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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: Coley on November 27, 2011, 06:09:25 PM

Title: BCS Odds
Post by: Coley on November 27, 2011, 06:09:25 PM
So where do we land in the BCS this week? I say we stay at 11.  :dunno:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: TheHamburglar on November 27, 2011, 06:39:17 PM
70% we stay at 11
30% we drop to 12

We had a .0256 lead on South Carolina and they made up .0105 in the Coaches/Harris poll.  On top of that they beat a decent opponent in Clemson to help them in the computers.  30%-40% shot they jump us.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 07:20:23 PM
What if Michigan can't get to 14 even if Georgia loses?  I can see Georgia not falling at all, even with a loss.  :surprised:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Coley on November 27, 2011, 07:21:23 PM
Stayed at number #11. .002 points ahead of South Carolina.  :lynchmob:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: EMAW SP8 on November 27, 2011, 07:22:06 PM
michigan drops to 16!!!!

Cats still in the running for the sugar!! (hoping that georgia keeps it close against LSU this weekend)
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: wetwillie on November 27, 2011, 07:23:12 PM
3 top 25 wins :gocho:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: pike on November 27, 2011, 07:26:54 PM
I don't really care about a BCS game, but if Michigan somehow gets one over us it would be bull crap. Glad we have Shulzy and Currie tho.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 07:28:54 PM
I don't really care about a BCS game, but if Michigan somehow gets one over us it would be bull crap. Glad we have Shulzy and Currie tho.

Ummm... they will definitely get a BCS bid over us if they get into the top 14 of the BCS standings.  That isn't even in question.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: EllToPay on November 27, 2011, 07:29:35 PM
I don't really care about a BCS game, but if Michigan somehow gets one over us it would be bull crap. Glad we have Shulzy and Currie tho.

Ummm... they will definitely get a BCS bid over us if they get into the top 14 of the BCS standings.  That isn't even in question.

they don't have anymore games.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: pike on November 27, 2011, 07:30:55 PM
I don't really care about a BCS game, but if Michigan somehow gets one over us it would be bull crap. Glad we have Shulzy and Currie tho.

Ummm... they will definitely get a BCS bid over us if they get into the top 14 of the BCS standings.  That isn't even in question.

And it would be absolute bull crap. Further proving the insolvency of the BCS.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 07:31:08 PM
I don't really care about a BCS game, but if Michigan somehow gets one over us it would be bull crap. Glad we have Shulzy and Currie tho.

Ummm... they will definitely get a BCS bid over us if they get into the top 14 of the BCS standings.  That isn't even in question.

they don't have anymore games.

Yeah, but Mich St plays Wisconsin, and Georgia plays LSU, so there is a good chance they could get to #14 next week.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Pendergast on November 27, 2011, 07:32:50 PM
Would be shocked to see Georgia fall below Michigan.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: K-S-U-Wildcats! on November 27, 2011, 07:42:38 PM
I don't really care about a BCS game, but if Michigan somehow gets one over us it would be bull crap. Glad we have Shulzy and Currie tho.

Ummm... they will definitely get a BCS bid over us if they get into the top 14 of the BCS standings.  That isn't even in question.

they don't have anymore games.

Yeah, but Mich St plays Wisconsin, and Georgia plays LSU, so there is a good chance they could get to #14 next week.

This. Michigan will be 14 next Sunday night.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: ednksu on November 27, 2011, 07:49:32 PM
talking heads saying Mich/K-State v. Houston in Sugar.


Also Big East is trash.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 07:50:25 PM
If Georgia stays close to LSU, they could stay ahead of Michigan, and Michigan will only move up to #15 next week ahead of whoever loses the Big 10 championship.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: K-S-U-Wildcats! on November 27, 2011, 07:57:47 PM
If Georgia stays close to LSU, they could stay ahead of Michigan, and Michigan will only move up to #15 next week ahead of whoever loses the Big 10 championship.

Could happen, but very doubtful. Still, Iguess this gives us another upset to hope for: Southern Miss over Hoston or Georgia over LSU!
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: The3ears on November 27, 2011, 07:58:56 PM
Our best chance is:
  1. OSU beat OU,  Somehow got to the top two (Either GA beat LSU, or enough voters does not want to the rematch)  and goes to the NCG.
  2. Feista pick KSU due to the ties with big12.

Michigan will be picked over us if it get into the top 14.  This will help prevent that:
  1. LSU lose to GA
  2. Clemson beat VT  (so Clemson will like to jump over Michigan)
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 08:00:26 PM
If Georgia stays close to LSU, they could stay ahead of Michigan, and Michigan will only move up to #15 next week ahead of whoever loses the Big 10 championship.

Could happen, but very doubtful. Still, Iguess this gives us another upset to hope for: Southern Miss over Hoston or Georgia over LSU!

No, if Georgia beats LSU then they get Sugar Bowl bid.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 08:01:45 PM
Our best chance is:
  1. OSU beat OU,  Somehow got to the top two (Either GA beat LSU, or enough voters does not want to the rematch)  and goes to the NCG.
  2. Feista pick KSU due to the ties with big12.

Michigan will be picked over us if it get into the top 14.  This will help prevent that:
  1. LSU lose to GA
  2. Clemson beat VT  (so Clemson will like to jump over Michigan)


This isn't even possible.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: The3ears on November 27, 2011, 08:05:59 PM
If Georgia stays close to LSU, they could stay ahead of Michigan, and Michigan will only move up to #15 next week ahead of whoever loses the Big 10 championship.

Could happen, but very doubtful. Still, Iguess this gives us another upset to hope for: Southern Miss over Hoston or Georgia over LSU!

No, if Georgia beats LSU then they get Sugar Bowl bid.

Yes.  This means LSU miss the BCS.   OSU goes to the NCG.
However,  we should hope VT win, as VT will most likely still stay ahead of us with a lose.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 08:07:01 PM
If Georgia stays close to LSU, they could stay ahead of Michigan, and Michigan will only move up to #15 next week ahead of whoever loses the Big 10 championship.

Could happen, but very doubtful. Still, Iguess this gives us another upset to hope for: Southern Miss over Hoston or Georgia over LSU!

No, if Georgia beats LSU then they get Sugar Bowl bid.

Yes.  This means LSU miss the BCS.   OSU goes to the NCG.
However,  we should hope VT win, as VT will most likely still stay ahead of us with a lose.

LSU is going to the NC no matter what happens next week, dude.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: fatty fat fat on November 27, 2011, 08:43:35 PM
go sooners. they can't take a big 12 away from us
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: K-S-U-Wildcats! on November 27, 2011, 08:52:37 PM
If Georgia stays close to LSU, they could stay ahead of Michigan, and Michigan will only move up to #15 next week ahead of whoever loses the Big 10 championship.

Could happen, but very doubtful. Still, Iguess this gives us another upset to hope for: Southern Miss over Hoston or Georgia over LSU!

No, if Georgia beats LSU then they get Sugar Bowl bid.

Yes.  This means LSU miss the BCS.   OSU goes to the NCG.
However,  we should hope VT win, as VT will most likely still stay ahead of us with a lose.

LSU is going to the NC no matter what happens next week, dude.

Good point.  A Georgia win would actually put 3 SEC teams into the BCS! That's because Georgia would AQ, but Alabama and LSU would probably remain 1 and 2.  That's the only way that one conference can get 3 teams into the BCS.  The SEC could actally fix the game so that LSU barely loses to Georgia, and the conference would then rake in another 16 million or so.  If any conference would do it, its the SEC.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: SdK on November 27, 2011, 08:59:53 PM
If Georgia stays close to LSU, they could stay ahead of Michigan, and Michigan will only move up to #15 next week ahead of whoever loses the Big 10 championship.

