https://www.politico.eu/article/locked-down-europe-how-long-can-afford-this/
"It is impossible to live — even in self-isolation — and to cure people, if we do not continue the economic activity that, quite simply, permits us to live in this country,” he said while chairing an "economy task force" dealing with the outbreak.
Macron is also the most prominent voice to warn people that a vaccine is not imminent, and probably won't arrive until the end of 2021. The message is clear: It won't be possible for people to stay at home until then.
"It’s a very difficult balancing act," said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at EurasiaGroup, a political risk consultancy firm. "It’s not clear that any government has a credible exit strategy."
The Imperial College London study offers another approach: A phase of alternating lockdowns and relaxations over a total period of two years, during which governments relax social distancing measures for about a month, every three months or so.
Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris, said he expects “a moment more of strict confinement, gradually back to a functional economy, and perhaps unfortunately later in the year we’d have to go back to social confinement until we get that vaccine.”
Researchers warned that any periods of respite would be short. “Social distancing — plus school and university closure, if used — need to be in force for the majority of the two years of the simulation,” the study's authors wrote.
This leaves governments with the same dilemma: They will need to prepare their populations for either a year or more under lockdown, or for massive deaths in the coming months. Neither is an easy sell.
Not one person has said we are locking people up in their homes until a vaccine. The whole goal right now is to give us time. Time to handle more sick people, time to build up testing, time to develop a strategy for getting people back out, time to figure this virus details out, time to find therapeutic options.
How much time? What is the exit strategy?
The point also is that to get all of the benefit of social distancing, you need to do it for 12-24 months, as stated in the Imperial College report. Otherwise, you're still going to potentially have high death tolls.
I feel like this has been covered 100 times but Justwin I just want to hear you say it - is the 12-24 months cited in the Imperial College report based on "doing nothing else" or does that account for innovations such as increased availability of testing, enhanced strategies for containment, and development of treatment/vaccines etc?
Exactly. He is using the model as a sword to attack any early sheltering initiatives when obviously that's not the intent.
to answer his question about exit strategies. I think everybody wish they knew a better one. That's another thing time is giving us, be able to look at data and get more precise plans going. Look at how countries further along go with releasing people, like South Korea. Does that work? Everybody knows we can't do this for 18 months, quit being a dumbass.
My guess? For the US alone? We get our defenses (testing, hospital capacity, PPE) ramped up in the next weeks, we watch data, the nation wide 15 day plan (it's not worth much honestly) is extended to April 20'ish, then local communities turn on and off social distancing measures as data dictates but those measures can be more targeted as we get more testing (faster too) and can test people and isolate them. Bans to/from countries blowing up continue and we fever check everybody coming in internationally. Pro / college fall sports are played but maybe to empty stadiums.
That guess is absent of any sort of breakthrough treatment that helps quell the virus.