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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on October 29, 2012, 11:24:51 AM

Title: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2012, 11:24:51 AM
I posted this before, but I think it should be its own thread:



Just pick your teams and get a score! This uses stats up through Oct 27th. 
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: 8manpick on October 29, 2012, 11:36:53 AM
Quote from: Stupid crappy ORCHID that used to be great
Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 30

:dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious:
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: SwiftCat on October 29, 2012, 11:39:58 AM
Alabama, Notre Dame, Oregon

 :dubious: :dubious: :dubious:
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: Stevesie60 on October 29, 2012, 11:46:53 AM
Quote from: Stupid crappy ORCHID that used to be great
Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 30

:dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious:

:runaway:
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2012, 11:51:02 AM
Quote from: Stupid crappy ORCHID that used to be great
Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 30

:dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious:

:runaway:
The game is at home IS IT NOT? (user error)
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: 8manpick on October 29, 2012, 11:59:57 AM
Touché.  Still, I think the chances of a tie in Stillwater are slim.  So you set home and away difference to be +3 points for home team and -3 for away?
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: Stevesie60 on October 29, 2012, 12:09:25 PM
Quote from: Stupid crappy ORCHID that used to be great
Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 30

:dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious:

:runaway:
The game is at home IS IT NOT? (user error)

I'm still not convinced. Does this take into account that OSU hasn't played too tough of schedule yet? I mean, they lost to Texas (kind of). And Texas is pretty awful.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2012, 12:11:49 PM
Touché.  Still, I think the chances of a tie in Stillwater are slim.  So you set home and away difference to be +3 points for home team and -3 for away?
I am also a bit puzzled by the predicted score, but I suspect it has to do with the high number of plays we allows on defense and the high efficiency OSU has on offense.  It looks like the close score is purely a function of them running so many more plays than us.  I think we will control the tempo a bit better personally, but I can't tweak the predictions just for K-State and the past scores have been pretty good.

I account for home field in a very rudimentary way (I don't have enough data to really correlate a home field advantage for each team):  visitor -1 home team +2.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2012, 12:16:57 PM
Quote from: Stupid crappy ORCHID that used to be great
Kansas State: 30
Oklahoma State: 30

:dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious: :dubious:

:runaway:
The game is at home IS IT NOT? (user error)

I'm still not convinced. Does this take into account that OSU hasn't played too tough of schedule yet? I mean, they lost to Texas (kind of). And Texas is pretty awful.
yes it takes their schedule into account.  but texas isn't as awful in ORCHID as you think.  OSU has lost two games yes, but they appear to be a very schizophrenic team.  Plus there is only so much I can do to correct for the absolute pounding they have put to their cupcakes if I apply the same standards to every team.


2    KansasSt.    0.71    0.26

19    OklahomaSt.    0.53    0.26

33    Texas    0.57    0.41

Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: Stevesie60 on October 29, 2012, 12:30:57 PM
I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2012, 12:32:35 PM
I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.
the number of offensive plays they would run is the difference
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: Stevesie60 on October 29, 2012, 12:33:30 PM
I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.
the number of offensive plays they would run is the difference


I hate the ORCHID.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: j-dub on October 29, 2012, 12:50:25 PM
I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.
the number of offensive plays they would run is the difference


I hate the ORCHID.

yeah. seems like a real dumbass
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2012, 12:55:07 PM
I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.
btw, it doesn't predict a tie on a neutral site, it has winning by 3.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: _33 on October 29, 2012, 01:00:46 PM
Hope snyds pins the ORCHID up on the bulletin board.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: MixBerryCrunch on October 29, 2012, 01:11:34 PM
Why do you hate the Cats, Chingon?  :dunno:
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2012, 01:11:59 PM
Hope snyds pins the ORCHID up on the bulletin board.
maybe that's my plan (!?)
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: WillieWatanabe on October 29, 2012, 10:03:44 PM
I guess I'm confused why our defense is the same, our offense is .18 better, but we'd tie on a neutral site.
the number of offensive plays they would run is the difference


I hate the ORCHID.

i enjoyed this exchange.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: CHONGS on October 29, 2012, 10:11:13 PM
Touché.  Still, I think the chances of a tie in Stillwater are slim.  So you set home and away difference to be +3 points for home team and -3 for away?
I am also a bit puzzled by the predicted score, but I suspect it has to do with the high number of plays we allows on defense and the high efficiency OSU has on offense.  It looks like the close score is purely a function of them running so many more plays than us.  I think we will control the tempo a bit better personally, but I can't tweak the predictions just for K-State and the past scores have been pretty good.