Could happen, but very doubtful. Still, Iguess this gives us another upset to hope for: Southern Miss over Hoston or Georgia over LSU!

No, if Georgia beats LSU then they get Sugar Bowl bid.

Yes.  This means LSU miss the BCS.   OSU goes to the NCG.
However,  we should hope VT win, as VT will most likely still stay ahead of us with a lose.

LSU is going to the NC no matter what happens next week, dude.

Good point.  A Georgia win would actually put 3 SEC teams into the BCS! That's because Georgia would AQ, but Alabama and LSU would probably remain 1 and 2.  That's the only way that one conference can get 3 teams into the BCS.  The SEC could actally fix the game so that LSU barely loses to Georgia, and the conference would then rake in another 16 million or so.  If any conference would do it, its the SEC.



I HOPE IT HAPPENS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 27, 2011, 09:06:12 PM
Well, if I understood the BCS show correctly, should Houston win, the Sugar is down to Michigan and KSU, should Michigan become eligible.

Also, there are really only two games of relevance that probably impact Michigan's ability to get in: Big Ten Championship, SEC Championship.

With Michigan State sitting at 13, Georgia at 14, and Whisky at 15, it looks like Michigan is banking on sneaking up two spots with losses to two of those teams.  But, the problem is that if Whisky wins, they'll leapfrog Michigan, and Michigan lost to MSU, so that may hurt their computer poll numbers.

I think the chances are high Michigan gets into the Top 14, but it's probably going to be pretty close.

Another thing to consider is Baylor sitting out there at #17.  If Baylor can beat Texas, there is a chance Baylor can leapfrog Michigan in the human polls, and that would kill Michigan's chances at the BCS.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 09:11:55 PM
Well, if I understood the BCS show correctly, should Houston win, the Sugar is down to Michigan and KSU, should Michigan become eligible.

Also, there are really only two games of relevance that probably impact Michigan's ability to get in: Big Ten Championship, SEC Championship.

With Michigan State sitting at 13, Georgia at 14, and Whisky at 15, it looks like Michigan is banking on sneaking up two spots with losses to two of those teams.  But, the problem is that if Whisky wins, they'll leapfrog Michigan, and Michigan lost to MSU, so that may hurt their computer poll numbers.

I think the chances are high Michigan gets into the Top 14, but it's probably going to be pretty close.

Another thing to consider is Baylor sitting out there at #17.  If Baylor can beat Texas, there is a chance Baylor can leapfrog Michigan in the human polls, and that would kill Michigan's chances at the BCS.

Need to hope voters don't penalize Georgia for losing to LSU.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: fatty fat fat on November 27, 2011, 09:15:52 PM
Well, if I understood the BCS show correctly, should Houston win, the Sugar is down to Michigan and KSU, should Michigan become eligible.

Also, there are really only two games of relevance that probably impact Michigan's ability to get in: Big Ten Championship, SEC Championship.

With Michigan State sitting at 13, Georgia at 14, and Whisky at 15, it looks like Michigan is banking on sneaking up two spots with losses to two of those teams.  But, the problem is that if Whisky wins, they'll leapfrog Michigan, and Michigan lost to MSU, so that may hurt their computer poll numbers.

I think the chances are high Michigan gets into the Top 14, but it's probably going to be pretty close.

Another thing to consider is Baylor sitting out there at #17.  If Baylor can beat Texas, there is a chance Baylor can leapfrog Michigan in the human polls, and that would kill Michigan's chances at the BCS.

good point about baylor.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Spaces on November 27, 2011, 09:21:23 PM
On the show, were they just assuming OU would lose?

If they win, would they take our spot in the Sugar?
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 09:23:14 PM
On the show, were they just assuming OU would lose?

If they win, would they take our spot in the Sugar?

If they win, they're going to the Fiesta.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 09:32:16 PM
Quote from: espn.com
Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.

JFC, I hate the BCS.  Michigan may only have to finish in the top 18 if there is only one team from the Big 10 in the top 14.
Title: Re: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kstater on November 27, 2011, 09:43:32 PM
Quote from: espn.com
Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.

JFC, I hate the BCS.  Michigan may only have to finish in the top 18 if there is only one team from the Big 10 in the top 14.
thats only if the 10 spots aren't fulfilled through the first 14.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: bigDcat on November 27, 2011, 09:44:47 PM
Quote from: espn.com
Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.

JFC, I hate the BCS.  Michigan may only have to finish in the top 18 if there is only one team from the Big 10 in the top 14.

Do you really believe the Sugar Bowl would choose a team outside of the top 14?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 09:48:19 PM
Quote from: espn.com
Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.

JFC, I hate the BCS.  Michigan may only have to finish in the top 18 if there is only one team from the Big 10 in the top 14.

Do you really believe the Sugar Bowl would choose a team outside of the top 14?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, if that teams is Michigan, who will be ranked #15 at the lowest.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 27, 2011, 09:54:45 PM
Quote from: espn.com
Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.

JFC, I hate the BCS.  Michigan may only have to finish in the top 18 if there is only one team from the Big 10 in the top 14.

This is the full rule on the BCS website:

Quote
If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

The way I interpret it is that if there are fewer than ten eligible teams overall, then they can expand out to eighteen, and the ten eligible include the auto-qualifiers.  So, they could theoretically expand out to 18 if we had six SEC teams in the Top 14 or something, but should OU beat OSU, and Boise stays where they are, that would technically put the total number of eligible teams in the Top 14 at ten should it shake out something like this:

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Virginia Tech
4. Stanford
5. Oklahoma
6. Houston
7. Boise St.
8. Oregon
9. Arkansas
10. Kansas State
11. Oklahoma State
12. South Carolina
13. Wisconsin
14. Georgia
15. Michigan

The strikethoughs would technically be the ineligibles.  Should Baylor get in at 14, it looks like they could expand out to 18.

God, it's like this system was made to get Michigan in.  But it would be a very ballsy move for the Sugar Bowl to pass up several top 14 teams to go get Michigan at 15 or 16.  That would end up creating like another K-State rule.

Or we could all just hope So. Miss just beats Houston and kicks out their undeserving selves and makes this whole conversation a moot point while we all buy tickets to New Orleans for a matchup with Michigan.


Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Spaces on November 27, 2011, 09:55:06 PM
On the show, were they just assuming OU would lose?

If they win, would they take our spot in the Sugar?

If they win, they're going to the Fiesta.

Sorry, I meant if OU wins, would OSU take our spot in the Sugar?
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Boom Roasted on November 27, 2011, 09:58:38 PM
I want to beat the crap out of Michigan in New Orleans.   :lynchmob:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: CHONGS on November 27, 2011, 10:01:50 PM
Quote from: espn.com
Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.

JFC, I hate the BCS.  Michigan may only have to finish in the top 18 if there is only one team from the Big 10 in the top 14.

This is the full rule on the BCS website:

Quote
If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

The way I interpret it is that if there are fewer than ten eligible teams overall, then they can expand out to eighteen, and the ten eligible include the auto-qualifiers.  So, they could theoretically expand out to 18 if we had six SEC teams in the Top 14 or something, but should OU beat OSU, and Boise stays where they are, that would technically put the total number of eligible teams in the Top 14 at ten should it shake out something like this:

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Virginia Tech
4. Stanford
5. Oklahoma
6. Houston
7. Boise St.
8. Oregon
9. Arkansas
10. Kansas State
11. Oklahoma State
12. South Carolina
13. Wisconsin
14. Georgia
15. Michigan

The strikethoughs would technically be the ineligibles.  Should Baylor get in at 14, it looks like they could expand out to 18.

