
OU- 1 win
Baylor- 1 win
ISU- 1 win
OSU- 0 wins
KU- 0 wins

This is going to sound really "well, duh, no crap" but whatever. Take care of business against the bottom 3 and beat the middle of the road at home. Maybe steal a game at home against the top 3 or on the road against the middle of the pack? I think this is pretty realistic. 9-10 wins. Key out of conference win against Zaga. Bad losses to start the season but without key players, the committee looks at more recent play. Get a win, maybe 2 in the B12 tourney and be a 7/8 seed...
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: steve dave on January 02, 2014, 09:57:32 AM
something we have going for us is the committee will put astericks by the early losses if Jevon plays well all season. so that's good.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Panjandrum on January 02, 2014, 10:20:39 AM
something we have going for us is the committee will put astericks by the early losses if Jevon plays well all season. so that's good.

No. Colorado is pretty much already nullified because we didn't have Gip or Thomas, so, yeah.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: mocat on January 02, 2014, 10:24:15 AM
RPI is 85 right now
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: TheFormerKCCat on January 02, 2014, 10:38:43 AM
40-60 seems to fit what IMHO is a .500-ish Big 12 team that will be on the bubble.
I tend to agree with this, BUT with a caveat of the perceived and/or measurable strength of the Big 12. Forgive the LRPIIQ, but once OOC is done, is our conference RPI locked in too?

I think it would help the Big 12 perception-wise if one team (OSU?) dominated and then the other top-tier teams (KU and ISU) did well. Baylor has impressed me, so I might add them to the 'other top-tier' (but Scott Drew...). Texas has looked better than expected too, but I'm not sold on them yet.

If the Big 12 continues to be perceived as a decent (or even good?) conference, then our chances improve. 6 Big 12 teams in the tourney would be great for us IF we continue to improve. I don't see us as lower than 6th in the conference, but perhaps the 'Zags, GW, and Ole Miss are all fool's gold?
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: sys on January 02, 2014, 02:39:30 PM
5% chance of ncaas, which is up about 500% from my opening day assessment.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: yoga-like_abana on January 02, 2014, 06:19:21 PM
When we host the NIT and lose at home to Depaul or somebody like that it will have all come full circle
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Mr Bread on January 03, 2014, 04:11:26 PM
NCAAs
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: sunny_cat on January 03, 2014, 04:12:39 PM
NCAAs

That's what I voted!

 :bball:
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Mr Bread on January 03, 2014, 04:22:49 PM
I believe.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: 1863 on January 03, 2014, 04:35:47 PM
TCU- 2 wins
Tech- 2 wins
WVU- 1.5 wins
Texas- 1 win
OU- 1 win
Baylor- 1 win
ISU- 1 win
OSU- 0 wins
KU- 0 wins

This is going to sound really "well, duh, no crap" but whatever. Take care of business against the bottom 3 and beat the middle of the road at home. Maybe steal a game at home against the top 3 or on the road against the middle of the pack? I think this is pretty realistic. 9-10 wins. Key out of conference win against Zaga. Bad losses to start the season but without key players, the committee looks at more recent play. Get a win, maybe 2 in the B12 tourney and be a 7/8 seed...

I think it looks roughly like this give or take a loss or two. I think we are a bit more bubble, but on the inside rather than outside looking in. It would take some realllly good bubble teams to bump us where we stand right now (hovering within reach of top 25 and middle of the Big 12 pack), but I do think it could happen. Looking at Sagarins rankings for conference championships we should be middle of the pack, and Big 12 should get 6 teams in.

Key words there are 'should' and 'I think'. Who knows?
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Gooch on January 03, 2014, 04:47:14 PM
I will not go to the NIT game that we host.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: michigancat on January 03, 2014, 04:54:37 PM
I voted NIT. I think we have approximately a 25% chance of going to the NCAA's. I do not know what that percentage is based upon.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 03, 2014, 09:43:36 PM
I voted NIT. I think we have approximately a 25% chance of going to the NCAA's. I do not know what that percentage is based upon.

Perhaps nonsensical guestimates should be required to be expressed in fractions, while statistical conclusions could be expressed in percentages.

I think we're looking at a 7 seed this season.  Maybe an 11 or 10 if the NCAA is looking for a tight primetime matchip and decide to make us the lower seed.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: michigancat on January 03, 2014, 10:03:59 PM
I voted NIT. I think we have approximately a 25% chance of going to the NCAA's. I do not know what that percentage is based upon.

Perhaps nonsensical guestimates should be required to be expressed in fractions, while statistical conclusions could be expressed in percentages.

I think we're looking at a 7 seed this season.  Maybe an 11 or 10 if the NCAA is looking for a tight primetime matchip and decide to make us the lower seed.

kenpom has us 8-10. So 25% is probably a little low. Maybe 35%. What fraction are you guesstimating,  you loveable old coot?
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 03, 2014, 10:09:54 PM
I think we have a 55/64 chance of making the NCAA's. 

I also don't give a eff about kenpom because his modelling includes games when we played like mongoloid bumblefucks.
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Tobias on January 03, 2014, 10:10:54 PM
I also don't give a eff about kenpom because his modelling includes games when we played like mongoloid bumblefucks.

never quit us, fsd :D
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 03, 2014, 10:16:51 PM
I also don't give a eff about kenpom because his modelling includes games when we played like mongoloid bumblefucks.

never quit us, fsd :D

I hate it when shitty posters post @ me. 
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: michigancat on January 03, 2014, 10:19:54 PM
I think we have a 55/64 chance of making the NCAA's. 

I also don't give a eff about kenpom because his modelling includes games when we played like mongoloid bumblefucks.

He also includes games where we played spectacularly*.

*He includes all games
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: michigancat on January 03, 2014, 10:21:23 PM
55/64 is almost 90%! :surprised:
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 03, 2014, 10:21:57 PM
I think we have a 55/64 chance of making the NCAA's. 

I also don't give a eff about kenpom because his modelling includes games when we played like mongoloid bumblefucks.

He also includes games where we played spectacularly*.

*He includes all games

Shitty post
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 03, 2014, 10:23:45 PM
55/64 is almost 90%! :surprised:

Welp throw michigancat back in the shitty poster pile
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: chum1 on January 03, 2014, 10:24:27 PM
I think a .500 conference record gets us in based on what I call the "oscar factor."
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 03, 2014, 10:29:20 PM
I think a .500 conference record gets us in based on what I call the "oscar factor."

.500 conf record would mean we won as many conf games as we lost

- signed michigancat
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Trim on January 03, 2014, 11:23:07 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BdFiAocCMAAKeaK.jpg:large)
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: sunny_cat on January 03, 2014, 11:25:14 PM
Leti Romero :love:
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Spracne on January 03, 2014, 11:26:08 PM
Can't tell if these are both men's bball or both women's bball photos. :dunno:
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 03, 2014, 11:31:09 PM
Can't tell if these are both men's bball or both women's bball photos. :dunno:


 :flush:
Title: Re: POSTSEASON PLAY?!!????
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on January 04, 2014, 12:18:06 AM
I really am pretty surprised that the voting is 50/50 for nit vs ncaa. I figured it would be at least 2:1. I mean even fencefan thinks they are going nit.