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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on September 28, 2011, 09:56:04 PM

Title: ChiRP Ranking
Post by: CHONGS on September 28, 2011, 09:56:04 PM
Oh boy!  Finally a ranking system that takes into account potential as well results (in the term of wins and losses) AND adjusts for strength of schedule and tempo adjusted!

Behold the Chingon Real Power (ChiRP) Rankings (yes rankings, a rank here is a ranking earned!)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
RankingTeamOff PowerDef PowerPower SurplusPower win %
1Wisconsin40.7.11.8.28.9.1.0.
2Stanford41.0.13.7.27.3.0.974.
3Alabama38.0.10.9.27.1.0.971.
4Florida37.5.14.1.23.4.0.909.
5LSU36.3.13.2.23.1.0.905.
6Georgia Tech46.9.24.5.22.4.0.894.
7South Florida40.3.18.6.21.7.0.882.
8Oklahoma State46.4.27.6.18.8.0.833.
9Michigan32.9.14.7.18.1.0.822.
10Virginia Tech30.5.13.4.17.2.0.806.
11Oregon46.7.25.1.21.6.0.797.
12Illinois30.2.14.1.16.1.0.788.
13Cincinnati44.1.23.3.20.7.0.782.
14Nebraska38.0.22.4.15.6.0.780.
15Baylor44.1.29.1.15.1.0.772.
16Oklahoma33.3.19.2.14.1.0.756.
17Boise State32.6.19.7.12.9.0.736.
18South Carolina37.3.24.7.12.6.0.731.
19Texas Tech37.0.25.4.11.6.0.714.
20Temple28.6.12.6.16.0.0.704.
21TCU39.4.24.3.15.1.0.689.
22Texas A&M33.7.18.7.15.0.0.687.
23Texas27.9.19.1.8.85.0.669.
24Clemson33.7.25.1.8.60.0.665.
25Arkansas34.5.21.5.13.0.0.654.
38Kansas State18.0.15.3.2.70.0.567.
49Missouri33.2.23.4.9.78.0.517.
63Iowa State24.2.30.3.-6.14.0.420.
84Kansas29.2.43.6.-14.4.0.200.

Off Power is the average number of points that team would score against an average team.  Def Power is the avg number of points allowed.   You can use this ranking system to predict games as well by using the Power win %. 

Recall that the prob of team A "winning" is (I put "winning" in quotes because this is really a measure of which team will assert its will when it comes to pace, but closely related to the probability A will beat B as well)

ProbWinA =  (%winA - %winA*%winB)/(%winA+%winB-2*%winA*%winB)
ProbWinB = ProbWinA-1


From here the predicted score

PointsA = (ProbWinA*OffPowerA + ProbWinB*DefPowerB)
PointsB = (ProbWinB*OffPowerB + ProbWinA*DefPowerA)
Title: Re: ChiRP Ranking
Post by: DQ12 on September 28, 2011, 10:05:59 PM
 :lol:

These get better every week.
Title: Re: ChiRP Ranking
Post by: wetwillie on September 28, 2011, 10:30:24 PM
Really starting to polish the turd, grats.
Title: Re: ChiRP Ranking
Post by: Trim on September 28, 2011, 10:38:24 PM
http://vsusports.tumblr.com/post/10783016439/heer-is-my-rankings-for-college-football-after-4

Quote
13 Kansas State 73.814
Title: Re: ChiRP Ranking
Post by: Stevesie60 on September 28, 2011, 10:41:47 PM
Quote from: Trim on September 28, 2011, 10:38:24 PM
http://vsusports.tumblr.com/post/10783016439/heer-is-my-rankings-for-college-football-after-4

Quote
13 Kansas State 73.814


Suck it, Nubb!!
Title: Re: ChiRP Ranking
Post by: CHONGS on September 28, 2011, 11:25:10 PM
Srry guys ranking is legit,  the method to predict scores is not.   Will correct tomorrow.
Title: Re: Re: ChiRP Ranking
Post by: steve dave on September 29, 2011, 06:15:05 AM
OH eff OFF CHINGON
Title: Re: ChiRP Ranking
Post by: Cire on September 29, 2011, 06:44:28 AM
wish kenpom did this for fball
Title: Re: ChiRP Ranking
Post by: Cire on September 29, 2011, 06:45:41 AM
sagarin's got it a coinflip fwiw