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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on September 23, 2011, 11:04:35 PM

Title: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: CHONGS on September 23, 2011, 11:04:35 PM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
RankTeamAdj OEAdj DEAdj OE-DEWin %
1Stanford0.6380480.2224170.4156311.
2Georgia Tech0.7716060.3569430.4146630.998999
3Wisconsin0.5758260.1682120.4076140.991714
4Michigan0.6524650.2586970.3937680.977406
5LSU0.4882640.1688670.3193970.900549
6Alabama0.511630.2017140.3099150.89075
7Oregon0.6299030.3429120.2869910.86706
8Illinois0.4761160.1938280.2822880.8622
9Central Florida0.4703410.1883380.2820030.861905
10Texas A&M0.4997390.2201220.2796170.859439
11Baylor0.6926940.4290670.2636270.842914
12Texas Tech0.550380.289210.2611710.840376
13Florida International0.4960980.2401890.255910.834939
14Auburn0.5872360.3558030.2314330.809644
15Florida State0.4887830.2587120.2300710.808237
16North Carolina0.4992530.2734310.2258220.803846
17Vanderbilt0.4908230.2732320.2175910.795339
18Florida0.4673390.2516580.2156820.793366
19Washington State0.5663990.3539350.2124640.790041
20Virginia Tech0.4200220.2078660.2121550.789722
21Cincinnati0.5984880.3892390.2092490.786719
22Oklahoma State0.5738170.3701040.2037120.780997
23Nebraska0.5553510.3587720.1965790.773625
24Arkansas0.4967770.3005770.19620.773233
25South Florida0.4541750.2794530.1747220.751037
27Missouri0.4676150.2988970.1687180.744833
35Oklahoma0.3792050.2455620.1336430.708585
41Texas0.4319930.3214560.1105370.684707
63Kansas State0.1848570.188343-0.003485950.566872
69Miami0.3084350.33635-0.02791540.541626
75Iowa State0.3321060.390601-0.05849540.510024
100Kansas0.4216910.617782-0.1960910.367828

Strength of schedule has been included, but as you can see it's still a bit too early to converge on a true measure.  Remember this is a snapshot of right now, based purely on statistics.
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: hemmy on September 23, 2011, 11:12:33 PM
Looks like a cold stone lock :D
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: CHONGS on September 23, 2011, 11:18:45 PM
Quote from: hemmy on September 23, 2011, 11:12:33 PM
Looks like a cold stone lock :D
:woot:
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: DQ12 on September 23, 2011, 11:45:13 PM
Pffttt..Georgia Tech at number 2.

Chingdex likes the YPC.
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: wetwillie on September 24, 2011, 12:34:20 AM
would love some statistical breakdown for gambling purposes
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: MixBerryCrunch on September 24, 2011, 01:51:12 AM
Dude, if you really rank all 119 teams then mad props cause that has to take a crap ton of time.
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: Houcat on September 24, 2011, 02:56:22 AM
Wasn't a lock for Central Florida on Friday
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: kstater on September 24, 2011, 06:47:15 AM
Trying to imagine how bad those 19 teams behind little brother must be.
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: Fldermaus on September 24, 2011, 07:53:39 AM
The fans demand explanation:  Ga Tech (3-0) plays UNC (3-0) -- GaTech has a .99 win% and UNC has 80%?  Is this from week 3 or 4?  Is this predictive or descriptive?   :dunno:     
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: steve dave on September 24, 2011, 07:54:49 AM
OH eff OFF CHINGON YOU DUMBSHIT
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: CHONGS on September 24, 2011, 10:10:42 AM
yeah I found some small bugs in the system.  that's what I get for trying to get it up and running right before going to bed.  oh well I think it is fixed now, and it doesn't really affect the top 15 teams or so.

Quote from: Fldermaus on September 24, 2011, 07:53:39 AM
The fans demand explanation:  Ga Tech (3-0) plays UNC (3-0) -- GaTech has a .99 win% and UNC has 80%?  Is this from week 3 or 4?  Is this predictive or descriptive?   :dunno:     

This includes all stats through week 3.  The win% is based on playing an average opponent.  So GaTech's .99 win% means that at the end of the season (assuming from week 4 on they play an average opponent AND they maintain their current efficiency) they will win 99% of thier games.

Obviously GaTech will not play average opponents the rest of way, but this stat gives us a way to measure the strength of each team without reference to future unplayed opponents while still including the strength of the teams they have.  So, by itself each teams win% is not incredibly useful other than to rank teams. 

BUT if you take the win% of team A and win% of team B you can predict the probability of team A beating team B:

   P(W) = (A - A * B) / (A + B - 2*A*B),

A is the win% for team A and B is the win% for team B.  So for GaTech vs UNC, as of this week, the probability of GaTech beating UNC is

  P = (0.998999-0.998999*0.803846)/(0.998999+0.803846-2*0.998999*0.803846) = 0.995911

Of course here is where human thought has to come into play.  As previously mentioned, the SOS component in this system has not converged yet due to the lack of meaningful games played.  As a result teams like GaTech who racked up huge efficiency numbers against KU is overrated quite a bit, and while WE know KU is not very good (in fact pretty terrible), the SOS can't yet compensate for the tremendous numbers GaTech put up.

So I would only take this (somewhat) seriously at this point in the season if I knew the two teams I was comparing had reasonably similar strengths of schedule up to this point in time and didn't have some crazy fluke game stats.
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: steve dave on September 24, 2011, 10:13:46 AM
THAT'S A BUNCH OF HORSESHIT CHINGON AND YOU KNOW IT
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: hatingfrancisco on September 24, 2011, 10:46:15 AM
Quote from: steve dave on September 24, 2011, 10:13:46 AM
THAT'S A BUNCH OF HORSESHIT CHINGON AND YOU KNOW IT

 :eek:
 :lol:
Title: Re: ChingDEX Week 03
Post by: theymightbegiants on September 24, 2011, 11:51:03 AM
by far the biggest waist of time on this website and its not even close.... until week 9 lol :ksu:s