God, it's like this system was made to get Michigan in.  But it would be a very ballsy move for the Sugar Bowl to pass up several top 14 teams to go get Michigan at 15 or 16.  That would end up creating like another K-State rule.

Or we could all just hope So. Miss just beats Houston and kicks out their undeserving selves and makes this whole conversation a moot point while we all buy tickets to New Orleans for a matchup with Michigan.



it was designed exactly to get a team like Michigan in, is this a surprise?
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 27, 2011, 10:14:26 PM
it was designed exactly to get a team like Michigan in, is this a surprise?

No.  But, it's still disappointing nonetheless.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: slimz on November 27, 2011, 10:53:05 PM
Quote
If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

With us and OU/OSU both in the Top 14, this would appear to force us to be picked ahead of Michigan at 15-18.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 27, 2011, 11:00:48 PM
Quote
If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

With us and OU/OSU both in the Top 14, this would appear to force us to be picked ahead of Michigan at 15-18.

Good point, if Michigan isn't in top 14, we are golden.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 27, 2011, 11:05:31 PM
Quote
If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

With us and OU/OSU both in the Top 14, this would appear to force us to be picked ahead of Michigan at 15-18.

Good point, if Michigan isn't in top 14, we are golden.

Thank God.

Alright, beat ISU, OU beat OSU, and somehow find some numerical oddity to keep Michigan out of the top 14 and we're looking at the greatest season in our history.

That settles it.  I'm not watching the ISU game.  I don't think I'll be able to stomach the nerves.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: ksu101 on November 27, 2011, 11:31:46 PM
Quote
If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

With us and OU/OSU both in the Top 14, this would appear to force us to be picked ahead of Michigan at 15-18.

Good point, if Michigan isn't in top 14, we are golden.

 

Thank God.

Alright, beat ISU, OU beat OSU, and somehow find some numerical oddity to keep Michigan out of the top 14 and we're looking at the greatest season in our history.

That settles it.  I'm not watching the ISU game.  I don't think I'll be able to stomach the nerves.

I cant help but think of Basketball season 2 years ago when we were in the top 10 and Iowa State ruined our senior day. Things turned out alright, but still very  :facepalm: that we lost to them. 
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 02:07:33 AM
So, because I am who I am, I did what I thought was the math on a lot of this, and it's going to be pretty hard for Michigan to get to #14 on a bye week. 

The BCS average to hit #14 fluctuates pretty significantly from week to week, so it's hard to lock down exactly what they'll need.  But it's safe to say they'll probably need to hit something around .4800 to get into the Top 14, and I'm kind of low-balling that (in my opinion).

Here's how the BCS is calculated:

*The Harris Poll, Coaches Poll, and Computer Rankings all get a third of a vote in terms of importance
*The Computer Rankings take six different polls, eliminate your highest and lowest values, and use the remaining four values to create a scoring metric where a first place ranking is worth 25 points and a twenty-fifth place ranking is worth one point.  You add those values together and divide by one-hundred to get your value.
*The Harris Poll and BCS poll metrics are based on your point total (i.e. votes) divided by the maximum number of votes.  Harris has 2,875 and the Coaches poll has 1,475
*At the end, all three of your metrics are added together and the average is your BCS number

I started with the computers because, well, that's where I started.  It turns out that Michigan can't move up much in any of them.  Right now, their point total is .410, and their max value there is probably .450 after you look at who is ahead of them in all of the polls.  Their computer numbers are really going to drag them down, and if Michigan State loses to Wisconsin, it hurts them even more because their loss looks worse to the computers.  And if Wisconsin loses that game, it just means Michigan State has either #12 or #13 in the BCS on lock down.

Once you get to the computer values, Michigan will need to gain a decent amount of votes in the Harris and Coaches polls.  Because Georgia sits at #12, and they face LSU in the title game, there's a chance they may not get penalized all that much with a loss.  And Baylor and TCU sit right behind Michigan, while KSU sits right in front of them.  There's a better than average chance, with Michigan's inactivity, that there will be a mish mash of teams in that 14-18 range there that are all stealing votes from one another, especially if TCU and Baylor win convincingly (along with KSU getting to ten wins).  Also, the odds of Georgia and the Big Ten champ dropping into that zone increase the odds of a much more even vote distribution in that space, making Michigan's odds of jumping two or three hundred votes pretty difficult.  They may jump a spot or two, but it won't be a gigantic vote increase, which is what they need in the calculations.

As far as the Coaches' Poll goes, they'll probably jump a spot if Georgia loses, but if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten title, Michigan State currently sits at #9, and it's highly unlikely that voters will drop Michigan State six or seven spots into a position behind a team they beat earlier this year.  So, if Whisky wins, Michigan may gain a few votes, but nowhere near what they actually need to move the BCS meter.

So, basically, Michigan needs nearly all of the games to fall their way, and they need MSU to win the Big Ten title.  If Wisconsin wins, it definitely hurts Michigan because they'll vault ahead of them in basically every way, and it will definitely hurt Michigan's computer values.  And Baylor, if they can beat Texas, stands a very serious chance of jumping Michigan and getting into the Top 14 because of how good their computer values are (and will be if they beat Texas), and how much movement they can gain in the human polls while Michigan sits at home and waits.

After breaking it down, even if Georgia loses, if Wisconsin and Baylor win next week, there's a better than average chance Michigan doesn't get into the Top 14, and we get an at-large into the Sugar Bowl, even after we get a share of the trophy with OSU and OU.

Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: 0.42 on November 28, 2011, 02:19:22 AM
So, because I am who I am, I did what I thought was the math on a lot of this, and it's going to be pretty hard for Michigan to get to #14 on a bye week. 

The BCS average to hit #14 fluctuates pretty significantly from week to week, so it's hard to lock down exactly what they'll need.  But it's safe to say they'll probably need to hit something around .4800 to get into the Top 14, and I'm kind of low-balling that (in my opinion).

Here's how the BCS is calculated:

*The Harris Poll, Coaches Poll, and Computer Rankings all get a third of a vote in terms of importance
*The Computer Rankings take six different polls, eliminate your highest and lowest values, and use the remaining four values to create a scoring metric where a first place ranking is worth 25 points and a twenty-fifth place ranking is worth one point.  You add those values together and divide by one-hundred to get your value.
*The Harris Poll and BCS poll metrics are based on your point total (i.e. votes) divided by the maximum number of votes.  Harris has 2,875 and the Coaches poll has 1,475
*At the end, all three of your metrics are added together and the average is your BCS number

I started with the computers because, well, that's where I started.  It turns out that Michigan can't move up much in any of them.  Right now, their point total is .410, and their max value there is probably .450 after you look at who is ahead of them in all of the polls.  Their computer numbers are really going to drag them down, and if Michigan State loses to Wisconsin, it hurts them even more because their loss looks worse to the computers.  And if Wisconsin loses that game, it just means Michigan State has either #12 or #13 in the BCS on lock down.

