Go 2-2 on the road and win our 3 home games...... and we are at worst a 6 seed. Can't stress how important of a factor the Big 12 being the #1 conf is. Every year the committee is very fond of teams that are in a great conf, have a good record in that conf, and have several wins vs the other good teams in that conf. 12-6 with 5 maybe even 6 wins vs top 50 teams in the Big12. And our current SOS is a very solid 21
Do the above and its very unlikely we are the 4/5 in the Big 12 tourney. Our win over Ku will get us to the 3 seed (maybe 2).
At this point, I cant see us going 10-8, so I think 11-7 would be our worst record. And with that, I don't think we would be on the 8/9 seed game come March. 5 seed will be our ceiling with a 6 or 7 seed being the more likely outcome