I account for home field in a very rudimentary way (I don't have enough data to really correlate a home field advantage for each team):  visitor -1 home team +2.
I found a problem with my approach.  Unlike basketball I don't think tempos should have a multiplying effect.  This was giving teams with very high offensive tempos a lot more plays against us then they should (because we allow teams on average more plays than the nat'l average).  I have fixed it and the predictions seem more reasonable to me now (for the wonks, I not using a geometric mean anymore for pace).
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: WildcatPower on October 29, 2012, 10:13:28 PM
I think K-State is going to be very fired up because they were so close knocking off Oklahoma State last year. They'll want some revenge because had they beat Oklahoma State, K-State could had won the conference last year.

If there is a statement game, this is it.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: kim carnes on October 29, 2012, 10:15:05 PM
I think K-State is going to be very fired up because they were so close knocking off Oklahoma State last year. They'll want some revenge because had they beat Oklahoma State, K-State could had won the conference last year.

If there is a statement game, this is it.

hmm.... great insight.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 29, 2012, 10:18:13 PM
I think K-State is going to be very fired up because they were so close knocking off Oklahoma State last year. They'll want some revenge because had they beat Oklahoma State, K-State could had won the conference last year.

If there is a statement game, this is it.

Does ORCHID account for this?
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: GoodForAnother on October 29, 2012, 10:30:25 PM
ORCHID is making a comeback!

Kansas State: 32
Oklahoma State: 23
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: Winters on October 29, 2012, 10:31:26 PM
I think K-State is going to be very fired up because they were so close knocking off Oklahoma State last year. They'll want some revenge because had they beat Oklahoma State, K-State could had won the conference last year.

If there is a statement game, this is it.

hmm.... great insight.
We should be greatful we don't have to pay for that kind of stuff. We are so lucky.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: SwiftCat on October 29, 2012, 11:03:24 PM
Alabama, Notre Dame, Oregon

 :dubious: :dubious: :dubious:

With fixed tempo

 :thumbs: :thumbs: :thumbs:
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: sunflowersue on October 30, 2012, 02:14:30 PM
I posted this before, but I think it should be its own thread:



Just pick your teams and get a score! This uses stats up through Oct 27th.


Pardon me for sounding dense, but I'm just not figuiring how to use this tool.  I've downloaded Wolfram because your post showed a big blank box for the score until I did, and I've located information about an program for ORCHID financial scores.  Neither seem to have something to specifically link to for sports scores.  What am I missing to download and experiment with this thing?

TIA for your help.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: CHONGS on October 30, 2012, 02:35:24 PM
you will need to download the CDF Player http://www.wolfram.com/cdf-player/ to view the computable document.  It's free, but it is a large download.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: sunflowersue on October 30, 2012, 03:34:43 PM
you will need to download the CDF Player http://www.wolfram.com/cdf-player/ to view the computable document.  It's free, but it is a large download.

I did.  It is at that point that I can't find what to click on for the score predicting specific teams and games. I've come up with a couple of sports related things browsing the topics or searching "sports."  I figure I must be missing something obvious.

It definitely was a huge download! I was surprised at the size of the file.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: CHONGS on October 30, 2012, 03:49:49 PM
you will need to download the CDF Player http://www.wolfram.com/cdf-player/ to view the computable document.  It's free, but it is a large download.

I did.  It is at that point that I can't find what to click on for the score predicting specific teams and games. I've come up with a couple of sports related things browsing the topics or searching "sports."  I figure I must be missing something obvious.

It definitely was a huge download! I was surprised at the size of the file.

There is nothing else to download.  You might need to make sure the plug-in is enabled on your system.  You should just be able to change teams in the first post of this thread.
Title: Re: Predict a score using ORCHID
Post by: sunflowersue on October 30, 2012, 03:54:11 PM
you will need to download the CDF Player http://www.wolfram.com/cdf-player/ to view the computable document.  It's free, but it is a large download.

I did.  It is at that point that I can't find what to click on for the score predicting specific teams and games. I've come up with a couple of sports related things browsing the topics or searching "sports."  I figure I must be missing something obvious.

It definitely was a huge download! I was surprised at the size of the file.

There is nothing else to download.  You might need to make sure the plug-in is enabled on your system.  You should just be able to change teams in the first post of this thread.

Ding!  NOW I get it.  I didn't realize the first post of the thread was where I entered the teams!  Thanks so much!