Once you get to the computer values, Michigan will need to gain a decent amount of votes in the Harris and Coaches polls.  Because Georgia sits at #12, and they face LSU in the title game, there's a chance they may not get penalized all that much with a loss.  And Baylor and TCU sit right behind Michigan, while KSU sits right in front of them.  There's a better than average chance, with Michigan's inactivity, that there will be a mish mash of teams in that 14-18 range there that are all stealing votes from one another, especially if TCU and Baylor win convincingly (along with KSU getting to ten wins).  Also, the odds of Georgia and the Big Ten champ dropping into that zone increase the odds of a much more even vote distribution in that space, making Michigan's odds of jumping two or three hundred votes pretty difficult.  They may jump a spot or two, but it won't be a gigantic vote increase, which is what they need in the calculations.

As far as the Coaches' Poll goes, they'll probably jump a spot if Georgia loses, but if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten title, Michigan State currently sits at #9, and it's highly unlikely that voters will drop Michigan State six or seven spots into a position behind a team they beat earlier this year.  So, if Whisky wins, Michigan may gain a few votes, but nowhere near what they actually need to move the BCS meter.

So, basically, Michigan needs nearly all of the games to fall their way, and they need MSU to win the Big Ten title.  If Wisconsin wins, it definitely hurts Michigan because they'll vault ahead of them in basically every way, and it will definitely hurt Michigan's computer values.  And Baylor, if they can beat Texas, stands a very serious chance of jumping Michigan and getting into the Top 14 because of how good their computer values are (and will be if they beat Texas), and how much movement they can gain in the human polls while Michigan sits at home and waits.

After breaking it down, even if Georgia loses, if Wisconsin and Baylor win next week, there's a better than average chance Michigan doesn't get into the Top 14, and we get an at-large into the Sugar Bowl, even after we get a share of the trophy with OSU and OU.




The hangover that all of us will feel when we lose to ISU and get relegated to the Insight Bowl will be worse than the collective pain of finishing 5-7


reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 02:23:29 AM
The hangover that all of us will feel when we lose to ISU and get relegated to the Insight Bowl will be worse than the collective pain of finishing 5-7


reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx reverse jinx

Honest to God, I'm thinking about going with my wife and son to a "Sid the Science Kid" pancake breakfast and meet and greet during the game because I know I'll be a wreck flipping back and forth between that and the C-USA championship game.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: K-S-U-Wildcats! on November 28, 2011, 08:17:06 AM
After breaking it down, even if Georgia loses, if Wisconsin and Baylor win next week, there's a better than average chance Michigan doesn't get into the Top 14, and we get an at-large into the Sugar Bowl, even after we get a share of the trophy with OSU and OU.

Better hope Georgia loses. Even if they win, it won't knock LSU or Alabama out of the NC (remember OU 2003?), which will mean the SEC takes 3 of the 10 BCS bids. All this speculation over Michigan will be irrelevant if Georgia takes another bid.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 28, 2011, 08:28:54 AM
So, why does everyone think the Sugar Bowl will choose us over OSU? :dunno:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: TheHamburglar on November 28, 2011, 08:50:46 AM
Hey guys, stop worrying about the top 14 and it expanding to the top 18 to let Michigan in.  That is for the at-large pool only and you guys are forgetting that the Big East champ is already taking 1 of those 10 spot.  They won't have to expand outside of the top 14 because they only need 9 eligible teams in the top 14 to fill out the 5 bowls.  If you cross off 3 SEC teams and 1 Big12 team, that still leaves 10 teams with 1 to spare (Boise).

Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 09:25:02 AM
Hey guys, stop worrying about the top 14 and it expanding to the top 18 to let Michigan in.  That is for the at-large pool only and you guys are forgetting that the Big East champ is already taking 1 of those 10 spot.  They won't have to expand outside of the top 14 because they only need 9 eligible teams in the top 14 to fill out the 5 bowls.  If you cross off 3 SEC teams and 1 Big12 team, that still leaves 10 teams with 1 to spare (Boise).



I'm not worried about the Top 18 stuff after reading this thread last night and some other stuff this morning.

I am concerned about Michigan getting into the Top 14.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: 420seriouscat69 on November 28, 2011, 09:51:28 AM
Hey dumbasses, stop worrying! I sent some of gma fannings homemade bread over to the sugar bowl reps, this crap is locked up! Thank me later at MOAP 2.5!  :gocho:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Trim on November 28, 2011, 09:56:44 AM
Hey dumbasses, stop worrying! I sent some of gma fannings homemade bread over to the sugar bowl reps, this crap is locked up! Thank me later at MOAP 2.5!  :gocho:

Rumblings that MichiganisGood logged into your ups account and changed your card to reflect the bread came from him.  We're mumped.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: 420seriouscat69 on November 28, 2011, 10:01:23 AM
Hey dumbasses, stop worrying! I sent some of gma fannings homemade bread over to the sugar bowl reps, this crap is locked up! Thank me later at MOAP 2.5!  :gocho:

Rumblings that MichiganisGood logged into your ups account and changed your card to reflect the bread came from him.  We're mumped.

 :horrorsurprise:  :ohno:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: TheHamburglar on November 28, 2011, 10:20:07 AM
Hey guys, stop worrying about the top 14 and it expanding to the top 18 to let Michigan in.  That is for the at-large pool only and you guys are forgetting that the Big East champ is already taking 1 of those 10 spot.  They won't have to expand outside of the top 14 because they only need 9 eligible teams in the top 14 to fill out the 5 bowls.  If you cross off 3 SEC teams and 1 Big12 team, that still leaves 10 teams with 1 to spare (Boise).



I'm not worried about the Top 18 stuff after reading this thread last night and some other stuff this morning.

I am concerned about Michigan getting into the Top 14.

I'm running a bunch of different scenario analysis of what has to happen for Michigan to get into the top 14 and for them to get left out of the top 14 (including getting jumped by Baylor) with respect to movement in all 3 polls for a final project for a class, will post wednesdayish...but prelim work is showing its not very good for KSU.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Trim on November 28, 2011, 10:35:05 AM
Hey guys, stop worrying about the top 14 and it expanding to the top 18 to let Michigan in.  That is for the at-large pool only and you guys are forgetting that the Big East champ is already taking 1 of those 10 spot.  They won't have to expand outside of the top 14 because they only need 9 eligible teams in the top 14 to fill out the 5 bowls.  If you cross off 3 SEC teams and 1 Big12 team, that still leaves 10 teams with 1 to spare (Boise).



I'm not worried about the Top 18 stuff after reading this thread last night and some other stuff this morning.

I am concerned about Michigan getting into the Top 14.

I'm running a bunch of different scenario analysis of what has to happen for Michigan to get into the top 14 and for them to get left out of the top 14 (including getting jumped by Baylor) with respect to movement in all 3 polls for a final project for a class, will post wednesdayish...but prelim work is showing its not very good for KSU.

Is it too late to change your class project to odds of us beating ISU and OU beating OSU?  I'd be interested in that.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Spaces on November 28, 2011, 10:57:58 AM
So, why does everyone think the Sugar Bowl will choose us over OSU? :dunno:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: jmlynch1 on November 28, 2011, 10:58:58 AM
This is all Reggie Bush's fault :curse:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: TheHamburglar on November 28, 2011, 11:09:44 AM
Hey guys, stop worrying about the top 14 and it expanding to the top 18 to let Michigan in.  That is for the at-large pool only and you guys are forgetting that the Big East champ is already taking 1 of those 10 spot.  They won't have to expand outside of the top 14 because they only need 9 eligible teams in the top 14 to fill out the 5 bowls.  If you cross off 3 SEC teams and 1 Big12 team, that still leaves 10 teams with 1 to spare (Boise).



I'm not worried about the Top 18 stuff after reading this thread last night and some other stuff this morning.

