http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-20/obamacare-investors-bet-billions-the-aca-will-succeed
Maybe I'm not understanding this, but are the two choices (1) Obamacare will be repealed outright, or (2) at least some aspects of Obamacare will remain, in some form? I'd bet heavily on the latter, too, but how does that indicate "success?" How is "success" measured?
By the end of open enrollment for this year (supposedly at end of March, but I'm betting Obama will unilaterally extend that deadline, too), I predict there will be about 5.5 million enrollees in an exchange policy, about 4 million of which will be real (the rest being duplicates or other "enrollments" that were never actually purchased by paying the premium). This will be a little over half the number that the CBO predicted the exchanges would need to be fiscally viable.
But it will actually be worse, because of that 4 million, probably only about 20% of enrollees will be the key "under 30" demographic - while the CBO predicted the exchanges need about twice that number for the exchanges to remain viable. Furthermore, I'm guessing that a good 75% of that 4 million already had insurance before, so that means that, best case scenario, Obamacare just gave those people a slightly cheaper, more comprehensive plan at taxpayer expense. In many cases however (most?), these policies are actually more "expensive" due to the ridiculous deductibles of the "bronze" and "silver" level plans many of these folks are buying.
So, we'll use the "risk corridors" and other Obamacare slush funds to funnel tax dollars to bail out the insurers, for a while.
Meanwhile, over 5 million people had their private policies cancelled (err, "not renewed") due to Obamacare, and Obama has unilaterally pushed back the employer mandate back another year, past the elections. I wonder why?
Numerous hospitals and doctors are refusing Obamacare policies. I wonder why?
So "success?"