The Official Bracketology Thread

[wetwillie]

League imploded beyond top 4

[KSNimrod]

Are Oklahoma and Iowa State really regarded as better than the Cats this year?  What am I missing?  I thought we had an advantage in Quad 1 wins or what not?  But I'm also a basketball moron so...

[ChiComCat]

Are Oklahoma and Iowa State really regarded as better than the Cats this year?  What am I missing?  I thought we had an advantage in Quad 1 wins or what not?  But I'm also a basketball moron so...

Both had much better non-con results than us. 

[dean_ksu]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Next Four Out
Kansas State

A win on Saturday and we are likely showing up in the bracketology next week!   This team is climbing up the ladder and getting ready for a Final Four run!

[WildcatNkilt]

This used to be such a fun thread.

[MakeItRain]

Are Oklahoma and Iowa State really regarded as better than the Cats this year?  What am I missing?  I thought we had an advantage in Quad 1 wins or what not?  But I'm also a basketball moron so...

Both had much better non-con results than us.

They performed better against weaker opponents. Not all quad 1s are created equal.

[WildcatNation]

Are Oklahoma and Iowa State really regarded as better than the Cats this year?  What am I missing?  I thought we had an advantage in Quad 1 wins or what not?  But I'm also a basketball moron so...

Both had much better non-con results than us.

The non-con overall doesn't really matter though does it? The only ones that matter are the wins in Q1/Q2 and the losses you have in Q4 and SoS, (which the Cats are better in both). No way does OU/ISU have really any better of resume than the Cats.

[CHONGS]

Are Oklahoma and Iowa State really regarded as better than the Cats this year?  What am I missing?  I thought we had an advantage in Quad 1 wins or what not?  But I'm also a basketball moron so...

Both had much better non-con results than us.

The non-con overall doesn't really matter though does it? The only ones that matter are the wins in Q1/Q2 and the losses you have in Q4 and SoS, (which the Cats are better in both). No way does OU/ISU have really any better of resume than the Cats.

They have better kenpom ranking.

[stunted]

the schedule is set up perfectly to take them down and jump them.

[BostonPancake]

We don't even show up in Jerry Palm's bracket.

[MakeItRain]

We don't even show up in Jerry Palm's bracket.

The entire big 12 will be an interesting case study as to what the committee values this year. Our computer numbers are shitty, especially the net, but we're going to end up with a bunch of quad 1 wins. In the past the committee has placed value on the ability to win games against tournament teams.

[stunted]

In the past the committee has placed value on the ability to win games against tournament teams.

if we become "the exception" for these kind of things again, i will be very angry

[BIG APPLE CAT]

stunted do you honestly think that if we stay on our current trajectory, that we'd be "screwed" if we get left out of the tournament? Do you honestly think this is a team deserving an at large tourney bid?

[stunted]

Do you honestly think we don’t at 9-9?

[DQ12]

I think if we take care of business (3-2 the rest of the way) we'll be in.  We'd also be wise to win a game in KC regardless. 

Failing that, we'll probably be left out and wouldn't really have much of an argument.

[MakeItRain]

In the past the committee has placed value on the ability to win games against tournament teams.

if we become "the exception" for these kind of things again, i will be very angry

There is no scenario, if K-State gets left out of the tournament, that we would be considered an exception. Iowa State, WVU, and K-State have just lost too many games.

[BIG APPLE CAT]

Do you honestly think we don’t at 9-9?

at 9-9 i do think we are in, but i also wouldn't think we got screwed if we got left out. As of today we are 5-9 in Q1 games and 1-2 in Q2 games. If we finish 9-9 then mostly likely that means we finish 6-11 in Q1 games and 3-2 in Q2 games. To our credit, iowa st is the only other team that has played 14 Q1 games, but i don't think a team should be rewarded just because they played the most Q1 games if they are only winning 1 in 3 of those games. To me that is the resume of a team that is achieving extreme levels of mediocrity and i don't see how a team that mediocre can argue that they should be a lock for the tourney. 

[wetwillie]

If we win 9 conference games and get left out we burn down the NCAA offices

[stunted]

it's not winning 20+ games, going 10-6 and 9-7 and making the NIT levels of screwed, but it's definitely a solid 6.5 on the screwed scale.

i also think what the team is like now should be a lot more heavily weighted than the beginning when we were figuring crap out, had covid, etc. i don't know how much they factor that in, but it's very logical, and if they stupidly don't factor that in and you want to take that side, then 

[bigtisme]

If we finish 9-9 our overall record is 17-13 right?  If we lose our first game of the big 12 tourney that puts us at 17-14 on the season.  That doesn't scream lock in the tourney to me. 

I get the 0-4 stretch we played without any players or coaches might factor into things, but 17-14 could easily be on the wrong side of the bubble. 

[ChiComCat]

it's not winning 20+ games, going 10-6 and 9-7 and making the NIT levels of screwed, but it's definitely a solid 6.5 on the screwed scale.

i also think what the team is like now should be a lot more heavily weighted than the beginning when we were figuring crap out, had covid, etc. i don't know how much they factor that in, but it's very logical, and if they stupidly don't factor that in and you want to take that side, then 

I don't know how easily they can factor Covid in for all 80 or so teams they consider.  Maybe K-State's is glaring enough that it factors in or maybe they look closer at the teams on the bubble than they do worrying about a team going from a 6 to a 5 seed, but it seems pretty challenging to try and decide what games to discredit for everyone.

[catastrophe]

In the past the committee has placed value on the ability to win games against tournament teams.

if we become "the exception" for these kind of things again, i will be very angry

There is no scenario, if K-State gets left out of the tournament, that we would be considered an exception. Iowa State, WVU, and K-State have just lost too many games.

It’s been touched on, but I definitely think that COVID protocols should push the committee to place significantly more emphasis on quality wins as opposed to “bad” losses. I’m not exactly sure of KSU’s situation but just as a hypothetical it seems unfair to effectively credit a team for “avoiding” a loss by having too many players out due to COVID vs. a team that played and lost a game extremely undermanned.

[CHONGS]

Rutgers man

[MakeItRain]

In the past the committee has placed value on the ability to win games against tournament teams.

if we become "the exception" for these kind of things again, i will be very angry

There is no scenario, if K-State gets left out of the tournament, that we would be considered an exception. Iowa State, WVU, and K-State have just lost too many games.

It’s been touched on, but I definitely think that COVID protocols should push the committee to place significantly more emphasis on quality wins as opposed to “bad” losses. I’m not exactly sure of KSU’s situation but just as a hypothetical it seems unfair to effectively credit a team for “avoiding” a loss by having too many players out due to COVID vs. a team that played and lost a game extremely undermanned.

This seemingly wasn't a factor last year, it certainly won't this year. I also don't think COVID had a huge effect on the early to mid season results. The game I can think of where we had the most issues Oklahoma had three or four guys out too, including the Grove brothers. It was really just three games and who knows if we would have won any of them.

[DreamWeaver69]

10 seed!

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-projecting-2023-march-madness-men-field