I am concerned about Michigan getting into the Top 14.

I'm running a bunch of different scenario analysis of what has to happen for Michigan to get into the top 14 and for them to get left out of the top 14 (including getting jumped by Baylor) with respect to movement in all 3 polls for a final project for a class, will post wednesdayish...but prelim work is showing its not very good for KSU.

Is it too late to change your class project to odds of us beating ISU and OU beating OSU?  I'd be interested in that.

No, project is due Wednesday night.  I could use what is generally considered the best computer model out there, Sagarin's predictor, and find a relationship between the difference in predictor score between the favorite and underdog vs. the outcome of the games played in the last 3 weeks (result will be independent of score, just win vs loss of favorite), then use that as model to find the % chance KSU wins, the % chance OU wins, then the % chance of both of them happening.  If anyone else has a better idea of what computer model to use as the basis of difference in rating vs. the outcome of the game as win/loss of favorite, post it.  If a better idea surfaces I'll use that to do the analysis.  I'll do this analysis tomorrow and tack it onto the end of my other stuff, should garner more bonus (thanks for the idea Trim).
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: mocat on November 28, 2011, 11:37:23 AM
This is all Reggie Bush's fault :curse:

 :lol:
Title: Re: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: 8manpick on November 28, 2011, 12:06:22 PM
Hamburgler, out of curiosity, what class is this for?
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 12:10:10 PM
Hey guys, stop worrying about the top 14 and it expanding to the top 18 to let Michigan in.  That is for the at-large pool only and you guys are forgetting that the Big East champ is already taking 1 of those 10 spot.  They won't have to expand outside of the top 14 because they only need 9 eligible teams in the top 14 to fill out the 5 bowls.  If you cross off 3 SEC teams and 1 Big12 team, that still leaves 10 teams with 1 to spare (Boise).



I'm not worried about the Top 18 stuff after reading this thread last night and some other stuff this morning.

I am concerned about Michigan getting into the Top 14.

I'm running a bunch of different scenario analysis of what has to happen for Michigan to get into the top 14 and for them to get left out of the top 14 (including getting jumped by Baylor) with respect to movement in all 3 polls for a final project for a class, will post wednesdayish...but prelim work is showing its not very good for KSU.

Is it too late to change your class project to odds of us beating ISU and OU beating OSU?  I'd be interested in that.

No, project is due Wednesday night.  I could use what is generally considered the best computer model out there, Sagarin's predictor, and find a relationship between the difference in predictor score between the favorite and underdog vs. the outcome of the games played in the last 3 weeks (result will be independent of score, just win vs loss of favorite), then use that as model to find the % chance KSU wins, the % chance OU wins, then the % chance of both of them happening.  If anyone else has a better idea of what computer model to use as the basis of difference in rating vs. the outcome of the game as win/loss of favorite, post it.  If a better idea surfaces I'll use that to do the analysis.  I'll do this analysis tomorrow and tack it onto the end of my other stuff, should garner more bonus (thanks for the idea Trim).

Just based on eyeball, Andersen and Hester looks like it's more in line with the actual BCS standings than Sagarin.  The Sagarin ratings look like they have a pretty wicked standard deviation.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 12:20:58 PM
Remember, though, 2/3 of the BCS ranking is based on the votes in the human polls, and typically speaking, human polls are not kind in week 14 to teams that are idle.  Make sure you factor that in there.

The thing that I was looking at is there is little possible room for movement above Michigan in a meaningful way in the Harris and Coaches polls.  Active teams next week outside of six or seven spots ahead of them most likely aren't in a position to lose.  However, there are teams immediately below Michigan with an opportunity to gain traction in the polls due to the potential for big wins over inferior opponents (TCU) or big wins over meaningful teams (Baylor).  The fact that Michigan is sandwiched between teams that will most likely fall into their immediate range (Michigan State/Wisconsin, Georgia), coupled with teams that will most likely rise into their range (TCU, Baylor) means that it will be hard to predict their vote tallies.

KSU was inactive last week, had no immediate movement around them, and just by having a bye week, they lost sixteen votes in the Harris poll and gained ten votes in the coaches poll.  You have to account for that variation.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: steve dave on November 28, 2011, 12:25:48 PM
ksu is inactive this week as well as far as that goes
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 12:33:40 PM
ksu is inactive this week as well as far as that goes

Yes, but as long as we roadblock a spot in front of Michigan in the Coaches and Harris polls, it's huge for us.

Should Georgia lose this weekend and KSU beats a bowl-eligible ISU, we'll move up to 14.  Depending on who loses between Mich St. and Wisconsin, we could go as high as 13.

However, a lame duck Michigan team is sandwiched between teams that will already be dropping 3-6 spots and teams with a potential for big wins.  Not a good situation to be in.

I can easily see Baylor jumping Michigan in the Harris and Coaches polls if Baylor thumps Texas at home on Senior Day (and RG3's last home game).

Michigan needs some serious help from other teams to get eligible this week.  They're farther out than ESPN's Michigan guy is postulating.

They beat OSU this past week and dropped.  Next week they're inactive with activity all around them.  That's not good for them at all.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kso_FAN on November 28, 2011, 12:37:44 PM
ksu is inactive this week as well as far as that goes

Yes, but as long as we roadblock a spot in front of Michigan in the Coaches and Harris polls, it's huge for us.

Should Georgia lose this weekend and KSU beats a bowl-eligible ISU, we'll move up to 14.  Depending on who loses between Mich St. and Wisconsin, we could go as high as 13.

However, a lame duck Michigan team is sandwiched between teams that will already be dropping 3-6 spots and teams with a potential for big wins.  Not a good situation to be in.

I can easily see Baylor jumping Michigan in the Harris and Coaches polls if Baylor thumps Texas at home on Senior Day (and RG3's last home game).

Michigan needs some serious help from other teams to get eligible this week.  They're farther out than ESPN's Michigan guy is postulating.

They beat OSU this past week and dropped.  Next week they're inactive with activity all around them.  That's not good for them at all.

Snyder needs to run up the score. If we could put up 40 on them it could help with human voters quite a bit, especially with their OSU win fresh. Granted, I doubt it happens, but if we have opportunities to score late and are already comfortably in the lead, hopefullly we do.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 12:41:00 PM
ksu is inactive this week as well as far as that goes

Yes, but as long as we roadblock a spot in front of Michigan in the Coaches and Harris polls, it's huge for us.

Should Georgia lose this weekend and KSU beats a bowl-eligible ISU, we'll move up to 14.  Depending on who loses between Mich St. and Wisconsin, we could go as high as 13.

However, a lame duck Michigan team is sandwiched between teams that will already be dropping 3-6 spots and teams with a potential for big wins.  Not a good situation to be in.

I can easily see Baylor jumping Michigan in the Harris and Coaches polls if Baylor thumps Texas at home on Senior Day (and RG3's last home game).

Michigan needs some serious help from other teams to get eligible this week.  They're farther out than ESPN's Michigan guy is postulating.

They beat OSU this past week and dropped.  Next week they're inactive with activity all around them.  That's not good for them at all.

Snyder needs to run up the score. If we could put up 40 on them it could help with human voters quite a bit, especially with their OSU win fresh. Granted, I doubt it happens, but if we have opportunities to score late and are already comfortably in the lead, hopefullly we do.

This would be a fantastic week for a 66-14 thumping like we gave to A&M back in '09.

