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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: mcmwcat on February 21, 2011, 01:52:56 PM

Title: kenpom 4 factors
Post by: mcmwcat on February 21, 2011, 01:52:56 PM

i'm having an issue w/ FTR.  this factor seems to be dependent on TO% and OR%.

higher TO% -> less FGA -> higher FTR

higher OR% -> more FGA -> lower FTR

shouldn't the 4 factors be independent?  shouldn't the FTR factor be more like FTA%?

edit:  not thinking here.  of course it's still independent.  whether or not you get an extra possession from an OR or lose one from a TO you still have a chance to shoot FT vs FG.

Title: Re: kenpom 4 factors
Post by: kougar24 on February 21, 2011, 02:07:45 PM

Nice save.

Title: Re: kenpom 4 factors
Post by: kso_FAN on February 21, 2011, 07:50:42 PM

Quote from: mcmwcat on February 21, 2011, 01:52:56 PM

i'm having an issue w/ FTR.  this factor seems to be dependent on TO% and OR%.

higher TO% -> less FGA -> higher FTR

higher OR% -> more FGA -> lower FTR

shouldn't the 4 factors be independent?  shouldn't the FTR factor be more like FTA%?

edit:  not thinking here.  of course it's still independent.  whether or not you get an extra possession from an OR or lose one from a TO you still have a chance to shoot FT vs FG.

IMO they are all good independent measures, but no doubt they have some dependence on each other. All of the scenarios you mention could be true, and I'd say one reason our FT rate is lower this year is b/c we have a higher TO% than last year. It makes sense that a wasted possession would mean a wasted opportunity to get a FTA or a FGA and thus also an OR.

And I'm not sure what you meant by "shouldn't the FTR factor be more like FTA%?" b/c essentially that is what it is.

Title: Re: kenpom 4 factors
Post by: mcmwcat on February 21, 2011, 10:35:29 PM

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 21, 2011, 07:50:42 PM

Quote from: mcmwcat on February 21, 2011, 01:52:56 PM

i'm having an issue w/ FTR.  this factor seems to be dependent on TO% and OR%.

higher TO% -> less FGA -> higher FTR

higher OR% -> more FGA -> lower FTR

shouldn't the 4 factors be independent?  shouldn't the FTR factor be more like FTA%?

edit:  not thinking here.  of course it's still independent.  whether or not you get an extra possession from an OR or lose one from a TO you still have a chance to shoot FT vs FG.

IMO they are all good independent measures, but no doubt they have some dependence on each other. All of the scenarios you mention could be true, and I'd say one reason our FT rate is lower this year is b/c we have a higher TO% than last year. It makes sense that a wasted possession would mean a wasted opportunity to get a FTA or a FGA and thus also an OR.

And I'm not sure what you meant by "shouldn't the FTR factor be more like FTA%?" b/c essentially that is what it is.

FTA% would be FTA/possessions.  FTR is FTA/FGA.  anyway i already declared my dumb-assery in my edit.

Title: Re: kenpom 4 factors
Post by: kso_FAN on February 21, 2011, 10:42:42 PM

OR% is not OR/possessions. Just sayin'.

Title: Re: kenpom 4 factors
Post by: mcmwcat on February 22, 2011, 08:22:53 AM

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 21, 2011, 10:42:42 PM

OR% is not OR/possessions. Just sayin'.

yeah.  but oppy's for OR happen only after a FGM(iss).  oppy's for FT happen every possession. 

i still like FTR because you can only have FTA or FGA if you don't TO.

yes i've come full circle.

Title: Re: kenpom 4 factors
Post by: kso_FAN on February 22, 2011, 08:27:25 AM

Quote from: mcmwcat on February 22, 2011, 08:22:53 AM

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 21, 2011, 10:42:42 PM

OR% is not OR/possessions. Just sayin'.

yeah.  but oppy's for OR happen only after a FGM.  oppy's for FT happen every possession. 

i still like FTR because you can only have FTA or FGA if you don't TO.

yes i've come full circle.

 :cheers: