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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Jerome Tang Coaches Kansas State Basketball => Topic started by: sys on December 03, 2016, 09:06:42 PM
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that's the goal. i'll get around to updating later in the year.
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Tonight was a very kenpom friendly game, I'm guessing it will be good for moving up a few spots. SLU is rated badly, but we beat them really badly at their place. I love some great kenpom padding.
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kenpom already updated kstate to 33rd with a 9-9 conference record. which is really close to projecting 30, no tourney. although 9-9 may be good enough to get in. still, very exciting.
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(https://m.popkey.co/3a81df/rbZYW.gif)
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kenpom already updated kstate to 33rd with a 9-9 conference record. which is really close to projecting 30, no tourney. although 9-9 may be good enough to get in. still, very exciting.
9-9 in conference with a 33 kenpom gets us in easily, if the Big 12 is the number one conference that isn't even on the bubble.
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9-9 with our non con 100% is on the bubble
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9-9 in conference with a 33 kenpom gets us in easily, if the Big 12 is the number one conference that isn't even on the bubble.
i don't think the committee uses kenpom much (they shouldn't). they've shown in the past that they do not like to reward teams that schedule poorly, so kstate likely won't get the benefit of the doubt, if it's close.
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south Carolina last year
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9-9 with our non con 100% is on the bubble
i don't think the committee uses kenpom much (they shouldn't). they've shown in the past that they do not like to reward teams that schedule poorly, so kstate likely won't get the benefit of the doubt, if it's close.
south Carolina last year
1. Scott, why did you drop two out of the three criteria I listed.
2. sys, they started using it last year along with other metrics.
3. 'clams, USC played in a trash conference and their kenpom and RPI were really high.
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Over the past five years, 9-9 entailed finishing 5th through 7th place in the conference - 7th only once. 5th or 6th place in the best conference seems sufficient to get in.
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i wouldn't have made it a thread if it was going to be easy.
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Over the past five years, 9-9 entailed finishing 5th through 7th place in the conference - 7th only once. 5th or 6th place in the best conference seems sufficient to get in.
It will be bubbly. Remember 10-6. We are a better conference now, but at the same time I still think the resume matters most.
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2003-2004 FSU was ranked 27th in kenpom and didn't make the tournament. But it isn't going to be easy to match or beat. Basically have to lose a bunch of really close games on the road in conference play.
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Over the past five years, 9-9 entailed finishing 5th through 7th place in the conference - 7th only once. 5th or 6th place in the best conference seems sufficient to get in.
It will be bubbly. Remember 10-6. We are a better conference now, but at the same time I still think the resume matters most.
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Significantly better, the Big 12 was the #4 conference that season and we have added three more at large spots since then.
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This whole conversation is actually quite asinine. The conversation around a team who finishes 4th in the best conference with a 20-11 record, a kenpom in the 30s, and 5 top 50 wins is actually whether or not this team gets a single digit seed, not if they're getting in.
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We're top 30 in kenpom!?!? :Woohoo: :love:
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The conversation around a team who finishes 4th in the best conference with a 20-11 record, a kenpom in the 30s, and 5 top 50 wins is actually whether or not this team gets a single digit seed, not if they're getting in.
that's what would make it such an amazing achievement.
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We're top 30 in kenpom!?!? :Woohoo: :love:
not yet, check in if we beat pva&m by 40 or so.
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I don't know anything about how this would work, but I'm extremely happy that sys has found his thing to track this season, and I hope the 'cats can pull it off.
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We're top 30 in kenpom!?!? :Woohoo: :love:
not yet, check in if we beat pva&m by 40 or so.
34. Kansas State
35. South Carolina
:Woot:
http://kenpom.com
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I don't know anything about how this would work, but I'm extremely happy that sys has found his thing to track this season, and I hope the 'cats can pull it off.
i concur. this is something we can all get behind. maybe the only thing.
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We beat KU we are in to the tourney no doubt
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if kstate can't thirty, no tourney, perhaps tech can do it. they've somehow managed to top us so far, getting to 31st against a 340th sos.
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I am PRAYING for a 4-14 conference record. Then I'll ask, "Why fire him now?" Why? Why is year number 5 of consecutive worsening league records finally ENOUGH? I really want to know.
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30 no tourney would be v funny, but would give ammo to brucurriexcuses.
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if kstate can't thirty, no tourney, perhaps tech can do it. they've somehow managed to top us so far, getting to 31st against a 340th sos.
I don't think Tech can maintain. I really don't believe in Evans or Livingston that much. They also have struggle against both top 100ish kenpom teams they have played.
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30 no tourney would be v funny, but would give ammo to brucurriexcuses.
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Making the tourney as a bubble is far worse than having a top 30 kenpom team in the long run.
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I don't think Tech can maintain. I really don't believe in Evans or Livingston that much. They also have struggle against both top 100ish kenpom teams they have played.
i have to admit that looking at their schedule and mov's it doesn't jump out to me how they achieved 31. i guess kenpom really liked that utah state win.
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I don't think Tech can maintain. I really don't believe in Evans or Livingston that much. They also have struggle against both top 100ish kenpom teams they have played.
i have to admit that looking at their schedule and mov's it doesn't jump out to me how they achieved 31. i guess kenpom really liked that utah state win.
Basally a perfect kenpom score for them. Beating UTSA by 37, North Texas by 27 and Idaho St. 31 were big boost for them.
Minus Utah St. their biggest strength is beating up on the littlest of guys.
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Pretty meh game for ken. Bumped to 33 from 35 at pregame.
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tech got to 30 though. it's really vexing that even in this, we are being outdone.
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like, oh you're kenpom 33 and no good wins at all. that's cute, kstate, we're kenpom 30 with no good wins and a bad loss, so maybe shut the eff up already, you fat loser.
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like, oh you're kenpom 33 and no good wins at all. that's cute, kstate, we're kenpom 30 with no good wins and a bad loss, so maybe shut the eff up already, you fat loser.
Between, KSU, Tech and ISU we are bound to see a kenpom collapse.
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Between, KSU, Tech and ISU we are bound to see a kenpom collapse.
i hadn't realized isu's resume was still so incomplete. the big 12 has gone from looking (if you squinted really hard) like a gang of ten to a big three and little seven. tournament bids for the seven may come down to how many big three wins they can gather.
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Yet, we are kenpom's top league again and everyone is in the top 75. Odd.
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Yet, we are kenpom's top league again and everyone is in the top 75. Odd.
there aren't any bad teams.
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kenpom a/b games are probably a poor substitute for the rpi binned games, but they're easy to look up and arguably a better proxy at the stage of the season than using the current rpi would be.
ku: 1-1 a, 1-0 b
wvu: 1-0 a, 1-1 b
bu: 5-0 a, 0-0 b
isu: 1-3 a, 0-0 b
tech: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ksu: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ou: 1-2 a, 0-1 b
osu: 0-2 a, 3-0 b
tcu: 0-1 a, 1-0 b
ut: 0-2 a, 0-2 b
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isu: 1-3 a, 0-0 b
tech: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ksu: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ou: 1-2 a, 0-1 b
osu: 0-2 a, 3-0 b
tcu: 0-1 a, 1-0 b
ut: 0-2 a, 0-2 b
Techs and TCUs B games are a joke, neutral sites vs 98 and 97 respectfully. I am more lenient at KSU & OSU losses to Maryland(66). They have voodoo magic that has their kenpom luck ranking 8th. They won 3 games against better opponents by 1. It is extremely weird.
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isu: 1-3 a, 0-0 b
tech: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ksu: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ou: 1-2 a, 0-1 b
osu: 0-2 a, 3-0 b
tcu: 0-1 a, 1-0 b
ut: 0-2 a, 0-2 b
Techs and TCUs B games are a joke, neutral sites vs 98 and 97 respectfully. I am more lenient at KSU & OSU losses to Maryland(66). They have voodoo magic that has their kenpom luck ranking 8th. They won 3 games against better opponents by 1. It is extremely weird.