I have no doubt that Snyder is aware of that, too.  I'm betting it's why he was livid after we beat Texas in Austin without style points.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 28, 2011, 12:45:10 PM
This is all going to come down to how much Georgia drops if they lose to LSU.  I doubt there their computer numbers are going to take much of a hit, so really it comes down to the human voters.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: theKSU on November 28, 2011, 12:49:27 PM
I think Oklahoma winning may actually help K-State in the BCS.  OU would fall below Michigan if they lost, but OSU is likely to stay ahead of them if they lose.  If Baylor and TCU leap Michigan, they will stay at 15.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Stevesie60 on November 28, 2011, 12:51:03 PM
If Houston loses to So. Miss and Michigan fails to make the top 15, I assume we end up playing BSU in the Sugar Bowl?
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: theKSU on November 28, 2011, 12:52:48 PM
If Houston loses, they won't qualify, but I think maybe Boise State does. I'm not sure. 
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Trim on November 28, 2011, 12:53:32 PM
I wish most goEMAW posters had attacked the banana thread with the zeal they're wasting here.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: pissclams on November 28, 2011, 12:54:06 PM
I wish most goEMAW posters had attacked the banana thread with the zeal they're wasting here.
i did appreciate the reference to your banana holder.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Trim on November 28, 2011, 12:56:45 PM
I wish most goEMAW posters had attacked the banana thread with the zeal they're wasting here.
i did appreciate the reference to your banana holder.

It's loaded up with some 'nanas right now that should be just ripe for consumption when I get home.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 12:58:18 PM
I think Oklahoma winning may actually help K-State in the BCS.  OU would fall below Michigan if they lost, but OSU is likely to stay ahead of them if they lose.  If Baylor and TCU leap Michigan, they will stay at 15.

Yep.  Wisconsin beating Mich St. probably wouldn't hurt.  It would most likely impact Michigan's computer numbers in a negative way, and it would be difficult for voters to drop Michigan State over six spots in the coaches poll (they currently sit at 9) and past a team they beat head-to-head.  Also, in the Harris Poll, Mich St. sits at 11 and Georgia sits at 12.  A loss to LSU may not drop Georgia past 15 in the Harris, and Mich St. losing to #13 Wisconsin may not be much of a penalty either.

Oklahoma and Wisconsin winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.

I really can't stress how little positive movement Michigan has the potential for this week.  If their computer numbers dive at all, or stay where they are, they're screwed.  If Baylor has any positive movement in the human polls, they're probably jumping Michigan because of their computer numbers.  They aren't very far behind now as it is.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: pissclams on November 28, 2011, 01:03:19 PM
I wish most goEMAW posters had attacked the banana thread with the zeal they're wasting here.
i did appreciate the reference to your banana holder.

It's loaded up with some 'nanas right now that should be just ripe for consumption when I get home.

man that sounds fantastic.  well, i guess I hope that they are extra stringy.  assuming you like stringy fruits since you like bananas.  kudos.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Stevesie60 on November 28, 2011, 01:04:16 PM
Oklahoma winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.


Have we already discussed why K-State would be more attractive than OSU to the Sugar Bowl if OSU loses? No way they drop below us. Is it just because they would have lost 2 in a row?
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 01:06:09 PM
If Houston loses, they won't qualify, but I think maybe Boise State does. I'm not sure. 

If Houston loses, none of this matters at all.  We'll probably be playing Boise or Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 01:09:12 PM
Oklahoma winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.


Have we already discussed why K-State would be more attractive than OSU to the Sugar Bowl if OSU loses? No way they drop below us. Is it just because they would have lost 2 in a row?

From what I understand, there has been dialogue with the Sugar Bowl for some time now, and they are very interested in KSU.  Also, it would be hard to select a team into the BCS that has lost two straight games.

The ISU loss was bad, bad.  That was a showcase game on a boring Friday night.  Everyone saw that.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: K-S-U-Wildcats! on November 28, 2011, 01:31:24 PM
If Houston loses, they won't qualify, but I think maybe Boise State does. I'm not sure.  

If Houston loses, none of this matters at all.  We'll probably be playing Boise or Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.

Houston losing would just mean that a BCS at-large spot opens up. You'd then be down to Boise State, Michigan (if they qualify) and OU/OSU/KSU fighting over two at-large berths.

A 10-2 OSU would have a higher BCS ranking and national buzz than KSU, so its very unlikely KSU goes Sugar ahead of OSU.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 28, 2011, 01:56:45 PM
Oklahoma winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.


Have we already discussed why K-State would be more attractive than OSU to the Sugar Bowl if OSU loses? No way they drop below us. Is it just because they would have lost 2 in a row?

From what I understand, there has been dialogue with the Sugar Bowl for some time now, and they are very interested in KSU.  Also, it would be hard to select a team into the BCS that has lost two straight games.

The ISU loss was bad, bad.  That was a showcase game on a boring Friday night.  Everyone saw that.

I just cannot imagine a scenario where T. Boone doesn't get OSU into a BCS game.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Spaces on November 28, 2011, 02:14:39 PM
If Houston loses, they won't qualify, but I think maybe Boise State does. I'm not sure.  

If Houston loses, none of this matters at all.  We'll probably be playing Boise or Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.

Houston losing would just mean that a BCS at-large spot opens up. You'd then be down to Boise State, Michigan (if they qualify) and OU/OSU/KSU fighting over two at-large berths.

A 10-2 OSU would have a higher BCS ranking and national buzz than KSU, so its very unlikely KSU goes Sugar ahead of OSU.
Pan just said we'd go over OSU, but thanks though.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: K-S-U-Wildcats! on November 28, 2011, 02:26:07 PM
If Houston loses, they won't qualify, but I think maybe Boise State does. I'm not sure.  

If Houston loses, none of this matters at all.  We'll probably be playing Boise or Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.

Houston losing would just mean that a BCS at-large spot opens up. You'd then be down to Boise State, Michigan (if they qualify) and OU/OSU/KSU fighting over two at-large berths.

A 10-2 OSU would have a higher BCS ranking and national buzz than KSU, so its very unlikely KSU goes Sugar ahead of OSU.
Pan just said we'd go over OSU, but thanks though.

He's more optimistic than I am. KSU definitely has factors in its favor, but the biggest factor in bowl selection is national interest, and its tough to argue OSU doesn't have an advantage here. They were national title contenders and all over the media for most of the year.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Spaces on November 28, 2011, 02:35:26 PM
They have T-Boone and artsy unis, but we're cooler and better.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Spaces on November 28, 2011, 02:40:58 PM
One time in Hawaii, I saw people wearing K-State stuff. Didn't see any OSU stuff.

Maybe it doesn't mean anything BCS wise, but maybe it does.  :D
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on November 28, 2011, 02:47:18 PM
If Houston loses, they won't qualify, but I think maybe Boise State does. I'm not sure.  

If Houston loses, none of this matters at all.  We'll probably be playing Boise or Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.

Houston losing would just mean that a BCS at-large spot opens up. You'd then be down to Boise State, Michigan (if they qualify) and OU/OSU/KSU fighting over two at-large berths.

A 10-2 OSU would have a higher BCS ranking and national buzz than KSU, so its very unlikely KSU goes Sugar ahead of OSU.
Pan just said we'd go over OSU, but thanks though.

He's more optimistic than I am. KSU definitely has factors in its favor, but the biggest factor in bowl selection is national interest, and its tough to argue OSU doesn't have an advantage here. They were national title contenders and all over the media for most of the year.

The only national buzz around OSU, should they lose Bedlam, will be as a team in a tailspin at the end of the year.

