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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: fatty fat fat on February 16, 2011, 12:54:34 AM

Title: i'm pretty excited
Post by: fatty fat fat on February 16, 2011, 12:54:34 AM
what are the chances we go 9-7? below fifty or above? and if we go 9-7, are we flirting w/a 7 seed?  :excited:

Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: CatsFan_58 on February 16, 2011, 01:01:54 AM
I am trying to remain cautiously optimistic... It is a definite possibility, although, lincoln scares me.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: Pete on February 16, 2011, 01:03:36 AM
Would LOVE a 7 seed.  Seven seeds are sexy...prolly pick one every year to "make noise" in the tourney, ya know?


I know that this is pretty unpopular (not cool) around here, but I don't think we beat Texas in Austin.  Tossing that game out, I'd say we at least have a 50% chance of winning out.  At NU is iffy, and Mizzou at home will be tough.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: nicname on February 16, 2011, 01:06:27 AM
kenpom has us at 50% to get 8-8, 30% for 7-9, and 20% for 9-7. 
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: 0.42 on February 16, 2011, 01:07:03 AM
I don't think we beat Texas in Austin.

THIS IS CTR


YOUR ARGUMENT IS INVALID
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: pike on February 16, 2011, 01:07:32 AM
I'd feel really good if we can win our next 3. Then a split with UT/ISU should have us in, right? Especially if more team's burst the bubble as MSU may have tonight
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: fatty fat fat on February 16, 2011, 01:24:15 AM
good chat guys. fun to be excited again!
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: Dub on February 16, 2011, 02:26:17 AM
kenpom has us at 50% to get 8-8, 30% for 7-9, and 20% for 9-7. 

kenpom had us losing to KU
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: nicname on February 16, 2011, 02:31:13 AM
kenpom has us at 50% to get 8-8, 30% for 7-9, and 20% for 9-7. 

kenpom had us losing to KU

he had us losing to KU 80% of the time.  20% happens.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: jdagg2003 on February 16, 2011, 02:35:59 AM
At first I was like  :dunno: everybody wins sometimes, but the more time that passes since the game the more  :ksu: :ksu: :excited: :excited: :jerk: :jerk: :ksu: :ksu: I get.
 I don't think it's healthy
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: KITNfury on February 16, 2011, 10:17:42 AM
kenpom has us at 50% to get 8-8, 30% for 7-9, and 20% for 9-7. 
Sounds like a 70% chance to make tourney, boi  :party:
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: kso_FAN on February 16, 2011, 10:21:11 AM
Would LOVE a 7 seed.  Seven seeds are sexy...prolly pick one every year to "make noise" in the tourney, ya know?


I know that this is pretty unpopular (not cool) around here, but I don't think we beat Texas in Austin.  Tossing that game out, I'd say we at least have a 50% chance of winning out.  At NU is iffy, and Mizzou at home will be tough.

Good post by HBBIQ Pete. I'm guessing a split with MU/@NU, but its possible to win both.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on February 16, 2011, 10:25:50 AM
kenpom has us at 50% to get 8-8, 30% for 7-9, and 20% for 9-7. 
Sounds like a 70% chance to make tourney, boi  :party:

Better than 70 when you consider the Big 12 tourney games.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: kougar24 on February 16, 2011, 12:22:52 PM
kenpom has us at 50% to get 8-8, 30% for 7-9, and 20% for 9-7. 
Sounds like a 70% chance to make tourney, boi  :party:

Better than 70 when you consider the Big 12 tourney games.

Hmm....I just don't see us getting in at 7-9, even if we win 3 tourney games. Hard to imagine.

On the other hand, I think we're an absolute lock at 8-8, with our RPI/SOS.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: bradleigh on February 16, 2011, 12:36:06 PM
kenpom has us at 50% to get 8-8, 30% for 7-9, and 20% for 9-7. 

kenpom had us losing to KU
:runaway: :runaway: :runaway:

10-6?
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: Skipper44 on February 16, 2011, 12:56:52 PM
We may be favored by Vegas in all but the Texas game, depending on how bad Texas beats NU on Saturday. 
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: Cire on February 16, 2011, 01:00:28 PM
didn't FSU get in at 7-9 one of the years that we didn't at 10-6/9-7?
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: michigancat on February 16, 2011, 01:06:23 PM
kenpom has us at 50% to get 8-8, 30% for 7-9, and 20% for 9-7. 
Sounds like a 70% chance to make tourney, boi  :party:

Better than 70 when you consider the Big 12 tourney games.