It's not weird, it's luck, and you seem to already recognize it.
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isu: 1-3 a, 0-0 b
tech: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ksu: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ou: 1-2 a, 0-1 b
osu: 0-2 a, 3-0 b
tcu: 0-1 a, 1-0 b
ut: 0-2 a, 0-2 b
Techs and TCUs B games are a joke, neutral sites vs 98 and 97 respectfully. I am more lenient at KSU & OSU losses to Maryland(66). They have voodoo magic that has their kenpom luck ranking 8th. They won 3 games against better opponents by 1. It is extremely weird.
It's not weird, it's luck, and you seem to already recognize it.
http://kenpom.com/blog/the-missing-1point-games/ (http://kenpom.com/blog/the-missing-1point-games/)
Should have gone into more detail.
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isu: 1-3 a, 0-0 b
tech: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ksu: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ou: 1-2 a, 0-1 b
osu: 0-2 a, 3-0 b
tcu: 0-1 a, 1-0 b
ut: 0-2 a, 0-2 b
Techs and TCUs B games are a joke, neutral sites vs 98 and 97 respectfully. I am more lenient at KSU & OSU losses to Maryland(66). They have voodoo magic that has their kenpom luck ranking 8th. They won 3 games against better opponents by 1. It is extremely weird.
It's not weird, it's luck, and you seem to already recognize it.
http://kenpom.com/blog/the-missing-1point-games/ (http://kenpom.com/blog/the-missing-1point-games/)
Should have gone into more detail.
oh, yeah, that's really interesting.
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isu: 1-3 a, 0-0 b
tech: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ksu: 0-0 a, 0-1 b
ou: 1-2 a, 0-1 b
osu: 0-2 a, 3-0 b
tcu: 0-1 a, 1-0 b
ut: 0-2 a, 0-2 b
Techs and TCUs B games are a joke, neutral sites vs 98 and 97 respectfully. I am more lenient at KSU & OSU losses to Maryland(66). They have voodoo magic that has their kenpom luck ranking 8th. They won 3 games against better opponents by 1. It is extremely weird.
It's not weird, it's luck, and you seem to already recognize it.
i can't speak to the Gtown and Poke wins but having Trimble seems to be a big part of it
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beating the crap out of csu should have been pleasing to kenpom, and it was, pushing the cats up to 31st. i thought we'd finally break 30, but no such luck. tech, those sonsofbitches, somehow moved up to 27th with a road win over richmond. isu peaks its head into 30, no tourney at 29th with one good win and 3 good losses.
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tech.
these fuckfaces are up to 26th.
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tech.
these fuckfaces are up to 26th.
Cats, Raiders, Frogs all 11-1. Probably has never happened before.
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tech.
these fuckfaces are up to 26th.
Cats, Raiders, Frogs all 11-1. Probably has never happened before.
Pre-big12 play and post-big12 play kenpom ratings are going to be V interesting.
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Logjam
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If the Big 12 has multiple 30NTs, does it diminish our accomplishment? Does being the highest ranked of multiple Big 12 30NTs matter?
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on the eve of the conference opener, kenpom has kstate at 30th and predicts an 8-10 record. tech is 26th with a 9-9 prediction. i really think one of these teams is going to get it done this year.
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on the eve of the conference opener, kenpom has kstate at 30th and predicts an 8-10 record. tech is 26th with a 9-9 prediction. i really think one of these teams is going to get it done this year.
We should coast past Texas tomorrow and I am excited for that.
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sys, post more as this goes along about what we should be rooting for in imminent games. Who should I want to win between KSU and Texas, and by what sort of spread?
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What a stupid rough ridin' question, purposefully rooting against KSU is beyond sad
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sys, post more as this goes along about what we should be rooting for in imminent games. Who should I want to win between KSU and Texas, and by what sort of spread?
kenpom has ksu winning by 10
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I root for sys. So the key is to root for as close to the kenpom prediction as possible, so that KSU stays at 30, and expect that continuing to do so will lead to KSU not making the tournament?
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I root for sys. So the key is to root for as close to the kenpom prediction as possible, so that KSU stays at 30, and expect that continuing to do so will lead to KSU not making the tournament?
That would make sense, but don't root too far ahead because the ratings are dynamic. Really a LHC Bill Snyder "one game at a time" mentality will see this through.
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I root for sys. So the key is to root for as close to the kenpom prediction as possible, so that KSU stays at 30, and expect that continuing to do so will lead to KSU not making the tournament?
That would make sense, but don't root too far ahead because the ratings are dynamic. Really a LHC Bill Snyder "one game at a time" mentality will see this through.
Right. That's why I need sys or you to continually make pregame posts so I know how to focus my root.
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What a stupid rough ridin' question, purposefully rooting against KSU is beyond sad
I agree. I have never figured out that kind of reasoning when it comes to your school.
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You guys just aren't edgy enough to pull it off.
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What a stupid rough ridin' question, purposefully rooting against KSU is beyond sad
I agree. I have never figured out that kind of reasoning when it comes to your school.
Need it explained, or just posting?
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What a stupid rough ridin' question, purposefully rooting against KSU is beyond sad
I agree. I have never figured out that kind of reasoning when it comes to your school.
Agree. Those guys are weirdo creeps. If you want to see some strange anamoly go to the freak show where you belong, freaks.
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Cheer for whomever you want for whatever reason you want to, who gives a crap. However, I'm guessing the number of power five schools who finished in the kp top 30 but didn't make the tournament can be counted on one hand with a few fingers to spare for sticking up your ass.
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Cheer for whomever you want for whatever reason you want to, who gives a crap. However, I'm guessing the number of power five schools who finished in the kp top 30 but didn't make the tournament can be counted on one hand with a few fingers to spare for sticking up your ass.
:lol: omg
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:love:
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This is the buttfinger thread.
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This game already started, in standard def. I'm rooting for ksu (sys) based on kk's guidance, but some of you people really make me want to root for texas.
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15 to zip run now for Kstate
Man, Shaka's team is really terrible....
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This is the buttfinger thread.
https://twitter.com/nfldraftinsider/status/815046277310386176
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Some people's brains are so hopelessly narrow
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sys, post more as this goes along about what we should be rooting for in imminent games. Who should I want to win between KSU and Texas, and by what sort of spread?
basically just lose to all the better teams and beat all the worse ones, winning by as much as possible and losing by as little as possible. so today was a little disappointing because tech was on track for a nice close loss but then started fouling and lost big, like dumbasses and kstate was on track for a nice big win but then only won by a little bit, like dumbasses.
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Damn. Oh well. As the late, great George Michael sang, you gotta have faith.
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My kenpom access (cough) is no longer valid (cough).
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My kenpom access (cough) is no longer valid (cough).
check pm's
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i might need to add tcu to the watch list. the big 12 has so many possibilities this year.
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If anybody wants to give me a kenpom login i would be happy to have it
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kenpom has the kstate game at 11 tonight, so anything under that will be a positive, obviously a win would be counterproductive, so it's a bit of a fine line. nothing like tech's wvu game though, which they're only favored to lose by 3. you don't want to see them risk getting a top 3 win this early in the season, so really any single digit loss would be fine. tcu has ou at home and would be well advised to run up the score. they're favored by 9.
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Everything is going to plan
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these are the kind of games you hope to look back on at the end of the season when you're trying to figure out how it happened.
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tech, what are you doing?
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tech, what are you doing?
Sad to watch a team throw in the towel in early january
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given a 2nd chance.
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well eff.
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T-Y for all of this, sys. Tonight was exhilarating.