KSU, on the other hand, finished with a thriller against A&M, beat Texas in Austin on Senior Day, and ended with a win against an upstart Iowa State team.

It wouldn't hurt if OU is able to put an absolute whipping on them in Stillwater, either.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Asteriskhead on November 28, 2011, 02:50:28 PM
One time in Hawaii, I saw people wearing K-State stuff. Didn't see any OSU stuff.

Maybe it doesn't mean anything BCS wise, but maybe it does.  :D

Made some fans in '94 at the Aloha Classic no doubt.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: mcmwcat on November 28, 2011, 02:54:47 PM
One time in Hawaii, I saw people wearing K-State stuff. Didn't see any OSU stuff.

Maybe it doesn't mean anything BCS wise, but maybe it does.  :D

i got mobbed wearing a k-state hat in Honolulu last week.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: K-S-U-Wildcats! on November 28, 2011, 03:01:04 PM
He's more optimistic than I am. KSU definitely has factors in its favor, but the biggest factor in bowl selection is national interest, and its tough to argue OSU doesn't have an advantage here. They were national title contenders and all over the media for most of the year.

The only national buzz around OSU, should they lose Bedlam, will be as a team in a tailspin at the end of the year.

KSU, on the other hand, finished with a thriller against A&M, beat Texas in Austin on Senior Day, and ended with a win against an upstart Iowa State team.

It wouldn't hurt if OU is able to put an absolute whipping on them in Stillwater, either.

No publicity is bad publicity. Ask a random football fan who doesn't follow the Big 12 whether they'd rather see OSU or KSU in the Sugar Bowl, and he'd probably wonder why KSU is even a choice.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: mcmwcat on November 28, 2011, 03:30:17 PM
He's more optimistic than I am. KSU definitely has factors in its favor, but the biggest factor in bowl selection is national interest, and its tough to argue OSU doesn't have an advantage here. They were national title contenders and all over the media for most of the year.

The only national buzz around OSU, should they lose Bedlam, will be as a team in a tailspin at the end of the year.

KSU, on the other hand, finished with a thriller against A&M, beat Texas in Austin on Senior Day, and ended with a win against an upstart Iowa State team.

It wouldn't hurt if OU is able to put an absolute whipping on them in Stillwater, either.

No publicity is bad publicity. Ask a random football fan who doesn't follow the Big 12 whether they'd rather see OSU or KSU in the Sugar Bowl, and he'd probably wonder why KSU is even a choice.

go kill yourself.  tia
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 28, 2011, 08:41:27 PM
If Houston loses, they won't qualify, but I think maybe Boise State does. I'm not sure.  

If Houston loses, none of this matters at all.  We'll probably be playing Boise or Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.

Houston losing would just mean that a BCS at-large spot opens up. You'd then be down to Boise State, Michigan (if they qualify) and OU/OSU/KSU fighting over two at-large berths.

A 10-2 OSU would have a higher BCS ranking and national buzz than KSU, so its very unlikely KSU goes Sugar ahead of OSU.
Pan just said we'd go over OSU, but thanks though.

He's more optimistic than I am. KSU definitely has factors in its favor, but the biggest factor in bowl selection is national interest, and its tough to argue OSU doesn't have an advantage here. They were national title contenders and all over the media for most of the year.

OSU has no chance at a BCS bowl if they lose this weekend.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 28, 2011, 08:46:33 PM
Last year, South Carolina fell from #19 to #20 in the BCS standing after losing to Auburn in the SEC championship.  I'm going to go ahead and book my flights to Nawlins, we're a rough ridin' lock.

 :lynchmob:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Winters on November 28, 2011, 08:48:07 PM
Last year, South Carolina fell from #19 to #20 in the BCS standing after losing to Auburn in the SEC championship.  I'm going to go ahead and book my flights to Nawlins, we're a rough ridin' lock.

 :lynchmob:
You are bold Kim Carnes.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: pufiZzle on November 28, 2011, 10:02:31 PM
Oklahoma winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.


Have we already discussed why K-State would be more attractive than OSU to the Sugar Bowl if OSU loses? No way they drop below us. Is it just because they would have lost 2 in a row?

From what I understand, there has been dialogue with the Sugar Bowl for some time now, and they are very interested in KSU.  Also, it would be hard to select a team into the BCS that has lost two straight games.

The ISU loss was bad, bad.  That was a showcase game on a boring Friday night.  Everyone saw that.

Wouldn't we be a more attractive at large selection compared to a 9-3 OU team other than a 10-2 OSU team?  Everyone is saying we want OU to win (obviously for the delicious 23 flavors) but OSU winning would completely eliminate OU from an at large bid whereas OSU would still look pretty dang good to the Sugar if they lost. 
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: SdK on November 28, 2011, 10:23:38 PM
Oklahoma winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.


Have we already discussed why K-State would be more attractive than OSU to the Sugar Bowl if OSU loses? No way they drop below us. Is it just because they would have lost 2 in a row?

From what I understand, there has been dialogue with the Sugar Bowl for some time now, and they are very interested in KSU.  Also, it would be hard to select a team into the BCS that has lost two straight games.

The ISU loss was bad, bad.  That was a showcase game on a boring Friday night.  Everyone saw that.

Wouldn't we be a more attractive at large selection compared to a 9-3 OU team other than a 10-2 OSU team?  Everyone is saying we want OU to win (obviously for the delicious 23 flavors) but OSU winning would completely eliminate OU from an at large bid whereas OSU would still look pretty dang good to the Sugar if they lost. 


Why? we took them to the wire on their field. They would have lost two in a row. I don't see how they would be me attractive???? They are the sexier team, sure, but I don't see how their resume beats ours.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: mcmwcat on November 29, 2011, 07:32:19 AM
 :zzz:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: steve dave on November 29, 2011, 07:37:20 AM
:zzz:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Barry McCockner on November 29, 2011, 07:43:54 AM
Oklahoma winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.


Have we already discussed why K-State would be more attractive than OSU to the Sugar Bowl if OSU loses? No way they drop below us. Is it just because they would have lost 2 in a row?

From what I understand, there has been dialogue with the Sugar Bowl for some time now, and they are very interested in KSU.  Also, it would be hard to select a team into the BCS that has lost two straight games.

The ISU loss was bad, bad.  That was a showcase game on a boring Friday night.  Everyone saw that.

Wouldn't we be a more attractive at large selection compared to a 9-3 OU team other than a 10-2 OSU team?  Everyone is saying we want OU to win (obviously for the delicious 23 flavors) but OSU winning would completely eliminate OU from an at large bid whereas OSU would still look pretty dang good to the Sugar if they lost. 


Why? we took them to the wire on their field. They would have lost two in a row. I don't see how they would be me attractive???? They are the sexier team, sure, but I don't see how their resume beats ours.

Sexy matters, resume doesn't.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: K-S-U-Wildcats! on November 29, 2011, 07:45:21 AM
Oklahoma winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.


Have we already discussed why K-State would be more attractive than OSU to the Sugar Bowl if OSU loses? No way they drop below us. Is it just because they would have lost 2 in a row?

From what I understand, there has been dialogue with the Sugar Bowl for some time now, and they are very interested in KSU.  Also, it would be hard to select a team into the BCS that has lost two straight games.

The ISU loss was bad, bad.  That was a showcase game on a boring Friday night.  Everyone saw that.

Wouldn't we be a more attractive at large selection compared to a 9-3 OU team other than a 10-2 OSU team?  Everyone is saying we want OU to win (obviously for the delicious 23 flavors) but OSU winning would completely eliminate OU from an at large bid whereas OSU would still look pretty dang good to the Sugar if they lost. 


