Here's how I see it for the rest of the way:
1 more loss in conference, 1 or 0 conf tourney win = 2 seed
2 more losses in conference, 1 or 0 conf tourney win = 3 seed
3 more losses in conference, 1 conf tourney win = 3 seed
3 more losses in conference, 0 conf tourney win = 4 seed
anything more than 3 losses the rest of the way in conference and just pray for a 5 seed.