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tech up to 26th, but shoots themselves in foot with an overtime win. kstate up to 31st after the loss. both teams hold kenpom predictions of 9-9. i'll be ceasing to update tcu for the foreseeable future as they barely scraped past ou, falling to 38th.
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T-Y for all of this, sys. Tonight was exhilarating.
if only tech could have threaded the needle.
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if i'm reading this right, ksu was 31 going into the texas game, after the close win dropped to 33. now after close loss @ ku, back up to 31. i guess blowing out the bad teams is just as important as losing close to good teams if we're going to kp30nt
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if i'm reading this right, ksu was 31 going into the texas game, after the close win dropped to 33. now after close loss @ ku, back up to 31. i guess blowing out the bad teams is just as important as losing close to good teams if we're going to kp30nt
Math
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Is it kp30nt or k30nt? I'd been using the latter.
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It's either 30NT or buttfingering.
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i prefer kp30nt
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if i'm reading this right, ksu was 31 going into the texas game, after the close win dropped to 33. now after close loss @ ku, back up to 31.
no one said it would be easy, there's a reason why only one team has been able to accomplish kp30nt in the last ten years (stat has not been fact checked). it's a credit to the team that they've set their sights on such a challenging goal.
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if i'm reading this right, ksu was 31 going into the texas game, after the close win dropped to 33. now after close loss @ ku, back up to 31.
no one said it would be easy, there's a reason why only one team has been able to accomplish kp30nt in the last ten years (stat has not been fact checked). it's a credit to the team that they've set their sights on such a challenging goal.
I think it has happened twice, but i don't want to go back over the data.
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It was common in the early to mid 00s, but only 2 since 07.
P5 kp30nts:
02 South Carolina #20
04 FSU #27
06 South Carolina #20
06 Michigan #26
06 Notre Dame #29
07 Miss State #26
07 Clemson #29
13 Baylor #28
13 Iowa #29
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It was common in the early to mid 00s, but only 2 since 07.
P5 kp30nts:
02 South Carolina #20
04 FSU #27
06 South Carolina #20
06 Michigan #26
06 Notre Dame #29
07 Miss State #26
07 Clemson #29
13 Baylor #28
13 Iowa #29
you have to look at pre-tourney rankings, not final ones.
for example in 2013, baylor was #38 and Iowa was #34 going into the tournament
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It was common in the early to mid 00s, but only 2 since 07.
P5 kp30nts:
02 South Carolina #20
04 FSU #27
06 South Carolina #20
06 Michigan #26
06 Notre Dame #29
07 Miss State #26
07 Clemson #29
13 Baylor #28
13 Iowa #29
you have to look at pre-tourney rankings, not final ones.
for example in 2013, baylor was #38 and Iowa was #34 going into the tournament
Makes sense. I don't care about it that much to do that.
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yeah it's a lot of work
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yeah it's a lot of work
Plus the weekly rank doesn't start until 2011, so you can't even find it for seasons before then.
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I'm gonna assume the huge hole mocat just blew into the 2013 contenders applies to the others and call this potential 'cat accomplishment unprecedented.
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will this be the anti-TitleTown?
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It was common in the early to mid 00s, but only 2 since 07.
P5 kp30nts:
02 South Carolina #20
04 FSU #27
06 South Carolina #20
06 Michigan #26
06 Notre Dame #29
07 Miss State #26
07 Clemson #29
13 Baylor #28
13 Iowa #29
I think a lot of it has to do with conference strength. The big 12 appears to big strong enough to allow this to happen.
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will this be the anti-TitleTown?
Accomplishments is accomplishments.
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so the goal should be "The highest KemPom ranking for an NIT team in college basketball history"
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make that catchy
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Trim needs to put on KSU PR hat for that
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we tried cutting it close today, but by god we're doing it
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it's easy to win your two easiest games and lose your hardest. the true test will be if they can play to the kenpom when the odds are close to fity:fity.
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What has to happen tonight (?)?
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close loss (i think?)
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i wish we didn't have to play this game. a close loss will be good for either team, and i wish both teams could for get one. it's a home game for tech so it's not quite as bad for them to win as it would be for kstate. let's just keep it close and get it over with.
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let's just keep it close and get it over with
The Word
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Is this really happening?
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Lmao yes it is
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Poor oscar
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grats, sys. you earned it.
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Wow we are in the catbird seat now
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Oscar nearly blew it with that technical
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let's just keep it close and get it over with
The Word
I watched the 2nd half... I think #oscar reads this thread.
:buh-bye:
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Holy crap, that 3 at the buzzer!
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sys' dreams do come true.
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amazing :love:
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When I realized what this game ending could mean towards this goal, I rewound and recorded what I could. Because I could only go back to where the overrun started, it's saved on my dvr as SC Top Plays of the Year, which is perfect.
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:love:
http://kenpom.com/
http://bracketmatrix.com/
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i wasn't able to watch the game, what a treat to check the scores and see that they managed to pull it out. go cats.
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quietly, the cows may have crept into the best position of anyone. sitting at 34th, they're a few points off of 30, but at 0-4, they can afford to pick up points by winning games, they don't have to rely so heavily on close losses.
kstate, tech and tcu are all at 2-2 and 28th, 30th and 32nd respectively. what a conference.
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if brad beats us to it in his first year, i don't even
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Damn. Sorry guys.
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Is this a real thing where people hope we don't make the tourney?
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Sdk I wish you would have found this last week, would have been epic.
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Is this a real thing where people hope we don't make the tourney?
yes. also tech, tcu, the cows and anyone else that has a chance at it.
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Sdk I wish you would have found this last week, would have been epic.
I dont. I'm already plenty ashamed of myself. I don't need any more guilt to lug around.
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Is this a real thing where people hope we don't make the tourney?
yes. also tech, tcu, the cows and anyone else that has a chance at it.
If KSU is on the bubble, would you rather them make it in or this 30 no tourney?
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kp30nt.
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Sdk I wish you would have found this last week, would have been epic.
I dont. I'm already plenty ashamed of myself. I don't need any more guilt to lug around.
We've all slept since then. #new day
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Sdk I wish you would have found this last week, would have been epic.
I dont. I'm already plenty ashamed of myself. I don't need any more guilt to lug around.
We've all slept since then. #new day
Thank you. :cheers:
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http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-01-12/college-basketball-ncaa-tournament-selection-process-involves (http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-01-12/college-basketball-ncaa-tournament-selection-process-involves)
The NCAA is exploring the use of KenPom, BPI, and Sagarin ratings in the selection process as early as next season.
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Is this a real thing where people hope we don't make the tourney?
yes. also tech, tcu, the cows and anyone else that has a chance at it.
If KSU is on the bubble, would you rather them make it in or this 30 no tourney?
Depends on the heat of the seat. If oscar is safe AF, tourney. If oscar has any need to succeed, eff that guy, #teamsys
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we're only favored to lose by one, this is an unwinnable situation (kenpom 27 problems, i know).
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Is this a real thing where people hope we don't make the tourney?
yes. also tech, tcu, the cows and anyone else that has a chance at it.
If KSU is on the bubble, would you rather them make it in or this 30 no tourney?
Depends on the heat of the seat. If oscar is safe AF, tourney. If oscar has any need to succeed, eff that guy, #teamsys
I'm in favor of having a different coach. Not in favor of not making the tourney. Tourney appearance should never be enough.
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we're only favored to lose by one, this is an unwinnable situation (kenpom 27 problems, i know).
Cancel this game.
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we're only favored to lose by one, this is an unwinnable situation (kenpom 27 problems, i know).
You are thinking about it backwards. Win by 1000. Lose small predict wins close.
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You are thinking about it backwards. Win by 1000. Lose small predict wins close.
i don't want to build up a bunch of big wins and have to rely on bad losses down the stretch to balance them out. we're already at 27th, at worse, we can just hold position. it's more important to make sure we don't slip into the tournament.
if we need to, we can run up the mov against the poorer teams, but we don't have enough room to play around with winning games against the top 3 teams.
