goemaw.com

TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: kso_FAN on January 07, 2012, 07:39:39 PM

Title: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: kso_FAN on January 07, 2012, 07:39:39 PM
1st   Pace   PPP   eFG%   TO%   OR%   FTR
KSU   33   1.33   63.8%   18.1%   38.5%   34.5%
Opp   33   0.75   29.5%   27.1%   31.3%   72.7%

2nd   Pace   PPP   eFG%   TO%   OR%   FTR
KSU   33   0.93   41.1%   24.1%   44.4%   39.3%
Opp   33   1.02   48.1%   15.0%   11.8%   33.3%

Total   Pace   PPP   eFG%   TO%   OR%   FTR
KSU   67   1.12   52.6%   20.9%   41.9%   36.8%
Opp   67   0.88   39.8%   20.9%   21.2%   51.0%

Really nice win. The offense in the first half was really good, they couldn't defend with man or zone. Defense was equally impressive, it was fun watching Frank's funnel to the basket to get swatted defense work to perfection against MU's little guards.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: sys on January 07, 2012, 07:42:32 PM
would have been nice to foul less.  they did well with opp ftr against howard and ku.  if they can limit that (compared to previous years) while maintaining the aggression, they can really be good.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: kso_FAN on January 07, 2012, 08:53:14 PM
Also, Frank's 6th win over a Top 10 team.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: _33 on January 07, 2012, 08:58:11 PM
Seemed like MU gave up the high post and middle of the lane really easily. Like, we shot there all day.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: sys on January 08, 2012, 01:16:08 AM
well.  mr. pomeroy's computer liked today's win.  16 overall and 9th defensively.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: Panjandrum on January 08, 2012, 01:35:12 AM
Also, Frank's 6th win over a Top 10 team.

3rd win over a team that came into conference play undefeated.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: kso_FAN on January 08, 2012, 12:08:47 PM
would have been nice to foul less.  they did well with opp ftr against howard and ku.  if they can limit that (compared to previous years) while maintaining the aggression, they can really be good.

It would be nice to foul less, but not too big of a deal to me. The benefits of playing that style of defense (eFG% and TO% for MU) is probably going to put your into situations where you foul. Plus its a sign we were playing agressive, unlike our soft performance in Lawrence. Granted, it could get us in trouble on the road.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: pissclams on January 08, 2012, 12:11:13 PM
well.  mr. pomeroy's computer liked today's win.  16 overall and 9th defensively.

wow
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: Stevesie60 on January 08, 2012, 02:10:05 PM
Where does kenpom have our chances of beating Baylor?
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: sys on January 08, 2012, 02:12:38 PM
Where does kenpom have our chances of beating Baylor?

61%.  i think it was like 53% or so prior to the mu game.  something like that.  maybe 47%.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: Stevesie60 on January 08, 2012, 02:14:05 PM
Where does kenpom have our chances of beating Baylor?

61%.  i think it was like 53% or so prior to the mu game.  something like that.  maybe 47%.

 :emawkid:
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on January 08, 2012, 02:26:34 PM
Where does kenpom have our chances of beating Baylor?

61%.  i think it was like 53% or so prior to the mu game.  something like that.  maybe 47%.

 :emawkid:

actually has us favored in the next nine games. jesus. could you even imagine?
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: Cire on January 08, 2012, 02:30:25 PM
Buckle up boys
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: sys on January 08, 2012, 02:59:07 PM
actually has us favored in the next nine games. jesus. could you even imagine?

hadn't really looked at that.  after baylor the schedule gets really soft till ku again.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: 06wildcat on January 08, 2012, 06:54:09 PM
actually has us favored in the next nine games. jesus. could you even imagine?

hadn't really looked at that.  after baylor the schedule gets really soft till ku again.

