That’s true enough, but as long is we are in total speculative hypothetical land it is pretty easy to tweak the parameters enough to get the result you are arguing for.
I bet a non-trivial amount of money that joe Biden is better than 81% to be the nominee, it went down and I bet more, so I’m very unconvinced that there is anything standing in his way, and since we are adding in variables, the complete and total lack of any campaign and the likely extreme focus on coronavirus for the foreseeable future is a pretty big argument in my favor. But Biden was a shitty candidate and his very public and repeated sexual harassment of women was a completely foreseeable problem.