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Cancel this game.
i wish we could cancel the home games against ku and wvu too. it's all risk, no reward.
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major swing of emotions the last couple weeks
prior to AFH: burn it down
prior to OU: oh?
prior to Tech: LFG
after Tech: burn it down, lose every game so we can get rid of oscar
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Cancel this game.
i wish we could cancel the home games against ku and wvu too. it's all risk, no reward.
If god is reading this thread, he (or she!) will rain down ice on all 3 games.
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Here's a ranking of my rooting interests:
1-321: KP351-KP30, tourney
322-352: KP30-KP1, tourney
353: KP351-KP30, no tourney
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this is the first game where it seemed like we want it more than the players do and that's not a good feeling.
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gave up at the end :frown:
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I think kp will be pretty forgiving. Might even move up a couple spots.
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31 ksu
32 tcu
33 cows
34 tech
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31 ksu
32 tcu
33 cows
34 tech
Two teams are not going to make the the dance.
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i mean i know i said it was a no win situation from the start, but i still can't stop thinking about how they let the mol get out of hand in the last minute.
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the cdubs made us let down our guard
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I'm pretty excited for this 31 (2-3) vs 34 (0-5) matchup
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I'm pretty excited for this 31 (2-3) vs 34 (0-5) matchup
Chat? Thinking if I should get a 'cut today, or if we'd even need one for a game of this magnitude.
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won't be able to chat tonight, will be watching tho
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won't be able to chat tonight, will be watching tho
You're taking food from sergio's kids' moufs.
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i've already mentioned this in another thread, but this game is a can't lose situation for the cats. either we get a win and give our kenpom a nudge back below without adding an impressive win to the old resume or we get to pad our loss total without taking much of hit on the kenpom. i'd rather see us get the loss and build up a little margin of safety before we play dangerous home games against wvu and ku, but either result can be viewed positively.
as long as we don't give up some stupid big mol or something, we're golden tonight.
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close enough to be ok?
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#27
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:thumbs:
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so with the cats up to 27th, and the prediction now at 9-9, it's a glass half full/half empty dilemma. what it really means is we're right back on the tightrope, the fulcrum if you prefer. there's no room to let west virginia out of manhattan without a win, if we have to lose by more than we'd like, then we just have to bite the bullet and take the mol hit.
isu 23rd, tcu 32nd, tech 33rd. it's a dog fight in the middle with everyone but tcu predicted to hit 9-9. tcu at an 8-10 prediction. the cows slip to 39th, ou moves into the fringe of the picture all the way back at 62nd. with 6-12 and 5-13 predictions respectively, they both have room to absorb excess wins on their way up.
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so with the cats up to 27th, and the prediction now at 9-9, it's a glass half full/half empty dilemma. what it really means is we're right back on the tightrope, the fulcrum if you prefer. there's no room to let west virginia out of manhattan without a win, if we have to lose by more than we'd like, then we just have to bite the bullet and take the mol hit.
isu 23rd, tcu 32nd, tech 33rd. it's a dog fight in the middle with everyone but tcu predicted to hit 9-9. tcu at an 8-10 prediction. the cows slip to 39th, ou moves into the fringe of the picture all the way back at 62nd. with 6-12 and 5-13 predictions respectively, they both have room to absorb excess wins on their way up.
I asked a #kp30nt question to Kellis and he answered what a time to be alive sys http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article127671819.html
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk
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Haha. Nice!
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i appreciate you, gregks1027.
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well hello there, mr. oklahoma state cows.
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sorry not sorry sys
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(https://media.giphy.com/media/4q0WNCNZUlxNC/giphy.gif)
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#Fkp30nt
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there's no way to paint a happy face on this debacle, this was a crushing blow. kstate's kp30nt hopes may not be dead, but they're teetering on the wrong side of the fulcrum. there's no room for another win like this and we'll probably need to steal an unexpected loss or two somewhere along the way to have a chance. if there's any solace from today's games, it was in the cows' triumphant return to the kp30nt spotlight. after a week of frittering away chances, the cows beat their projection by 23 points and catapulted back into the driver's seat. tech takes the other side of the cows' good fortune, tumbling well back on the leader board. ou failed to capitalize on their post-wvu bounce and is dropped from consideration pending further developments.
isu - 24th, 10-8
ksu - 26th, 10-8
osu - 29th, 7-11
tcu - 33rd, 8-10
tech - 42nd, 7-11
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there's no way to paint a happy face on this debacle, this was a crushing blow. kstate's kp30nt hopes may not be dead, but they're teetering on the wrong side of the fulcrum. there's no room for another win like this and we'll probably need to steal an unexpected loss or two somewhere along the way to have a chance. if there's any solace from today's games, it was in the cows' triumphant return to the kp30nt spotlight. after a week of frittering away chances, the cows beat their projection by 23 points and catapulted back into the driver's seat. tech takes the other side of the cows' good fortune, tumbling well back on the leader board. ou failed to capitalize on their post-wvu bounce and is dropped from consideration pending further developments.
I Stand behind all 8-10 get in, knowing ou could eff me. So let's talk wager.
isu - 24th, 10-8
ksu - 26th, 10-8
osu - 29th, 7-11
tcu - 33rd, 8-10
tech - 42nd, 7-11
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I Stand behind all 8-10 get in, knowing ou could eff me. So let's talk wager.
let's do it. cash, charity or board cred?
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I Stand behind all 8-10 get in, knowing ou could eff me. So let's talk wager.
let's do it. cash, charity or board cred?
Charity.
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i can think of a good one
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I bet every 8-10 Big 12 gets in the big dance.
so, i take the opposite side (at least one 8-10 big 12 does not get in). if there are no 8-10 teams, it's proof that fattyfest'17 is not favored in the eyes of our lord.
loser donates $100?
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I bet every 8-10 Big 12 gets in the big dance.
so, i take the opposite side (at least one 8-10 big 12 does not get in). if there are no 8-10 teams, it's proof that fattyfest'17 is not favored in the eyes of our lord.
loser donates $100?
Deal.
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:cheers:
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well, well, well. guess who's 2-6 and number 27th in the world?
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it's mr. osu the cows!
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sys, any chance the hangover from saturday has subsided and you can share some positive thoughts on the kp30ntcats' outlook?
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m-n's site gives them about a 25% chance of finishing 8-10 or worse. no mathing, just guessing, i'd cut that in half for missing the tourney and staying below 30, so somewhere around 12.5%.
it's not zero.
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it's not zero.
:ksu:
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it helps. not enough, but it helps. 27th, 9-9 predicto. looking up at our overlords, the cows.
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pretty sexy tail on this thing rn
25 isu
26 frank
27 oscar
28 cows
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tenn is at 42 too, somehow. those sec teams don't have a chance, though.
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tenn is at 42 too, somehow. those sec teams don't have a chance, though.
Yeah.
http://www.fanragsports.com/cbb/sec-still-acting-like-a-mid-major/
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tenn is at 42 too, somehow. those sec teams don't have a chance, though.
no round robin + no home court advantage are too much for tons of money + good to great local recruiting to overcome I guess. I will admit the prep school culture might have hurt SEC and BE schools the most.
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actually, maybe they do have a chance. not as good a chance as big 12 teams, but with the unbalanced schedules in the sec, you have to look at each team. dumbstick (41st) prolly has the best schedule. lotta pressure to run up the score in those home games against sub kp 50 teams though.
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I say we barely beat Tenn, and then Barely lose to TCU at home.
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This is gut-check time, no? Need to bomb the crap out of TCU and then immediately string together 3 close losses. That would get us close so we can let one of these kp30ntcats be a hero at the end.