Hmm....I just don't see us getting in at 7-9, even if we win 3 tourney games. Hard to imagine.

On the other hand, I think we're an absolute lock at 8-8, with our RPI/SOS.

those two statements contradict each other. 7-9 +3 wins in the Big 12 tourney would most likely give us 2 wins against MU or aTm and KU or UT. That is more of a lock than 8-8.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: kso_FAN on February 16, 2011, 01:38:28 PM
didn't FSU get in at 7-9 one of the years that we didn't at 10-6/9-7?

I don't think so; I believe you are talking about the 07 FSU team and they went to the NIT.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: catzacker on February 16, 2011, 01:53:26 PM
IMO, our chances:

7-9 40%
8-8 40%
9-7 20%

imo, i think we put too much into the big 12 tourney.  it seems like every time they talk to the committee, teams are basically in/out before the tourney starts, and only a run to the conf championship game (either wining it or just getting to it) makes any difference.  so...at 8-8, I don't think we're in.  we'd probably have to win at least 2 games in the conf tourney to make any difference (and that wouldn't get us to the conf championship game).
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: kougar24 on February 16, 2011, 01:58:04 PM
kenpom has us at 50% to get 8-8, 30% for 7-9, and 20% for 9-7. 
Sounds like a 70% chance to make tourney, boi  :party:

Better than 70 when you consider the Big 12 tourney games.

Hmm....I just don't see us getting in at 7-9, even if we win 3 tourney games. Hard to imagine.

On the other hand, I think we're an absolute lock at 8-8, with our RPI/SOS.

those two statements contradict each other. 7-9 +3 wins in the Big 12 tourney would most likely give us 2 wins against MU or aTm and KU or UT. That is more of a lock than 8-8.

But we've seen the committee disregard tourney games in the past. I certainly don't think they carry as much weight as reg season games, regardless of the opponent.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: michigancat on February 16, 2011, 02:10:27 PM
kenpom has us at 50% to get 8-8, 30% for 7-9, and 20% for 9-7. 
Sounds like a 70% chance to make tourney, boi  :party:

Better than 70 when you consider the Big 12 tourney games.

Hmm....I just don't see us getting in at 7-9, even if we win 3 tourney games. Hard to imagine.

On the other hand, I think we're an absolute lock at 8-8, with our RPI/SOS.

those two statements contradict each other. 7-9 +3 wins in the Big 12 tourney would most likely give us 2 wins against MU or aTm and KU or UT. That is more of a lock than 8-8.

But we've seen the committee disregard tourney games in the past. I certainly don't think they carry as much weight as reg season games, regardless of the opponent.

You didn't read what I posted, did you? This isn't 2007.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: JVKCcat on February 16, 2011, 02:13:30 PM
didn't FSU get in at 7-9 one of the years that we didn't at 10-6/9-7?

I don't think so; I believe you are talking about the 07 FSU team and they went to the NIT.


I think you are talking about us going 10-6 two years ago and T Tech getting in at 9-7 ahead of us despite beating them in the b12 tourney.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: sys on February 16, 2011, 02:34:25 PM
we'd probably have to win at least 2 games in the conf tourney to make any difference (and that wouldn't get us to the conf championship game).

if it comes down to big 12 tourney games, it will almost certainly take 2 wins to move the needle (_fan's four seed projection aside).  kstate appears highly likely to match against tech or isu in their first round game, which are opponents that can only hurt you, beating them is meaningless.


lots of bubble impacting games going tonight.  it's nice to be back in bubble position, where you'll have a rooting interest in a dozen or more games on wed and sat.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: kso_FAN on February 16, 2011, 02:40:07 PM
Note: please do not compare this year's team to the 07/09 versions that didn't make it. Much different resumes and bubbles to compare. 
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: bigwillie20 on February 16, 2011, 02:42:10 PM
Am I alone in my thoughts that 8-8 probably gets us in and we're a lock at 9-7  :dunno:
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: EllToPay on February 16, 2011, 02:46:10 PM
Please list teams to root for tonight.

tia.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: kougar24 on February 16, 2011, 02:51:01 PM
Note: please do not compare this year's team to the 07/09 versions that didn't make it. Much different resumes and bubbles to compare. 

But the pain is still fresh.

