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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: kso_FAN on February 23, 2013, 09:40:48 PM

Title: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kso_FAN on February 23, 2013, 09:40:48 PM
1st   Pace   PPP   eFG%   TO%   OR%   FTR
KSU   33   1.23   46.9%   21.5%   50.0%   37.5%
Opp   33   0.98   50.0%   18.4%   25.0%   104.8%

2nd   Pace   PPP   eFG%   TO%   OR%   FTR
KSU   30   1.34   70.5%   19.7%   22.2%   45.5%
Opp   30   1.21   50.0%   19.7%   56.3%   37.9%

Total   Pace   PPP   eFG%   TO%   OR%   FTR
KSU   64   1.27   56.5%   20.5%   41.4%   40.7%
Opp   64   1.09   50.0%   18.9%   38.9%   66.0%

Make a bunch of 3s. Get oboards. Despite being out FT rated, hit 91% on FTs to still win the FT line advantage.

All that adds up to another win against Texas.

And another weekend of first place Cats.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: meow meow on February 23, 2013, 09:43:55 PM
How do you come up with these thread titles so fast  :D
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: Boondock Poonhound on February 23, 2013, 09:49:38 PM
 :thumbsup:

 :emawkid:

 :alleyoop:

 :ksu:  >   :kstategrad:
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: Powercat Posse on February 23, 2013, 10:06:07 PM
Last 8 gms--

1.17 ppp
 79.1% FT
42.4% 3pt
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kso_FAN on February 23, 2013, 10:10:11 PM
Bottom of the box scores...

PTs in paint: 36-24 UT
PTs off TOs: 18-15 UT
2nd chance: 10-7 UT
Fast break: 14-9 UT

Hitting 50% from 3 and 91% on FTs makes up for a lot.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: catzacker on February 23, 2013, 11:49:10 PM
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: sys on February 23, 2013, 11:51:02 PM
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

kstate just didn't care in the 2nd half, 'zacker.  why should they have?
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: catzacker on February 24, 2013, 12:18:29 AM
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

kstate just didn't care in the 2nd half, 'zacker.  why should they have?

Texas' first half PPP of .98 is higher than their season PPP avg of .93

Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: sys on February 24, 2013, 12:39:23 AM
Texas' first half PPP of .98 is higher than their season PPP avg of .93

yeah, kstate's defense isn't very good.  we're raining threes instead.  enjoy.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kim carnes on February 24, 2013, 12:57:40 AM
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

kstate just didn't care in the 2nd half, 'zacker.  why should they have?

Texas' first half PPP of .98 is higher than their season PPP avg of .93

What is their PPP at home?
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kso_FAN on February 24, 2013, 08:22:02 AM
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

Should I interpret as a normal zacker post to stir the pot, or is this legitimately a "I don't like how we win even though we're winning a lot the same way" post?

:dunno:
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: steve dave on February 24, 2013, 08:24:59 AM
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kso_FAN on February 24, 2013, 08:27:28 AM
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.

Its really fun to see Shane or Rod or Tay or Angel or Will (EVEN WILL) chuck a three and be almost certain its going in.

Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: KITNfury on February 24, 2013, 09:09:22 AM
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.

Its really fun to see Shane or Rod or Tay or Angel or Will (EVEN WILL) chuck a three and be almost certain its going in.

Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.
I used to cringe when Shane shot the ball, now he' s a bonafied boss
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: ednksu on February 24, 2013, 09:19:29 AM
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

Should I interpret as a normal zacker post to stir the pot, or is this legitimately a "I don't like how we win even though we're winning a lot the same way" post?

:dunno:
Forgive me, does FTR factor into PPP in anyway?
Title: Re: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: michigancat on February 24, 2013, 09:38:54 AM
Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

well, considering he has never had a team shoot 40% for an entire season, he only had a single month of conference games at Illinois where his teams shot 40% from 3, and 6 of 7 returning players at Illinois are shooting better from three than they did last year, there's a pretty good chance that this is correct.

 http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc/teams/illinois
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: catzacker on February 24, 2013, 10:16:11 AM
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

Should I interpret as a normal zacker post to stir the pot, or is this legitimately a "I don't like how we win even though we're winning a lot the same way" post?