Oh man Cats 10-1 with the Hawks coming into the OOD   :love:
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: mcmwcat on January 09, 2012, 09:30:39 AM
would have been nice to foul less.  they did well with opp ftr against howard and ku.  if they can limit that (compared to previous years) while maintaining the aggression, they can really be good.

without the FTR the first half would have been as close to a perfect defensive performance as i have seen.  Samuels and Henriquez were disciplined maintaining help relationship resulting in dominating team performance in the points-in-the-paint category.     i guess a positive from the poor FTR is that we might not be able to foul them more on the road than we did at home.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: CNS on January 09, 2012, 09:39:53 AM
actually has us favored in the next nine games. jesus. could you even imagine?

hadn't really looked at that.  after baylor the schedule gets really soft till ku again.

Oh man Cats 10-1 with the Hawks coming into the OOD   :love:

Oh my....what are the predictions on lil bro record wise?  Conf #1  matchup?
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on January 09, 2012, 09:44:03 AM
actually has us favored in the next nine games. jesus. could you even imagine?

hadn't really looked at that.  after baylor the schedule gets really soft till ku again.

Oh man Cats 10-1 with the Hawks coming into the OOD   :love:

Oh my....what are the predictions on lil bro record wise?  Conf #1  matchup?

Hopefully they would also be 10-1. It would feel like the game was for all the marbles if that were the case.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: mocat on January 09, 2012, 10:40:11 AM
Oh my....what are the predictions on lil bro record wise?  Conf #1  matchup?

Quote
Projected record:   25-6   15-3
Chance of unbeaten record:       1.9%

Predicted to win every game except

Sat Feb 4      9   Missouri   L, 74-73   71   47%   Away
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: cas4ksu on January 09, 2012, 11:21:28 AM
Wow. Let's destroy Baylor.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: kso_FAN on January 09, 2012, 11:23:23 AM
Speaking of advanced stats, kenpom's explanation of Wisconsin at #2 in his system is entertaining.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: kitten_mittons on January 09, 2012, 11:52:14 AM
Sat Feb 4      9   Missouri   L, 74-73   71   47%   Away
Do you have any idea how angered up I would be if we lose to MU by 1 point?
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: mcmwcat on January 09, 2012, 12:09:36 PM
Speaking of advanced stats, kenpom's explanation of Wisconsin at #2 in his system is entertaining.

Quote
If you are going to trash the entire system based on the biggest outlier over the last six years, I suspect you had no desire to use the system in the first place. Either that, or your team is ranked lower than you think it should be.

get'em kenneth

Quote
Q. When are you going to fix this?

First off, I’m not sure it can be fixed. I mean, sure I can fix it so Wisconsin is ranked more reasonably. I could add some code to my algorithm like this…

if Wisconsin:
   do something to fix Wisconsin
else:
   do normal calculations

heh
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: CNS on January 09, 2012, 12:45:19 PM
Love his defense in using an If/Then statement.

Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: 8manpick on January 09, 2012, 12:53:04 PM
Part of me can't wait until Wiscy goes to the final four, letting KenPem clownsuit everyone.  The other part of me remembers my tears on March 19, 2011.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: mocat on January 09, 2012, 01:07:17 PM
Sat Feb 4      9   Missouri   L, 74-73   71   47%   Away
Do you have any idea how angered up I would be if we lose to MU by 1 point?

That's the prediction for KU @ MU.

Speaking of advanced stats, kenpom's explanation of Wisconsin at #2 in his system is entertaining.

I enjoyed most of it, but he never addressed a possible issue that somehow Big 10 teams are more heavily favored than they should be in his system (4 teams in the top 8)
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: kougar24 on January 09, 2012, 01:15:32 PM
Speaking of advanced stats, kenpom's explanation of Wisconsin at #2 in his system is entertaining.

Quote
If you are going to trash the entire system based on the biggest outlier over the last six years, I suspect you had no desire to use the system in the first place. Either that, or your team is ranked lower than you think it should be.

get'em kenneth

Quote
Q. When are you going to fix this?

First off, I’m not sure it can be fixed. I mean, sure I can fix it so Wisconsin is ranked more reasonably. I could add some code to my algorithm like this…

if Wisconsin:
   do something to fix Wisconsin
else:
   do normal calculations

heh

That sounds like something college football fans wanted the BCS to do to K-State since we "shouldn't have won" most of our games. Granted, Wisky is a different case since they aren't winning.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: MakeItRain on January 09, 2012, 04:27:07 PM
Speaking of advanced stats, kenpom's explanation of Wisconsin at #2 in his system is entertaining.

Quote
If you are going to trash the entire system based on the biggest outlier over the last six years, I suspect you had no desire to use the system in the first place. Either that, or your team is ranked lower than you think it should be.

get'em kenneth

Quote
Q. When are you going to fix this?

First off, I’m not sure it can be fixed. I mean, sure I can fix it so Wisconsin is ranked more reasonably. I could add some code to my algorithm like this…

if Wisconsin:
   do something to fix Wisconsin
else:
   do normal calculations

heh

Ken Pomeroy :flush:
This is a huge win for me.  His pompous ass response is even more win for me.  His outlier isn't like a team with 4 early losses in the top 20, Wisconsin being where they are is a giant flaw in his rankings.  I dont have a problem with him using statistical formulas to determine how good a team is and he wouldnt have an earthly clue as to what to do with game tape.  My problem is his attitude.  I'll continue to get my advanced stats from the free and infinitely superior statsheet, they have individual websites and extensive historical info for every team, while simps continue to eat the BS he feeds.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: sys on January 09, 2012, 05:09:20 PM
I enjoyed most of it, but he never addressed a possible issue that somehow Big 10 teams are more heavily favored than they should be in his system (4 teams in the top 8)

nor should he.  they aren't related.  wisconsin is highly rated because they beat the fuckshit out of bad teams,  osu is highly rated because they beat the fuckshit out of bad teams, and also out of nw and duke and only lost to good teams on the road, msu and indiana are highly rated because they've beaten a lot of good teams and only lost a small number of games to other good teams.  there is little reason to think that any of the teams other than wisconsin are misrated.


the flaw in pomeroy's ratings is that mov* between two teams of very dissimilar quality is not as useful as a predictor as mov between teams of similar quality.


* - doesn't actually use mov, i know.  don't care.
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: mcmwcat on January 09, 2012, 06:23:03 PM
i like looking at kenpoms conference only #s
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on January 09, 2012, 06:39:07 PM
i like looking at kenpoms conference only #s

This.  It's Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) to look at KenPom early on in conf play for obvious reasons.

Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: mocat on January 09, 2012, 08:47:28 PM
I enjoyed most of it, but he never addressed a possible issue that somehow Big 10 teams are more heavily favored than they should be in his system (4 teams in the top 8)

nor should he.  they aren't related.  wisconsin is highly rated because they beat the fuckshit out of bad teams,  osu is highly rated because they beat the fuckshit out of bad teams, and also out of nw and duke and only lost to good teams on the road, msu and indiana are highly rated because they've beaten a lot of good teams and only lost a small number of games to other good teams.  there is little reason to think that any of the teams other than wisconsin are misrated.


OK, i agree with what you're saying, but you know who else beat the fuckshit out of a combination of bad teams and some good teams, with no bad losses? Missouri, Baylor, Georgetown, Alabama, or even Marquette, etc. And they are all rated below those 4 Big 10 teams. I'm just curious IF there is some reason hidden somewhere in his formulas for the excessively heavy Big 10 presence at the top.  :dunno:
Title: Re: Advanced stats vs Mizzou
Post by: BEFR on January 09, 2012, 09:34:54 PM
robert scored some great seats... must be in charge of the stationary bicycles  :cheers:

(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi131.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fp298%2Fseniorcampteacher%2Fwr.jpg&hash=bf45daac0c43c10bd7f9f2d434aa41184279edac)