man, so close.

[MakeItRain]

I think the team will be better next year because it's hard to imagine them being worse. They should be a bubble team.

I feel like I've heard this before

[Rage Against the McKee]

Oh, I thought this was the thread where we were making up excuses for the team and being obnoxiously optimistic. Sorry, guys.

[Cire]

I guess I don't see any room for some kind of 6 game turnaround next year.   Has anyone in the last 4 years just grown leaps and bounds under oscar?

We could be .500 in the league next year and the big 12 could suck ass.

Is that improvement?

Winning 1 tourney game should be a minimum.

[sys]

they could be better, they could be worse.  probably not too far in either direction.

[slobber]

How many close wins do we have this year? Close would be what? Maybe within 5 pts in the last 2 minutes? What if we had lost those games, too!


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[sys]

4 close wins, 5 close losses.



5 point mov or ot.  looking at scores in the final minutes is too much work.

[kso_FAN]

4 close wins, 5 close losses.



5 point mov or ot.  looking at scores in the final minutes is too much work.

Posted in the Big 12 stats, but our ave. difference in ppp for conference play is -0.034, which does indicate a high number of close games. We've distanced ourselves from 9th and 10th (OSU and TCU) and are closer to the 5th-7th group. BU is at +0.019, UT is at +0.017, and Tech at -0.014, especially for being 4/5 games worse. In the end, winning still matters though, and 4-11 is bad conference record regardless.

[TownieCat]

Final scores can be deceiving. At first glance our 10 point loss to UNC was not "close", but we led that game with 3 min left.

[sys]

4 close wins, 5 close losses.

Posted in the Big 12 stats, but our ave. difference in ppp for conference play is -0.034, which does indicate a high number of close games.

the close wins were all noncon.

[kso_FAN]

the close wins were all noncon.

Yes.

I was just saying that at 4-11 in the league, you would probably expect our ave ppp differential to be closer to OSU/TCU than BU/UT/Tech.

I mean, your thread title isn't wrong.

[sys]

it's an odd split that they won basically all the close noncon and lost basically all the close cons.  the con games are more important to fans (as well as more recent) so people remember them more - contributing to the idea that the team has been exceptionally unlucky.

but it's also true that they've lost more than would be predicted by their off eff/def effs. - kenpom has them as the 322nd least lucky team.  of course it's also true that their top 15 defense is greatly influenced by 3%, a stat that has little predictive power.  it's easy to fuel a lot of different narratives using stats, if one desires.

[#LIFE]

But it does prove how good of a job Weber did his first year, considering the talent ISU has is better than what we had in 2012-2013. Heck, the talent Shaka inherited is better than what we had, and he is supposed to be the second coming. Weber took a 5th Place group with no one on the roster that will sniff the NBA and grabbed a share. Pretty impressive, whether people will admit it or not.

Why are we getting worse if oscar is so good at coaching up a crappy roster 

[kso_FAN]

it's an odd split that they won basically all the close noncon and lost basically all the close cons.  the con games are more important to fans (as well as more recent) so people remember them more - contributing to the idea that the team has been exceptionally unlucky.

but it's also true that they've lost more than would be predicted by their off eff/def effs. - kenpom has them as the 322nd least lucky team.  of course it's also true that their top 15 defense is greatly influenced by 3%, a stat that has little predictive power.  it's easy to fuel a lot of different narratives using stats, if one desires.

TO%/Steal% is pretty good too.

We've also played a really strong offensive SOS, and a better offensive SOS than defensive SOS.

Also, oscar teams have a knack for having good 3PT% defenses, which is weird.

[sys]

TO%/Steal% is pretty good too.

yes, but to rate and 3% are really the only two categories they are good at.  it's a very odd recipe for an elite defense.

[The Whale]

I guess I don't see any room for some kind of 6 game turnaround next year.   Has anyone in the last 4 years just grown leaps and bounds under oscar?

We could be .500 in the league next year and the big 12 could suck ass.

Is that improvement?

Winning 1 tourney game should be a minimum.

It's going to be good enough for a contract extension.

[Skipper44]

I guess I don't see any room for some kind of 6 game turnaround next year.   Has anyone in the last 4 years just grown leaps and bounds under oscar?

We could be .500 in the league next year and the big 12 could suck ass.

Is that improvement?

Winning 1 tourney game should be a minimum.

My best guess at a road map for big improvement next year is based on the time oscar pulled his ass out of the fire at Illinois by going 24-10 (11-7) in 08-09 after going 16-19 (5-13) the year before. A large part was due to two sophomore post players (Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale) combining for 20+ pts & 10+ rebs per game after being non factors as freshman.  With DJammer and Claws back we don't need that much production by our mysbigs but doubling Big Meat's 6&4 conference averages seems like a good minimum.

Also, as _BBB has mentioned oscar's win/3pt% correlation, the 3pt% improved from .319 to .350 in 08-09. A big part of that was the Brucing of Rodney Alexander, who shot .193 on 57 attempts and Chet going from .291 to .382.  So next years' cats obviously lose Hopper's .290 on 100 or so attempts and hopefully Westicles can get his .231 to somewhere near the .413 he shot as a freshman.  Claws shooting in the mid 30s is likely required to get to mid pack in the conference as well.

The sad fact is all the above can happen in what will almost assuredly be a weaker Big 12 and the big payoff will be a 5/12 loss to a mid or low major   

[Cire]

Doubt an extension, you can't fire a guy winning a tourney game but sweet 16 is after that


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[kso_FAN]

Doubt an extension, you can't fire a guy winning a tourney game but sweet 16 is after that


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oscar's contract goes through 2019. If he has any modicum of success next year, especially an NCAA trip (not even a win), Currie will add another year (probably at least 2) to his contract.

[Cire]

No way


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[kso_FAN]

You know it will happen.

[Gooch]

Doubt an extension, you can't fire a guy winning a tourney game but sweet 16 is after that


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oscar's contract goes through 2019. If he has any modicum of success next year, especially an NCAA trip (not even a win), Currie will add another year (probably at least 2) to his contract.

Why? It's not like that loser is going to go get another job.

[sonofdaxjones]

Doubt an extension, you can't fire a guy winning a tourney game but sweet 16 is after that


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oscar's contract goes through 2019. If he has any modicum of success next year, especially an NCAA trip (not even a win), Currie will add another year (probably at least 2) to his contract.

If that happens Currie should be fired.

[CHONGS]

Hell he's likely to get an extension for making the NIT.

[kso_FAN]

If you are going to keep a coach, you don't let his contract get down to 2 years remaining and probably shouldn't let it get to 3 very often. I mean if Currie decides oscar should be here, an extension should come after next season. Or you move on.