:dunno:

I am amazed it hasn't caught up to them by now, however games @baylor amd @osu might be the shoes that fall.  I have just not seen a ksu team shoot like that. 
Title: Re: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kim carnes on February 24, 2013, 10:38:50 AM
Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

well, considering he has never had a team shoot 40% for an entire season, he only had a single month of conference games at Illinois where his teams shot 40% from 3, and 6 of 7 returning players at Illinois are shooting better from three than they did last year, there's a pretty good chance that this is correct.

 http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc/teams/illinois

maybe kansas st is different than illinois?
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: michigancat on February 24, 2013, 10:40:04 AM
Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

well, considering he has never had a team shoot 40% for an entire season, he only had a single month of conference games at Illinois where his teams shot 40% from 3, and 6 of 7 returning players at Illinois are shooting better from three than they did last year, there's a pretty good chance that this is correct.

 http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc/teams/illinois

maybe kansas st is different than illinois?

Yeah, I guess it's possible that Illinois fans wouldn't let oscar have his team shoot 40% from three. I mean they did tell him who to recruit.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kso_FAN on February 24, 2013, 11:34:49 AM
Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

well, considering he has never had a team shoot 40% for an entire season, he only had a single month of conference games at Illinois where his teams shot 40% from 3, and 6 of 7 returning players at Illinois are shooting better from three than they did last year, there's a pretty good chance that this is correct.

 http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc/teams/illinois


I will agree with you that it is a statistical anomaly for a oscar team in the long run, so its unreasonable to expect a 40% team next year, etc.

But its not an anomaly for this particular season, and while we could have a low 30% game in our last 4, its reasonable to expect us to shoot in the upper 30s (at least) the rest of this season.

8 of 14 league games we've shot 40% or better. 10 of 14 we've hit at least 2/3. And we've actually shot better on the road (.413) than at home (.389), so we should be fine @BU or @OSU.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: michigancat on February 24, 2013, 11:59:46 AM
Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

well, considering he has never had a team shoot 40% for an entire season, he only had a single month of conference games at Illinois where his teams shot 40% from 3, and 6 of 7 returning players at Illinois are shooting better from three than they did last year, there's a pretty good chance that this is correct.

 http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc/teams/illinois


I will agree with you that it is a statistical anomaly for a oscar team in the long run, so its unreasonable to expect a 40% team next year, etc.

But its not an anomaly for this particular season, and while we could have a low 30% game in our last 4, its reasonable to expect us to shoot in the upper 30s (at least) the rest of this season.

8 of 14 league games we've shot 40% or better. 10 of 14 we've hit at least 2/3. And we've actually shot better on the road (.413) than at home (.389), so we should be fine @BU or @OSU.

shooting 30% or worse in both of those individual games wouldn't really be a statistical anomaly either.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: SwiftCat on February 24, 2013, 12:08:41 PM

shooting 30% or worse in both of those individual games wouldn't really be a statistical anomaly either.

Why not?
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kso_FAN on February 24, 2013, 12:22:15 PM
shooting 30% or worse in both of those individual games wouldn't really be a statistical anomaly either.

Maybe not an anomaly, but it would still be very unexpected.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: sys on February 24, 2013, 12:42:47 PM
shooting 30% or worse in both of those individual games wouldn't really be a statistical anomaly either.

Maybe not an anomaly, but it would still be very unexpected.

no it wouldn't.  3% has high variance.  neither shooting 20% nor 60% would be unexpected.
Title: Re: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kso_FAN on February 24, 2013, 12:48:25 PM
shooting 30% or worse in both of those individual games wouldn't really be a statistical anomaly either.

Maybe not an anomaly, but it would still be very unexpected.

no it wouldn't.  3% has high variance.  neither shooting 20% nor 60% would be unexpected.

2 games at/under 30% when you've had 1 at 30% in league games is unexpected to me.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: ChiComCat on February 24, 2013, 12:59:51 PM
I don't think anybody is expecting us to shoot 20% or 60%.  Although entirely possible, shooting one of those would absolutely be unexpected.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: sys on February 24, 2013, 01:08:10 PM
I don't think anybody is expecting us to shoot 20% or 60%.  Although entirely possible, shooting one of those would absolutely be unexpected.

of course it would be unexpected.  the question is, are you surprised when things that are entirely possible occur?
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: tuck34 on February 24, 2013, 04:34:16 PM
I don't think anybody is expecting us to shoot 20% or 60%.  Although entirely possible, shooting one of those would absolutely be unexpected.

of course it would be unexpected.  the question is, are you surprised when things that are entirely possible occur?

you're not surprised when something unexpected happens?
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on February 24, 2013, 04:40:54 PM
Sys and MichiCat seem to take ridiculous/ illogical positions when they're grumpy and then try and support those positions with statistical fallacy or hyperbole.  It makes for incredibly boring bbsing.  Please stop.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: sys on February 24, 2013, 04:42:22 PM
you're not surprised when something unexpected happens?

i'm not expecting my neighbor to knock on my door today, but if he does, it would not surprise me.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: michigancat on February 24, 2013, 05:22:02 PM
our std. deviation of shooting percentage each game is 6.8%. (I didn't weight by number of attempts, so it isn't perfect)

So 30% in one or both of those games should absolutely not be unexpected. Of course, neither would 50%.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: GoodForAnother on February 24, 2013, 05:39:43 PM
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.

it's so weird and exciting to watch a ksu team run a legitimately good offense.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kougar24 on February 24, 2013, 05:47:06 PM
you're not surprised when something unexpected happens?

i'm not expecting my neighbor to knock on my door today, but if he does, it would not surprise me.

Yes, yes it would.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: michigancat on February 24, 2013, 05:48:21 PM
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.

it's so weird and exciting to watch a ksu team run a legitimately good offense.

Also weird to see below average defense
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: GoodForAnother on February 24, 2013, 07:17:39 PM
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.

it's so weird and exciting to watch a ksu team run a legitimately good offense.

Also weird to see below average defense

wgaf
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: sys on February 24, 2013, 09:05:33 PM
you're not surprised when something unexpected happens?

i'm not expecting my neighbor to knock on my door today, but if he does, it would not surprise me.

Yes, yes it would.

my neighbor did come by unexpectedly this afternoon, didn't knock, because i was out in the yard.  so close to mushing your fat face.  if only i'd been inside.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: sys on February 24, 2013, 09:06:14 PM
two different neighbors, actually.  what a surprise.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kim carnes on February 24, 2013, 09:31:01 PM
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.

it's so weird and exciting to watch a ksu team run a legitimately good offense.

Also weird to see below average defense

There is nothing in the world more overrated than franks defense.
Title: Re: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: mocat on February 24, 2013, 09:40:52 PM
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.

it's so weird and exciting to watch a ksu team run a legitimately good offense.

Also weird to see below average defense

There is nothing in the world more overrated than franks defense.

Well each year under frank it was better statistically than this year's D
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on February 24, 2013, 09:51:56 PM
our std. deviation of shooting percentage each game is 6.8%. (I didn't weight by number of attempts, so it isn't perfect)

So 30% in one or both of those games should absolutely not be unexpected. Of course, neither would 50%.

Case in point.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kougar24 on February 24, 2013, 10:00:02 PM
two different neighbors, actually.  what a surprise.

Sounds to me like you have annoying neighbors.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: SleepFighter on February 24, 2013, 10:01:22 PM
A neighbor knocked on my door today.  And gave me cupcakes!!!
 :excited:
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on February 24, 2013, 10:11:02 PM
My neighbor offered to pay for half of the fence, then never did.  A different neighbor brought me cookoies when we moved in though.

Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: ksupamplemousse on February 24, 2013, 10:14:58 PM
The 2nd page of this thread has been totally  :zzz:
Title: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: puniraptor on February 24, 2013, 10:16:40 PM
A dude knocked on my door to try to let him clean my carpets for free so he gets points towards a vacation. Glad he wasn't my neighbor.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: sys on February 24, 2013, 10:22:12 PM
Sounds to me like you have annoying neighbors.

they're very nice people, but i'm pretty antisocial, so they annoy me.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: sys on February 25, 2013, 07:54:49 PM
well, well, well.


http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=330562306
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: GoodForAnother on February 25, 2013, 08:01:30 PM
EIGHTEEN POINT EIGHT PER CENT  :sdeek:
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: catzacker on February 25, 2013, 08:03:34 PM
well, well, well.


http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=330562306

Those stats are completely subjective and inherently biased.  rough ridin' stat nerds. 
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kougar24 on February 25, 2013, 08:08:22 PM
well, well, well.


http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=330562306

(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.tumblr.com%2Ftumblr_m7ldnuKPPa1qmoxb9.gif&hash=113cca4f1aed6ade4722e8a65a9f25f86213ed31)
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: CHONGS on February 25, 2013, 08:08:54 PM
statistics are hard so most people discount them (because they don't understand them).  its understandable and human nature.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: Powercat Posse on February 25, 2013, 08:12:05 PM
When u shoot 3-16 from 3pt, its nice to counter that wth 63.4% from 2pt (26-41).  Still adds up to 53.5 eFG
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: CHONGS on February 25, 2013, 08:33:53 PM
FYI  if we assume it follows a normal distribution:

mean = 36%
std dev =  9.3%

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: kso_FAN on February 25, 2013, 08:38:07 PM
I'm glad it came against Tech. Hopefully we don't have another one in us, but we could.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on February 25, 2013, 08:50:38 PM
FYI  if we assume it follows a normal distribution:

mean = 36%
std dev =  9.3%

Is this post the ttech game?  Michi said sigma was 6.8%.

Quite the outlier


Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: CHONGS on February 25, 2013, 08:51:17 PM
post texas game, plus my std dev is for the model not the data (and michi said his was estimated).


ps the data (post UT game) is
mean:  36%
std dev:  9.4%
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on February 25, 2013, 08:55:24 PM
post texas game, plus my std dev is for the model not the data (and michi said his was estimated).

He estimated 6.8%

:confused:
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: CHONGS on February 25, 2013, 09:05:09 PM
post texas game, plus my std dev is for the model not the data (and michi said his was estimated).

He estimated 6.8%

:confused:
I dunno looks like he was wrong (probably didn't normalize quite correctly, should be divided by (n-1)).
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: sys on February 25, 2013, 09:34:32 PM
i didn't calculate or estimate anything, and i still got it completely right.  teamlazy&smart wins again.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: catzacker on February 25, 2013, 09:40:53 PM
i didn't calculate or estimate anything, and i still got it completely right.  teamlazy&smart wins again.

Whatever.  It's like my Silver Lake coach used to say "Stats are for losers that never played the game".
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: michigancat on February 26, 2013, 10:49:04 AM
post texas game, plus my std dev is for the model not the data (and michi said his was estimated).

He estimated 6.8%

:confused:
I dunno looks like he was wrong (probably didn't normalize quite correctly, should be divided by (n-1)).

I just took excel and made the end percentage of every game a data point. then used the excel functions. I'm not a pro, but the numbers seemed reasonable. And yes the 18.8% performance would skew the Std. Dev.
Title: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
Post by: michigancat on February 26, 2013, 10:49:24 AM
post texas game, plus my std dev is for the model not the data (and michi said his was estimated).

He estimated 6.8%

:confused:
I dunno looks like he was wrong (probably didn't normalize quite correctly, should be divided by (n-1)).

I just took excel and made the end percentage of every game a data point. then used the excel functions. I'm not a pro, but the numbers seemed reasonable. And yes the 18.8% performance would skew the Std. Dev.

still, it feels good to be right.