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This is gut-check time, no? Need to bomb the crap out of TCU and then immediately string together 3 close losses. That would get us close so we can let one of these kp30ntcats be a hero at the end.
that would be ideal. these are the games that separate the pretenders from the contenders.
pretty big game for the cows tonight as well. you'd like to see them run up the score, but those fuckers are already at 2-6, 22nd. they can throw it in cruise control, honestly.
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why does a kenpom 22nd team go 2-6? it's because of games like this. the cows didn't want to go get a two point win in norman tonight, but you can't win every game by 20 and you can't lose every game by one. it's a long season and sometimes the ball doesn't bounce your way. smart teams build a cushion when the cushion building's easy.
cows stay at 22nd, 3-6, predicto stays at 8-10.
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why does a kenpom 22nd team go 2-6? it's because of games like this. the cows didn't want to go get a two point win in norman tonight, but you can't win every game by 20 and you can't lose every game by one. it's a long season and sometimes the ball doesn't bounce your way. smart teams build a cushion when the cushion building's easy.
cows stay at 22nd, 3-6, predicto stays at 8-10.
Why do you people enjoy scrambling for the scraps? Where's your pride?
KState basketball used to be a proud, accomplished program that eschewed scraps for glory. We went to the NCAA tournament every year. We went deep some years.
What has happened to you people?
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i'm quite proud, ptolemy, if that's what you're getting at.
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i think you forgot to @kstatembb?
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:emawkid:
https://twitter.com/DScottFritchen/status/826536944108703746
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:emawkid:
https://twitter.com/DScottFritchen/status/826536944108703746
I'd guess it probably is.
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well it's pretty great that he used the term "dominate"
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xavier sneed: amazing in every way
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When it gets deeper into what I like to call gut-check time, it'll be good to update the caption to that pic w/Sneed describing other IMPORTANT things they need to do to achieve kp30nt.
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i appreciate his enthusiasm, but they need a one point loss more. they've got to steal a loss somewhere, and i'd rather they do it sooner rather than later.
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I thought we had to beat the crap out of tcu? Hell, maybe he's talking about 2 different teams and we don't play tcu tonight or tomorrow or whenever it is.
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I thought we had to beat the crap out of tcu?
it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but they mumped up against wvu and they need to balance that out somewhere.
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Life as a kp30nt fan...
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what were franks numbers last year? if we make the TOURN a ment and our only good win is wvu @ home ill be kinda pissed
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almost perfectly executed
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30!
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We'll be >40 within 2 weeks.
sys, your dream is about to end.
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we will defy your faithless prediction, royals. the cows have proven it is possible; the cats will equal their feat.
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Don't try to bring the rest of us down, _EMO.
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we will defy your faithless prediction, royals. the cows have proven it is possible; the cats will equal their feat.
I'm pretty sure the Cats have a better shot at losing out than matching the cows win streak the rest of the season.
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I'm pretty sure the Cats have a better shot at losing out than matching the cows win streak the rest of the season.
the cows' winning streak would be meaningless if they hadn't gone 0-6 to start. it's where you end up that counts, royals, it doesn't matter how you get there.
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every big 12 basketball fan knows it's hard to win on the road. the less mentioned corollary, that it's hard to lose at home, was kstate's challenge last night and the cats came through. ever since the wvu debacle, fans have been questioning where we would make it up. last night the cats found a way. the doubting thomases and naysaying toms will waggle a finger at the points kstate has been needlessly giving away in the last few minutes of recent games and sniff that 29th leaves little room to wiggle along the tightrope.
let the haters hate, the important thing is that it's the second day of february and we're kenpom 29 and have an 8-10 predicto. we're back on track.
the upcoming big 3 roadies are chances to push higher with low mol's and if you want to circle a game on your calender, the feb 15 matchup with isu is probably the most important remaining game. i'm not sure if there's anything we can lay down on the committee's table that would make it easier for them to overlook the wvu win than an isu sweep.
1. cows 24th, 8-10. all hail king the cows.
2. cats 29th, 8-10. push to 4-9, worry about the movs to end the season.
3. isu 27th, 9-9. probably need to steal a loss somewhere.
4. tcu 35th, 8-10. hard to steal a loss and move up the kp.
5. tech 43rd, 7-11. room to take a win, but way off pace.
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:ksu:
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when they write the history of the big 12, will they laugh that so many teams in the two thousand and seventeenth year of our lord dared to dream so boldly? at midweek, multiple teams seemed well positioned to kp30nt. as we stand today, it appears that no team will achieve the impossible. saturday was a bloodbath. perhaps the easiest way to describe the damage - on thursday, tcu was the third best positioned team. today they're comfortably in first, despite having actually damaged their chances on saturday. while kstate fans can rightly lament their own fallen dreams, no team has abused kp30nt like the former king cows. in two short weeks, the cows have moved from a seemingly secure 1-6, 29th to an untenable 4-6, 20th, 9-9 prediction.
while each team bears responsibility for their own actions, it was the so-called big three that let the big 12 down. kp30nt always depended on a group of elites soaking up the wins. without elite teams, kp30nt becomes impossible for any big 12 team.
1. tcu 32nd, 8-10. can they get to 8-10 without beating ku, wvu, bu, kstate or the cows?
2. tech 42nd, 7-11. 42nd isn't as far back as it seems, tech can argue for the number 1 spot.
3. cats 28th, 9-9. ku, wvu, isu & osu are now all must loses.
4. cows 20th, 9-9. :cry:
5. isu 26th, 10-8. there's just not enough losses on the schedule.
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3. cats 28th, 9-9. ku, wvu, isu & osu are now all must loses.
This thing is probably mumped if we're relying on losing to isu.
But man, if they can get to osu in the fOOD unscathed, for kp30nt and a host of other reasons, I better see some heroes in the full cow costumes at that game.
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3. cats 28th, 9-9. ku, wvu, isu & osu are now all must loses.
This thing is probably mumped if we're relying on losing to isu.
But man, if they can get to osu in the fOOD unscathed, for kp30nt and a host of other reasons, I better see some heroes in the full cow costumes at that game.
Still alive!
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there was no midweek update this week, so there's a little more ground to cover. tcu went 1-1, losing the one they needed to at baylor, but they let the mol get away from them a little. baylor helped out the cows as well, letting them go 1-1. the cats needed two losses and got them both although they too struggled a bit with the mol. tech dropped a couple of games by a point each, normally exactly what you want; however, with their kenpom already on the fringe, they'd have been better served with a high mov win in one of those. isu stole a loss at texas, but couldn't keep the momentum going in a home win over ou.
a week where everyone did just enough to keep their hats in the ring and not a bit more.
1. tcu 37th, 8-10. they retain the lead, but falling to 37th puts them on the edge.
2. tech 40th, 6-12. that gaudy loss total, but they need to make their kenpom move soon.
3. cows 21st, 9-9. the loser of wed's game @ tcu will probably have the top spot. the return of king cows?
4. cats 28th, 9-9. the midweek isu game may be an elimination game.
5. isu 26th, 10-8. a lot of loseable games left, but they need to lose almost all of them.
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Cats are tournament bound.
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Cats are tournament bound.
I hope you're right.
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these last six are a nightmare
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a nightmare is an opportunity spelled backwards.
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Gut check time.
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oscar's job may be at stake.
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oscar's job may be at stake.
that's off the table. he can coach these last handful of games unencumbered.
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oscar's job may be at stake.
:woot:
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May be = maybe? :dunno:
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I've often wondered about that. I know not.
