If we only lose one game this season we're more likely than not to get into the playoff. How many 1 loss teams have ever been left out? I can think of 2 -- TCU and Baylor back in '14.
Fact is, there aren't very many 1 loss p5 teams out there. And even if there happen to be more than 4 one loss teams this year, it's weird to assume that we'd be the ones snubbed.
If we go 12-1, we'll probably be in the playoff.