Just sayin', I wouldn't feel comfortable at all if we went 7-9 and lost in the championship game in KC, whereas I'd be supremely confident if we went 8-8 and lost our first game in KC. :dunno:

Maybe it's just me.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: kso_FAN on February 16, 2011, 03:05:19 PM
Please list teams to root for tonight.

tia.

Just follow sys' rule of bubble rooting interest. Its pretty simple.

Quote from: sys
always root for any team with no chance to make the tourney or no chance to miss. 

in matchups between two bubbles, root for high probability bubbles, against low probability bubbles.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: catzacker on February 16, 2011, 03:06:19 PM
Note: please do not compare this year's team to the 07/09 versions that didn't make it. Much different resumes and bubbles to compare. 

this is true.  the field isn't as strong and there's 3 more spots.  but with that mediocrity/parity it's more likely for the "tourney teams" in mid majors (or even in power conferences like the pac 10 or sec) that will probably stumble in the conf tournaments and allow another spot to get taken - wac, horizon, wcc, a10, mt west.  
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: sys on February 16, 2011, 03:08:51 PM
Am I alone in my thoughts that 8-8 probably gets us in and we're a lock at 9-7  :dunno:

i agree, with the caveat that kstate needs to have mu or texas be one of those 8 wins.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: kso_FAN on February 16, 2011, 03:09:48 PM
Note: please do not compare this year's team to the 07/09 versions that didn't make it. Much different resumes and bubbles to compare.  

this is true.  the field isn't as strong and there's 3 more spots.  but with that mediocrity/parity it's more likely for the "tourney teams" in mid majors (or even in power conferences like the pac 10 or sec) that will probably stumble in the conf tournaments and allow another spot to get taken - wac, horizon, wcc, a10, mt west.  

Yes.

And I think our fans forget about how terrible our SOS was those seasons, both around #100. This year around #10.

But we also have one of the oddest sets of lacking non-quality wins to go along with also lacking non-bad losses that I can remember.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: Underdog Wildcat on February 16, 2011, 03:10:03 PM
didn't FSU get in at 7-9 one of the years that we didn't at 10-6/9-7?

Arkansas went 7-9 in 06-07 and made it that year(still didn't save Heath's job). I read an article where it said Fla St went 6 and freakin 10 in 98 and still got in. Not unprecedented for "power conference" teams to get in w/sub 500 conf records, but pretty rare.

There's probably a comprehensive list of sub 500 conf teams who made it floating around the interwebs, someone with a great deal of persistence and motivation could hunt that down. :users:
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: jtksu on February 16, 2011, 03:11:29 PM
Seems like the Big East has sub .500 teams qualify pretty regularly.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: kso_FAN on February 16, 2011, 03:15:55 PM
Arkansas went 7-9 in 06-07 and made it that year(still didn't save Heath's job). I read an article where it said Fla St went 6 and freakin 10 in 98 and still got in. Not unprecedented for "power conference" teams to get in w/sub 500 conf records, but pretty rare.

Won 3 games in the SEC Tourney.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: Underdog Wildcat on February 16, 2011, 03:23:58 PM
Arkansas went 7-9 in 06-07 and made it that year(still didn't save Heath's job). I read an article where it said Fla St went 6 and freakin 10 in 98 and still got in. Not unprecedented for "power conference" teams to get in w/sub 500 conf records, but pretty rare.

Won 3 games in the SEC Tourney.

We can do it, forget the bye  :emawkid:

In reality, our bubble probably bursts if we don't get to at least 8-8.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: wetwillie on February 16, 2011, 04:20:20 PM
Am I alone in my thoughts that 8-8 probably gets us in and we're a lock at 9-7  :dunno:

i agree, with the caveat that kstate needs to have mu or texas be one of those 8 wins.

I've already penciled in jake for a 50+ point performance against mizzou, my super bowl goes through lincoln this year.
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: sys on February 17, 2011, 12:05:16 AM
st mary's (30) just lost to san diego (301).  probably not enough to knock them out of an at large if they lose in their conf tourney.  but they're now in a position where they really don't want to lose again (another reg season loss plus a conf tourney loss).  they still have usu, gonzaga and portland at home; all good teams.

pretty great v low probability result.


http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=St.%20Mary%27s
Title: Re: i'm pretty excited
Post by: CHONGS on February 17, 2011, 12:14:25 AM
Magic # is 4.