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what a group of bullshit. as soon as a conference appears to have figured out the system, they change the system.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ncaa-is-modernizing-the-way-it-picks-march-madness-teams/?ex_cid=story-twitter
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we're just a magnet for 28th. these last five have me :ohno:
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the cats, for all practical purposes, eliminated isu in their midweek game. technically, isu could still lose out or something, but it's time to let hope die for the 'clones. the cows slipped further off the throne with a win over tcu, who is now experiencing kenpom rank issues. tech joins kstate as the midweek's big winner, continuing their slow climb back towards kp30 with a nice mov over baylor.
cats and tech up, cows and tcu down, clones out.
1. tech 37th, 7-11. just five games left, still a lot of ground to cover.
2. cats 28th, 8-10. the cats would love to slip to 7-11, if they do, the crown is theirs.
3. cows 20th, 9-9. not looking good, but a well-timed loss or two could still right the ship.
4. tcu 40th, 8-10. last week's baylor debacle continues to haunt, it's a long way from 40 to kp30.
5. isu 26th, 10-8. goodbye (prolly) 4eva, isu.
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Stopping reading after 20st.
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sorry. i copy and paste a lot for these.
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Just making a silly. I actually read it all.
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if they can get to osu in the fOOD unscathed, for kp30nt and a host of other reasons, I better see some heroes in the full cow costumes at that game.
what a prophecy.
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if they can get to osu in the fOOD unscathed, for kp30nt and a host of other reasons, I better see some heroes in the full cow costumes at that game.
what a prophecy.
Self-fulfilling to an extent.
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Also, our guy's only rocking the head. Willie the Wildcat style, I guess.
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Greg the Wildcow.
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I didn't realize how much of a joke kenpom was
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the cats move into first place following the weekend games, but it's more what other teams didn't do than what the cats did. a loss to ut would have moved kstate into a very strong position. they didn't get that loss. the cows were presented with a similar opportunity against ou. they did not take advantage. tech, needing to rocket up the kenpoms, gave up nine points of mol in a second overtime and left themselves little better coming out of the weekend than they were going in. tcu is all but mathematically eliminated from the regular season kp30. they can, perhaps, hold out hope for a big 12 tourney assisted kp30nt.
cats and cows up, tech down, tcu out.
1. cats 28th, 8-10. wednesday cats and cows, man. it's big.
2. cows 20th, 9-9. four loseable games remain, they need to lose three.
3. tech 36th, 7-11. they need to outscore the projection by about 25 points over the remaining games.
4. tcu 42nd, 8-10. goodbye (prolly) 4eva, tcu.
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crap! we dropped way more than i thought we would. we're gonna have to watch our mols and movs in these last three.
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my word, did not think this would be the one to drop us off that ~28 spot
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crap! we dropped way more than i thought we would. we're gonna have to watch our mols and movs in these last three.
You got too cocky
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crap! we dropped way more than i thought we would. we're gonna have to watch our mols and movs in these last three.
I don't think we are going to have to worry about the movs going forward
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i did. :frown:
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This kenpom is a fickle beast
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I told you we needed to stop moo'n towards the end.
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think back to february 5th, the cats had just let a road loss slip through their fingers at baylor and the haters were crowing. kstate needed to lose every big game through the end of february to give themselves a chance and with three of those games at home, kstate kp30nt fans were despairing. take a moment to savor the moment, kp30nt enthusiasts. what a run. three games to go, so close yet so far.
among other teams, the cows were among the teams the cats have left by the wayside, and now teeter on the brink. tech has let some movs turn into mols and some small mols turn into big mols and now finds itself on ground little firmer than where the cows stand.
1. cats 30th, 8-10. try to lose two and risk slipping below 30th? or aim for 2-1 with fingers crossed on selection sunday? this is the essence of kp30nt.
2. tech 35th, 6-12. only the surprising magnitude of kstate's kenpom move after the cows game provides hope.
3. cows 20th, 10-8. the cows need to lose out. and hope.
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One game at a time, sys.
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i can taste it, trim. that's how close we are.
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:drool:
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that's a dish i can get behind
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-i think the cows have screwed themselves out of kp30nt. they are also a very bad #28 in RPI, almost guaranteeing to be left out of kp30nt
-TTU went a little overboard with the losing requirements of kp30nt and are pretty much out (also #102 in RPI)
-KSU is right in the sweetspot: #30 in kenpom and #62 in RPI
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oscar weber, you pathetic, goddamned little piece of crap. kstate players, you pathetic, goddamned little pieces of crap.
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below tech. holy rough ridin' crap, we came in below tech.
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below tech. holy rough ridin' crap, we came in below tech.
what about kenpom 40 / tourney? Possible?
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what about kenpom 40 / tourney? Possible?
sure it's possible, but that's boring as eff so who gives a crap.
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what about kenpom 40 / tourney? Possible?
sure it's possible, but that's boring as eff so who gives a crap.
well, yeah it would actually suck really bad and I would hate it. But does that happen much?
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it happens all the time.
i guess you prolly mean non auto invites. i'd have to do some research, but i don't think that's uncommon either.
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we finished 45 in 2014. Can't imagine the loss to UK hurt us much.
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hmmmm...
maybe just rooting for Jank at this point so I can settle in for the long townie play.
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Devastating. At least we still control our own destiny for a wednesday berth (I think), but can you trust these people to do anything right?
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TCU is about to get the unholy crap destroyed out of them
But is there a number large enough to salvage kp30nt?
probably about 25 over the predictions net in the last two games. depends on what other teams do as well, of course.
How about getting the 25 in one shot at TCU and losing by 1 to Tech in the fOOD? Beacon of light?
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i just don't believe in them anymore, trim. they don't have it in them.
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So we need to beat tech by 24 points to have a shot at this thing?
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we finished 45 in 2014. Can't imagine the loss to UK hurt us much.
Losing to the national champion runner up was humiliating, and hurt us plenty
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So we need to beat tech by 24 points to have a shot at this thing?
Probably, then we'll have Baylor, ISU, or WVU in Kansas City.
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i'm a take the regular season kp30nt (which is impossible) first, then worry about the postseason included kp30nt (which is also pretty much impossible).
maybe if we somehow end up playing wvu or something. i don't think it's possible if we play isu.
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this really is an incredibly tough mission
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this really is an incredibly tough mission
well it is if you go lose to ou by 30 points.
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maybe oscar's office also reads gE?
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I bet every 8-10 Big 12 gets in the big dance.
so, i take the opposite side (at least one 8-10 big 12 does not get in). if there are no 8-10 teams, it's proof that fattyfest'17 is not favored in the eyes of our lord.
loser donates $100?
Deal.
Our guy bubbles is favor of fattyfest.
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#34
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A 1 point loss would make things really interesting.
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#34
Fan, tell me what you think about the possibility of getting in the NCAA? I want to believe we will get in.
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We are in.
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#34
Fan, tell me what you think about the possibility of getting in the NCAA? I want to believe we will get in.
I think right now its a decent chance we're a First 4 team, but there are a handful of teams we'll be battling with. Win Thursday over Baylor and we're likely a 10 seed and off the First 4 line.
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A 1 point loss would make things really interesting.
no, it's impossible. even with today. they'd need to beat the kenpom prediction by like 20 or something. i guess it's not technically impossible if the 30-32 teams all lose by 15, or if all of kstate's noncon opponents win by 10 or something but really it's impossible.
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Better hope of a big win and poor performance by the selection committee.
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It's not over until Sunday night.
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Up to 33 today.
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Up to 33 today.
Up to 32.
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still 1.2 points out of 30th, which is all that matters.
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will #31 losing to #3 by 25pts move the needle at all? i know nothing of the math specifics on this
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A spawn of EmDiggy and sys would be perfect right now.
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will #31 losing to #3 by 25pts move the needle at all? i know nothing of the math specifics on this
nope!
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just crumbled at the end. good effort though to leave it until the death
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They're gonna fail at both prongs of this thing.
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Up to 33 today.
Up to 32.
Up to 30.
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:surprised:
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the good news is we can lose by like a million and not move at all. the bad news is it's already too late
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Who would have to get injured tonight for the tournament schedulemakers to bump us out, a la dropping Cincy from a #1 when Kenyon got injured?
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A close loss tonight and an upset or two in the AAC or A10 tournaments and this thing is not out of reach
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the good news is we can lose by like a million and not move at all. the bad news is it's already too late
We can still miss the tourney, don't give up hope
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It's in the schedulemakers' hands now.
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bumped us up to 28th :excited:
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oscar will have so many stats to point to when we miss the tourney again this year, and sys will be sitting at home just smiling and nodding his head.
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Is it a lawn orgy if the grass is fake?
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i guess, if there are still some bid thieves that can steal this thing for us.
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i guess, if there are still some bid thieves that can steal this thing for us.
KSU could be top 30 no NCAA. But more interesting if they play super well in the NIT they could end up being oscar's bet Kenpom KSU team. Same could be said for the NCAA.
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i don't think that's more interesting.
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There's just no margin for error in the kp30nt game.
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There's just no margin for error in the kp30nt game.
we gave it a run, though. no one can say we didn't.
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Idiots
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we were the last team in, mir! if just one more team had stolen a bid somewhere, we would have done it.
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Idiots
Thank you. It is tiresome reading "these fan's" persistent postings of bad intentions directed at the team and school. It's difficult for me to grant any credibility to any postings they make, based on the last couple of months of this.
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Could be an interesting ethical debate on all this in a few days.
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we were the last team in, mir! if just one more team had stolen a bid somewhere, we would have done it.
We aren't in. That's what they call it a play-in
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If we win the national championship as a result of winning all of our remaining games, that means we're in.
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like all things rare and beautiful, people never understood kp30nt.
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Clemson was this year's champion.
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Clemson was this year's champion.
i would argue that we came much closer than clemson did.
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tough sledding in the new era of the ncaat
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http://www.macon.com/sports/college/university-of-georgia/bulldogs-beat/uga-basketball/article138104403.html
Appears.Kenpom ranking and wins over top 50 teams got us in
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KSU could be top 30 no NCAA. But more interesting if they play super well in the NIT they could end up being oscar's bet Kenpom KSU team. Same could be said for the NCAA.
i didn't realize that tcu actually made it to kp30nt last year. it doesn't count, of course. using nit wins to boost your final kp score is against the rules. still, a nice achievement for them.
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tcu has a chance to do it for real this year.
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Can we do a bizarro world kp30nt? Maybe like a top 4 seed / no kp top 30 (t4snkp30)?
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I seriously doubt that anyone outside of the top 20, or so, of the NET will be getting a top 4 seed. Anyone in the top 20 of the net will be firmly entrenched in the kenpom top 30.
Also I'd be willing to bet that there have been A LOT of teams outside of the top 30 of kempom have been top 4 seeds. Kempom and the RPI disagreed, quite a bit.
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Man, the next 3 games in the big 12 are going to define how the conference shapes out. We play Baylor this Saturday then Iowa State next week then Iowa State and Baylor play the game after that. While the top 3 best each other up, KU plays TCU, OSU, and WVU... they will probably win all 3 of those.
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While the top 3 best each other up, KU plays TCU, OSU, and WVU... they will probably win all 3 of those.
Doubt it. It certainly won't be easy for them, if they do win all three.
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we could win the b12 and finish outside the kp top 25
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More like kendud.
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Flood Aggie at 13 is increds
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Serious question: I don’t “get” stuff like Ken Pom, RPI, etc. Iowa State is a complete dumpster fire but even after last night’s loss is sitting at 18 per KP. We’re at 25. Texas, which barely has a winning record and is in the bottom half of the conference, sits at 26. What does that mean? Is KP measuring something different that is maybe meaningful in a different way?
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Serious question: I don’t “get” stuff like Ken Pom, RPI, etc. Iowa State is a complete dumpster fire but even after last night’s loss is sitting at 18 per KP. We’re at 25. Texas, which barely has a winning record and is in the bottom half of the conference, sits at 26. What does that mean? Is KP measuring something different that is maybe meaningful in a different way?
you're focusing too much on W-L records. it's more a predictive ranking based on offensive & defensive efficiencies. basically ISU should have a better record than they do (they rank 304 out of 353 in "luck"), and we should have a worse record than we do (#28 luckiest team).
you can look through ISU's schedule and see a ton of blowout victories and close losses
you can look through our schedule and see hardly any blowout victories, and double digit losses to marquette, texas, a&m, iowa st, and kansas
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we're not good at anything offensively except not turning the ball over and not getting our crap swatted
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but which team has the higher grit factor?
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our offense is ranked #106 in kenpom (worst of kp top 25 teams). the second worst offense in the kp top 25 is wisconsin (#43).
:sdeek:
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Serious question: I don’t “get” stuff like Ken Pom, RPI, etc. Iowa State is a complete dumpster fire but even after last night’s loss is sitting at 18 per KP. We’re at 25. Texas, which barely has a winning record and is in the bottom half of the conference, sits at 26. What does that mean? Is KP measuring something different that is maybe meaningful in a different way?
you're focusing too much on W-L records. it's more a predictive ranking based on offensive & defensive efficiencies. basically ISU should have a better record than they do (they rank 304 out of 353 in "luck"), and we should have a worse record than we do (#28 luckiest team).
you can look through ISU's schedule and see a ton of blowout victories and close losses
you can look through our schedule and see hardly any blowout victories, and double digit losses to marquette, texas, a&m, iowa st, and kansas
I appreciate this explanation. It makes sense - to a point. But over the course of an entire season you have to ask whether “luck” is really the factor, right? After playing about 30 games, including an 18 game conference schedule where everyone plays each other twice, I don’t think anyone can seriously contend that K-State, Texas, and Iowa State are comparable teams - we just lucky. Can they?
The Cats could still flub this weekend or the B12T and if that’s the case then I guess the models bear out, but assuming the Cats beat OU and at least make it to the semis - it’s gonna feel awfully shafty to be seeded comparably to ISU and Texas based on a predictive model like NET.
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we're kind of the basketball equivalent of an otherwise mediocre baseball team that for whatever reason is really good at hitting with runners in scoring position.
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How much do those efficiencies get skewed by a couple of games against, say, Tulsa and aTm? I used to feel pretty comfortable with these rating systems but this year throws me off. Is there any consideration for throwing out outliers?
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we're kind of the basketball equivalent of an otherwise mediocre baseball team that for whatever reason is really good at hitting with runners in scoring position.
Are we the 2014 Royals?
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we're kind of the basketball equivalent of an otherwise mediocre baseball team that for whatever reason is really good at hitting with runners in scoring position.
Are we the 2014 Royals?
what if the 2018 cats were the 2014 royals :surprised:
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we're kind of the basketball equivalent of an otherwise mediocre baseball team that for whatever reason is really good at hitting with runners in scoring position.
So our stats don't look good except for the only stat that matters.
I'm a big proponent of predictive computer models. We use them in lending to great effect. Statistically they perform better than manual underwriting. So maybe a few years of the tournament will support the NET (although the advantages from higher seeding will make this tricky to evaluate).
But if there is a significant disparity between NET and conference record/standings, the committee ought to lean more heavily toward the record. Otherwise the regular season becomes purely a numbers game that devalues results. This is why the NCAA ditched the RPI, which currently ranks shitty ol' KU #1 because of their scheduling schemes. That's asinine. At this point Iowa State and Texas don't deserve a seed commensurate with K-State, and vice versa.
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yeah but hitting w/ RISP is extremely hard to predict and salvy popped out to kung fu panda :frown:
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“Luck” is a really funny thing to include in a computer algorithm.
“Hey Ken, this ranking system seems weird. Some of the top teams consistently struggle to beat even middle teams.”