Why? we took them to the wire on their field. They would have lost two in a row. I don't see how they would be me attractive???? They are the sexier team, sure, but I don't see how their resume beats ours.

And if bowl berths were handed out based on merit, you would at least have an argument, but merit is way down the list for bowl committees. Any given bowl might choose a 10-2 KSU over a 10-2 OSU, but it is unlikely.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 29, 2011, 08:02:52 AM
Oklahoma winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.


Have we already discussed why K-State would be more attractive than OSU to the Sugar Bowl if OSU loses? No way they drop below us. Is it just because they would have lost 2 in a row?

From what I understand, there has been dialogue with the Sugar Bowl for some time now, and they are very interested in KSU.  Also, it would be hard to select a team into the BCS that has lost two straight games.

The ISU loss was bad, bad.  That was a showcase game on a boring Friday night.  Everyone saw that.

Wouldn't we be a more attractive at large selection compared to a 9-3 OU team other than a 10-2 OSU team?  Everyone is saying we want OU to win (obviously for the delicious 23 flavors) but OSU winning would completely eliminate OU from an at large bid whereas OSU would still look pretty dang good to the Sugar if they lost. 

Maybe, but we wouldn't be the dadgum Big 12 Champs in that scenario, so that is the worst case.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on November 29, 2011, 08:34:26 AM
Oklahoma winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.


Have we already discussed why K-State would be more attractive than OSU to the Sugar Bowl if OSU loses? No way they drop below us. Is it just because they would have lost 2 in a row?

From what I understand, there has been dialogue with the Sugar Bowl for some time now, and they are very interested in KSU.  Also, it would be hard to select a team into the BCS that has lost two straight games.

The ISU loss was bad, bad.  That was a showcase game on a boring Friday night.  Everyone saw that.

Wouldn't we be a more attractive at large selection compared to a 9-3 OU team other than a 10-2 OSU team?  Everyone is saying we want OU to win (obviously for the delicious 23 flavors) but OSU winning would completely eliminate OU from an at large bid whereas OSU would still look pretty dang good to the Sugar if they lost. 


Why? we took them to the wire on their field. They would have lost two in a row. I don't see how they would be me attractive???? They are the sexier team, sure, but I don't see how their resume beats ours.

Sexy matters, resume doesn't.

We are much, much sexier.  It's not even close.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 29, 2011, 08:38:31 AM
Oklahoma winning would be good for us in all polls from a BCS standpoint.  We should all be Boomer Sooner on Saturday for BCS reasons, too.


Have we already discussed why K-State would be more attractive than OSU to the Sugar Bowl if OSU loses? No way they drop below us. Is it just because they would have lost 2 in a row?

From what I understand, there has been dialogue with the Sugar Bowl for some time now, and they are very interested in KSU.  Also, it would be hard to select a team into the BCS that has lost two straight games.

The ISU loss was bad, bad.  That was a showcase game on a boring Friday night.  Everyone saw that.

Wouldn't we be a more attractive at large selection compared to a 9-3 OU team other than a 10-2 OSU team?  Everyone is saying we want OU to win (obviously for the delicious 23 flavors) but OSU winning would completely eliminate OU from an at large bid whereas OSU would still look pretty dang good to the Sugar if they lost. 


Why? we took them to the wire on their field. They would have lost two in a row. I don't see how they would be me attractive???? They are the sexier team, sure, but I don't see how their resume beats ours.

Sexy matters, resume doesn't.

We are much, much sexier.  It's not even close.

(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fextras.mnginteractive.com%2Flive%2Fmedia%2Fsite36%2F2008%2F0223%2F20080223__20080224_C11_SP24MALE%7Ep1_200.JPG&hash=e80f1049adeaad42861f24ce4515daf0e1060457) vs. (https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ft1.gstatic.com%2Fimages%3Fq%3Dtbn%3AANd9GcTySUsUHac1JNzaSVfvOEzclAY2c0xY9oxW-RGsFij-gH2mzEgO6dc-kUXE&hash=56c1c92431c4e14d4603e14b1a129b2e066446fe)

Good call. Not even close.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: EMAW4life-JHL on November 29, 2011, 09:53:16 AM
Brandon Weeden :barf:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on December 01, 2011, 09:47:54 PM
Nevermind
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: dontfeedthebear on December 01, 2011, 10:09:09 PM
I'm sure this has been spelled out once already, but why, if they crack the top 15, would Michigan be the favorite to go to the Sugar Bowl, if we and/or OU are ranked above them?  I know it's not based on rankings, but how is a Michigan team-that's currently not even qualified to go-is getting more ESPN pub about going and there is no love for a 2nd BCS Big 12 team?
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: mcmwcat on December 01, 2011, 10:11:17 PM
$signs
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: EMAW4life-JHL on December 01, 2011, 10:11:38 PM
I'm sure this has been spelled out once already, but why, if they crack the top 15, would Michigan be the favorite to go to the Sugar Bowl, if we and/or OU are ranked above them?  I know it's not based on rankings, but how is a Michigan team-that's currently not even qualified to go-is getting more ESPN pub about going and there is no love for a 2nd BCS Big 12 team?
:facepalm:
its michigan dude.
its michigan.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: That_Guy on December 01, 2011, 10:16:10 PM
eff Michigan.... I HATE THEM  :chainsaw: :curse:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: dontfeedthebear on December 01, 2011, 10:22:38 PM
The whole BCS makes me want to  :bang:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: CHONGS on December 01, 2011, 10:23:48 PM
*a well placed source tells me that the BCS might just benefit the CATS a great deal this year....
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: dontfeedthebear on December 01, 2011, 10:25:51 PM
*a well placed source tells me that the BCS might just benefit the CATS a great deal this year....

Easily or does a lot of stuff have to happen this weekend?
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: CHONGS on December 01, 2011, 10:29:58 PM
*a well placed source tells me that the BCS might just benefit the CATS a great deal this year....

Easily or does a lot of stuff have to happen this weekend?
it comes down to two games....
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: pike on December 01, 2011, 10:30:29 PM
The whole BCS makes me want to  :bang:

It really is Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!). Hope they do end up scrapping it.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on December 01, 2011, 10:33:05 PM
*a well placed source tells me that the BCS might just benefit the CATS a great deal this year....

Easily or does a lot of stuff have to happen this weekend?
it comes down to two games....

Yes it does chings, yes it does
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: dontfeedthebear on December 01, 2011, 10:39:18 PM
*a well placed source tells me that the BCS might just benefit the CATS a great deal this year....

Easily or does a lot of stuff have to happen this weekend?
it comes down to two games....

I imagine Bedlam is one....the other  :dunno:
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Panjandrum on December 01, 2011, 10:41:48 PM
*a well placed source tells me that the BCS might just benefit the CATS a great deal this year....

Easily or does a lot of stuff have to happen this weekend?
it comes down to two games....

I imagine Bedlam is one....the other  :dunno:

Wisconsin/Michigan St.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: Stevesie60 on December 01, 2011, 10:43:02 PM
Just a hunch here, but I assume we have to win our game to make it to the Sugar Bowl.
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: kim carnes on December 01, 2011, 10:44:59 PM
Georgia/LSU and MichSt/Wisky
Title: Re: BCS Odds
Post by: scottwildcat on December 01, 2011, 11:22:39 PM
baylor beats UT and jumps Michigan in the BCS keeping them out of the top 14  :bait: