https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/americanhealthcareact_0.pdfThose provisions, taken together, would reduce projected deficits by $935 billion over the 2017-2026 period. Other provisions would increase deficits by $599 billion, mostly by reducing tax revenues. All told, deficits would be reduced by $337 billion over that period, CBO and JCT estimate.
That reduction would stem primarily from lower enrollment throughout the period, culminating in 14 million fewer Medicaid enrollees by 2026, a reduction of about 17 percent relative to the number under current law.
According to CBO’s estimates, that effect would be modest in the near term, but by 2026, on an average annual basis, 5 million fewer people would be enrolled in Medicaid than would have been enrolled under current law.
Roughly 2 million fewer people, on net, would enroll in employment-based coverage in 2020, and that number would grow to roughly 7 million in 2026. Part of that net reduction in employment-based coverage would occur because fewer employees would take up the offer of such coverage in the absence of the individual mandate penalties.
The legislation would tend to increase average premiums in the nongroup market prior to 2020 and lower average premiums thereafter, relative to the outcomes under current law.
Later, following additional changes to subsidies for insurance purchased in the nongroup market and to the Medicaid program, the increase in the number of uninsured people relative to the number under current law would rise to 21 million in 2020 and then to 24 million in 2026.