“Oh well that’s because their luck factor is very low. Need to pump those luck numbers up and they’d be at the top of the conference.”
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What they should do is change “luck” to “heart” and count it as a major asset.
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“Luck” is a really funny thing to include in a computer algorithm.
“Hey Ken, this ranking system seems weird. Some of the top teams consistently struggle to beat even middle teams.”
“Oh well that’s because their luck factor is very low. Need to pump those luck numbers up and they’d be at the top of the conference.”
No it's not a factor in their ranking, it's just like a leftover number to quantify how much a team's efficiency doesn't match their w-l %
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I get that it’s not a part of the ranking formula. It’s just funny to me that they act like it’s another variable in a statistical model instead of calling it what it basically is: a rate of error.
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It’s like a meteorologist saying they have a mathematical system to predict the weather and every time it’s wrong they just call it “luck” instead of thinking, hmm maybe I need to rethink how I’m weighing these variables.
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Maybe find another thread to ramble in?
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I’ll stop once there is another actual KP30NT post ITT.
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I get that it’s not a part of the ranking formula. It’s just funny to me that they act like it’s another variable in a statistical model instead of calling it what it basically is: a rate of error.
It's not a variable tho
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we're not good at anything offensively except not turning the ball over and not getting our crap swatted
3PT% in Big 12 play though... :D
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I don't think our fans really understand how bad our offense was in the OOC against a pretty meh schedule. We did one really good thing with our scheduling by only including 3 >200 teams. However, we only ended up with 1 <50 team. Then we proceeded to play a bunch of those teams close, got one ok-ish win over Mizzou, got drilled by the only good team we played, and lost to a pair of mediocre (at best) teams. It was a really great schedule for an RPI metric, but no so much for any metric that includes efficiency. I think this team more than made up for it in the league, but the major reason any efficiency metric is in the mid to high 20s is because of our dreadful OOC offense.
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I get that it’s not a part of the ranking formula. It’s just funny to me that they act like it’s another variable in a statistical model instead of calling it what it basically is: a rate of error.
It's not a variable tho
A fatalist. I like it.
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I get that it’s not a part of the ranking formula. It’s just funny to me that they act like it’s another variable in a statistical model instead of calling it what it basically is: a rate of error.
It's not a variable tho
A fatalist. I like it.
It's an output not an input
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Yes, like a rate of error.
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Yes, like a rate of error.
yes. there are currently 184 teams with positive "luck" and 169 with negative "luck".
i guess if you wanted to come up with a catastrophic (™) rating system, you could just rank the teams based on their W-L % and then you wouldn't need a "luck" factor! :dunno:
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If I were even remotely a stats person I’d devise a system that actually took the “luck” factor into account and self-adjusted to raise the rankings for high luck teams (those consistently outperforming their expectations based on the model) and low luck teams (those consistently underperforming expectations).
To just leave it out there like a :dunno: seems lazy.
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i really don't think you would!
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Of course the ideal would be to introduce more variables and attempt to assign the right weight to each in order to get the “luck” factor as low as possible for every team. I just have no idea where you’d start to do that.
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I don't think our fans really understand how bad our offense was in the OOC against a pretty meh schedule. We did one really good thing with our scheduling by only including 3 >200 teams. However, we only ended up with 1 <50 team. Then we proceeded to play a bunch of those teams close, got one ok-ish win over Mizzou, got drilled by the only good team we played, and lost to a pair of mediocre (at best) teams. It was a really great schedule for an RPI metric, but no so much for any metric that includes efficiency. I think this team more than made up for it in the league, but the major reason any efficiency metric is in the mid to high 20s is because of our dreadful OOC offense.
So that's the only point I'm making. K-State is not a Top 10 Team. We don't deserve a 1 or 2 seed under any circumstance, or even 3 seed just based upon finishing 14-4 in conference. But anybody looking at this team in conference play the last few months would slate us in the Top 20, yet we're currently ranked 26 in the NET, below dumpster fire Iowa State, based upon games played in December. That's idiotic.
There is a big difference between seeds 3, 4, and 5 in the NCAAs. The 3 has a massive advantage. I'd almost prefer the 6 over the 4/5 line. Winning the Big 12 and a couple of games in the B12T should by all rights get us a 3, but I'm not so sure it will based on NET.
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If I were even remotely a stats person I’d devise a system that actually took the “luck” factor into account and self-adjusted to raise the rankings for high luck teams (those consistently outperforming their expectations based on the model) and low luck teams (those consistently underperforming expectations).
To just leave it out there like a :dunno: seems lazy.
This would make it less predictive of future results
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Would it? Presumably, an exceptionally high luck factor means the model has already consistently failed to predict future results as to that team. Or am I mistaking what the number really represents?
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my goodness
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There is a big difference between seeds 3, 4, and 5 in the NCAAs.
Is there though? I think several bracketologists have us as a 4. I was just thinking this morning that I'm not sure it makes a HUGE difference (not a zero difference though) whether we climb a seed or fall a seed. We still avoid a 1 or 2 until the Sweet 16 (at the earliest). After that, I'd argue matchups are far more important than seeding, which is luck of the draw.
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There is a big difference between seeds 3, 4, and 5 in the NCAAs.
Is there though? I think several bracketologists have us as a 4. I was just thinking this morning that I'm not sure it makes a HUGE difference (not a zero difference though) whether we climb a seed or fall a seed. We still avoid a 1 or 2 until the Sweet 16 (at the earliest). After that, I'd argue matchups are far more important than seeding, which is luck of the draw.
Pretty big historical difference between 1s and 2s though.
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There is a big difference between seeds 3, 4, and 5 in the NCAAs.
Is there though? I think several bracketologists have us as a 4. I was just thinking this morning that I'm not sure it makes a HUGE difference (not a zero difference though) whether we climb a seed or fall a seed. We still avoid a 1 or 2 until the Sweet 16 (at the earliest). After that, I'd argue matchups are far more important than seeding, which is luck of the draw.
Pretty big historical difference between 1s and 2s though.
We have no shot of even making a 2 though.
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Difference between being a 3 and a 4 is the difference of matching the 1 seed line or the 2 seed line in the S16. The 1 seed is about 25% more likely to make the S16 than the 2 seed.
https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/
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Difference between being a 3 and a 4 is the difference of matching the 1 seed line or the 2 seed line in the S16. The 1 seed is about 25% more likely to make the S16 than the 2 seed.
https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/
Sure, notice I didn't say there was no difference, I just wouldn't say it's a huge difference. Once you get to the Sweet 16, chances are, every game will be very tough...at least for a team that isn't of the truly elite of the given year.
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Just have the dreaded 1-seed potential opponent in your region lose their first-round game.
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you guys remember the last time oscar won the b12? we went 14-4, got a 4 seed and got to play at sprint center, and then lost to 13 seed lasalle in the first round, wow
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I still get pissed off thinking about that game.
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you guys remember the last time oscar won the b12? we went 14-4, got a 4 seed and got to play at sprint center, and then lost to 13 seed lasalle in the first round, wow
Was not a pleasurable experience live
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I watched it in Vegas and basically everyone in the sportsbook had bet la salle on the money line
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If I had to choose between a 5 or 6, I’d most likely take the 6. If I had to choose between a 4 or 6, I still might take the 6 based upon matchups. Let’s just win the B12T and get a 3.
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Welp never mind. Latest bracketology says we're a 4, so I guess Joe isn't looking purely at NET, either. That's right where I'd put us at this point.
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Congrats Clemson!!! :surprised:
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And Texas!
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Pretty embarrassing for kenpom if we're being honest. What's worst is the first team out is 81st in kenpom.
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Yeah well we already knew the system was broken thanks to my top notch analysis ITT.
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congratulations to texas and clemson. rarified air. wow.
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'grats to boomer sooner